portfolio volatility adjustment by canadian mutual funds

29
PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS* HARBANS L. DHINGRA INTRODUCTION The impressive growth of mutual funds during the last two decades suggests that this investment medium enjoys the popular support and confidence of the invest- ing public. Recently numerous researchers (1 -7,9-11) have empirically evaluated mutual fund performance and they have presented many conflicting results. This may, perhaps, be due to the fact that mutual funds have a very wide spectrum of investment objectives, and thereby they pursue different policies and methods of investment; consequently they may be expected to produce different portfolio performance results. Mutual funds which have set forth capital appreciation or growth as a primary objective are expected to be more aggressive or risk taking in their investments compared with those to whom stability of income is more important. Since there are many other different types of mutual funds which have mixes of different degrees of capital appreciation and stability of income as their objectives, these funds facilitate the placing of investment funds in different risk classes. Usually the investor, through the published objectives of mutual funds in their prospectuses, periodical reports to shareholders, or sales promotion literature, tries to find out which of them are likely to place him in his risk preference class. After considering the data on past performance of these funds and some other factors which may have some bearing on the final choice, the investor selects the specific fund(s1 for his investment purposes. As one of the important functions served by a published statement of objectives of a mutual fund is to inform the investment community of the type of performance being sought (or being avoided) by its management, and since each mutual fund would like to strengthen the confidence of its clients as to its ability to perform according to its objectives, the managements of these funds promise a stability in their stated risk classes. Indeed, for this promised service they charge their clientele various kinds of fees. This study empirically explores whether, by and large, Canadian mutual funds have been successful in achieving their stated objectives. In other words, the study *The author is Professor of Finance and Management Science at the Lkiversity of Saskatchewan. m e project was funded by the research gmnts from the University of Saskatchewan. The author acknowledges the computational assistance o f Dan Hoodicoff. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Conference of the American Statistical Association, August, I9 77. (Paperreceived February 1978, revised July 1978) Jownal of Business Finance t Accounting 5,4(1978) 305

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Page 1: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS*

HARBANS L. DHINGRA

INTRODUCTION

The impressive growth of mutual funds during the last two decades suggests that this investment medium enjoys the popular support and confidence of the invest- ing public. Recently numerous researchers (1 -7,9-11) have empirically evaluated mutual fund performance and they have presented many conflicting results. This may, perhaps, be due to the fact that mutual funds have a very wide spectrum of investment objectives, and thereby they pursue different policies and methods of investment; consequently they may be expected to produce different portfolio performance results.

Mutual funds which have set forth capital appreciation or growth as a primary objective are expected to be more aggressive or risk taking in their investments compared with those to whom stability of income is more important. Since there are many other different types of mutual funds which have mixes of different degrees of capital appreciation and stability of income as their objectives, these funds facilitate the placing of investment funds in different risk classes. Usually the investor, through the published objectives of mutual funds in their prospectuses, periodical reports to shareholders, or sales promotion literature, tries to find out which of them are likely to place him in his risk preference class. After considering the data on past performance of these funds and some other factors which may have some bearing on the final choice, the investor selects the specific fund(s1 for his investment purposes.

As one of the important functions served by a published statement of objectives of a mutual fund is to inform the investment community of the type of performance being sought (or being avoided) by its management, and since each mutual fund would like to strengthen the confidence of its clients as to its ability to perform according to its objectives, the managements of these funds promise a stability in their stated risk classes. Indeed, for this promised service they charge their clientele various kinds of fees.

This study empirically explores whether, by and large, Canadian mutual funds have been successful in achieving their stated objectives. In other words, the study *The author is Professor of Finance and Management Science at the Lkiversity of Saskatchewan. m e project was funded by the research gmnts from the University of Saskatchewan. The author acknowledges the computational assistance of Dan Hoodicoff. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Annual Conference of the American Statistical Association, August, I9 77. (Paperreceived February 1978, revised July 1978)

Jownal of Business Finance t Accounting 5,4(1978) 305

Page 2: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

investigates whether the portfolio composition of Canadian mutual funds is consistent with their committed risk posture, and whether the degree of risk is stable over time.

INVESTMENT RISK

Although the notion of risk is central in every investment decision as well as in portfolio analysis, there still exists a controversy about what constitutes the risk and how it should be quantified. However, in financial literature, risk is most often equated with dispersion in returns. Despite the many statistical methods available for measuring dispersion, the one that has proved to be most useful for both analytical and empirical purposes is the variance or its square root - the standard deviation of returns. The larger the variance (or standard deviation) of returns around the expected value of a security, the larger is the investor’s risk in that security. Sharpe [ 121 has proposed the following market model which dichotomises the total risk of a security into “systematic” and “unsystematic” risks:

where the tilde denotes random variable,

k,, R,,,,, Ci , ,

is the return on the ith security during the jth period, is the return on the market factor during the jth period, is the return on residual factors, other than market, of the ith security during the jth period such that

E(Pi , l ) = 0 V(Zi,j) = V(Ei,k ) = r&,

COV (Zi . j , zi, k) = 0

and

of returns on thc ith security is partitioned into two parts: a,, and pi are the regression coefficients of the ith security. The total variance

V(R,) = V(ai + /3i R, + t i ) = 0; V(R,,) t V(Pi) = Systematic variance + Unsystematic variance.

Systematic risk of a security is dependent upon the market return and is measured by its beta coefficient (the slope of the linear regression eqyation of security return on market return) times the standard deviation of market return. A similar

306 Harbans L. Dhirigra

Page 3: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

model may be applied to returns from a portfolio of securities. As the standard deviation of market returns is common to all securities or portfolios, the beta coefficient is an appropriate measure of systematic risk. Unsystematic risk, also known as diversifiable risk, of a security is the standard deviation (qmm) of its res iual factors Pi, and previous research (6) suggests that this component of total risk can be considerably mitigated by mixing the security with other securities. Thus, as the diversification of a portfolio increases, the only relevant measure of investment risk is the systematic risk, sometimes called undiversifiable risk, market risk, or volatility, measured by the beta coefficient of a portfolio.

