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1

POLITICALMONITORJuly

2018

3Political Monitor | July 2018| Final | Public

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1023 British adults 18+, 20th– 24th July 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote

in General Elections = 795. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%

Voting Intention

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -1

38%

39%

9%

6%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

CONSERVATIVE LEAD = 0

38%

38%

10%

6%

3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

LIB DEM

UKIP

GREEN


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Jun

16

Jul 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Jun

17

Jul 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 18

May 1

8

Jun

18

Jul 18

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)


Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election

2015 General Election

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR

%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04

Ap

r 04

Jul 04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Ap

r 05

Jul 05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Ap

r 06

Jul 06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Ap

r 07

Jul 07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Ap

r 08

Jul 08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Ap

r 09

Jul 09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Ap

r 10

Jul 10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Ap

r 11

Jul 11

Oct

11

Jan

12

Ap

r 12

Jul 12

Oct

12

Jan

13

Ap

r 13

Jul 13

Oct

13

Jan

14

Ap

r 14

Jul 14

Oct

14

Jan

15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Oct

15

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Jul 16

Oct

16

Jan

17

Ap

r 17

Jul 17

Oct

17

Jan

18

Ap

r 18

Jul 18

Miliband

elected

(Sept 10)

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

May

as PM

(July 16)

2015 General Election 2017 General Election2005 General Election2010 General Election

Cameron elected

(Dec 05)

Brown

as PM

(June 07)



Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote

and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections

Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – July ‘18

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

%


SATISFACTION WITH THE

GOVERNMENT AND

PARTY LEADERS


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?

Theresa May

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase 1023 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th July2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

22%

69%

9%

Jeremy Corbyn The Government

-4.5%swing from June 2018

-2%swing from June 2018

-4.5%swing from June 2018

-7%swing from June 2018

-32 Net -30 Net -16 Net -47 Net

SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 22%

DISSATISFIED 62% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 40% DISSATISFIED 69%

24%

40%

35%

Vince Cable

28%

58%

14%

30%

62%

8%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec

15

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec

16

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 17

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 17

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec

17

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 18

May 1

8

Ju

n 1

8

Ju

l 18

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE

LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?


Base: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – July 2018

MAY CORBYN CABLE

30%

28%

24%

2017 GE2016 EU Ref

% satisfied


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)

MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

May

Number of months after becoming Prime Minister


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?


Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)


Hague (97-01) Duncan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10) Blair (94-97)

Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92) Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)

Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader

Net

sati

sfact

ion

Corbyn



Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979-2018)

MAY’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV BROWN’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV

Net

sati

sfact

ion


Number of months after assuming Government

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY ?

May’s Government


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec 1

6

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 1

7

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 1

7

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec 1

7

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 1

8

May 1

8

Ju

n 1

8

Ju

l 1

8

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.

Satisfaction with Theresa May’s Government

Dissatisfied

69%

22%

Satisfied

Theresa May

becomes PM

August 2016 – July 2018


%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec 1

6

Jan

17

Feb

17

Mar

17

Ap

r 1

7

May 1

7

Ju

n 1

7

Ju

l 1

7

Au

g 1

7

Sep

17

Oct

17

No

v 1

7

Dec 1

7

Jan

18

Feb

18

Mar

18

Ap

r 1

8

May 1

8

Ju

n 1

8

Ju

l 1

8


Base: c. 300-400 Conservative supporters each month.

Satisfaction with Theresa May’s Government (amongst Conservative supporters)

Satisfied

45%

44%

Dissatisfied

August 2016 – July 2018

Theresa May

becomes PM


%


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?


Theresa May (satisfaction)

30%

62%

8%

July 2018 August 2016 – July 2018

SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 62%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = -32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 1026 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th June 2018.

%


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME

MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 382 Conservative supporters 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.

Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)

55%37%

8%

SATISFIED 55%

DISSATISFIED 37%

DON’T KNOW 8%

Net = +18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

July 2018 August 2016 – July 2018

%


28%

58%

14%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

SATISFIED 28%

DISSATISFIED 58%

DON’T KNOW 14%

Net = -30

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1023 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

July 2018 September 2015 – July 2018

%


59%30%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec-

15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

rl-1

6

May-1

6

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec-

16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Ap

r-17

May-1

7

Jun

-17

Jul-

17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

SATISFIED 59%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 12%

Net = +29

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 302 Labour supporters 18+ 20th -24th July 2018.

