political ads2012
DESCRIPTION
Presentation to Boulder Rotary 1/22/13TRANSCRIPT
Political adsThe 2012 presidential race & beyond
2012 political ads● FCC required top TV stations in top markets
to file ad buys online● Record-setting money raised by presidential
campaigns● Outside groups also spent heavily● CU News Corps tracked Denver market ad
spending beginning Aug. 2
Data collection & analysis, stories, tumblr
National volume record for presidential race
Wesleyan Media Project
Colorado one of hottest ad markets in nation
Wesleyan Media Project
Most ad money spent in a few states● Colorado● Florida● Nevada● Ohio● Iowa● Denver was No. 2 media market, based on
Wesleyan analysis at the end of October
Denver ads (from Aug. 2 on)
Big differences - candidates● Obama campaign outspent Romney
campaign $10.3M to $6.1M● Nationwide, Obama spent $266M vs.
Romney's $105M ● Obama got started in spring 2012● Obama bought ad time early, through Nov. 6● Romney started late because of primaries● Romney bought ad time week-by-week
Big differences - outside spending● Super PACS supporting Romney outspent
those supporting Obama $7.7M to $3.9M● Five super PACS supported Romney -
American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Job Security
● Three groups supported Obama - Piorities USA, League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood
Super PACS nationally● Those five GOP groups spent $176.7M
through the end of October● The three Dem groups spent $36.5M● The GOP Super PACS kept Romney
competitive, most analysts would say
Congressional races● Total of $11.8 million at four Denver stations
from Aug. 2 on● $6.7M for three Democratic candidates (one
won)● $5.1M for three GOP candidates (two won)
Did ads make a difference?● Some academics question the effectiveness● Ads targeted undecided voters - about 10
percent - in fewer than a dozen states● "The effects of the ads are always quite
small in a presidential race" one told us● Another wrote that early Obama ads "did
little apparent damage" to Romney
What happened here?
Nate Silver & others say Colorado pushed Obama over
What mattered?● Voter registration efforts
● Micro-targeting efforts online, via email
● Get-out-the-vote campaigns
● Romney campaign's digital GOTV efforts faltered on Election Day
- Mary Chapin Carpenter
"The stars might lie, but the numbers never do."
In the end...● Advertising was a great financial boost for
Colorado television stations● Polls in the state didn't show a lot of
variation; Obama always had a narrow lead● Get-out-the-vote probably more effective use
of money than ads
But...● The ads go on...
○ Mayors Against Illegal Guns○ Americans for a Strong Defense○ American Petroleum Institute
● Expect more issue ads in 2013 as OFA becomes a nonprofit
● 2014 Senate and House races will be huge in Colorado, with more outside money
Questions?
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