Since some investors by temperament are risk takers, whereas others are risk averters, different volatilities of investment funds, therefore, suit the preferences of different investors. Management of cach mutual fund, therefore, decides which particular investor objectives it intends to fulfill, and after publishing its objectives makes an effort to serve the needs of those investors whose risk preferences are aligned with its risk objectives. Thus, there is no u priori basis for calling a given magnitude of portfolio volatility of a mutual fund good or bad.

THE DATA

In order to meet the purposes of this study, a l l those Canadian mutual funds which have at least ten years (1966-75) of data reported in the annual publicat- ion entitled “The Financial Post Survey of Funds” were selected. The sample so selected consisted of 88 funds listed in Appendix A and constitutes 46 percent of the mutual funds listed in the 1976 edition of t h i s publication. For each of the selected funds, annual rates of return for a period of 10 years (1966-75) were obtained and, for some of these funds, annual rates of return also were collected for a period of 15 years (1961-75). The rates of return are based upon net assets per share and have been computed as the following:

where

% =

Vj =

vj- 1 =

4 =

Portfolio Volatili@ Adjustment 307

annual rate of return of the mutual fund for the jth year, the portfolio market value per share of the mutual fund at the end of the jth year,

the portfolio market value per share of the mutual fund at the beginning of the jth year, cash dividends paid per share to the investors during the jthyear.

Page 4: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

The information on investment objectives, yearend composition of portfolios in terms of their common stock investments in various industries, and number of securities within each industry; annual portfolio turn-over in terms of additions of new securities and deletion of old securities; and the yearly market value of assets for the sample funds were also obtained from the Financial Post Survey of Funds. Yearly data were collected for two reasons. Firstly, mutual funds usually do not make substantial changes in their portfolio compositions in order to counterbalance the effect of expected future changes in market returns more often than once a year. Secondly, the Financial Post Survey of Funds provides data on investment funds only on annual basis and there is no other secondary source of such data either on a monthly or quarterly basis.

For some mutual funds, the Financial Post Survey of Funds presents a very imprecise set of objectives, as if the managements of these mutual funds, perhaps for some special reasons such as operational convenience, penetration into a wider market of institutional investors, protection from comparing their actual performance with their stated objectives, etc., had intentionally stated their investment objectives in only broad terms. Considering the reported objectives in various annual issues of the Survey of Funds, all the sample funds were classif- ied in one of the five mutually exclusive categories, namely, (a) growth, (b) growth and income, (c) income and growth, (d) income, and (e) balanced port- folio, arranged in descending order with respect to the expected degree of aggressiveness to investment risk. The objective code for each of the sample mutual funds is listed against the name of the fund in Appendix A.

The Industrial Index' of the Toronto Stock Exchange was taken as a proxy for the market, and annual rates of return on this index were computed for the period 1961-75. Regressions, of the market model form of the annual rates of each mutual fund on the annual rates of return of the Industrial index, were obtained for six overlapping decades (1961-70 to 1966-75).

EMPl R ICAL RESULTS

Of the 88 mutual finds 37 were classified as seeking growth, 13 seeking growth and income with emphasis on growth, 25 seeking income and growth with emphasis on income, 5 seeking income, and the remaining 8 seeking balanced portfolios or income stability. Moreover, of these funds for which data were available for ten years (1966-75), there were 68,61, 56,52, and 44 funds for which the data also were available for 1 1, 12, 13, 14, and 15 years, respectively.

The following Tables 1 ,2 , and 3 provide average values of beta coefficients, variances, and average rates of return of sample funds in each investment objective category for the six overlapping decades, 1961-70 to 1966-75.

308 Harbans L. Dhingra

Page 5: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

A visual inspection of these tables does not suggest any pattern in the relationship between funds objectives (which are arranged in descending order of the degree of aggressiveness) and beta coefficients (measures of systematic risk), variances (measures of total risk), and average returns of the funds. However, during each of the time periods the coefficients of correlation, shown in Table 4, between average returns of funds on the one hand, and variances and beta coefficients of returns on the other, are positive and are statistically significant at the 0.05 level. In other words, the study provides empirical evidence that mutual funds which have consistently higher risks, whether total or systematic, have consistently realized high rates of return.

The funds which emphasize greater capital appreciation rather than a steady flow of income are generally expected to be relatively more aggressive in their invest- ment policies and thereby have a higher degree of risk exposure. This study fails to provide any consistent evidence about this proposition. Perhaps there are some errors in classification of mutual funds in appropriate objective categories, as some of the funds, for the reasons given earlier, have stated their objectives in very broad terms. If the funds are classified in two categories of objectives, namely growth, and income, rather than in five categories, there is less likelihood of a classification error. Tables 5,6, and 7 provide the data on average values of beta coefficients, variances, and average rates of return, respectively, when the funds are classified into two groups of objectives.

Tables 5 and 6 show that for each of the time periods, the average risk levels, both systematic risk and total risk, of mutual funds which have set forth capital appreciation or growth as their primary objective, have always been higher than of those funds which have stability of income as their primary objective. Similarly, Table 7 demonstrates that the average returns of growth oriented funds are considerably higher than the funds which are primarily income oriented.

A two-way analysis of variance was performed to test the null hypothesis of no significant differences between objective groups and time periods with respect to beta coefficients, variances, and average returns. The results are shown in Tables 8 , 9 , and 10. In each of these tables, the computed F-ratios exceed those required at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels of significance to reject the null hypothesis.

