pnw climate change - law seminars international robinson-dorn... · 2012-06-16 · pnw climate...
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Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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PNW Climate Change:Implications for Washington Water Law
Prof. Michael Robinson-DornUniversity of Washington School of LawDirector, Kathy & Steve Berman Law Clinic
June 5, 2007Water Law Seminar
Summary:Summary:Implications for Water ManagementImplications for Water Management
• Increased demand among competinguses requires greater tradeoffs (M&I,habitat, irrigation, water quality navigation,recreation, hydropower)
• Increased risk of winter flooding inmany basins (changes in urban flooding lessclear)
• Water systems must be managed forlonger and more extreme drawdownperiods that in the past
• Bottom line: Increased competitionfor water and increased vulnerabilityto drought
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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A Top 1O?• More precipitation will fall as rain than snow. (esp. important in the
lower and mid-level elevations where more winter rain and fasterand earlier snowmelt)
• Peak river flows may increase in winter and early spring• Less water available when demand is highest• Water temperatures will increase (with potential impacts to
salmonids and other fish)• Potential impacts on groundwater with lower groundwater tables
(snowpack recharge)• Increased flooding and stormwater runoff flows (with increase
pollutant loads in the high flows);• Decreased flows in the summer (with potential to decrease capacity
to assimilate pollutants) 303(d) listings under the CWA for impairedstreams—esp. temp. and DO
• Sea level rise (with potential for increased saltwater intrusion).• Increased wildfires (including damage to high elevation streams and
other favorable conditions of flow); Increased growth of somespecies in forests together with increased potential for pests—e.g.pine beetle
• Increased capacity for hydroelectric in winter (but deceaseddemand) and decreased capacity for hydroelectric in the summer(but increased demand)
The Connection to Water Law: A Top 10?The Connection to Water Law: A Top 10?
Beneficial use Waste
Federal Reserved Rights—Including
Indian Reserved Rights
InstreamFlows
New Sources
BOR
International River
Columbia River Treaty
??
Then Add to the MixThen Add to the Mix
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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• Most glaciers in the PNW are receding (melting) which has the potential toimpact base flows in some systems. E.g., Olympic and North Cascades.
Glacier Melt and DisequilibriumGlacier Melt and Disequilibrium
• Warmer temperatures willresult in more precipitationfalling as rain rather thansnow
• Snow pack will diminish,and stream flow timing willbe altered
• Peak river flows will likelyincrease
• Water temperatures willcontinue to rise
Impacts Impacts
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
4
Earlypeakflows
Floods
??
Warm, lowstreamflow
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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Water for Fish
• Flow augmentation from cool/cold water storage reservoirs. If this strategyrequires addition storage capacity, careful consideration of the benefits andnegative impacts of increasing the number of dams in the basin will berequired.
• Use of removable surface weirs to reduce the time juvenile salmonidsspend in the warm water of the dam forebays
• Reduce water temperatures in the ladders with water drawn from lower,cooler strata in the water column of the dam forebays
• Open backwater, slough, and other off-channel habitats along mainstemreservoirs and the estuary to encourage increased flow through these helpreduce water temperature and provide cool-water refugia
Water for FishWater for Fish
Reserved Rights
Indian Reserved Water Rights
Instream Flows?
Other Federal Reserved Rights?
Reserved RightsReserved Rights
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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Pressures and Opportunities
Beneficial Use
Economic EfficiencyAction Forcing
WasteScientific and TechnologicalAdvances
Reuse, Recycle, Reclaim
Pressures and Opportunities
• ESA listings• 303(d) designations• Population and Urbanization increases• Sea level
• Water Banks (loans transfers)• Demand Control• Efficiency and Conservation• Alternate Supplies
• Value?
Pressures, Opportunities and ExpectationsPressures, Opportunities and Expectations
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
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20th Century Climate “2040s” (+3°F) “2060s” (+4.5°F)
April 1 SWE (mm)
-3.6% -11.5%
-21.4% -34.8%
Transboundary ImplicationsTransboundary Implications
Changes in Simulated April 1 Snowpack for the Canadian and US portions of theColumbia River Basin
The Columbia River TreatyThe Columbia River TreatyThe Columbia River Treaty
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
8
ConservationConservationConservation
??
Joint management for multiple uses
Flexibility
New structures
Speaker 23: Michael J. Robinson-Dorn of University of Washington School of Law
Law Seminars International | Washington Water Law | 6/4/07 in Seattle, WA
9
PNW Climate Change:Implications for Washington Water Law
Prof. Michael Robinson-DornUniversity of Washington School of LawDirector, Kathy & Steve Berman Law Clinic
June 5, 2007Water Law Seminar
Key Trends in 20Key Trends in 20thth Century Climate Century Climate
Average annualtemperature increased+1.5°F in the PNWduring the 20th century
April 1 snowpack hasdecreased throughoutthe PNW with losses of30-60% at manyindividual stations(1950-2000)
Similar declines areseen throughout thewestern United States
3.6 °F
2.7 °F
1.8 °F0.9 °F
Cooler Warmer
Mote 2003(a), updated
Temperature Trends (°F per century), since 1920
Decrease Increase
Decrease Increase