AP Statistics Name:_____________________Mr. Murphy Date:Probability Sample Quiz Period:

Multiple Choice (1 pt. each)1. The probability of a tourist visiting an area cave is 0.70 and of a tourist visiting a nearby park is 0.60. The probability of visiting both places on the same day is 0.40. The probability that a tourist visits at least one of these two places is

(a) 0.08(b) 0.28(c) 0.42(d) 0.90(e) 0.95

2. Suppose that A and B are events in a sample space with and . Then

(a) 0.3(b) 0.4(c) 0.625(d) 0.8(e) 1

3. Which of the following is a correct statement?

(a) An event that is certain not to happen has a probability of 1.0.(b) Probabilities are numbers whose values can be any number from -1 to 1.(c) The sum of the probabilities assigned to all outcomes in a sample space must

be exactly 1.0.(d) Probabilities are always whole numbers.(e) If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability that both events

occur is the product of their individual probabilities.

P A( ) = 0.8P B A( ) = 0.5 P A and B( ) =

_____________

PfacUP Pfac tP P PHP0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 Ac P

0.3 040.2

PHA t.IT 0.5 PfgBff plants 0.50.8 0.4

0(c)

4. When two fair dice are rolled what is the probability of getting a sum of 7 given the the first die rolled is an odd number?

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

5. Billie decides to participate in both of two games of chance involving dice. In the first game he gets a chance to throw the two dice and wins if his dice show a sum of 7 between 15% and 20% of the time. In the second game, Billie gets to throw two dice and wins if his dice show a sum of 6 or 8 between 30% and 35% of the time. For each game wold he rather toss 50 or 500 pairs of dice?

(a) 50 times for each game(b) 500 times for each game(c) 50 times for the first game, and 500 for the second(d) 500 times for the first game, and 50 for the second(e) The outcomes of the games do not depend on the number of flips

Free Response (4 pts.)

11219161412

PslumPP 71mm odd11 PKpm7μ0dd PdumbPP Plodddd

I1I1

o(d)(e)

1. Ed Wine is a student who has the usual student complaint: “Usually I do my homework and the teacher never checks it and when I don’t do my homework, the teacher usually checks it.” Here are the statistics:The teacher checks homework 32% of the time. When she doesn’t check homework, Ed has done his homework 83% of the time. When she does check homework, Ed has done it 47% of the time.

(a) Make a tree diagram that illustrates these statistics.

Find the following probabilities.(b) Find the probability that if Ed does his homework the teacher doesn’t check.

(c) Find the probability that if Ed doesn’t do his homework, the teacher does check.

(d) Is Ed justified in his complaint based on what you just found? Why?

Doesntcheck

0.32 0.68

Doff Doesnt Does Doesn't

0.47 0.53 0.83 0.170.1504 0 1696f ll i 0 5644b b 0.1156

PDoesn'tchecktt doesHw P DoesntCh DHwP doesHw

6874.83 0.5644A60.68 0.83110.3210.4711 0.5644 0.15042 0.79

P checksH'wDoesn'tww doHWoo PCchecksltwhdoesritd.lt

Pdoesn'tdott Hw

f fi Y a5a

Yes Both probabilities are greater than 50

2. On January 1 of every year, many people watch the Rose Parade on television. The week before the parade is very busy for float builders and decorators. Roses, carnation, and other flowers are purchased from around the world to decorate the floats. Based on past experience, one float decorator found that 10% of the bundles of roses delivered will not open in time for the parade, 20% of the bundles of roses delivered will have bugs on them and be unusable, 60% of the bundles of roses delivered will turn out to be beautiful, and the rest of the bundles of roses delivered will bloom too early and start to discolor before January 1. Conduct a simulation to estimate how many bundles of roses the float decorator will need to purchase in order to have 15 good bundles of roses for his float.

(a) Describe how you will conduct this simulation using either your calculator or the random number table below. Include rules for repeated numbers, a stopping rule, and what is to be measured at the end of a trial.

(b) Show four trials by writing out your calculator process or by clearly labeling the random number table below. Specify the outcome for each trial.

37452 04805 64894 74296 24805 24037 20636 10402 00822

08422 68953 19645 09303 23209 02560 15953 34764 35080

99019 02529 09376 70715 38311 31165 88676 74397 04436

12807 99970 80157 36147 64032 36653 98951 16877 12171

(c) What is the average number of bundles needed for the 4 trials?

O won'topen in time Rankint 0,9 101 18 randomintegersbetween 0 wt 9

1,2 will havebugseecontinuegeneratingsetsof s untilyoureachuu 15goodbundlesdd

3 8 are beautiful

9 bloomtooearly

ora73445256048 salon05 6489Trial1 112 022 000 I0 189999 I29

is159Trial 2 346895653 7899645 to930 a3

Trial3 23459376 7067 7895 38lo3199 n3 way165 886

Trial4 27 397 48 567857 36 910111247 640is32my366

22 32432 27 2 28.25