Poblacion y medio ambiente en America Latina: Procesos demograficos a multiples escalas y

cambios en la tierra

June 23, 2016

David López-CarrDepartment of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara

•XIII REUNIÓN NACIONAL DE INVESTIGACIÓN DEMOGRÁFICA EN MÉXICO

Global Demographic Transition: Urbanization & Aging

World Population: Average Annual Increase For Each Decade, 1750-2100 (projected) Source: "World

Population in Transition", Population Bulletin, by Thomas W. Merrick and PRB

0

20

40

60

80

100

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Iincr

ease

(mill

ions

) Developing RegionsDeveloped Regions

Global Deforestation drivers are at once the same and changing

8,000 YEARS AGO

Demographic Transition

Variation in Latin America

While urbanization remains a predominant demographic process globally scale and place matter:

R01 Pop-Env. Study in the Ecuadorian Amazon: TFR fell from close 7 to nearly 4 during the 1990s. Why?

1967 Oil discovery

Road and pipeline construction

Spontaneous Settlement from rapid In-Migration (1970’s-

present)

Development of Frontier towns, markets, roads, and services

Rapid forest clearing & biodiversity loss

Study Site

Two Places, 2 TFRsLago Agrio TFR <4 Indigenous communities TFR >7

The region’s central city photos: Joe Messina

Two Developing Worlds: The World is now 50% Urban but…• Argentina/Chile/Uruguay – 90% Urban• Guatemala, Ecuador, Bolivia – 50-65% Urban• And within these countries there is VAST variation

• These two worlds are associated with two distinct Pathways of Food Production and Consumption:

• Pathway 1: Rural producers: Remaining high population growth, and persistent host-host and host-vector diseases. The pace and magnitude of this group shifting to the 2nd group (largely vis a vis migration) will have huge implications for total world population, and the health of people and the planet.

• Pathway 2: Urban consumers: Meat consumption and processed goods consumption increasing with rapidly urbanizing middle class associated with falling fertility and increasing diabetes and cardio-vascular disease.

What are Some Land Use and Forest Transition Implications?....

Estimated annual rate of forest change (in km2) from 2001 to 2010 in the 2,513 municipalities for which a significant change took place.

Demographic Change in Latin America

Total population change (1990 – 2000)

1990 – 426,465,0212000 – 503,388,073diff 76,923,052

Municipality level change# of municipalities: 16,052# with negative growth : 4,200% with negative growth: 26.1%Year

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Popu

latio

n x

106

100

200

300

400

500

Rural Urban

Data from FAOSTATS Our analyses

Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr,, Levy, Grau, et al. (2010). Under review at Science. Global Land Project Open Science Meeting. Arizona State University. 17-19 October.

What is the relationship between population change and woody vegetation change? Nada at the municipal level!

Population change (1990-2000)

-20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Woo

dy v

eget

atio

n ch

ange

200

1-20

09

(r - c

orre

latio

n co

effic

ient

)

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

ns

p <0.1

p <0.1

n = 16,052, F = 0.21, P = 0.64, r2 = 0.000

Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010).

So what is driving forest conversion?...

So we can conclude that Demographic Transitions

remain unrelated to Forest Transitions

Right?....

Trop

and

Sub

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Moi

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road

For

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ad F

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and

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and

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and

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rass

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and

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eric

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ann

ual w

oody

cha

nge

(200

1 - 2

009)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Pantanal

Pampas

Mangrove

Latin American Forest Transition What municipalities are gaining and losing woody forest cover?

Aide, Clarke, Grau, Levy, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010)..

What Crops Predominate Here?

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Glo

bal p

ig a

nd p

oultr

y pr

oduc

tion

(tonn

es x

106

)

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Year1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Sout

h Am

erica

n so

ybea

n

prod

uctio

n (h

a x

106 )

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2001-2009163,326 km2

Aide, Clarke, Lopez-Carr, et al. (2010)..

Urbanization and Meat

Population Trends are very much related to forest trends but increasingly with greater distance in space and time between population drivers and land change outcomes (e.g. Carr, 2004; Lambin et al 2010).

Spatio-temporal scale is one analytical lens to examine coupled population-resource processes, the household as producer and consumer is another (e.g. Chowdhury and Turner 2009).

Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics

Urban or International Destinations

Rural Destination

Agricultural Extensification

Agricultural Intensification

Return to Top of Chart

MigrationFertility regulation

Off-farm Labor

Household Responses

Local Variation

Land Management

Proximate and Underlying Causes of Pathway Transitions at HH Level:Multiphasic Household Responses

Other response??

cropsforest

FARM UNOCCUPIED FOREST

SURROUNDING FARMS

Poverty-driven forest conversion tends to target unoccupied forestland, the external frontier. Commercial agriculture often follows land consolidation and thus may or may not be converting old growth forest (internal frontier)

Internal (place) versus external (space) forest frontiers.

