poland - 4q19 macroeconomic outlook report · economic and financial report 4q19 3 index 14 3....

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Poland – 3Q20Macroeconomic Outlook Report

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Economic and Financial Report 3Q20

3

Index

14

3. Poland macroeconomic overview 10

4. Banking sector: general overview

245. Appendix

1. Executive summary 4

2. International overview 6

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4

During the third quarter of 2020, the Polish economy registered a -1.50% y/y GDPvariation rate, after recording a significant increase when compared to previousquarter. This partial recovery was mainly due to the relaxation of some of thecontainment measures during the beginning of the quarter. With regards to the labormarket, the unemployment rate in Poland increased compared to 2Q20, up to a rate of3.30%. While on the other hand, the Polish Zloty (PLN) appreciated against the Eurowith respect to 2Q20, registering a quarterly average exchange rate of 4.44 PLN/€.

Macroeconomic overview

During 3Q20, Polish GDP registered a significantincrease in its y/y variation rate of 6.70 p.p. whencompared to 2Q20, up to -1.50%.

This behavior was mainly due to the easing of thecontainment measures throughout the end of thesecond and beginning of the third quarter. Thisresulted in a re-activation of the economy,specially in private consumption and exports.

Nevertheless, according to the NBP (NarodowyBank Polski - Poland’s National Bank), the “V-shaped” recovery slowed down at the end of thequarter due to a gradual restoration of thecontainment measures worldwide as a result ofthe emergence of a second wave of Covid-19virus infections.

GDP ( y/y growth rate, %)

Regarding the domestic demand, its variation rate accelerated by 6.30 p.p. when compared to the previousquarter, up to a growth rate of -3.20% in 3Q20, remaining below pre-pandemic levels. This performance wasmainly due to the behavior of consumption, as investment remained subdued.

Regarding the external sector, both imports and exports showed signs of recovery compared to the secondquarter. However, exports recovered to pre-crisis levels, while imports remained slightly under the figuresregistered in the previous year.

During the third quarter, the Polish unemployment rate increased up to 3.30% compared to the previousquarter. On the other hand, during 3Q20, the y/y growth rate of employment remained constant at anegative growth rate of -0.70%.

During 3Q20, the growth rate of the Polish Consumer Price Index decelerated by 0.13 p.p., down to a y/ygrowth rate of 3.07% in 3Q20.

The zloty appreciated against the euro during the third quarter of 2020, and stood at an average exchangerate of 4.44 PLN/€, 0.06 PLN/€ lower than the one registered in 2Q20.

In the third quarter of 2020, WIG20, the main Polish stock index, registered an increase of 2.93%+50.11points) with respect to the previous quarter, up to an average value of 1,760 points during theperiod.

ProjectionYear over year

Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office) for quarterly data. Projections:

OECD Single-hit scenario.

1. Executive summaryMacroeconomic overview

4.003.24

2.00

-8.20

-1.50-3.51

2.92

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 2020 2021


5

During the third quarter of 2020, deposits from non-financial customers decreased their y/y growth rate,down to 15.04%, 1.72 p.p. lower than the rate reached in the previous quarter.

By typology of entity, the decrease experienced in total deposits down to 15.04% in 3Q20 was driven bythe deceleration of commercial banks.

The efficiency ratio of the total financial sector increased by 2.87 p.p. during the third quarter of 2020compared to the same quarter of the previous year, standing at 58.43%. This worse behavior was due tothe larger annual reduction in gross margin (-6.07%), against the decrease of operating costs (-1.22%).

Banking sector

Total Loans to the Non-Financial Sector (Year-on-year growth rate, %)

Source: Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF).

.

Banking sector

Total loans registered a 1.02% growth rate during the third quarter, 1.68 p.p. lowerthan the y/y growth rate recorded during the previous quarter. Concerning totaldeposits, its y/y growth rate decreased by 1.72 p.p., from 16.76% in 2Q20 down to15.04% in 3Q20. During the third quarter of 2020, the efficiency ratio in the Polishfinancial system increased by 2.87 p.p. when compared to the same quarter of theprevious year, standing at 58.43%.

During 3Q20, the growth rate of total loansgranted to the non-financial sector registered adeceleration of 1.68 p.p. when compared to2Q20, down to a growth rate of 1.02%.

The share of loans conceded for housingrepresented 51.05% of total loans. The amountof loans granted to corporations accounted for33.28% in 3Q20. Lastly, the amount of loansgranted to consumers stood at 15.67% of totalloans in this quarter.

During the third quarter of 2020, the ratio ofimpaired loans of the total sector increased by0.09 p.p., up to a rate of 6.99%.

5.78

4.44

5.84

2.70

1.02

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

6

2. International OverviewOECD & China

During the third quarter of 2020, there were signs of a global economic recovery owing tothe performance of certain developed economies and to the stronger than expectedrebound in China. However, a new wave of COVID-19 at the end of the quarter slowed downthe reopening of the economy and plunged some territories into partial lockdown, castingdoubt on the consolidation of this recovery.

In the Eurozone, one of the most affected regions by the pandemic, there was a significant upturn in activity, withits y/y GDP growth increasing by 10.39 p.p. compared to the second quarter, up to a rate of -4.38%. The easing ofthe containment measures carried out to contain the spread of the virus during the summer months boostedprivate consumption in most countries and renewed investment. This said, the growth levels reached were still farbelow those recorded before the pandemic. In addition, public policy support was essential to offset the effects ofthe crisis on the private sector, and especially on household consumption. Among the countries analyzed, therecoveries of France, Italy and Spain stood out, recording an increase in their y/y GDP growth rates of 14.63 p.p.,13.00 p.p. and 12.79 p.p., respectively, after the collapses that they registered in the previous quarter. Countriessuch as the UK and Germany also manifested recoveries, although to a lesser extent. Moreover, internationalagencies revised their projections with respect to those of June, softening both the fall of 2020 and the recovery of2021. According to the OECD, the GDP of the euro area would fall by 7.53% in 2020 and grow by 3.61% in 2021.

