1

2015

By:

SATYA GANDHI & Roopa

B.Tech, M.B.A

Ph: 9491438248

Satya1159@gmail.com

Political situation in AP & prospects for AAP

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Political situation in A.P. & prospects for AAP

History of AP politics:

A.P politics revolved around two parties, congress & TDP till 2014

elections. The Indian National Congress party won most of the state elections from

1953 to 1983. There were 10 chief ministers from the year 1956 to 1983. In 1983,

however, there was a lot of changes in the political scenario. N.T. Rama Rao,

established a new party called the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and within nine

months of its formation, the party was voted to power and NTR became the chief

minister and was the first from the non-congress party. But the party broke into

two parties as the then state finance minster Nadendla Bhaskara Rao chose to

separate and form the state government with the support of Congress(I). Later on

again NTR came into power in 1984. In 1989 the congress came back to power

with Marri Chenna Reddy as the chief minister and was in power till 1994.

NTR again came to power & appointed his son-in-law as the revenue

minister in 1994. NTR's third term only lasted nine months. On 23 August 1995, he

was removed as Chief Minister and as the president of the TDP by his son-in-

law, Nara Chandrababu Naidu, who engineered an internal party coup against him

and took over the office. Naidu claimed that the reason for overthrowing NTR was

that the latter was planning to hand over the reins of the party to his second

wife Lakshmi Parvathi and felt that the party was in danger of disintegrating under

her rule. Most of the TDP MLA's sided with Naidu. In the year 1996 NTR died.

Chandrababu Naidu was in power as chief minister for 9 years till 2004. After that

the Indian National Congress again came into power and made Y.S. Rajasekhara

Reddy(CM)

Changes were taking place fast and a separate Telangana state was

demanded by the people in that region. In 2009, the central government announced

the process of the new state, but controversy arose as the city of Hyderabad was

also one of the ten districts of Telangana region.

Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy became the chief minister again by defeating Praja

Rajyam Party and TDP alliances. However, he died in a helicopter crash in 2009,

following which Konigeti Rosaiah became the chief minister in 2009. But he soon

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resigned and Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy was sworn in as the chief minister of AP.

But due to congress pro Telangana decision Kiran Kumar Reddy has resigned and

President's rule has applied & it continued till May 2014 elections.

Political situation in AP & different Parties prospects:

The political situation in AP is diversifying significantly post division of

state due to continues failures of TDP & BJP alliance. YSRCP is failing in

projecting the failures of TDP, to public. TDP is excessively using its yellow

media to control Jagan & its party. One year rule of TDP is crisis free in AP, but

vote for note scam became a cyclone in TDP & in state politics. BJP is becoming

insignificant in AP due to its back step on special status issue.

Major parties in AP

Telugu Desam Party (TDP):

TDP took pro telangana stand but didnt project its stand to public, It

indirectly supported division to gain political advantage from its rival trio

(Congress, YSRCP,TRS). TDP almost lost its hopes in telangana but it tried hard

to bag majority vote share in AP. CBN desperately needed TDP to win in AP so he

favored alliance with BJP & Pawan Kalyan (JSP) & also gave numerous promises

to public which are not viable due to AP economic crisis. TDP is successful in

cornering YSRCP post elections. People are hopeful on TDP & has lot of faith on

CBN.

Positives of TDP:

24hrs power supply:

AP state is selected for a pilot project by central government for supplying

24hrs electricity.

TDP effectively tackled Hud hud crisis that struck the state, especially

Visakhapatnam, that gave positive impact on people.

Visited Singapore, Japan, & China for investments & hero motors

investments in AP is a big catch.

Successfully pooled 32000 acres land for amaravathi.

Committed to complete polavaram project.

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Removed loan burden on farmers upto 1.5 Lakh.

Providing Rs.1000 pension every month to senior citizens.

Metros for Vijayawada & Visakhapatnam.

Visakhapatnam Chennai industrial corridor is undertaken by ADB.

Rs.150 for 15Mbps internet, TV cable connection & phone connection.

Trying to pass grievance redressal bill.

Negatives for TDP:

Vote for note scam.

Silence on special status issue.

Failure in pooling investments.

Financial & economic crisis in AP.

Step mother attitude of central government.

Unnecessary expenses by government.

YSR Congress party (YSRCP)

YSRCP took united AP stand to gain political advantage in seemandhra

region. YSRCP seemed to be a threat to TDP since its inception & during division

crisis YSRCP succeeded in cornering TDPs stand on division. TDP feared of

Jagan & favored alliance with BJP. YSRCP lost to TDP in 2014 elections with

only 1% vote share difference, which surprised many political experts. Many

people felt that TDPs promise of loan waiver to farmers, BJP & Pawan Kalyan

(JanaSena Party) helped TDP to suppress jagan charisma.

Jagans YSRCP future is in dilemma because of numerous cases hanging on

his neck that may end his political career any time. If charges on Jagan are proved

& if he is jailed then there is no future for YSRCP. Many leaders in YSRCP

criticized autocratic behavior of Jagan & absconded the party, pre & post elections.

