Population Forecast and Malthus

Chapter 2 sections 6 – 8

Terms/Concepts• Demographics• Thomas Malthus and his theory

Demographics• Demographics - the study of

population

Declining Birth Rates• Population hit a peak of growth around

1970 • NIR has been declining on a global

scale- it now sits at 1.2%• Two population reduction

strategies:– 1. Education and health care– 2. Distribution of contraceptives

• Due to cultural and religious beliefs the most effective method varies from country to country

Declining Birth Rates• Lowering birth rates through health

care– Works together with bettering economic

conditions in a given area – In nations where women are able to

attend school longer the birth rates are lower than nations who do not have women receiving a full education

– Well-developed health care has helped infant mortality rate decrease

– Education about contraceptives and sexually transmitted diseases has also played a major role in the decline in birth rates

Declining Birth Rates• Lowering birth rates through contraception

– Economic development will help decrease birth rates in the long run

– In societies that have lower status of women there are higher birth rates as compared to countries with the opposite

– Nations that show lower contraception use show higher birth rates

– The main reason that contraceptive use is not as wide spread is due to religious beliefs

– We have seen major growth in the last couple years in nations who do not have either contraceptives or health care education

Population Futures• World population will still increase,

but at a slower rate than in the past.– The principal reason for declining

natural increase rates in less developed countries today is declining birth rates

• Components of future population growth

– Fertility is the primary determinant.

Population Futures• Demographic transition possible

stage 5– Negative NIR

• Many developed countries are predicted to experience population decline.– Factor of more elderly than young

population in these countries– Fewer young women who will be

entering their childbearing years

Population Futures

Population Futures – India vs. China

• These two countries comprise more than one-third of the world’s population.

Population Futures – India vs. China

• India’s population policies– Beginning in 1971, citizens paid to be

sterilized– Now a stronger emphasis on education

as family planning – Limited success

Population Futures – India vs. China

• China’s population policies– Beginning in 1980, one-child policy– Financial and other incentives to limit

family size– Greater prosperity in China has led to a

relaxation of one-child policy– Now a stronger emphasis on education

as family planning• Family-planning fees

Who is this?

What did he believe about Population?

What do you think about his theory?

Malthus Grim Forecast

Malthus Grim Forecast• Malthus’s theory and reality

– Globally, Malthus’s theory has not been supported during the past 50 years.• World food production has increased

faster than the NIR.– Hunger and famine are distribution

problems and not production problems.– Cultural, economic, and technological

change has slowed population growth.

Where do you think the US falls in terms

of Resources?

Do you think the US should send aid to countries that are

ailing?

Population Growth• Population Growth Video

– Hans Rosling

Terms/Concepts• Demographics• Thomas Malthus and his Theory