population and demographic trends in utahle.utah.gov/interim/2015/pdf/00002536.pdf · 2015. 5....
TRANSCRIPT
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS IN UTAH
Growing, Concentrating, Diversifying, Aging
Prepared by the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
For the Government Operations Interim CommitteeMay 2015
Discussion Points
• Utah’s growing population
• Causes of growth
• Where growth is occurring
• Impacts on racial and ethnic makeup
• Affect on government operations
Prepared by the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
1.11.5 1.7
2.2
2.83.3
3.9
4.6
5.3
6.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Mill
ion
s o
f R
esid
ents
Utah Population: 1970-2060
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and GOMB 2012 Projections
Rankings
•Utah likely to pass Arkansas, Mississippi, and
Iowa by 2020 census to become the 30th most populous state
Prepared by the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
510,319 528,069 534,951
605,750
655,449
686,806 708,419
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
ang
e b
y D
ecad
eUtah Population Change by Decade
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and GOMB 2012 Projections
Utah Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change
Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data
3163465796837307408819501,6492,0752,5963,1343,5275,5446,1936,9577,3808,5119,333
20,41720,881
25,41741,247
54,86468,380
84,376141,810
307,391313,794
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Daggatt
Piute
Rich
Carbon
Wayne
San Juan
Millard
Emery
Garfield
Grand
Beaver
Kane
Sevier
Morgan
Duchesne
Juab
Sanpete
Uintah
Box Elder
Summit
Wasatch
Iron
Tooele
Cache
Weber
Davis
Washington
Salt Lake
Utah
Co
un
ty2010-2030 Population Change
Statewide Increase: 1.1 Million
3163465796837307408819501,6492,0752,5963,1343,5275,5446,1936,9577,3808,5119,333
20,41720,881
25,41741,247
54,86468,380
84,376141,810
307,391313,794
- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Daggatt
Piute
Rich
Carbon
Wayne
San Juan
Millard
Emery
Garfield
Grand
Beaver
Kane
Sevier
Morgan
Duchesne
Juab
Sanpete
Uintah
Box Elder
Summit
Wasatch
Iron
Tooele
Cache
Weber
Davis
Washington
Salt Lake
Utah
Co
un
ty2010-2030 Population Change
80% of Growth:916 Thousand
Source: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR
12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
17%20%
24%
31%
36%
40%
45%
49%
54%
2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
6%8% 9%
15%
20%22%
25%27%
30%
1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%
5%8%
10%
19%
26%
32%34%
37%
41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Minority Share of the Population
US Salt Lake City State of Utah Salt Lake County
Source: Bureau of the Census, 2010 Census
2010 Minority Share by Age Group
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
FT
Es
Po
pu
lati
on
State Population vs. State Employees
Utah Population Total State FTEs
Employees to Citizens2000: 1/1132014: 1/146
Population’s Effect on Elections
In 2014:
Active Voters: 1,284,170Voting Precincts: 2,204Polling Locations: 705
Key Points
•Utah’s population is growing
•Caused by birth rate, aided by migration
•Where growth is occurring:• Salt Lake, Utah, Davis, Weber, and Washington Counties
•Minority population to increase
•Effects on government and elections
Prepared by the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
Questions?
Contact:
• Michael Christensen• Phone: 801-538-1032
• Email: [email protected]
• Brian Bean• Phone: 801-538-1032
• Email: [email protected]
Prepared by the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel
OLRGC thanks Dr. Pam Perlich, Senior Research Economist, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Utah, for the use of data in this paper that she presented to legislators at the Utah Legislative Policy Summit, December 17, 2013.