An analysis of variance relating to beta coefficients, and variances (i.e., systematic and total risk) suggests that with respect to risk exposure there are not only significant differences between mutual funds pursuing different objectives, but that there also are significant differences between time periods. Thus, the study suggests that, over time, mutual funds do not have a stable level of risk, and perhaps, by design, have changed their risk levels in accordance with changes in market conditions. But, if we compare beta coefficients or variances of the growth seeking funds with those of the income seeking funds, Tables 5 and 6 disclose

Portfolio Volatility Adjustment 309

Page 6: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

AV

ERA

GE

BETA

COEFFICIENTS

___-

9 P

LY

I’cr

iods

1966

-75

1965

-74

1964

-73

1963

-72

1962

-71

1961

7l

J A

v(: r

agc

Gro

wth

0.

5967

1.

0092

0.

7721

0.

9073

0.

9414

1 4

54

I (J

.850

2 G

row

th &

Inc

ome

0.71

90

1.01

12

0.96

03

1.08

33

1.1

340

I .07

51

0.98

37

Inco

me

&G

row

th

0.47

18

0.70

89

0.65

67

0.73

69

0.69

80

0.95

87

r~.6

693

lnco

mc

0.1

363

0.27

41

0.33

91

0.56

58

1 .I 2

09

0.56

01

(~.3

7(~

2

Bala

nced

0.

5774

0.

9723

0.

7144

0.

7889

0.

7890

0.

8255

0.

7671

A

vera

ge

0.55

70

0.89

1 8

0.74

81

0.86

84

0.89

50

0.98

1 5

0.79

76

TAB

LE 2

AVER

AGE

VA

RIA

NC

ES

Peri

ods

Obj

ectiv

es

1966

-75

1965

-74

1964

-73

1963

-72

1962

-71

1961

-70

Ave

rage

Gro

wth

42

2.01

36

0.67

30

6.83

24

2.98

22

5.27

30

6.83

32

5.16

G

row

th &

Inc

ome

499.

72

426.

74

320.

98

258.

80

261 .

I 6

292.

78

356.

57

Inco

me

&G

row

th

184.

75

178.

52

156.

71

134.

92

129.

90

170.

03

162.

11

inco

me

68.2

9 78

.99

108.

80

107.

98

106.

26

102.

37

92.0

8 Ba

lanr

vd

21 1.

71

180.

12

135.

84

126.

98

119.

38

143.

72

154.

58

Ave

rage

32

6.87

29

4.32

24

3.91

19

5.97

18

6.52

23

7.00

25

6.66

Page 7: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 3

AV

ERA

GE

AN

NU

AL

RET

UR

NS

(Per

cent

)

Obj

ectiv

es

Peri

ods

1966-75

1965-74

1964 -73

1963-72

1962-71

1961 -70

Ave

ragc

Gro

wth

G

row

th &

Inc

ome

Inco

me

&G

row

th

Inco

me

Balanced

Ave

rage

4.1911

3.3024

7.8444

10.6341

7.5525

9.6941

6.6607

4.3808

2.8956

6.5600

9.1900

6.51 I

1 7.4500

5.9258

4.0484

3.2219

6.0967

7.8033

6.1038

6.9200

5.4225

4.1200

3.0250

3.8500

4.5167

4.0167

3.4833

3.8238

4.0000

2.8571

6.5714

8.2857

5.7286

6.6500

5.6190

4.1571

3.1496

6.8774

9.0254

6.5606

7.8 I70

5.9459

TAB

LE 4

CO

EFFI

CIE

NTS

OF CORRELATION

BETW

EEN

Perio

d A

vera

ge R

etur

n an

d Variance

Ave

rage

Ret

urn and

Beta

Coe

ffic

ient

1966-75

1965- 74

1964-73

1963-72

1962-71

1961 -70

0.0990

0.1687

0.2754

0.6708

0.5486

0.7393

~ ~

~_

__

__

0.2097

0.0809a

0.1761

0.4155

0.2223

0.5670

1961-75

0.1503

0.2901

'Sig

nific

ant a

t the

Spe

rcen

t lev

el. A

ll o

ther

coef

ficie

nts a

re s

igni

fican

t at t

he I

perc

ent l

evel

.

Page 8: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

2

%

a &

h

h,

TAB

LE 5

AV

ERA

GE

BETA

CO

EFFI

CIEN

TS

2 s? 3

Peri

ods

s' O

bjec

tives

19

66-7

5 19

65-7

4 19

64-7

3 19

63-7

2 19

62-7

1

1961

-70

Ave

ragc

Gro

wth

0.

5784

0.

9293

0.

7774

0.

8937

0.

9073

1.

0338

0.

8247

In

com

e 0.

4303

0.

6822

0.

6018

0.

7393

0.

8305

0.

7592

0.

6557

A

vcra

gc

0.55

67

0.89

18

0.74

81

0.86

84

0.89

50

0.98

50

0.79

76

TAB

LE 6

AV

ERAG

E V

AR

IAN

CES

Peri

ods

0bjc

r.t i

vcc

1966

- 75

1965

-74

1964

-73

1963

-7 2

19

62-7

1 19

61 -7

0 A

vera

gc

GI,

>\\

tll

356.

39

323.

45

266.

25

211.

86

203.

44

264.

53

281.

73

inL

.oiii

c 15

6.55

14

3 34

12

7.73

12

1.27

11

5.44

12

9 94

10

6.45

A

VI' 1 .

I+,

326.

87

294

32

243

91

195

91

186.

52

236

99

256.

66

-_-_

Page 9: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

s TA

BLE

7

AV

ERA

GE

AN

NU

AL

RET

UR

NS

rf 8

Peri

od

b a

Gro

wth

4.

1764

3.

1942

7.

