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UNEP, Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost, Draft Version 5, January 22, 2012

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Executive Summary 6

Permafrost is perennially frozen ground under 25% of the land surface in the northern 7 hemisphere. Permafrost distribution and degradation are controlled by air temperature and to a lesser 8 extent, snow characteristics. The primary measurements for long-term monitoring are the permafrost 9 temperature and the active layer thickness (annual surface thaw depth). Observations indicate 10 permafrost temperature has risen and active layer thickness has increased, although increases in active 11 layer thickness are less conclusive. These observations indicate large-scale thawing of permafrost 12 may have already started. 13

Arctic and alpine temperatures are expected to increase at twice the global rate and 14 projections of permafrost degradation indicate substantial loss of permafrost by 2100. Widespread 15 permafrost degradation will change species distribution and risks of fire and disease across the Arctic. 16 Permafrost degradation will increase risks associated with rock fall and erosion, particularly in 17 mountainous regions. Damage to infrastructure in the Arctic and mountainous regions, such as 18 buildings and roads, will sustain significant social and economic impacts. 19

Permafrost contains enough frozen carbon to double the current atmospheric CO2 20 concentrations. Carbon emissions from thawing permafrost will amplify warming due to the burning 21 of fossil fuels. Carbon emissions from thawing permafrost are irreversible and large enough to 22 significantly influence global climate. Global strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions must account 23 for permafrost carbon emissions or risk overshooting the target climate. 24

The following policy recommendations will minimize the economic, social, and 25 environmental impacts of warming permafrost: 26

1) Institutionalize Permafrost Monitoring: National governments should expanded, 27 institutionalized, and run the current networks to monitor permafrost to ensure sufficient 28 high quality measurements to make informed policy decisions. 29

2) Allocate for Permafrost Carbon Emissions: Global treaties or strategies to reduce fossil 30 fuel emissions should include a 15% annual allocation to account for carbon emissions 31 from thawing permafrost. 32

3) Plan for Adaptation: Nations with substantial permafrost should develop plans to 33 minimize the risks, damage, and costs of permafrost degradation. 34

4) Commission Special Report on Permafrost: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 35 Change should commission a special report to assess potential permafrost degradation 36 and how carbon emissions from thawing permafrost would influence global climate. 37


3

Foreword 38

Out of the world’s entire population, few know what permafrost is and fewer still have ever 39 seen - let alone set foot upon - actual permafrost. Yet permafrost is found beneath 24% of exposed 40 land in the Northern Hemisphere. Permafrost may hold the key to the planet’s future because it 41 contains huge stores of carbon that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current 42 global warming and even propel us to a warmer world beyond a threshold of no return. 43

Precisely for this reason, the objective of this report is to inform a broad audience about 44 permafrost, and communicate to decision-makers and the general public the impacts and implications 45 of changing permafrost in a warming climate. It summarizes the best scientific information available 46 from published literature, emphasizing permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere. The report includes 47 the impacts of changing climate on ecosystems and human infrastructure in the Arctic, as well as the 48 impacts of thawing permafrost on global climate. It has been fully populated with graphics, 49 illustrations, and photos to make the concepts and ideas easily understood and visualized by a non-50 scientific audience. 51

While much has been written about permafrost in the last couple of years, most such reports 52 are very technical in nature and target a limited, scientific audience rather than the broader group of 53 decision-makers and the general public. The 2011 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic 54 assessment report produced by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme focused on impacts 55 of climate change on the Arctic cryosphere, rather than the other way around, and of course did not 56 include all areas with permafrost, particularly in alpine regions. The Intergovernmental Panel on 57 Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report dealt with the subject of permafrost in a 58 highly scientific fashion under Working Group I in Chapter 4. In 2007, UNEP produced a volume 59 entitled Global Outlook on Snow and Ice, where one chapter included an overview of permafrost. 60 Again in 2008, in the UNEP Yearbook of our Changing Environment, UNEP devoted a chapter to 61 methane emissions, but did not focus on permafrost. This current report fills a gap by providing a 62 concise, highly-readable and fully up-to-date description of permafrost and future social, 63 economic, and environmental impacts of changing permafrost in a warming climate. 64

I would like to thank the team of scientific experts who have prepared this report. We hope 65 their dedication and hard work on this project will be rewarded by wide interest among those who can 66 affect decision-making processes relevant to the state and trends of global permafrost. 67

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 68

Achim Steiner, Executive Director 69


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Table of Contents 70 Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost ........................................................................................... 1 71

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 2 72

Foreword ................................................................................................................................................. 3 73

1. Introduction to Permafrost ............................................................................................................. 5 74