Now let’s look at the sub-national level: Migration, Fertility, and LUCC in Guatemala and the Sierra de Lacandon National Park

0 200 Miles

N

EW

SSierra de Lacandón

National Park

Maya Biosphere Reserve

Guatemala

Petén

Land for People (% of Land in Forest)

…for People without Land (Population Density)

The SLNP boasts the richest biodiversity in the Maya Biosphere Reserve.

The Naranjo Road in 1987

The SLNP suffers some of the highest rates of population growth and agricultural expansion in the MBR

0 20 Miles

N

EW

S

RoadsForestForest Cleared < 1990Forest Cleared > 1990Water

U. Maine Spatial Analysis Lab

a. Interviews with community leaders in 28 communities responsible for LUCC in the SLNP.

b. Surveys with several hundred men and women from 9 communities.

Research MethodsField Work 1998

Población y Uso de la Tierra en el Parque Nacional de LacandónCuestionario de hogar - Para Jefes de Hogar

Nombre:

Comunidad:

Encuestador:

Seccion I: La familia y la casaQué edad tienen? Ud._______ Su esposa (o pareja)__________

En que año se casaron (se unieron)?______

Ha vivido casado o unido con otra mujer antes?01 - SI 02 - NO [salte a la siguiente pregunta]

Cúantos hijos tuvo Ud. antes de vivir con su actual mujer?______

Cúantas personas viven en la casa actualmente? [indique hombre “H” o mujer “M”]edad hijos/as Hijos que están

estudiandohermanos/as padres tios/as Suegros/as cuñados/as otros,

especifique0-56-1212-1818-4950 o más

A qué trabajo le dedica más tiempo?01 - agricultor 02 - extractor de recursos boscosos 03 - negociante 04 - otro, explique

Quién maneja los ingresos de la familia? 01 - el hombre 02 - la mujer 03 - los dos

Su religión es: 01 - Católica 02 - Evangélica 03 - Ninguna 04 - Otra, especifique

Cuando era niño, su mamá le hablaba en qué idioma?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________

Y ahora, Ud. habla qué idioma en casa?01 Español 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro, especifique__________

Población y Uso de la Tierra en el Parque Nacional de LacandónCuestionario de hogar - Para Jefes de Hogar (Q’eqchí)

La K’ab’á:

K’aleb’aal;

Laa K’ab’á Laat laj Isihom Esil:

Jun Raqal: Li Junkab’al ut li ochoch.Jarub’chihab’ wankaawe? La Sun aatin jarub’ ahihab’ wankre

Li chihab’ xex Sumla wi’ Maraj li xelaq’wi’ erib’)?_____01 – He’ He’ 02 – Inka’

`jarubi la Kok’al laat naq maji’ nakat wan rik’in li tz’aqal?______

Ani nach’eok relix tuminal lijunkab’al? 01 – li winq 02 – li Ixq 03 – Sa’wiib’al.

La Paab’aal: 01 - Katoolk 02 - Wanjeel 03 - Manjun 04 - juna, chik

Naq toj kac’inot chaq K’achi aat’ b’aal nakat’ raatinalui?01 Kaxlan chi’ 02 Q’eqchi 03 Otro,

especifique__________

ut najwak?01 laa’at K’aru 02 la waatina’b’aal 03 nakat aatinak Sá la

wochoch__________

Ma xat hulak ? Sá Rochóchil li tzolok

Toj K’a chi Raqalil xa tzolok?___________

Ma nakat yaab’asinkru hu ut Manakat Tz’iib’ak? 01 – He’ He’ 02 –Inka’

Ma tawaj naq eb’la Kok’al te’ tzoloq? 01 – He’ He’ 02 – Inka’

[ Wi’ tsume hehe’ “| toj k’a chi Raqalil? a ) toj b’ar truuq b’

bar nuchal la si’ ? 01 sa’li kioche Sa’ lin K’anjelab’aal 02 sá lin parseel 03 sálinalk’al Reliwochoch’ 04 Sá K’iche?)

Laurel Suter’s 2009 Household Samples 1 & 2

Sample 1: Follow up 1998

Households (indicates total number interviewed in 1998)

Sample 2: Randomly selected

households244 (247) 278

Forest, 19.2Fallow, 7.1

Maize, 4.9

Frijol, 0.4

Pasture, 1.3

O ther, 1.0Abandoned, 0.5

1998:Average Land Use in Hectares. Farm Size = 34 ha.

Maize, 6.1

Frijol, 1.0

Pasture, 10.9

Abandoned 1.0Other crops 1.1

Forest, 12.8

Fallow, 23.6

2009: Average Land Use in HectaresFarm Size = 49 ha.