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)

Satisfied

Dissatisfied


%


24%

40%

35% SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 40%

DON’T KNOW 35%

Net = -16

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


Vince Cable (satisfaction)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Jan

-18

Mar-

18

Ap

r-18

May-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Base: 1023 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.


%


ECONOMIC

OPTIMISM


17%

23%

54%

6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

Sep

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

May-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

May-1

2

Au

g-1

2

No

v-1

2

Feb

-13

May-1

3

Au

g-1

3

No

v-1

3

Feb

-14

May-1

4

Au

g-1

4

No

v-1

4

Feb

-15

Ap

r-15

Sep

-15

Dec-

15

Mar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec-

16

Mar-

17

Jul-

17

No

v-1

7

Ap

r-18

Jul-

18

IMPROVE 17%

STAY THE SAME 23%

GET WORSE 54%

DON’T KNOW 6%

EOI = -37

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month



%


DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE

SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2018

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Jun

1998

No

v 1

998

Ap

r 1999

Sep

1999

Feb

2000

Jul 2000

Dec

2000

May 2

001

Oct

2001

Mar

2002

Au

g 2

002

Jan

2003

Jun

2003

No

v 2

003

Ap

r 2004

Sep

2004

Feb

2005

Jul 2005

Dec

2005

May 2

006

Oct

2006

Mar

2007

Au

g 2

007

Jan

2008

Jun

2008

No

v 2

008

Ap

r 2009

Sep

2009

Feb

2010

Jul 2010

Dec

2010

May 2

011

Oct

2011

Mar

2012

Au

g 2

012

Jan

2013

Jun

2013

No

v 2

013

Ap

r 2014

Sep

2014

Feb

2015

Jul 2015

Dec

2015

May 2

016

Oct

2016

Mar

2017

Au

g 2

017

Jan

2018

Jun

2018

-37


Party leadership


PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: THE LABOUR

PARTY/CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION


Party leadership change

28%

37%

18%

18%

18%

14%

15%

10%

16%

17%

4%

5%

Conservative

Labour

STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE

NEITHER AGREE

NOR DISAGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW



PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: THE LABOUR

PARTY/CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER BEFORE THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION


Party leadership change


27

39

45

46

49

42

66

43

55

0

20

40

60

80

June '14 Oct '15 July '16 Sept '17 July '18

Agree %

Corbyn

elected

(Sept 15)

Theresa May

becomes PM

(Sept 15)2017 General

Election

CONSERVATIVE PARTY LABOUR PARTY


10%

15%

19%

25%

31%

34%

14%

14%

20%

6%

7%

8%

61%

58%

41%

66%

61%

55%

Michael Gove

Jeremy Hunt

Sajid Javid

Boris Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn

Theresa May

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?

Potential Prime Ministers


AGREE DISAGREEBase: 1023 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.


30 28

44

34

17

23

3031

1113

12 10

32 32

2117

25

0

20

40

60

July '14 July '15 July '16 April '18 July '18

Agree %

55


Potential Prime Ministers

Theresa May

Jeremy Corbyn

Boris Johnson

Michael Gove

Base: 382 Conservative supporters 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.


ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

Potential Prime Ministers (amongst Conservative supporters)

14%

18%

22%

31%

63%

15%

26%

19%

9%

6%

60%

40%

45%

57%

28%

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

Jeremy Hunt

Boris Johnson

Theresa May


AGREE DISAGREE




43 45

81 81

63

14 1620 14

47 47

2326 31

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jul '14 Jul '15 Jul '16 Apr '18 Jul '18

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER

Potential Prime Ministers (amongst Conservative supporters)

Base: Circa 300-400 Conservatives supporters each month. .

Agree %

May lead

+32

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

Michael Gove



Corbyn as Prime Minister (amongst Labour supporters)


Base: 302 Labour supporters 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.