0932

9.

4234

6.

8809

8.

3884

6.

1 35

2 E

Inco

me

4.04

6 1

2.91

82

5.75

50

7.15

50

5.21

50

5.59

44

5.02

06

Obj

cctiv

cs

1966

-75

1965

-74

1964

-73

1963

-72

1962

-71

1961

-70

Avc

ragc

is” A

vera

ge

4.15

71

3.14

96

6.87

44

9.02

54

6.56

06

7.81

70

5.94

59

9 .) TA

BLE

8

AN

ALY

SIS

OF

VA

RIA

NC

E O

F BE

TA C

OEF

FIC

IEN

TS

Sour

ce o

f V

aria

tion

Sum

of S

quar

es

Deg

rees

of

Free

dom

M

ean

Squa

re

F Rat

io

1. 2. 3.

4. (B)

1.

2. 3.

4.

Obj

ectiv

es cl

assif

iied in

5 ca

tego

ries

B

etw

een

obje

ctiv

es

6.47

5 B

etw

een

peri

ods

7.20

1 In

tera

ctio

n 1.

458

Res

idua

l 33

.073

T

otal

48

.672

O

bjec

tives

clas

sifie

d in

2 ca

tego

ries

B

etw

een

obje

ctiv

es

1.52

7 B

etw

een

peri

ods

7.82

8 In

tera

ctio

n 0.

183

Res

idua

l 39

.296

Tot

al

48.6

72

4 5 20

324

353 1 5 5

342

35 3

1.61

9 1.

440

0.07

3 0.

538

1.52

7 1.

566

0.03

7 0.

115

15.8

58

14.1

08

0.71

4

13.2

93

13.6

25

0.31

8

Page 10: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 9

AN

ALY

SIS

OF

VA

RIA

NC

E O

F V

AR

IAN

CES

’’ So

iree o

f V

aria

tion

Sum

of

Squa

res

Deg

rees

of

3 Fr

eedo

m

Mea

n !3

quar

e F

Rat

io

(A)

1.

2.

3.

4. m

1.

2.

3.

4.

Obj

ectiv

es c

lass

ified

in 5

cat

egor

ies

Bet

wee

n ob

ject

ives

2,

484,

95 8.

00

Bet

wee

n pe

riod

s 97

3,58

9.94

In

tera

ctio

n 31

9,67

3.56

R

esid

ual

11,0

04,3

84.0

0 T

otal

14

,771

,575

.00

Obj

ectiv

es cl

assi

fied in

2 ca

tego

ries

Bet

wee

n ob

ject

ives

8a

4,7 2

9.50

B

etw

een

peri

ods

923,

216.

12

Inte

ract

ion

88,1

00.0

0 R

esid

ual

12,8

36,1

87.0

0

‘4 5 20

324

35 3 1 5 5

342

621,

239.

5 19

4,71

7.9

15,9

83.7

33

,964

.1

884,

729.

5 18

4,64

3.2

17,6

20.0

37

,532

.7

18.2

91

5.73

3 0.

471

23.5

72

4.92

0 0.

469

Tot

al

14,7

71,5

75.0

0 35

3

Page 11: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

that both the systematic volatility and the total risk level of the former group are always higher than that of the latter group. In other words, the study reveals that although over time mutual funds have not had stable absolute levels of systematic or total risk, they have maintained fairly stationary relative risk levels.

Having seen that when mutual funds are classified into two broad categories of objectives they maintain their relative risk classes in accordance with the objectives which they profess to undertake, we now pose the question whether or not the portfolio compositions and turnovers of these funds are consistent with these objectives.

It is usually expected’ that mutual funds which emphasize growth rather than stability of income are exposed to relatively higher degrees of risk. This would mean that growth funds are expected to have a relatively higher concentration of their investment funds in securities of high risk industries, and their portfolio turnovers are also expected to be largely confined to these industries. The reverse is expected of the funds which have stability of income as their primary objective. To examine this proposition empirically, data on composition and turnover of portfolios of the sample funds were collected for four years, namely, 1961,1966, 1971, and 1975, from the Financial Post Survey of Funds. Unfortunately, the appropriate information is not available for some of the sample mutual funds cove red.

Like individual securities or portfolios, industries also have their own risk characteristics, and these characteristics may be classified into different risk groups. The total, systematic, and unsystematic risks of industries are measured in the same way as those of securities or portfolios. Using monthly data on rates of return of industry indexes as dependent variable, and monthly rates of return of market index (i.e., Toronto Stock Exchange Industrial Index) as independent variable, simple linear regressions for 18 industries were obtained for four non-overlapping time periods, namely 1956-60,1961-65,1966-70, and 1971-75. Beta coefficients of these industries by period are given in Appendix B. Undertaking one-way analyses of variance of average monthly returns, variances of returns, and beta coefficients with independent variable as time periods, Tables 11-13 suggest that, except for average returns, no significant differences were observed for variances and beta coefficients at the 0.05 level. Thus, the mean rates of return of industries are not stationary over time whereas their risk measures, both total and systematic, are stable over time.

Further, within each time period, as well as for all time periods taken together, one-way analyses of variance of mean returns, variances, and beta coefficients were also undertaken with respect to industries. The analysis’ suggests that, except for beta coefficients, there are no significant differences between industries at the 0.05 level. In other words, the empirical evidence indicates that the industries

Portfolio Volatility Adjustment 315

Page 12: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

0

Q 5 P

9'

sour

ce o

f V

aria

tion

Sum

of S

quar

es

Deg

rees

of

Mea

n F.

Rat

io

3 Fr

eedo

m

Squa

re

ANALYSIS OF VA

RIAN

CE OF AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

RET

UR

NS

% 9 Fa

(A)

1.

2.

3.

4.

(B)

1.