Meanwhile, the recovery of the U.S. economy exceeded expectations after becoming one of the countries mostseverely hit by the virus during the first half of the year. Despite the number of infections continuing to rise, theGDP growth rate accelerated up to -2.90% in the third quarter. According to the OECD, the US economy is expectedto contract by 3.70% in 2020 and grow at a rate of 3.19% in 2021. Japan, which recorded a y/y GDP growth of-5.89%, also saw an upward adjustment in its projections, with an expected GDP growth of -5.29% in 2020 and2.32% in 2021.

China followed the recovery initiated in the previous quarter and grew at a rate of 4.90% in the third quarter, withsignificant growth in the industrial and tertiary sectors. According to the Bank of Spain, the upturn in the activity ofthe Chinese economy has been reflected in the recovery of industry, which, at national level, returned to pre-crisislevels in April. In addition, the OECD economic forecasts for China were reviewed upwards in December,forecasting growth of 1.78% in 2020 and 8.04% in 2021.

Political and commercial tensions remained active on several fronts: between the United States and China,between European governments and technology platforms, and between the European Union and the UnitedKingdom in the light of an impending Brexit that has yet to be agreed upon. These tensions and the second waveof the pandemic at a global level added to the instability in an already uncertain context.

Inflation had an uneven behavior in advanced economies, with growth in countries such as France, Spain, Japan,USA and Canada; and decreases in others such as Germany, UK and Italy. The average inflation in the Eurozone fellto a negative growth rate (-0.30%), which had not occurred since 2016.

Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate continued to rise, with increases in all the countries analyzedexcept the U.S. (-4.20 p.p.) and Canada (-2.97 p.p.). The greatest increases in unemployment were recorded inFrance, Italy and Spain. In addition, Spain reported the highest unemployment rate among the countries analyzed,reaching a rate of 16.26% in the third quarter.

During 3Q20, the ratings remained constant for all countries analyzed.

To address the economic effects of the pandemic, central banks continued to display their monetary tools.Regarding the Fed, it maintained interest rates between 0% and 0.25% since March. Similarly, the ECB held interestrates at 0% and the deposit facility at -0.5%. In addition, the ECB recently expanded asset purchases under thePandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). In turn, the Central Bank of China continued to lower interest rateswhile expanding bond issuance.

Y/y credit growth accelerated in Italy, France, and Spain while it decelerated in the other countries. The decline inthe UK and the US was noteworthy, with decreases of 3.28 p.p. and 1.86 p.p. down to 2.21% and 3.81% respectively.

Deposits accelerated in all countries except the UK and the US, which experienced slowdowns of 2.36 p.p. and 0.91p.p., respectively. The greatest accelerations were in Germany and Italy: 1.92 p.p. and 1.77 p.p., reaching 7.90% and8.27% respectively.

Macroeconomic Overview

Financial Sector


7

3.004.63

12.80

2.18

7.48

2.59

6.40

3.642.21

3.81 5.01

7.90

17.15

10.69

7.45

14.20

8.279.20

7.58

5.21

19.89

11.11

Germany Canada China Spain France Italy Japan EMU UK USA Average

4.47

10.03

16.26

8.80 9.83

2.974.80

8.80 8.49 7.66

4.19

GER CAN SPA FR ITA JAP UK USA EMU OECD* CHI

-0.09

0.27

-0.50

0.33

-0.48

0.160.57

1.25

-0.30

1.272.27

GER CAN SPA FR ITA JAP UK USA EMUOECD* CHI

< 0%

0 - 2%

2 - 5%

> 5%

-

-

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3Q20 (%)

Loans

Deposits

LOANS AND DEPOSITS 3Q20 (year-over-year growth rate)

Increase since 2Q20

Constant since 2Q20

Decrease since 2Q20

GDP 3Q20 (% year-over-year growth rate)

-2.90%USA

-5.89%Japan

4.90%China

-9.58%UK

-4.38%EMU

-4.28%France

-4.02%Germany

-5.01%Italy

-5.16%Canada

-8.72%Spain

INFLATION RATE 3Q20 (%)

MOODY'S S&P Fitch

Germany Aaa AAA AAA

Canada Aaa AAA AAA

China A1 A+ A+

Spain Baa1 A A-

France Aa2 AA AA

Italy Baa3 BBB BBB-

Japan A1 A+ A

UK Aa2 AA AA-

USA Aaa AA+ AAA

LONG TERM RATINGS 3Q20

*OECD aggregated data from 3Q20 *OECD aggregated data from 3Q20

http://www.iconarchive.com/show/2014-world-cup-flags-icons-by-custom-icon-design/France-icon.html

http://www.iconarchive.com/show/2014-world-cup-flags-icons-by-custom-icon-design/France-icon.html

8

2. International OverviewLatAm

The y/y GDP growth of most Latin American countries collapsed in the first half of 2020when the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. However, during the third quarter of the year,activity picked up due to the gradual loosening of health control measures and the initialreopening of businesses in the countries analyzed. Unemployment continued to rise andaverage inflation fell during the period.