Indian National Congress (INC):

Congress took pro Telangana decision to gain political advantage in

Telangana but its strategy failed in both new states. Congress lost all its deposits in

2014 elections in AP & only bagged 21 assembly seats & 2 loksabha seats in

Telangana. Congress has bright future in telangana if they work collectively. TRS

is loosing its charisma day by day & Congress can be the next alternative. KCR is

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working 24/7 to eliminate TDP in telangana & his plans are being fruitful. AP

congress is showing signs of recovery post drastic defeat in 2014 elections.

Congress power cant be under estimated in AP because it has strong support base

& can be phoenix in AP in 2019 elections.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP):

During 2013, with announcement of Modi as PM candidate, BJP leaders in

AP are very futuristic on their future in AP because of Modi wave illusion, but due

to BJPs pro telangana stand, they had less hopes in AP but highly confident in

Telangana. TDP BJP alliance came to power in AP but failed in Telangana. TDP

BJP alliance worked in favor of them to boost up party future in both states. BJP

seemed to be confident to expand its party in both states post elections, but now

they are directionless in both states. BJPs future is in dilemma as they went back

on their promise of granting special status to AP.

Loksatta Party:

Loksatta udhyama samstha converted into political party & contested in

2009 elections for the first time. People have lot of faith on Mr. Jaya Prakash

Narayan founder of Loksatta , & his party became hope for educated youth to turn

towards politics. Loksatta did tremendous service both in center & state & played a

key role in passing bills like RTI. In 2009 elections only JP won from kukatpally

constituency & did one man show in AP state assembly.

Loksatta had a strong support base but it failed to reach the masses. Loksatta

failed to project other leaders other than Mr.JP. And many people openly criticized

that JPs dictatorial attitude lead to a failed experiment. In my personal view JP is

not a dictator but he failed in attracting social workers & civil servants towards

loksatta.

Reasons for failure of Loksatta

1. Concentration of power

2. High dependency on a individual JP

3. Less resources

4. Failed to mobilize youth towards loksatta ideology

5. Internal crisis

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6. Failed to attract social workers & reputed persons towards party

Key economic stats of AP:

Gross state domestic product increase 12.03% from 4,64,184Cr (2013-14) to

5,20,030Cr (2014-15)

Per capita income increased by 11.2% from Rs.81,397(2013-14) to

Rs.90,517 (2014-15)

A.P.budget 2015-16

Andhra Pradesh Finance Minister Yanamala Ramakrishnudu presented Rs. 1,13,049 crore budget for 2015-16.

While the non-Plan expenditure is Rs. 78,637 crore, the Plan outlay has been put at Rs. 34,412 crore.

This leaves a revenue deficit of Rs. 7,300crore and fiscal deficit of Rs. 17,584 crore.

The fiscal deficit works out to 3% of Gross State Domestic Product and revenue deficit of 1.24 per cent.

The irrigation sector has been allocated Rs. 5,258 crore.

Factoring the contribution of agriculture and other allied sectors and their contribution to 27 percent of GSDP, it is proposed to come out with a

separate budget for agriculture.

As per advanced estimates, the State has recorded a growth of 7.21 per cent during 2014-15.

Demographics of AP

AP 8th largest state in India with area of 160205Km2

10th largest by population with population of 4.93 Crore.

Population density 308/km2

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The state has coast line of 972kms

13 districts, 9 coastal Andhra & 4 rayalaseema districts.

Visakhapatnam & Vijayawada are major cities in Andhra with 2million+ population.

The average literacy rate stands at 67.41% with 29,772,532 literates, significantly lower the national average of 73.0%

These 13 districts are further divided into 49 revenue divisions and they are in turn divided into 664 mandals.

No. of peoples representatives in AP

MPs Rajya sabha 11

MPs loksabha 25

MLCs 58

MLAs 175

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Performance of political parties in Loksabha elections 2014:

Party Won Votes %

TDP 16 14099230 21.71

BJP 3 4091908 8.52

Congress 2 5578326 11.62

TRS 11 6736270 10.37

YSRCP 9 13995435 21.55

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Performance of political parties in Loksabha elections 2009:

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AP Assembly elections 2014:

National parties: 1. BJP Bharatiya Janata Party 2. BSP Bahujan Samaj Party 3. CPI Communist Party of India 4. CPM Communist Party of India (Marxist) 5. INC Indian National Congress 6. NCP Nationalist Congress Party

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State parties :

1. TDP Telugu Desam Party 2. TRS Telangana Rashtra Samithi

State parties Other states:

1. AAAP Aam Aadmi Party 2. AIFB All India Forward Bloc 3. IUML Indian Union Muslim League 4. D(S) Janata Dal (Secular) 5. JD(U) Janata Dal (United) 6. LJP Lok Jan Shakti Party 7. RJD Rashtriya Janata Dal 8. RLD Rashtriya Lok Dal 9. RSP Revolutionary Socialist Party 10. SHS Shivsena 11. SP Samajwadi Party