2,. 3.

4.

Obj

ectiv

es c

lass

ified

in 5

cat

egor

ies

Betw

een

obje

ctiv

es

242.

976

Bet

wee

n pe

riod

s 1,

595.

907

Inte

ract

ion

172.

491

Res

idua

l 3,

035.

354

Tot

al

5,04

8.35

2

Obj

ectiv

es c

lass

ified

in 2

cate

gori

es

Betw

een

obje

ctiv

es

95.8

98

Betw

een

peri

ods

1,61

8.38

9 In

tera

ctio

ns

36.3

99

Res

idua

l 3.

31 8.

527

Tot

al

5.04

8.35

2

4 5 20

324

353 1 5 5

342

35 3

60.7

45

319.

1 81

8.

625

9.36

8

95.8

98

323.

618

7.28

0 9.

703

6.48

4 34

.070

0.

921

9.88

3 33

.357

0.

750

Page 13: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

1

AN

ALY

SIS

OF

VA

RIA

NC

E O

F AV

ERAG

E R

ETU

RN

S O

F IN

DU

STR

IES

Sum

of S

quar

es

Deg

rees

of

Free

dom

F. R

atio

Tot

al

17.0

341

58

TAB

LE 1

2

AN

ALY

SIS O

F V

AR

IAN

CE

OF

VA

RIA

NC

ES O

F R

ETU

RN

S O

F IN

DU

STR

IES

Sour

ce o

f V

aria

tion

Sum

of S

quar

es

Deg

rees

of

Free

dom

M

ean

Squa

re

F. R

atio

1.

Bet

wee

n pe

riod

s 4,

837.

75

2.

Res

idua

l 11

4,59

3.31

Tot

al

119,

431.

06

3 55

58

1.61

2.5

8 2,

083.

51

0.77

4

Page 14: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

2

Q

9

TAB

LE 1

3

ANAL

YSIS

OF

VA

RIA

NC

E O

F BE

TA C

OEF

FICI

ENTS

OF

IND

UST

RIE

S

$ El

~ou

rcc u

f V

aria

tion

Sum

of

Squa

res

Deg

rees

of

Mea

n F.

Rat

io

P

Free

dom

Sq

uare

$ 1.

Bct

wee

n pc

riod

s 0.

0114

6 3

0.03

82

0.56

2

3 2.

R

esid

ual

3.73

88

55

0.06

80

b

Tota

l 3.

8534

TAB

LE 1

4 PE

RCEN

T O

F TO

TAL

INVE

STM

ENTS

IN

COM

MON

STO

CKS

OF

DIF

FER

ENT

INDUSTRY RISK C

LASS

ES A

ND

OTH

ER IN

VEST

MEN

TS

Year

s

(Per

cent

ages

) In

dust

ry R

isk C

lass

19

75

1971

19

66

1961

1.

Low

Risk

'2

. M

ediu

m R

isk

3.

Hig

h R

isk

13.5

7 13

.83

9.59

7.

74

17.4

6 23

.43

29.6

0 31

.37

43.1

7 41

.20

47.4

8 46

.19

Tota

l Com

mon

Sto

cks

84.2

0 78

.46

86.6

7 85

.30

Oth

er I

nves

tmen

ts

15.8

0 21

.54

13.3

3 14

.70

Tota

l 10

0.00

10

0.00

10

0.00

10

0.00

N

umbe

r of

fun

ds:

73

47

36

46

Page 15: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

differ ammg themselves with respect to their systematic risk levels but not with respect to their mean returns or total risk.

Using average values of beta coefficients of industries for the four time periods, three risk categories, namely low .risk, medium risk and high risk, were developed with average beta values of less than 0.5, between 0.5 to 1 .O, and more than 1 .O, respectively.

Table. 14 gives industrywise composition of common stock investments of mutual funds for the years 1975,1971,1966, and 1961, and suggests that within a risk class industry, the proportion of their total investments held in common stocks are stable over time; moreover, mutual funds have a relatively high proportion of their investments in high risk industries.

Further, for each of the four years, data on variables such as (i) average proport- ion of investments in common stocks, (ii) average number of securities held, (iii) average number of additions of new securities, (iv) average number of deletions of old securities, (v) average. percent of additions of new securities to total securities held, and (vi) average percent of deletions of old securities to total securities held, were classified industrywise and fundwise in Tables IS to 20 respectively.

A one-way analysis of variance was undertaken for each of these variables to examine whether or not there were significant differences between the funds pursuing different objectives. For each of the above variables, the analysis‘ suggests that there is no significant association between the funds’ objectives and the variable. This suggests that within each industry risk group, both the magnitude of diversification (in terms of securities held and percent of the total common stock investments held) and the portfolio turnover,(in terms of absolute and relative additions and/or deletions of securities) are the same for each fund irrespective of its investment objective. But a visual inspection of the data suggests that within each year these variables generally have high values for high risk industries and low values for low risk industries. An analysis of variance’ of the data has confirmed this observation at the 5 percent level of significance. Further, within each industry risk group, no significant differences were noticed in the average values of these variables from year to year. This suggests that these variables are fairly stationary over time within each industry risk group.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

This study, based upon a sample of 88 Canadian mutual funds, has examined empirically whether over time these funds have been maintaining their risk levels consistent with their published objectives. The data relating to funds’ objectives, returns and risk measures, diversification and turnover of portfolios, etc., relate to

Portfolio Volatiliry Adjustment 319

Page 16: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

h

TAB

LE 1

5

AVER

AGE

PERC

ENT INVESTMENT IN

COM

MON

STOCKS

!?-

9' Ye

am

1975

1971

1966

1961

;;I I

nd

us

tr

y G

ro

up

s

1 2

3 1

2 3

1 2

3 1

2 3

Obj

ectiw

s Pe

rcen

t Inv

estm

ent

A.