During 3Q20, the re-activation in global activity also took place in Latin America, and while the drops in activitycontinued to be significant in the period, they were milder compared to the first half of the year. All of the countriesanalyzed continued to register negative y/y GDP growth rates, although with significant increases compared to theprevious quarter. The most notable increases were in Mexico (+10.03 p.p. up to -8.63%), Peru (+20.35 p.p. up to-9.43%) and Brazil (+7.02 p.p. to -3.92%).

According to the International Monetary Fund economic outlook of October, Latin America will be affected in 2020to a lesser extent than previously expected, with a GDP contraction of -8.13%. In spite of this, it will be the secondmost economically affected region by the pandemic during the year, with a GDP contraction only surpassed by theEurozone. As for recovery projections for the year 2021, it is estimated that Latin America will have a moderaterecovery, in which it will grow at a rate of 3.57%.

According to the Bank of Spain, Latin American countries suffered more intensely from the pandemic crisis thancountries outside the region, in part due to certain structural vulnerabilities, such as lower institutional quality, highurbanization rates or high levels of labor informality. As a result, the region had to adopt more restrictive measuresthan other emerging regions. Throughout the year, these containment measures considerably affected the sectorswith the highest level of contact, such as tourism, hotels and restaurants and entertainment. Moreover, therecovery during the third quarter was very heterogeneous within the region, depending on factors such as thedegree of easing of lockdown measures, the level of government stimulus to businesses and households, andforeign trade with countries such as the United States and China. In particular, exports to the U.S. and Chinainfluenced the rebound of countries such as Brazil, Chile and Mexico, according to the S&P agency. Financialmarkets were also favored by the improving trend, while oil prices had an unstable behavior under the pressure ofdeclining oil demand on the one hand, and production disagreements among OPEC members on the other hand.

During 3Q20, inflation decreased in countries such as Colombia, Chile and Argentina, with Argentina's inflationfalling particularly sharply (-4.20 p.p. to 38.33%), although it still remained at much higher levels than the rest of theregion's economies. In contrast, Brazil, Peru and Mexico recorded rises in their inflation, with the largest increasebelonging to Mexico, from 1.12 p.p. to 3.89%, thereby joining Argentina as the only two countries with inflationrates above 3.00%.

Unemployment increased significantly throughout the region, with Colombia having the highest unemploymentrate (17.59%) despite registering a decrease compared to the previous quarter (-2.97 p.p.). The biggest increase wasrecorded in Peru (+3.36 p.p. to 16.16%). As such, the average unemployment rate for all the countries analyzedincreased during the third quarter of 2020.

Regarding the rating, all the Latin American countries analyzed maintained their ratings constant with theexception of Argentina, which went from an S&P rating of SD to CCC+ in September, and according to Fitch it wentfrom DR to CCC. Both ratings considered that there was substantial risk with Argentina's debt, but the prospects forrecovery have improved since the previous quarter.

Most central banks lowered official interest rates, in addition to increasing the system's liquidity and continuing topurchase financial assets to mitigate the slowdown in economic activity. These measures could be adopted partlybecause of the widespread disinflationary effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Loans in the countries analyzed grew in 3Q20 at a slower rate than in the previous quarter, with notable declines inthe lending growth rate in Chile (-5.58 p.p.), Colombia (-3.90 p.p.), Mexico (-2.62 p.p.) and Peru (-0.99 p.p.). Brazilwas the only country to accelerate its credit growth (+3.65 p.p.)

Deposit concession rates slowed their growth on average in Latin America, with decreases in growth in allcountries with the exception of Mexico (+1.00 p.p.) and Brazil (+4.34 p.p.), compared to 2Q20.

Macroeconomic Overview

Financial Sector


9

30.00

7.773.29

13.39

6.11

16.1212.78

47.88

13.02 12.95

37.92

15.50

24.12 25.23

Argentina** Chile Mexico Brazil Colombia Peru LatAm*

12.7917.59

4.93

16.1612.91

ARG BRA CHI COL MEX PER LatAm**

11.70 14.27

38.33

2.63 2.68 1.94 3.89 1.798.54

ARG BRA CHI COL MEX PER LatAm*

GDP 3Q20 (% Year-over-year growth rate)

< 0%

0 - 2%

2 - 5%

> 5%

LOANS AND DEPOSITS 3Q20 (Year-over-year growth rate)

LatAm*

-8.66%

Argentina

-10.24%

Mexico-8.63%

Colombia

-9.47%

Peru

-9.43%

Brazil

-3.92%

Chile -10.25%

Loans

Deposits

Increase since 2Q20

Constant since 2Q20

Decrease since 2Q20

LONG TERM RATINGS 3Q20

INFLATION RATE 3Q20 (%)UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 3Q20 (%)

MOODY'S S&P FITCH

Argentina Ca CCC+ CCC

Brazil Ba2 BB- BB-

Chile A1 A+ A

Colombia Baa2 BBB- BBB-

Mexico Baa1 BBB BBB-

Peru A3 BBB+ BBB+

*Latin America figures calculated as an average including Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.

** Most updated figures available at the date of the release correspond to 2Q20.

10

4.75 5.154.16

-3.51

2.92

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

4.83 5.38

3.15

-4.97

0.97

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3.301.30 1.70

-9.50

-3.20

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

DOMESTIC DEMAND (%)

3. Poland macroeconomic overview

In the third quarter of 2020, the Polish economy registered a -1.50% y/y GDP variationrate, despite recording a considerable increase when compared to previous quarter.This partial recovery of the economic activity was largely due to the relaxation of thecontainment measures throughout the beginning of the quarter. Nevertheless, thisrecovery slowed down at the end of the quarter due to new waves of infectionsworldwide.