1.1. What is Permafrost? ............................................................................................................... 5 75

1.2. What Controls Permafrost? .................................................................................................... 8 76

1.3. Monitoring Permafrost ........................................................................................................... 9 77

1.4. Current State of Permafrost .................................................................................................. 11 78

2. Impact of Climate Change on Permafrost ..................................................................................... 12 79

2.1. Future Climate....................................................................................................................... 12 80

2.2. Permafrost in the Future....................................................................................................... 13 81

2.3. Ecosystem Impacts ................................................................................................................ 14 82

2.4. Natural Hazards ..................................................................................................................... 15 83

2.5. Societal and Economic Impacts ............................................................................................. 17 84

3. Impacts of Thawing Permafrost on Climate Change .................................................................... 19 85

3.1. Frozen Carbon Stocks ............................................................................................................ 19 86

3.2. The Permafrost Carbon Feedback ......................................................................................... 19 87

4. Policy Recommendations .............................................................................................................. 22 88

5. Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................... 23 89

6. References .................................................................................................................................... 24 90

7. Glossary ......................................................................................................................................... 24 91

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113 Figure 2: In this latitude cross section along the Mackenzie River basin in Canada, the permafrost 114 changes from deep, cold, continuous permafrost along the Arctic coastline to shallow, warm sporadic 115 permafrost in Alberta. 116

Permafrost is deep and continuous along the Arctic coastline where temperatures are coldest, 117 transitioning to discontinuous and finally sporadic permafrost further south where temperatures are 118 warmer (Figure 2). The coldest and deepest permafrost occurs where air temperatures are lowest: 119 near the Arctic coast in Siberia and the Canadian Archipelago (Smith et al. 2010). Cold permafrost 120 occurs in continuous zones with temperatures between -15 and -1 °C. Warm permafrost occurs in 121 discontinuous zones with temperatures between -3 and 0 °C (Christiansen et al. 2010; Romanovsky et 122 al. 2010a, b; Smith et al. 2010). 123

Air temperature decreases with altitude, resulting in permafrost formation in mountainous 124 regions at warmer latitudes, such as the Rocky Mountains in North America, the European Alps, and 125 the Tibetan Plateau in Asia. The distribution of permafrost in mountain is typically discontinuous or 126 sporadic, depending on slope, orientation to the Sun, vegetation, and snow characteristics. Mountain 127 permafrost is considered warm permafrost, with temperatures ranging from 0 to -5.2 °C (Sharhuu et 128 al. 2008; Harris et al. 2009; Brown et al. 2010; Zhao et al. 2010). 129

The active layer is the surface layer of soil that thaws each summer and refreezes each winter 130 (Figure 3). The active layer starts thawing in spring after the snow melts and continues to thaw 131 throughout the summer, reaching a maximum depth in late summer. The active layer begins to 132 refreeze in fall with the onset of winter and is completely frozen by the end of winter. Active layer 133 thickness is the annual maximum thaw depth, ranging from 30 cm along the Arctic coast, to 2 meters 134 or more in Southern Siberia, and several meters in the European Alps. 135

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annual average air temperature influence permafrost temperature. The zero amplitude depth varies 154 from a few meters in warm permafrost to 20 meters in cold permafrost (Smith et al. 2010; 155 Romanovsky et al. 2010a). Temperatures at the zero amplitude depth reflect 20th century climate 156 conditions, but temperatures at 400 to 800 meters depth reflect the climatic conditions at the Holocene 157 optimum 8,000 years ago, just after the end of the last ice age (Osterkamp and Romanovsky 1999; 158 Haeberli 2000). 159

Permafrost includes the contents of the soil before it was frozen, so the permafrost body can 160 include bedrock, gravel, rocks, organic material, and sometimes animal remains. Ice acts like concrete 161 to bind soil and rock together such that permafrost is hard, durable, and resistant to erosion, with a 162 physical texture similar to cinder block. Thermal expansion and contraction coupled with the flow of 163 water across the landscape can form ice layers, lenses, blocks, and wedges in the permafrost body. 164 Plant roots cannot penetrate permafrost, so live vegetation is restricted to the active layer. Cold 165 temperatures and annual refreezing slow the decay of dead plant material, resulting in rich, organic 166 soil in the active layer. 167