1 2 3 4 5 Av

erag

C B.

1 2

Ave

rage

16.13

25.50

45.76

11.53

21.67

36.81

10.13

30.51

45.37

6.74

32.40

41.86

11.14

26.61

39.90

19.63

30.17

42.M)

10.40

19.00

55.25

1.70

27.16

47.78

13.44

31.16

39.24

15.43

20.93

44.43

10.80

24.1

0 56.60

1.75

37.23

31.97

2.30

27.90

64.20

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0 .o

12.80

31.75

33.10

10.47

22.87

43.53

3.00

47.40

41.80

6.85

30.05

43.70

13.57

27.46

43.17

13.82

23.43

41.20

9.59

29.59

47.48

7.74

31.31

46.19

14.21

27.05

43.07

14.6

23.56

40.57

10.25

28.11

47.96

7.89

31.56

46.52

9.30

30.47

43.93

10.47

22.17

43.94

3.00

47.40

41.80

6.15

30.05

43.70

13.57

27.46

43.17

13.12

23.43

41.20

9.59

29.59

47.41

7.74

31.31

46.19

Indu

stry

Gro

ups:

1.

Low

Risk

2.

Med

ium

Ris

k 3.

Hig

hRis

k O

bjec

tives

A.

1. Growth

2. Growth a

nd I

ncom

e 3.

In

com

e and

Growth

4. In

com

e 5.

Balanced

B.

1.

Growth

2. In

com

e

Page 17: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

6

AVER

AGE NU

MBER

OF

SECU

RITI

ES H

ELD

0': fi 3

Year

s 19

75

1971

19

66

1961

In

du

st

ry

G

ro

up

s

b

Q

4 2

1 2

3 1

2 3

1 2

3 1

2 3

r: 3 O

bjec

tives

N

umbe

r of S

ecur

ities

-+ +-

A

1 6.

59

15.6

4 21

.17

6.14

15

.73

26.1

2 4.

94

14.0

5 23

.75

2.67

11

.80

20.0

5 2

10.5

7 30

.71

36.0

0 8.

70

17.1

0 22

.90

6.92

16

.06

16.6

3 3.

76

13.9

0 19

.90

3 6.

57

21.0

0 26

.29

5.91

14

.54

20.7

3 5.

73

14.9

3 21

.00

4.17

14

.63

22.2

5 4

. 200

14.0

0 38

.00

2.00

13

.00

26.0

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 5

10.0

0 26

.75

30.2

5 10

.67

26.6

7 27

.63

5.33

16

.50

23.1

7 5.

00

13.0

0 17

.33

Ave

r=

6.54

21

.63

27.8

4 7.

90

17.4

9 24

.31,

5.

61

15.0

6 22

.56

3.67

12

.95

20.0

4

B 1

6.58

21

.36

27.0

8 7.

60

15.7

5 23

.71

5.73

14

.67

22.5

0 3.

40

12.9

5 20

.46

2 8.

40

24.2

0 31

.85

9.43

26

.42

27.5

7 6.

33

16.5

0 23

.17

5.00

13

.00

17.3

3 Av

erag

e 6.

54

21.6

3 27

.84

7.90

17

.49

24.3

1 5.

61

15.0

6 22

.56

3.67

12

.95

20.0

4

Indu

stry

Gro

upQ

: 1.

Lo

wR

islr

2.

Med

ium

Rirk

3,

Hig

hRhk

O

bjec

tives

A.

1.

Gro

wth

2.

G

row

th an

d ln

wm

e 3.

Inco

me

and

Gro

wth

4.

Income

5.

Eah

ced

B.

1.

Gro

wth

2.

Income

Page 18: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TABL

E 17

iF

AVER

AGE NU

MBER

OF

AD

DIT

ION

S OF

NEW

SEC

URIT

IES

(0 P

--

9

Yea

s 1975

1971

1966

1961

In

du

st

ry

Gr

ou

ps

1 2

3 1

2 3

1 2

3 1

2 3

Obj

ectiv

es

Num

ber o

f A

dditi

ons

A.

1 2 3 4 5 Av

erag

e

9.

1 2 A

vpg

e

3.29

5.00

5.11

3.82

4.09

6.88

3.00

4.06

2.83

6.57

8.71

2.25

3.67

6.56

3.50

7 .00

3.50

6.00

7.50

1.50

2.20

5.60

2.17

5.08

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.00

4.00

0.0

0.0

2.33

5.25

8.75

4.25

5.60

5.00

1.01

3.17

3.00

5.74

7.19

3.07

3.81

6.19

2.65

4.80

3.13

5.84

6.91

2.88

3.56

6.44

2.96

5.05

2.33

5.25

8.75

4.25

4.83

4.86

1.00

3.17

3.00

5.74

4.19

3.07

3.81

6.19

2.62

4.80

8.80

6.00

7.85

0.0

3 .O

7.22

7.78

3.00

7.22

1.75

2.76

4.75

1 .00

3.29

4.63

1 .00

3.00

6.00

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .oo

280

1.67

1.27

2.91

4.37

1.43

2.93

4.118

1 .oo

2.80

1.67

1.27

2.91

4.37

Indu

stry

Gro

ups:

1.

Low

Ris

k 2.

Med

ium

Risk

3.

Hig

hRw

r O

bjec

tives

A

1.

Gro

wth

2.

G

row

thm

dlnc

ome

3. In

com

emdC

row

th

4.

Inco

me

5. B

alan

ced

B 1.