During 3Q20, Polish GDP registered a significantincrease in its y/y variation rate (+6.70 p.p.compared to 2Q20), up to a rate of -1.50%, recordinga “V-shaped” partial recovery during this quarter.

This significant rebound in the economic activitywas motivated by the relaxation of some of theepidemic restrictions in the country along side thesupport from fiscal and monetary policy bothnationwide and abroad. These measures resulted ina considerable increase in consumption, consumerand business sentiment, boosting both domesticand exports. Nevertheless, this partial recovery inthe economic activity slowed down at the end of thequarter, due to redeployment of containmentmeasures to combat new waves of infections.Moreover, according to the OECD, economic activityis set to fall in the end of 2020.

In its December 2020 forecast, the OECD improvedits projections for Poland compared to the previousWEO for 2020. Nevertheless, it also reduced itsforecasts for the economic recovery for 2021. As aresult, the organization predicted a -3.51% fall in2020, and a recovery of 2.92% in 2021.

As mentioned before, due to the relaxation of thesanitary measures, specially during the end of 2Qand beginning of 3Q, and the support frommonetary and fiscal measures, demand partiallyrecovered, both on the internal and external front.Regarding domestic demand, its y/y variation rateaccelerated by 6.30 p.p. when compared to theprevious quarter, up to a growth rate of -3.20% in3Q20. This partial recovery was mainly due to theincrease in private consumption, as investmentremained subdued.

REAL GDP GROWTH (%)

Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office). Projections: OECD December 2020

Annual growth Year-on-year growth rate

Year-on-year growth rateAnnual growth

Source: GUS (Central Statistical Office). Projections: OECD December 2020

Projection

4.003.24

2.00

-8.20

-1.50

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Projection

Moreover, regarding the external sector, exports recovered from the fall recorded in the second quarter, andstood above pre-pandemic levels. Compared to 3Q19, exports grew at a rate of 3.33%. On the other hand,imports also grew compared to the previous quarter. Nevertheless, they remained slightly below pre-crisislevels.


11

2.80 2.83

4.53

3.203.07

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

1.981.69

2.31

3.41

2.32

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3.90 3.301.20

-10.90

0.40

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Year-on-year growth rate

In the third quarter of 2020, householdconsumption growth accelerated up to a rate of0.40%, after registering an increase of 11.30 p.p.when compared to the second quarter of 2020.

The OECD expects household consumptiongrowth to decrease down to -4.51% in 2020 andaccelerate in 2021 up to a rate of 1.65%.

According to the NBP inflation report, following asharp decline in the previous quarter due tosanitary restrictions, consumption rebounded inthe third quarter due to the lifting of theserestrictions, an improved sentiment and a slightincrease in income. Moreover, sales of durablegoods registered a sharp increase, speciallyfurniture, electronics and household appliance dueto the increase in remote work and study.

During this quarter, the growth rate of the PolishConsumer Price Index decelerated by 0.13 p.p. to ay/y growth rate of 3.07% in 3Q20.

The OECD forecasted an inflation rate of 3.41% in2020 and a later deceleration down to 2.32% in2021

According to the National Bank of Poland, the fallin inflation was mainly driven by the fall registeredin food price growth and relatively low globalagricultural commodity prices, amid the increaserecorded by fuel prices and non-food prices.

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION (%)

Annual growth

Annual growth

Source: GUS. Projections: OECD WEO December 2020.

Source: GUS. Projections: OECD WEO December 2020.

CPI (%)

Year-on-year growth rateProjection

Projection

4.48 4.30 3.88

-4.51

1.65

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

12

4.90 3.853.28 3.76

5.50

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

3.10 2.90 3.10 3.10 3.30

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

In the third quarter the Polish unemployment rateincreased compared to the second quarter of 2020,and stood at a rate of 3.30%.

The OECD projected the unemployment rate toincrease during the upcoming years, as a result ofthe economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.Thus, it projected Poland to record anunemployment rate of 3.76% in 2020 and 5.50% in2021.

According to the NBP, the impact of the pandemicon the labor market during the first half of the yearwas contained by government measures focusedon the labor market, which resulted in a limitedimpact on the labor market. Nevertheless, the labormarket is set to be one of the most deterioratedsectors of the economy.

During the third quarter of 2020, the y/y growthrate of employment remained constant, registeringa rate of -0.70%.

The National Bank of Poland claimed that in thethird quarter the fall in the number of employedpersons halted, along with a gradual return ofworking hours to pre-crisis levels.

Furthermore, the National Bank of Polandannounced that indicator pointed to a wage growthdue to the restoration of work intensity and non-wage benefits, along with the implementation ofthe previously suspended wage increases.

In the third quarter of 2020, the unemployment rate in Poland increased in comparisonwith 2Q20, up to a rate of 3.30%. On the other hand, the y/y growth rate of employmentremained constant when compared to the rate recorded in the second quarter of 2020,standing at a negative rate of -0.70%.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (% of all economically active)

EMPLOYMENT (%)

Source: GUS. Projections: OECD Single-hit scenario.

Source: GUS.

Quarterly rateAnnual rate

Annual growth

Projection

Macroeconomic Overview - Poland

Year-on-year growth rate

1.05

2.58

3.402.78

2.28

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2.10 2.20

0.60

-0.70 -0.70

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20


13

4.35 4.27 4.32 4.50 4.44

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

EXCHANGE RATE (PLN / € monthly average)

During the third quarter of 2020, the Polishsovereign bond yield curve stood lower than theone registered in 3Q19 for all maturities.

The largest difference was recorded by the 2Mbonds with a decrease of 1.56 p.p. with respectto 3Q19.