1.2. What Controls Permafrost? 168

Air temperature is the dominant control on global permafrost distribution, followed by local 169 snow characteristics. Any location with annual average air temperatures below freezing can form 170 permafrost (Humlum 1998b; Stocker-Mittaz et al. 2002). Snow is mostly air and a very effective 171 insulator, often resulting in permafrost body temperatures 5 to 10 °C warmer than winter air 172 temperatures (Harris 2001; Luetschg et al. 2004). Snow thickness, timing, and duration influence 173 permafrost formation. A cold location with deep snow may not form permafrost while a warmer 174 location with no snow would form permafrost. Rock walls in alpine areas often form permafrost 175 because they completely lack the insulating effects of snow, vegetation, debris, or talus (Gruber and 176 Haeberli 2007). Sunlight, surface vegetation, and soil organic matter can also influence permafrost 177 formation and active layer thickness. In mountains, for example, permafrost will form in shaded 178 crevasses, but not on sunlit ridges (Funk and Hoelzle 1992). The insulating effects of surface 179 vegetation and organic matter often result in huge variability in active layer thickness within the space 180 of a few meters (Humlum 1998a). 181

Changes in air temperature and snow cover can degrade permafrost. Permafrost degradation 182 is any increase in active layer thickness or decrease in the areal extent of permafrost over time. As the 183 active layer deepens, a layer of unfrozen soil called a talik can form above the permafrost table but 184 below the maximum freeze depth in winter. Permafrost degradation is accompanied by erosion and 185 other physical changes to the landscape. Permafrost is highly resistant to erosion, but the bonding 186 strength of ice disappears when permafrost thaws, making it vulnerable to erosion. A Thermokarst is 187 a depression caused by the collapse and erosion of thawed permafrost (Figure 5 and 6). 188

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14

permafrost (Zhang et al. 2008). As taliks expand, the permafrost becomes patchy and eventually 309 disappears, moving the southern margins of both discontinuous and discontinuous permafrost 310 northward and to higher elevations in mountain regions. The loss of permafrost will progress 311 northward over time, contracting around regions with the coldest permafrost temperatures that are 312 most resistant to thaw in Northern Siberia and the islands of Northeast Canada. 313

Table 1: Predicted loss of permafrost and increases in active layer thickness by 2100 314

315 a calculated from numbers or tables in text 316 b calculated from estimated trends 317 c calculated based on permafrost area loss from Lawrence and Slater [2005] 318

2.3. Ecosystem Impacts 319

As permafrost degrades, species composition will change, affecting animal habitat, migration, 320 and disturbance. The sequential transition from one mix of species to another is called succession. 321 The southern permafrost regions are covered with forest called the boreal zone while further north is 322 tundra consisting of sedge grasses and lichen. Warming temperatures have already increased the 323 length of the growing season, favoring the expansion of shrubs and short woody vegetation in tundra 324 regions (Figure 12). In the boreal zone, this favors broadleaf tree species over evergreens such that 325 the current population of black spruce and larch may recede in favor of birch, aspen, white spruce, 326 and lodgepole pine. The overall effect is a northward migration of the tree line (ACIA 2004). 327

Shifts in species composition will affect animal populations that depend on specific 328 vegetation types, such as wetlands. The permafrost table is impermeable to water, resulting in a large 329 number of wetlands that migratory birds from around the world use as summer breeding grounds. 330 These lakes will drain as permafrost thaws (Marsh and Neumann 2001; Prowse et al. 2006) 331 potentially resulting in reduced habitat for waterfowl (Figure 13). Sediment displaced from thawing 332 permafrost by thermokarst erosion will disrupt aquatic habitat such as streams and rivers, adversely 333 affecting the fish that inhabit them. 334

As the active layer deepens and surface lakes drain, the soil will become drier, increasing the 335 intensity and frequency of naturally occurring fire and insect disturbances. For example, cold winters 336 have traditionally kept pine bark beetles in check, but recent warming trends have led to an explosion 337 in the beetle population with massive infestations in western Canada (Aukema et al. 2006). Fire in 338 boreal forests has increased in intensity and frequency recently (Turetsky 2011), and could become 339

StudyDecrease in Permafrost

Area (%)

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Layer (cm)Marchenko et al . [2008] 7a 162b

Zhang et al . [2008a] 16-20a 30-70 Schneider von Deimling et al . [2011] 16-46 -Schaefer et al . [2011] 20-39 56-92Zhang et al . [2008b] 21-24 30-80Eusk irchen et al . [2006] 27a -Koven et al. [2011] 30 30-60a

Saito et al . [2007] 40-57 50-300Lawrence and Slater [2005] 60-90 50-300Schuur et al . [2009]c 60-90 50-300Eliseev et al . [2009] 65-80a 100-200Lawrence and Slater [2010] 73-88 -Lawrence et al . [2008] 80-85 50-300

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2.5. Societal and Economic Impacts 381