July 2015 – July 2018

26

47

67

62

3345

21

32

0

20

40

60

80

Jul '15 Jul '16 Apr '18 Jul '18

Disagree

Agree

29%

33%

6%

20%

12%

Strongly agree 29%

Tend to agree 33%

Neither agree nor disagree 6%

Tend to disagree 20%

Strongly disagree 12%

Don’t know *%

July 2018

Base: c. 300 Labour supporters each month

% Agree


Brexit


WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HANDLING BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP

WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION: THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?


Party with the best policies on Britain’s future with EU

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

17

25

20

48

37

33

126

10

3 3 40

10

20

30

40

50

April '17 March '18 July '18

Conservative

lead

+13

%


44%

36% 35%37%

34%30%

25%

51%

60% 60% 59%63%

67%

72%

0

20

40

60

80

Mar-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18

PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR

BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?

Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitorc. 1,000 British adults 18+

4%

21%

36%

36%

3% Not

confident

Confident

March 2017 – July 2018July 2018

Very confident 4%

Fairly confident 21%

Not very confident 36%

Not confident at all 36%

Don’t know 3%


%


HOW MUCH, IF AT ALL, DO YOU TRUST EACH OF THE FOLLOWING TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS FOR

BRITAIN ABOUT ITS EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

The right decision maker for Brexit


9%

3%

11%

7%

10%

20%

30%

24%

24%

31%

13%

28%

16%

24%

26%

37%

24%

47%

41%

32%

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Phillip Hammond

Boris Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn

Theresa May

A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT NOT VERY MUCH NOT AT ALL



HOW MUCH, IF AT ALL, DO YOU TRUST EACH OF THE FOLLOWING TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS FOR

BRITAIN ABOUT ITS EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?

The right decision maker for Brexit (among Conservative supporters)


12%

7%

17%

20%

34%

40%

31%

52%

4%

8%

21%

20%

28%

14%

19%

30%

17%

18%

7%

Boris Johnson

Phillip Hammond

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Theresa May

A GREAT DEAL A FAIR AMOUNT NOT VERY MUCH NOT AT ALL



17%

61%

5%

17%

AND FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THERESA MAY’S PLAN FOR BRITAIN’S

FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (ALSO KNOWN AS THE CHEQUERS PLAN) WOULD BE A

GOOD THING OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE?

Evaluating the Chequers Plan


Good thing

Bad thing

Neither good or bad

Don’t know

29%

47%

6%

19%


49%

29%

7%

15%

Conservative supporters

Labour supporters

Base: c. 300 Labour supporters each month

Base: Circa 300-400 Conservatives supporters each month. .


Trump


DO YOU HAVE A FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE OPINION OF DONALD TRUMP?

Views of President Trump

8%

11%

11%

16%

52%

2%

Very favourable 8%

Fairly favourable 11%

Neither favourable

nor unfavourable11%

Fairly unfavourable 16%

Very favourable 52%

Don’t know 2%

July 2018


75% 60%of women have

an unfavourable

opinion

of men have an

unfavourable

opinion

Unfavourability by gender

Unfavourability by age

76% 64% 65%

18-34 35-54 55+

19% favourable

68% unfavourable



Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

December 2015 – July 2018

127

19

74

84

68

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dec '15 Oct '16 July '18

%

DO YOU HAVE A FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE OPINION OF DONALD TRUMP?

Views of President Trump

Unfavourable

Favourable

Net

favourability

-49


DO YOU THINK THAT BRITAIN WILL BE MORE SECURE AGAINST ITS ENEMIES IN THE FUTURE OR LESS SECURE AS A RESULT OF

THE WAY DONALD TRUMP IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRESIDENT, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?

President Trump’s impact on Britain’s security


More secure

Less secure

No difference

Don’t know

10%

44%

43%

3%



President Trump’s impact on the special relationship

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1023 British adults 18+ 20th – 24th July 2018.

AND DO YOU THINK THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN IS STRONGER OR WEAKER AS A RESULT

OF THE WAY DONALD TRUMP IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRESIDENT, OR HAS IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE?

6%

53%

38%

2%Stronger

Weaker

Made no difference

Don’t know

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Ipsos MORIJuly 2018 POLITICAL MONITOR

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