The yield curve of Polish bonds compared to3Q18 was also lower for all maturities. Thehighest decrease was recorded by 8Y bonds with1.93 p.p.. In spite of the significant decreases, allthe bond yields were above the 0% threshold.

The zloty appreciated against the euro duringthe third quarter of 2020, with the averageexchange rate standing at 4.44 PLN/€, 0.06 PLN/€(-1.33%) lower than the one registered in 2Q20.

Nevertheless, the exchange rate stood 0.09 p.p.higher than the one registered in 3Q19, whichentailed a y/y depreciation of 2.07%.

According to the NBP, the zloty exchange rateagainst the major currencies has been subject totemporary fluctuations, mainly as a result ofglobal factors.

During the third quarter of 2020, all of the Polish bond interest rates decreased whencompared to those reported during the same period of 2019 and 2018. The Polish Zloty(PLN) appreciated against the Euro with respect to 2Q20, and registered a quarterlyaverage of 4.44 PLN/€. Furthermore, the WIG20 registered an increase of 50.11 pointscompared to the previous quarter, reaching an average of 1,760 points in 3Q20.

In the third quarter of 2020, WIG20, the mainPolish stock index, registered an increase of2.93% (+50.11 points) with respect to theprevious quarter, up to an average of 1,760points during the period.

Compared to 3Q19, WIG20 decreased by 19.93%in 3Q20 (-438.00 points).

According to NBP, after a slump and the partialrebound in the third quarter, in recent monthsequity prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange,similarly to stock prices around the world, havebeen subject to volatile trends, mostlydepending on the uncertainty surrounding thepandemic.

Source: money.pl

Note: Annual values: 12-month closing value average.

Quarterly values: 3-month closing value average.

WIG20

Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP).

Source: National Bank of Poland (NBP) *Note: Annual and quarterly rates refers to

the annual and quarterly average of the monthly average rate.

Annual rate Quarterly rate

Annual value Quarterly average value

TREASURY YIELD CURVES RATES (%)

3Q18 3Q19 3Q20

4.19 4.38 4.24 4.27 4.30

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2,223

1,817

2,3432,282 2,252

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

0

1

2

3

4

1M 2M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 8Y 10Y

2,198 2,168

1,783

1,7101,760

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

14

4. Banking sector: general overviewLoans and leases

During the third quarter of 2020, the distribution oftotal loans by segment remained similar to the previousquarter.

The share of loans conceded for housing represented51.05% of total loans. The amount of loans granted tocorporations accounted for 33.28% in 3Q20. Lastly, theamount of loans granted to consumers stood at 15.67%of total loans in this quarter.

In terms of market share by type of lending institution,commercial banks continued as the largest segment(90.33%), after increasing 0.17 p.p. with respect to theirshare in 2Q20.

Cooperative banks´ loans amounted to 5.82% of totalloans, after increasing their share by 0.08 p.p. withrespect to 2Q20.

Regarding loans from branches of credit institutions,they recorded a share of 3.85% after a decrease of0.25 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter.

Total loans in the private sector amounted to PLN1,150,360 million during the third quarter, afterdecreasing by 0.22% with respect to the previousquarter.

During the third quarter of 2020, the mix of loans in the private sector showed a similardistribution to that of the previous quarter. Housing loans represented the largestsegment (51.05%), followed by corporate loans (33.28%) and consumer loans (15.67%).Regarding the market structure within the non-financial sector, commercial banksremained as the segment with the highest share (90.33%), followed by cooperativebanks (5.82%) and finally branches of credit institutions (3.85%).

LOANS MARKET SHARE TO THE NON-FINANCIAL SECTOR (Million PLN)



Loans distribution in private sector 3Q20 (%)

33.28%

51.05%

15.67%Corporate

Housing

Consumer

1,138,760 1,136,832 1,174,680 1,152,842 1,150,360

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

90.12%90.14%90.13% 90.16% 90.33%

5.97% 5.91% 5.67% 5.74% 5.82%

3.91% 3.95% 4.21% 4.10% 3.85%

Cooperative Banks

Commercial Banks

Branches of Credit Institutions

Total


15

3.82 4.315.65

2.681.25

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Total loans in the Polish financial system registered a 1.02% growth rate in 3Q20. Alltypes of entities recorded decelerations in their loan y/y growth rates when compared tothe previous quarter except for cooperative banks. Cooperative banks continuedpresenting the highest ratio of impaired loans standing at 8.40%, after a slightdeceleration with respect to 2Q20. Branches of credit institutions also experienced adecrease in their impairment ratio, and achieved once more the lowest ratio among thesegments analysed (4.14%).

During the third quarter of 2020, the ratio of impaired loans of the total sector increased by 0.09 p.p., up to a rate of 6.99%. Thisperformance was motivated by the increase registered in the impaired loans ratio of commercial banks, despite the slightdecrease registered by cooperative banks and branches of credit institutions.

Commercial banks experienced an increase in their impairment ratio of 0.09 p.p. up to 7.02%, when compared to 2Q20.Cooperative banks decreased their impairment ratio by 0.08 p.p. down to a rate of 8.40%. Branches of credit institutionsregistered the lowest impairment ratio of all three segments, standing at 4.14%, after a decrease of 0.04 p.p..

During 3Q20, the growth rate of total loans granted to the non-financial sector registered a deceleration of1.68 p.p. when compared to 2Q20, down to a growth rate of 1.02%.

Commercial banks recorded a deceleration of 1.43 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter standing at ay/y growth rate of 1.25%.