Infrastructure damage in the Arctic and mountainous regions could be significant (Figures 16 382 and 17). Buildings, roads, pipelines, railways, power lines, and similar infrastructure were all built 383 assuming that the solid foundation of permafrost would not change. In fact, building practices in the 384 Arctic are designed to preserve and prevent thawing of permafrost. However, thawing permafrost is 385 structurally weak, creating thermokarst and foundational settling that can damage or even destroy 386 infrastructure. Increased rock falls and erosion in mountain regions could have severe impacts on 387 nearby settlements, roads, and railways. Warming in Arctic and mountain permafrost has already 388 caused damage to buildings, transportation networks, pipelines, and other miscellaneous structures 389 (Instanes and Anisimov 2008). Infrastructure failure can have dramatic environmental impacts, as 390 seen in the 1994 breakdown of the pipeline to the Vozei oilfield in Siberia, which resulted in a spill of 391 160,000 tons of oil, the world’s largest terrestrial oil spill. 392

Repair, replacement, or adaptation of damaged infrastructure will require substantial financial 393 resources. The impacts of climate change could add $3.6–$6.1 billion to future costs for public 394 infrastructure in Alaska from now to 2030, an increase of 10% to 20% above normal maintenance 395 costs (Larsen et al. 2008). Most settlements in the Arctic lie on the coast, where strong erosion rates 396 place structures and roads at risk and may force the relocation of settlements at considerable cost 397 (Figure 18) (Forbes 2011). These changes will impact local society and culture, as well as upsetting 398 the often fragile balance of small communities and disrupting the traditional interaction of residents 399 and indigenous communities with the permafrost environment (Forbes 2011). The Russian 400 Federation has by far the greatest number of people living in permafrost regions and will bear the 401 brunt of costs associated with infrastructure repair or replacement. 402

403 Figure 16: Uneven settling due to permafrost thaw destroyed this apartment building in Cherski, 404 Siberia, which occurred only days after the appearance of the first cracks (photo: Vladimir 405 Romanovsky). 406

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20

irreversible: once thawed and released into the atmosphere, there is no way to put the carbon back into 444 the permafrost. 445

Available predictions indicate huge carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (Table 2). Up 446 to half of the frozen carbon will thaw out, decay, and eventually end up in the atmosphere. Extensive 447 wetlands in the Arctic imply that nearly 3% of the permafrost carbon emissions will be methane, 448 which is 20 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2 (Schuur et al. 2011). Permafrost carbon 449 emissions could cancel out a significant portion of the global land uptake of atmospheric CO2 450 (Schaefer et al. 2011). The effect of so much CO2 and methane on global climate is not clear, since 451 none of the projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report include the permafrost carbon feedback. 452

Global strategies to reduce fossil fuel emissions should include carbon emissions from 453 thawing permafrost. Organic matter decays slowly in the Arctic and permafrost carbon emissions will 454 continue for decades and even centuries after the permafrost stops thawing (Figure 21). Half or more 455 of permafrost carbon emissions will occur after 2100, so long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration, 456 and thus the climate, are determined by both fossil fuel and permafrost carbon emissions. Strategies 457 to address climate change set a target atmospheric CO2 concentration corresponding to a desired 458 climate. A target atmospheric CO2 concentration of 700 ppm, for example, sets an upper limit on 459 total, global carbon emissions of ~1350 Gigatonnes (Schaefer et al. 2011). The projections of 460 permafrost emissions in Table 2 account for 15% to 50% of total emissions, leaving only 50-85% for 461 fossil fuels. Failure to account for permafrost carbon emissions will result in overshooting any target 462 atmospheric CO2 concentration, resulting in a warmer climate than desired. 463

Table 2: Predictions of total permafrost carbon emissions. 464

465 a calculated from emission rates in the paper 466

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22

4. Policy Recommendations 475

Institutionalize Permafrost Monitoring Networks 476

National governments should institutionalize and run the TSP and CALM networks to 477 monitor permafrost, analogous to weather monitoring stations. The TSP and CALM networks are 478 currently run by independent research teams with different objectives and instruments at each site. 479 The networks focus on research and are not adequate to monitor permafrost in a standard way suitable 480 for policy decisions. Funding is small and irregular, making it difficult to standardize measurements 481 and expand the networks. The TSP network expanded during the 2007-2008 International Polar Year 482 because of regional efforts funded by national funding agencies. Portions of the TSP have been 483 institutionalized in Switzerland and China, but this is not adequate to globally monitor permafrost. 484 The TSP and CALM networks are currently managed by the International Permafrost Association 485 through the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost. They should be made part of international 486 climate monitoring programs and coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization. 487