Gro

wth

2

lnco

mc

Page 19: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

8

AVER

AGE

NUM

BER

OF

DELE

TIO

NS O

F O

LD SE

CURI

TIES

Year

s 1975

1971

1966

1961

In

du

st

ry

Gr

ou

ps

I 2

3 1

2 3

I 2

3 I

2 3

Ob

jCC

tiW

N

umbe

r of Deletions

A 1

2.40

4.50

2.11

3.20

5.54

7.00

2.38

6.89

11.80

2.13

4.21

6.05

2 2.25

6.57

8.67

4.14

5.44

9.80

2.86

5.20

5.75

1.50

4.57

4.67

3 1.50

6.00

4.85

2.25

3.57

4.20

1.60

3.33

6.21

3.00

2.00

5.60

4 0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0'

2.00

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5. 0.0

4.67

2.33

2.25

5.60

7.40

1.50

3.67

4.67

1.50

2.17

3.60

Ave

rage

2.15

5.48

4.48

3.16

5.12

6.93

2.15

5.17

8.08

1.93

3.52

5.21

B I

0.0

5.60

4.77

3.33

5.03

7.00

233

5-40

8.52

2.09

3.81

5.61

2 0.0

4.67

2.33

2.25

5.60

6.50

1.50

3.67

4.67

1.50

2.17

3.00

Ave

rage

0.0

5.48

4.48

3.16

5.12

6.93

215

5.17

8.08

1.93

3.52

5.21

Indu

stry

Gro

ups:

1.

Low

Ris

k 2.

-Mtd

ium

-Risk

3.

Hig

hRbk

ob

ject

ivca

A.

1. G

row

th

2. G

row

thm

dInc

ome

3.

Inw

mca

nd

clo

wth

4.

Inco

me

5. Ba

lana

d B.

1. G

row

th

2.

Inco

me.

Page 20: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 1

9

AV

ERA

GE

PER

CEN

T A

DD

ITIO

NS

OF

NEW

SEC

UR

ITIE

S

P-

S'

Yea

rs:

1975

19

71

1966

19

61

In

du

st

ry

Gr

ou

ps

1

2 3

1

2 3

1 2

3 1

2 3

Objectives

Perc

ent A

dditi

ons

A.

1 7.

18

10.3

1 13

.22

7.02

7.

79

14.3

2 8.

63

10.1

3 21

.40

6.90

9.

31

15.4

6 11

.71

2 4.

98

9.51

11

.34

4.63

8.

08

13.9

2 6.

48

14.4

2 3

5.30

10

.16

12.4

5 4.

28

5.60

14

.54

5.67

12

.95

19.1

0 1.

80

5.90

'1

1.60

4 0.

0 0.

0 0.0

0.

0 2.4

0 9.

80

0.0

0 .o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5 2.

83

8.35

12

.20

5.50

7.

60

7.28

2.

30

8.00

6.

98

3.40

9.

92

5.20

A

vera

ge

5.17

9.

70

12.3

8 5.

63

7.32

13

.20

6.48

11

.49

17.4

5 4.

39

8.55

12

.64

B.

1 6.

05

9.98

12

.41

5.65

7.

46

14.2

8 7.

28

12.0

1 18

.84

4.96

8.

31

14.0

4 2

2.83

8.

35

12.2

0 5.

50

6.73

7.

64

2.30

8.

00

6.98

3.

40

9.92

5.

20

Aw

ge

5.

52

9.69

12

.38

5.63

7.

32

13.2

0 6.

48

11.4

9 17

.45

4.39

8.

55

12.6

4

14.3

1 2.

65

7.26

Indu

stry

Gro

ups:

1.

Lo

w Risk

2. M

ediu

m R

isk

3.

Hig

h Ri

rk

Obj

ectiv

es A

. 1.

Gro

wth

2.

Gro

wth

and

Inco

me

3. ln

com

e an

d G

row

th

4.

lnco

me

5. B

akna

d B.

1.

G

row

th

2. In

com

e

Page 21: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

TAB

LE 2

0

AVER

AGE

PERC

ENT

DELE

TIO

NS O

F OLD

SECU

RITI

ES

% 5 8

8

Yea

rs:

1975

19

71

1966

19

61

In

du

st

ry

G

ro

up

s

1 2

3 1

2 3

1 2

3 1

2 3

Obj

ectiv

es

Rra

nt

Del

etio

ns

A.

1 4.

72

9.56

4.

46

6.11

11

.01

16.2

5 6.

31

12.3

4 26

.76

7.21

11

.25

22.3

8 2

2.60

7.

96

6.65

6.

16

10.8

9 21

.27

4.83

10

.13

14.0

6 4.

70

12.5

1 12

.22

3 2.

70

9.56

6.

71

6.10

10

.04

11.3

1 4.

13

6.73

16

.51

5.40

5.

23

12.0

4 4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

4.90

0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0 0.

0

5 0.

0 5.

23

3.23

2.

96

7.06

9.

50

3.15

7.

97

10.5

8 4.

66

6.70

9.

67

Am

age

3.56

8.

56

6.42

6.

16

10.2

0 15

.22

4.99

10

.30

19.0

7 6.

08

9.60

16

.79

B. I

0.0

9.03

6.

88

6.79

10

.74

16.2

7 5.

24

10.6

7 20

.20

6.59

10

.24

18.0

s

Aw

rrge

0.

0 636

6.42

6.

18

10.2

0 15

.22

4.99

10

.30

19.0

7 6.

06

9.60

16

.79

2 0.

0 5.

23

3.23

2.

96

7.06

6.

73

3.15

7.

97

10.5

6 4.

66

6.70

9.

87

Indu

NyG

roup

s:

1. L

owR

isk

2.

Med

lum

Rkk

3.

H

ighR

kk

Obj

ectiv

es A

. 1.

G

row

th

2.

Growth an

d In

com

e 3.

In

com

eand

Gro

wth

4.

Income

5. B

alan

a B.

1.

G

row

th

2.