However, both cooperative banks and branches of credit institutions recorded negative growth rates duringthe period. Cooperative banks’ loans accelerated their growth by 0.41 p.p. up to -1.48%, while branches ofcredit institutions recorded a fall of 10.84 p.p. with respect to 2Q20, down to -0.53%.

TOTAL LOANS TO THE NON-FINANCIAL SECTOR (Year-on-year, %)

Total Loans Commercial Banks Cooperative BanksBranches of Credit

Institutions

RATIO OF IMPAIRED LOANS (%)

Source: Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) and own analysis.

Total Sector Commercial Banks Cooperative BanksBranches of Credit

Institutions

Financial Sector - Poland


Indicates discontinuity in the graph.

5.784.44

5.84

2.701.02

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.52 2.810.62

-1.89 -1.48

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

105.34

10.41 18.60 10.31

-0.53

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

6.77 6.60 6.62 6.90 6.99

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

6.786.53 6.64 6.93 7.02

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

8.88 8.96 8.61 8.48 8.40

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

3.234.67

3.63 4.18 4.14

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

16

5.55 5.749.19

8.23 8.30

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

5357,13

-5,10

2,57 0,72

-3,15

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

During the third quarter of 2020, housing loans registered an increase of 0.07 p.p. intheir y/y growth rate when compared to the previous quarter. This performance wasexplained by the increase recorded in loans granted by commercial banks. Totalhousing loans registered a slight decrease in the ratio of impaired loans, recordingduring the period a ratio of 2.40%.

The impairment ratio of housing loans decreased during this quarter by 0.01 p.p. when compared to the previous quarter,standing at 2.40%, the lowest among all loan segments to the non-financial sector.

This performance was due to the 0.01 p.p. decrease recorded by commercial banks, down to an impairment ratio of 2.39%, aswell as the deceleration of 0.04 p.p. registered by cooperative banks. The latter remained as the entities with the lowest ratioof housing impaired loans (1.37%).

In turn, branches of credit institutions registered an increase of 0.11 p.p. up to ratio of impairment of 3.70%.

In the third quarter of the year, loans granted for house purchases grew at a y/y rate of 8.30%, which was 0.07p.p. higher than the growth rate observed in 2Q20.

This performance was mainly driven by the acceleration in the growth rate of housing loans granted bycommercial banks, which was of 0.08 p.p. up to a rate of 8.47%.

On the other hand, cooperative banks and branches of credit institutions recorded decelerations in theirhousing loans’ growth rate, of 0.04 p.p. and 3.87 p.p. down to 10.45% and -3.15%, respectively.

According to the NBP, during the third quarter most of the institutions changed certain lending conditions,easing them with respect to the last conditions in place.


HOUSING LOANS (Year-on-year, %)

RATIO OF IMPAIRED LOANS - HOUSING LOANS (%)


Institutions


Institutions


Indicates discontinuity in the graph.

2.42 2.54

9.32 8.39 8.47

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

13.47 14.03 11.70 10.49 10.45

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.402.33 2.36 2.41 2.40

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.39 2.31 2.36 2.40 2.39

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

1.59 1.57 1.48 1.41 1.37

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

3.52 3.813.50 3.59 3.70

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20


17

11.07 10.25 10.67 11.31 11.35

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

11.40 10.53 10.98 11.66 11.72

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

5.90 5.86 5.76 5.62 5.45

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

4.02 4.13 3.94 3.96 3.85

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

During the third quarter of 2020, consumer loans growth rate accelerated to a rate of1.77%, shifting from a negative growth to a positive one. This performance was mainlydue to the increases registered in commercial banks and cooperative banks. Total ratioof impaired consumer loans recorded a ratio of 11.35%, after a mild acceleration drivenby the increase of commercial banks.

The impairment ratio of consumer total loans registered a 0.04 p.p. increase during the third quarter of the year whencompared to the previous quarter, standing at 11.35%. Consumer loans recorded the highest impairment ratio among all loantypes in the non-financial sector.

By segments, commercial banks increased their ratio of impaired loans when compared to the previous quarter, standing at11.72% (+0.06 p.p.). In turn, cooperative banks recorded a decrease of 0.17 p.p. down to 5.45%. Branches of credit institutionsalso decreased their ratio of impaired loans by 0.11 p.p. down to 3.85%.

The growth rate of consumer loans increased by 3.08 p.p., up to a positive y/y growth rate of 1.77% in thethird quarter of 2020.

In 3Q20, commercial banks accelerated their growth rate of consumer loans by 3.24 p.p., up to a final rate of1.85%, and cooperative banks’ loan growth also accelerated (+0.13 p.p.), although it remained in negativelevels of growth (-6.61%).

Finally, branches of credit institutions decreased their growth rate by 0.45 p.p. down to 16.29%.

According to the NBP, during the third quarter, banks tightened lending policy in the segment of consumerloans, however the magnitude of the tightening was considerably smaller than in the previous quarter.



Indicates discontinuity in the graph

CONSUMER LOANS (Year-on-year, %)

RATIO OF IMPAIRED LOANS - CONSUMER LOANS (%)


Institutions


Institutions


3.82 4.60 3.34

-1.31

1.77

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.67 4.45 3.27

-1.39

1.85

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.39 2.34

-2.80-6.74 -6.61

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

215.45

20.20 22.47 16.74 16.29

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

18

3.11 2.013.68

0.07

-3.23

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

-1.81 -1.24-4.11

-6.59-6.22

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

37.94

18.11

26.83

14.53

-0.94

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Total corporate loans registered a deceleration in their y/y growth rate during the thirdquarter of the year, moving from a positive growth to a negative one, thus standing at-3.21% in 3Q20. This was due to the deceleration experienced in the growth rates of alltypes of entities except for cooperative banks. The impairment ratio of corporate loansstood at 9.00%, which was 0.29 p.p. higher than the ratio recorded in the previousquarter.