Allocate for Permafrost Carbon Emissions 488

Global treaties to reduce fossil fuel emissions should include a 15% annual allocation to 489 account for the carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. Treaties under negotiation emphasize 490 annual emission targets per country or region corresponding to a target atmospheric CO2 491 concentration in 2100. Agreeing to such treaties means that we as a global society agree to move 492 towards a “desired” climate corresponding to the target CO2 concentration. The target CO2 493 concentration places an upper limit on the total, irreversible CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. 494 Current projections indicate permafrost carbon fluxes approximately 15% of total flux. Failure to 495 account for carbon emissions from thawing permafrost will result in overshooting the target CO2 496 concentration, resulting in a warmer climate than desired. 497

Plan for Adaptation 498

Nations with substantial permafrost should plan for the risks, damage, and mitigation of 499 permafrost degradation. Individual nations should identify regions especially vulnerable permafrost 500 degradation. Within these regions, individual nations should identify at-risk structures and 501 infrastructure and recruit economists to estimate repair, replacement, and mitigation costs. Engineers 502 and scientists should develop or adapt current building codes to withstand potential permafrost 503 degradation. Such plans should be developed at the local level, but coordinated nationally and 504 internationally. Adaptation plans will help policy makers, national planners, and scientists quantify 505 costs and risks associated with permafrost degradation. 506

Commission Special Report on Permafrost 507

The IPCC should commision a special assessment report focusing on potential permafrost 508 degradation and the influence of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. None of the 509 global climate projections that included in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report include the effects of 510 the permafrost carbon feedback. The IPCC will release the Fifth Assessment Report in 2013, but to 511 make deadlines, participating model teams froze new model development in 2009, before the 512 potential effects of the permafrost carbon feedback were identified. Nearly all the models included in 513 the Fifth Assessment Report are capable of simulating permafrost, but the key information on 514 simulated soil temperature and active layer thickness are not saved. The Fifth Assessment Report will 515 guide global policy on climate change for the next decade, but without a special report on permafrost, 516 it will lack the permafrost carbon feedback and its effect on climate. 517


23

5. Acknowledgements 518

5.1. Editor: 519

Kevin Schaefer, University of Colorado, Boulder, United States 520

5.2. Authors: 521

Isabelle Gärtner-Roer, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland 522

Hugues Lantuit, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, International 523 Permafrost Association, Potsdam, Germany 524

Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, United States 525

Ron Witt, United Nations Environmental Programme, Geneva, Switzerland 526

5.3. Contributors: 527

Edward A. G. Schuur, University of Florida, Gainesville, United States 528

5.4. Reviewers: 529


24

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Sweden. Permafrost Periglacial Proc., 19, 279–292, doi:10.1002/ppp.626 534 Aukema, B.H., Carroll, A.L., Zhu, J., Raffa, K.F., Sickley, T.A., and Taylor, S.W. (2006). Landscape 535

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7. Glossary 714

Active layer thickness: the annual maximum depth of thaw of the active layer in summer. 715

Active layer: the surface soil layer in permafrost regions that thaws each summer and freezes 716 each winter. 717

Cold permafrost: regions where the temperature of the permafrost body is between -15 and -718 1 °C. 719

Continuous permafrost: regions where permafrost underlies 90-100% of the land area. 720

Cryoturbation: the mixing of soil due to the expansion and contraction of soil water during 721 annual freeze/thaw cycles. 722

Discontinuous permafrost: regions where permafrost underlies 50-90% of the land area. 723

Isolated permafrost: regions where permafrost underlies less than 10% of the land area. 724

Permafrost base: the bottom of the permafrost layer within the soil column. 725

Permafrost carbon feedback: amplification of surface warming due to the release into the 726 atmosphere of the carbon currently frozen in permafrost 727

Permafrost carbon: organic matter currently frozen in permafrost. 728

Permafrost degradation: any increase in active layer thickness, thinning of the permafrost 729 body, or decrease in the areal extent of permafrost over time. 730

Permafrost table: The bottom of the active layer and the top of the permafrost layer in the 731 soil column. 732

Permafrost: soil or rock remaining at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. 733

Rock glacier: tongue-shaped bodies of perennially frozen material with interstitial ice and ice 734 lenses that move downslope by creep as a consequence of the ice deformation. 735

Sporadic permafrost: regions where permafrost underlies 10-50% of the land area. 736

Talik: a layer of permanently thawed soil above the permafrost layer and below the active 737 layer. 738

Thermokarst: a local subsidence or soil collapse due to the melting of ice and subsequent 739 drainage of soil water from permafrost. 740

Warm permafrost: regions where the temperature of the permafrost body varies between -3 741 and 0 °C. 742

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