portfolio theory capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory
TRANSCRIPT
Portfolio Theory
Capital Asset Pricing Model and Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Contribution of MPT
Establish diversifiable versus nondiversifiable risks
Quantify diversifiable and nondiversifiable risk
Market Equilibrium Condition
Law of one pricePrice of risk = Reward-to-risk ratioFor well diversified portfolios, the only
remaining risks are systematic riskHence,
j Fi F
i j
r rr r
CAPM
Assumptions (see recommended textbook)The Equilibrium World
– The Market Portfolio is the Optimal Risky Portfolio
– the Capital Market Line is the Optimal CAL
The Separation Theorem– aka Mutual Fund Theorem
Market Risk Premium
Market Risk Premium: rM - rf = A 2M
– depends on aggregate investors’ risk aversion (A)– and market’s volatility (2
M)Historically:
– rM - rf = 12.5% - 3.76% = 8.74%– M = 20.39%– 2
M = 0.20392 = 0.0416 Implying an average investor has:
– A = 2.1
Reward and Risk in CAPM
Reward– Risk Premium: [E(ri) - rF]
Risk– Systematic Risk: i = iM/M
2
Ratio of Risk Premium to Systematic Risk= [E(ri) - rF] / i
Equilibrium in a CAPM World
This condition must apply to all assets, including the market portfolio
Define M = 1CAPM equation:E(ri) = rF + i x [E(rM) - rF]
( )( ) j Fi F
i j
E r rE r r
Systematic Risk of a Portfolio
Systematic Risk of a Portfolio is a weighted average
= wi i
The Security Market Line
The Security Market Line (SML)– return-beta () relationship for individual
securities
The Capital Market(Allocation) Line (CML/CAL)– return-standard deviation relationship for
efficient portfolios
Security Market Line (SML)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
beta ()
Exp
ecte
d R
etu
rn
MStock i
SML
rf=7%
Market Risk premium=8%
Uses of CAPM
BenchmarkingCapital BudgetingRegulation
CAPM and Index Models
Index models - uses actual portfoliosTest for mean-variance efficiency of the
indexBad index or bad model?
Security Characteristic Line (SCL) (A Scatter Diagram)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Market Excess Return (RM)
Sto
ck's
Excess R
etu
rn (
R i)
= -0.0006
= 1.0177
= 0.5715
Estimating Beta
Past does not always predict the futureRegression toward the meanIs Beta and CAPM dead?
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)
Assumption– Risk-free arbitrage cannot exist in an efficient
market– Arbitrage
• A zero-investment portfolio with sure profit– e.g. violation of law of one price
APT Equilibrium Condition
Law of One PriceIf two portfolios, A and B, both only have
one systematic factor (k),
, ,
A F B F
k A k B
r r r r
There can be many risk factors. The equilibrium condition holds for each risk factor.
APT example
Economy Stock A Stock BGood 10% 12%Bad 5% 6%
Stock A sells for $10 per share Stock B sells for $50 per share Arbitrage strategy
– Short sell 500 shares of stock A ($5000)– Buy 100 shares of stock B ($5000)
• Net investment = $5000 - $5000 = $0
Arbitrage returnEconomy PortfolioGood -500+600 = 100 =2%Bad -250+300 = 50 = 1%
Multi-factor Models
Factor Portfolio (RMK)
– A well-diversified portfolio with beta=1 on one factor and beta=0 on any other factor
Ri = rfi + i1RM1 + i2RM2 + ei
– rfi is the risk-free rate
– RM1 is the excess return on factor portfolio 1
– RM2 is the excess return on factor portfolio 2
Summary
CAPM– Empirical application of CAPM needs a proxy for the
market portfolio– Empirical evidence lacks support
• Could be due to poor proxy or poor model
APT– Difficult to apply empirically– The model does not identify systematic risk factors
Empirical Models– Lacks economic intuition– E.g. Market-to-book ratio as a systematic risk factor