The impairment ratio of corporate loans of the total sector increased during this quarter. Impaired loans accounted for 9.00%of total corporate loans, showing an increase of 0.29 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter.

Commercial banks increased their impairment ratio of corporate loans by 0.29 p.p. reaching a ratio of 9.01%. Additionally,cooperative banks recorded an acceleration of 0.10 p.p. reaching a ratio of 17.30%, during 3Q20, standing as the type ofinstitution with the highest ratio of impaired corporate loans.

Branches of credit institutions recorded a ratio of 3.46%, after decreasing by 0.16 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter.



CORPORATE LOANS (Year-on-year, %)

RATIO OF IMPAIRED LOANS - CORPORATE LOANS (%)


Institutions


Institutions

During the third quarter, corporate loans growth rate decreased down to a rate of -3.21%, 3.96 p.p. lowerthan the 0.75% rate registered in the previous quarter. All types of institutions showed negative growth ratesin their corporate loans during this period.

Commercial banks recorded a decrease of 3.30 p.p. when compared to the growth rate recorded in theprevious quarter, standing at -3.23%. Cooperative banks increased by 0.37 p.p. up to -6.22%. Meanwhile,branches of credit institutions registered a significant deceleration in their y/y growth rate of 15.47 p.p.,down to -0.94%.

According to the NBP, in the third quarter of 2020, most banks have not changed their standards oncorporate loans.

4.76 2.904.84

0.75

-3.21

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

8.41 8.40 8.298.71 9.00

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

8.40 8.30 8.32 8.72 9.01

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

17.87 18.1417.24 17.20 17.30

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.083.21 2.85

3.62 3.46

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20


19

1,215,651 1,269,780 1,306,923 1,388,304 1,398,481

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

89.37% 89.15% 89.83% 89.90% 89.64%

9.59% 9.73% 9.03% 8.89% 8.97%

1.04% 1.13% 1.14% 1.21% 1.39%

Cooperative Banks

Commercial Banks


Total

During the third quarter of 2020, the amount of total deposits from the non-financial sector increased in thePolish financial system when compared to the same quarter of the previous year, registering a total volumeof PLN 1,398,481 million.

In terms of market share, commercial banks continued to register the largest share, representing 89.64% oftotal deposits. This reflected a decrease of 0.26 p.p. with respect to the share recorded during the previousquarter. On the other hand, cooperative banks increased their share by 0.08 p.p. (up to 8.97%), and branchesof credit institutions also increased it by 0.18 p.p. with respect to the previous quarter, up to a share of 1.39%.

In the third quarter of 2020, the volume of total deposits from the Polish non-financialsector increased by PLN 10,177 million with respect to 2Q20. In terms of market share,commercial banks decreased their share (-0.26 p.p.), which stood at 89.64% whencompared to the previous quarter. They remained as the institution segment with thelargest portion of total deposits from the non-financial sector.


DEPOSITS MARKET SHARE FROM THE NON-FINANCIAL SECTOR (Million PLN)


Deposits

20

Total deposits decelerated its y/y growth rate by 1.72 p.p., from 16.76% in 2Q20 to15.04% in the third quarter of 2020. This performance was mainly driven by thedecrease in the growth rate of commercial banks, which registered a decrease of2.24 p.p. compared to the previous quarter.

During the third quarter of 2020, deposits from the non-financial sector decreased their y/y growth rate,down to 15.04%, 1.72 p.p. lower than the rate reached in the previous quarter.

This deceleration was driven by the decrease in the y/y growth of commercial banks’ deposits by 2.24 p.p.compared to the previous quarter, down to 15.39%.

On the other hand, the growth rate of deposits of cooperative banks and branches of credit institutionsincreased by 0.42 p.p. and 22.49 p.p. registering a rate of 7.60% and 53.70% respectively. All three types ofinstitutions showed positive growths rates of deposits during the third quarter of the year.

DEPOSITS TAKEN FROM NON-FINANCIAL CUSTOMERS (Year-on-year, %)

Total Deposits Commercial Banks Cooperative BanksBranches of Credit

Institutions


Deposits

10.30 9.6011.73

16.76 15.04

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

10.15 9.4812.22

17.63 15.39

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

8.69 8.672.92 7.18 7.60

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

47.76

30.15

67.31

31.21

53.70

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20


21

Regarding the type of customer, the decrease experienced in total deposits down to 15.04% in 3Q20 wasdriven by the behavior of households and corporate institutions.

Households’ deposits experienced a decrease of 1.92 p.p. in their y/y growth rate, registering a growth of10.27%. As for corporate institutions, they also experienced a deceleration in their growth rate of 1.64 p.p.down to 30.15%. However, non-profit institutions experienced an increase of 1.81 p.p., registering a rate of8.55%.

As stated by the NBP, income from bank deposits decreased. However, in spite of the decrease of the NBPinterest rate during this quarter, as a consequence of the pandemic, agents increased their savings. Themembers of the monetary policy council signal that the decrease of the deposits’ income may drive agents tolook for other (probably riskier) forms of investment.