Political-economic Factors:

Proximity to Markets

and Capital MatterPeten’s Capital, Flores: Home of 30+ NGOs

Squatter Settlement in the SLNP

Land Title

More Ag. Expansion.

Ecological Factors: Spacious Space or Few people?

• Population growth high but population density low

• Forest abundance = Expansive swidden and avoidance of farming steep slopes

Place and Space: Maya & Maize vs. Ladino & Cattle

•25% Maya

Maya Farmers More Extensive Farming. But…

Demographic Factors:

• 10% Annual Growth mid 1990s Larger Communities More Agricultural Expansion in 1990s.

• 8 Births per Woman

Larger Households More Agricultural Expansion.

Indigenous Large Family Preference

Desired Family Size?

Education link? Religion?

• Processes in distant places - skewed land distribution, demographic pressures, poverty, war - lead to LUCC in another place

Where did the SLNP colonists come from and why from there?

Macro-Scale demographic, political-economic, social, and ecological dynamics

Urban or International Destinations

Rural Destination

Agricultural Extensification

Agricultural Intensification

Return to Top of Chart

MigrationFertility regulation

Off-farm Labor

Household Responses

Local Variation

Land Management

Migration to the SLNP

Other response??

Departamentos of Guatemala and Migration Origin Municipios

Morales

Fray Bartolomé de las Casas

Nueva Concepción

Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html

Jutiapa

Gualan

Los Amates

San Luis

Dolores

Sierra de LacandónNational Park

Cobán

Mazatenango

RetalhuleuEl Asintal

Santa Cruz Mulúa

San Martín Zapotitlán

Iztapa

San Miguel DuenasMunicipios in red are the three case studies explained in greater detail.

Origin Areas Migration DataPercent of adults permanently out-migrating from 1989 to 1999 Approximate %

Men 10%

Women 10%

Principal Destinations Primary employment

Guatemala City Factory or service worker 35%

Peten Acquire land for farming 35%

USA Factory, service, or agricultural worker 10%

Other Plantation laborer 10%

Principal pushes/pulls

Work 35%

Land 30%

Improve living standard/education 20%

Natural disasters/Env. Degradation 10%

Why did people migrate to the MBR?

Ecological Factors

Socio-economic Factors

Demographic Factors

Political-economic Factors

Two Municipios: Fixed vs. Shrinking (Expanding) Space

Nueva Concepción

Original map source: http://www.inguat.net/redtp/map/indexe.html

Sierra de LacandónNational Park

Morales

Land Distribution the Answer?

Jobs the Answer?

Two reasons why place matters:

Pacific Coast: Nueva Concepción

Southeastern Coastal Plains: Morales

Amanecer o Atardecer sobre los bosques latinoamericanos?

Hacia donde van las transiciones demograficas y medio ambientales?

El FinFin

Two Big Geographical Framing Concepts for Population-Land Transitions:

1) Available agricultural land is a diminishing and constraining resource. Human-land relations are critically and indissolubly linked to demography, health, economic sustainability, and environmental integrity/conservation

2) Space (scale) and place matter!

Two Big Framing Concepts Integrating Population and Environment:

1) (Despite rapid urbanization) Remote rural demographic transitions will have a disproportionate effect on future population size and distribution

2) How many people eating what produced where will describe the vast majority of future land changes on the face of the earth.

Roads collapse space

2002

1999

South America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land

4.6% 8.4% 7.7%

23.9%26.3% 30.3%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

1961 1981 2001

Poisson Regression ModelsVariables Model 1 Model 2Intercept 11.6*** 11.69***Demographic factorsWoman's age in 1990 -0.11*** -0.12***Total no. of live births prior to 1990 0.16*** 0.14***Total no. of infants died prior to 1990 -0.24*** -0.22***Desired more children in 1990 (Yes / No) 0.27Contraceptive use in 1990 (Yes / No) -0.28 -0.36*Contraceptive use in 1999 (Yes / No) -0.12

Woman's education ] 0.29* 0.24Socio-economic factorsLand title in 1990 (no title vs. title) 0.09Change in land from 1990-1999^ 0.005* 0.0041990 Assets owned -0.04 -0.051999 Assets owned 0.02Distance to community center (KM) 0.002Electricity access

Electricity in 1990 and 1999 -0.69 -0.87**Scale 1.09 1.08

Household migration, retention and destinations from Laurel Suter’s survey

Same town

Nearby frontier

Santa Elena

or nearOther Peten

Other Guate-mala

Guate-mala City USA

Unknown location

HH no longer exists

Un-known person Total

Total 155 23 13 16 15 2 3 11 6 3 247

Total % 63% 9% 5% 6% 6% 1% 1% 4% 2% 1%

Current location of Household