Registered (Unrecognised) parties : 70

No. of constituencies

Type of

constituency

GEN SC ST Total

No. of

constituencies

227 48 19 294

Total contestants in fray : 3910

Average contestants per constituency : 13

Minimum contestants in a constituency : 5

Maximum contestants in a constituency : 36

No. of polling stations: 71223

Average No. of electors per polling station : 912

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Electors:

Male Female Others Total

No. of Electors

(Including Service

Electors)

32676266 32252318 5554 64934138

No. of electors who

voted at polling stations

24253786 23923924 274 48177984

Polling percentage 74.22 % 74.18 % 5 % 74.20 %

Performance of contesting candidates :

Male Female Others Total

No. of

contestants

3591 317 2 3910

Elected 266 27 0 293

Forfeited

deposits

2998 259 2 3259

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Performance of political parties in assembly elections 2014:

Party Contested Won FD Votes % Votes %

in seats

contested

YSRCP 266 70 87 13494076 27.88 30.99

AIMIM 35 7 25 737134 1.52 12.42

IND 1511 2 1499 1485463 3.07 3.13

JaSPa 167 0 166 220734 0.46 0.80

LSP 112 0 112 198246 0.41 1.05

AAAP 145 0 145 88909 0.18 0.37

NOTA 294 0 294 308286 0.64 0.64

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Parties assembly seat share in 2 states

AP

Party TDP YSRCP BJP Others Total

Seats 102 67 4 2 175

Telangana:

Party Seats

TRS 63

INC 21

TDP 15

BJP 5

AIMIM 7

YSRCP 3

BSP 2

CPI 1

CPI(M) 1

Independents 1

Total 119

Performance of political parties in assembly elections 2009:

Party Contested Won Votes % of votes

TDP 225 92 11826457 28.12

Congress 294 156 1537448 36.55

TRS 45 10 1678906 3.19

AIMIM 8 7 349896 0.83

BJP 271 2 1192814 2.84

LSP 246 1 739627 1.76

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Our views on AP-AAP

Former convener Mr.Rama Krishna Raju garu is highly respected human

being in society & did a great service to this nation through various NGOs. He

was mislead by majority self elected executive members. AP-AAP did a huge

mistake by issuing B-forms to 145 contenders in assembly elections 2014.

Everyone who has high pitch voice themselves claimed as state executive

committee members & got approvals for it. Mr. Raju also gave approvals to contest

under AAP flag without proper scrutiny. Kejriwal resignation also worked against

AP-AAP.

After stunning victory in Delhi (2013) also, majority people of AP are not so

interested in AAP, because they started comparing AAP with LSP political failure

& people are more interested on telangana issue than AAP. So AAP became

insignificant in 2014 elections. Majority people in the state, dont know that AAP

contested in 2014 elections. AAP should learn from political failure of LSP to

build strong pillars in AP.

Some self elected leaders in AP-AAP are using indecent language in social

media groups like Facebook & whatsapp which is increasing indiscipline in the

party. Electing convener & state executive members at present situation will

be a menace that inturn works against the party. Some leaders projected

themselves as conveners & asked all district volunteers to send 3 members to state

executive committee, these conveners directly colluded with district teams to

ensure their supporters to come to state executive committee.

We request national executive team & state observers to closely observe

state politics & take political advantage on key issues. AAP at present should take

political advantage on vote for note scam. We request you to issue tasks to all

district teams with specific time frame & ask them to work for that task. And the

first task should be selection of 10 most reputed social workers/civil

servants/intellectuals etc from every district & ensuring their support or joining in

AAP. After this task, we should be able to project 100 faces of AP-AAP that will

give a strong boost to party in every corner of state.

After this task we can collectively take decision on different positions in AP-

AAP. Collaborating or taking issue based support with loksatta & communists &

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other parties with ideological similarities is a better idea to boost the party in the

state.

Suggestions to build AP AAP.

1. Requesting every district volunteers to select 10 most reputed social

workers/celebrities/ civil servants/Intellectuals in their district & making

efforts to bring them to AP-AAP within a specified time frame.

2. Citizens grievance monitoring system:

http://cdma.ap.gov.in/Links.html

3. Pressurising AP government to pass grievance redressal bill.

4. RTI Promotion.

5. Association with ADR & FDR to obtain their research works & to utilize

their expertise in building our AP-AAP.

6. Pressurising for generic medicine stores in every mandal.

7. MNREG Job cards social audit.

8. Special railway zone for Visakhapatnam.

9. Mobilizing youth to AAP by conducting awareness on different key bills

that empowers democracy.

10. Ensuring speedy & corruption free digital Andhra scheme.

11. Taking up child labor & human trafficking issue.

12. Social audit on various government schemes.

13. Taking up Indiramma housing scam issue.

14. Pressurizing government to cap school fees across state.

Forwarded to:

Shri.Somnath Bharti

(AP State incharge)