CUSTOMER DEPOSITS (Year-on-year, %)

Total Deposits Household Corporate Non-profit Institutions



10.30 9.6011.73

16.7615.04

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

11.33 9.68 9.6012.19

10.27

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

7.669.99

19.43

31.7930.15

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

6.332.69

0.83

6.748.55

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

22

58.2854.45 56.42 53.61 53.36

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

94.46 90.52 90.17 83.29 82.89

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

93.6789.53 89.88 83.04 82.26

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

During the third quarter of 2020, the LTD ratio of the total sector experienced adecrease of 0.78 p.p. with respect to 2Q20, standing at 82.26%. This performance wasdriven by the higher decrease registered in total deposits growth rate (-1.72 p.p.)against the deceleration of the growth rate of total loans (-1.68 p.p.). The whole systemstood as a net borrower, influenced by commercial and cooperative banks.

During the third quarter of 2020, the LTD ratio of non-financial customers registered a decrease of 11.41 p.p.down to 82.26% when compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This reflected the stronger growthof deposits (+15.04%) compared to the growth of loans (+1.02%) from 3Q19 to 3Q20.

All types of institution decreased their loans-to-deposits ratios in this period when compared to 3Q19.Commercial banks recorded a decrease of 11.57 p.p. standing at 82.89% while cooperative banks registereda 4.92 p.p. decrease, standing at 53.36%. Finally, branches of credit institutions ratio decreased by 124.45 p.p.down to a ratio of 228.24%, mainly explained by the significant y/y growth of deposits (+53.70%).

Thus, the whole system stood as net borrower with a ratio of 82.26%, driven by commercial and cooperativebanks which registered a larger volume of deposits than loans. On the other hand, branches of creditinstitutions were the only type of entity to register a ratio above 100%, thus standing as net lenders (largervolume of loans than deposits).


TOTAL LOANS / TOTAL DEPOSITS (for non-financial customers, %)


Institutions

LTD Ratio

352.69

313.59333.16

280.83

228.24

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20


23

3.82 3.753.55 3.37

3.223.63 3.56

3.35 3.19 3.04

3.68

3.563.50

3.193.05

6.23

5.375.00

5.42 5.47

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

2.12 2.09 2.28 1.99 1.881.94 1.90 2.10 1.81 1.70

2.40 2.37 2.362.28 2.22

5.05

4.294.47

4.41 4.45

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

55.56 55.59

64.3759.10 58.43

53.36 53.25

62.6856.73 55.82

65.26 66.57 67.2171.60 73.02

81.04 79.86

89.39

81.46 81.38

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

During the third quarter of 2020, the efficiency ratio in the Polish financial systemincreased by 2.87 p.p. when compared to 3Q19, standing at 58.43%. In y/y terms, grossmargin decreased by 6.07%, whilst operating expenses decreased by 1.22%.

The efficiency ratio of the total financial sector increased by 2.87 p.p. during the third quarter of 2020compared to the same quarter of the previous year, standing at 58.43%. The worsening of efficiency wasdue to a larger annual reduction in gross margin (-6.07%) than the decrease in operating costs (-1.22%).

By type of entity, this performance was driven by the increase experienced by all type of entities.Commercial banks remained the most efficient entity (55.82%).

However, when compared with the previous quarter, the total efficiency ratio decreased by 0.66 p.p..

Total sector GM/ATA decreased its ratio by 0.60 p.p. with respect to 3Q19, while OE/ATA decreased to alesser extent, by 0.24 p.p.. Gross margin over assets stood at 3.22% in 3Q20, whilst operating expenditureover average total assets stood at 1.88%.

Efficiency

EFFICIENCY (Quarterly, %)

Gross Margin

Operating ExpensesSource: Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) and own analysis.

COST / INCOME RATIO

Total Sector Commercial Banks Cooperative Banks

GROSS MARGIN AND OPERATING EXPENSES (% growth since the same quarter of the previous year)

GM / ATAs OE / ATAs

Total Sector

Commercial Banks

Cooperative Banks



24

SOURCES

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW

National Bank of Poland (NBP): http://www.nbp.pl

Central Statistical Office (GUS): http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus

Eurostat: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

World Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/

International Monetary Fund (IMF): http://www.imf.org

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD: http://www.oecd.org/home/

European Central Bank: http://www.ecb.int/ecb/html/index.es.html

Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina: www.bcra.gov.ar

Central Bank of Chile:www.bcentral.cl

Bank of Mexico:www.banxico.org.mx

Central Bank of Brazil:www.bcb.gov.br

National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia (DANE): http://www.dane.gov.co/

Bank of the Republic of Colombia: http://www.banrep.gov.co/

Central Bank of Venezuela:www.bcv.org.ve

Central Reserve Bank of Peru:www.bcrp.gob.pe

BBVA Research: http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/ketd/esp/index.jsp

5. Appendix

FINANCIAL SECTOR

KNF (Polish Financial Supervision Authority): http://www.knf.gov.pl/en/

GLOSSARY

Cost / income ratio: Operating expenses / operating income.

Gross margin: Net interest income + Net fee and commission income + Dividend income + Net trading income and revaluation + Gains (losses) from other financial securities + Other operating income (expenses).

Ratio of impaired loans: Impaired claims / Total loans.

Return on equity (ROE): Net profit after tax / total equity.

Return on assets (ROA): Net profit after tax / total assets.

http://www.nbp.pl/

http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/

http://www.worldbank.org/

http://www.imf.org/

http://www.oecd.org/home/

http://www.ecb.int/ecb/html/index.es.html

http://www.bcra.gov.ar/

http://www.bcentral.cl/

http://www.banxico.org.mx/

http://www.bcb.gov.br/

http://www.dane.gov.co/

http://www.banrep.gov.co/

http://www.bcv.org.ve/

http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/

http://www.bbvaresearch.com/KETD/ketd/esp/index.jsp

d


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