Inco

me

Page 22: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

the period 1961-75. Correlation and regression analysis, and andysis of variance have been used. In this study the major findings are:

1. When mutual funds were classified into five categories according to their investment objectives, namely, (i) growth, (ii) growth and income, (iii) income and growth, (iv) income, and (v) balanced portfolio, no particular patterns of relationship between the funds’ objectives, and their average returns and risk levels (both total and systematic risk) were observed for the six overlapping ten-year periods. However, when two categories of objectives, namely, (i) growth, and (ii) income were adopted, there were systematic and consistent relationships between the funds’ objectives, and their average returns and risk measures, for each of the time periods.

2. Average returns and risk measures of mutual funds were positively and signif- icantly correlated within each of the time periods as if risk and return of mutual funds always go hand-in-hand.

3. Within each investment objective group, average return and risk level of mutual funds were not stationary over time. But the degree of risk exposure of mutual funds pursuing growth was consistently higher than that of funds which have income as their primary objective.

4. No significant differences were observed between funds pursuing different investment objectives with respect to either their portfolio compositions in terms of investments in different risk class industries, or portfolio turnovers in terms of additions and deletions of securities of different risk class industries.

The implications of these findings are that since growth oriented Canadian mutual funds have average returns and risk levels consistently higher than those of income oriented funds, the funds in general have not only been operating but also have been adjusting portfolio volatilities over time in accordance with their published objectives.

326 Harbans L. Dhingra

Page 23: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

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Page 24: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

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Page 25: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

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Page 26: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

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Page 27: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

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For

est R

odua

s 2

1.07

07

0.97

58

0.82

14

1.08

58

0.98

84

12.P

ipe

Line

s 2

0.93

97

1 ,00

06

0.80

11

1.08

82

0.95

74

13.R

ed E

stat

e 3

1.16

18

NA

NA

N

A

1.16

18

14.S

teel

3

1.14

52

1.24

52

1.17

49

1.36

62

1.23

29

15.T

extil

es &

Clo

thin

g 1

4.13

33

NA

N

A

NA

-0

.133

3 16

.Trm

spor

tatio

n 1

0.01

61

NA

N

A

NA

0.

0161

17

.Tnr

st &

Lopn

3 0.

7959

0.

9736

1.

3010

0.

9533

1.

0060

18

. Util

ities

1

0.35

19

0.63

96

0.58

60

0.06

17

0.40

98

2

Nam

e of

Ind

ustr

y Ri

sk C

lass

71

-75

66-7

0 61

-65

56-6

0 A

vera

ge

NA

=

Not

Ava

ilabl

e Ri

sk Class C

ode

1. L

ower

Risk

(Be

ta v

alue

s less than

0.5)

2.

Medium

Risk

(Be

ta v

alues

bet

wen

0.5

to 1

.0)

3. High R

A (Beta d

ues

grea

ter t

han

1.0)

ul 2

Page 28: PORTFOLIO VOLATILITY ADJUSTMENT BY CANADIAN MUTUAL FUNDS

NOTES

The new TSE 3000 Composite Index is a better- proxy for the market but data on this mdex were not available at the time this work wps being done.

This study provides empirical evidence on this proposition.

In order to save space the tables of analysis of variance are omitted

In order to save space the tables of analysis of v a r i a n ~ are omitted

In order to save space the tables of analysis of variance are omitted

REFERENCES

Bauman W.S. “Evaluation of Prospective Investment Performance”, The Journal of Finance (May 1968), pp.276-295.

Bogle, J.C. “Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation”, Financial Analyst Journal (November-December, 1970), pp.25 -33.

Brown, F.E., and Vickers, D. “Mutual Fund Portfolio Activity, Performance, and Market Impact”, The Journalof Finance, (May, 1963). pp. 377-391.

Carlson, R. “Aggregate Performance of Mutual Funds, 1948-1967”, Journal of Quantitative and Financial Analysis (March, 1970). pp. 11 -32.

Cohen, K. and Pogue, J.A. “Some Comments Concernin Mutual Fund Versus Random Portfolio Performance ” Journalof Business, ?AM, 19681, pp. 180-190.

Evan, J. and Archer, S. “Diversification and the Reduction of Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis”, Journal o f Finance (December, 1968). pp. 761-761.

Friend, 1. and Blume, M. “Measurement of Portfolio Performance Under Uncertainty”, The American Economic Review (September, 1970), pp. 561-575.

Jensen, M. “The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964”, The Journal ofFieance (May, 1968), pp. 389-416.

Jensen, M. “Risk, The Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation of Investment Portfolios”, Journal of Business (April 1969), pp. 167-247.

Klemkosky, R.C. “Additional Evidence on the Risk Level Discriminatory Powcrs of the Weisenberger Classifications”, The Journal of Business (January, 1976), pp.48-50.

Reins, W.W., and Vandenberg, P.A. “A Comment on the Risk Level Discriminatory Powers of the Wiesenberger Classification”, The Journal of Business (April, 1973). pp. 270-283.

Sharpe, W. “A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis”, Management Science January, 1963), pp. 277-293.

Sharpe, W. “Mutual Fund Performance”, Journal of Business (JanGary 1966), pp. 119-1 38.

Harbans L. Dhingra

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14) Treynor, J . “How to Rate Management of Investment Funds”, H m a r d Business Review (January-February, 196% pp.63-75.

Treynor, J.L., and Mauy, K. “Can Mutual Funds Outguess the Market?” Harvmd BusinessReview (July, August, 19661, pp. 131-136.

West, R.W. “Mutual Fund Performance and the Theory of Capital Asset Pricing: Some Comments”, The Journal of Business (April, 1 9 6 0 , pp. 230-236.

15)

‘16)

Portfolio Volatility Adjustment 333