pf china baylor

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PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE RESEARCH SERIES

VOL. 4 FEBRUARY 2013 NO. 6

RESOLVED: ON BALANCE, THE RISE OF CHINA IS BENEFICIAL TO THE INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES.

Over the past two decades, the Chinese economy has grown by about 10% per year – no nation in the history of theworld has ever grown at such a rate. In August of 2010, China passed Japan to become the world’s second largesteconomy behind the Untied States. If the current rate of growth continues, China will move past the United States into firstplace within a decade.

The United States has contributed in numerous ways to the rise of China. In 1972, President Richard Nixon ended 25years of isolation by visiting China. Up until that time, the United States had diplomatically ignored the communist takeoverof China. In 1949, the communist forces of Mao Tse-Tung pushed the nationalist Chinese government of Chiang Kai-shekonto the island of Taiwan. Yet the United States continued to claim that the legitimate government of mainland China wasChiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China. In fact, China’s permanent seat on the Security Council of the United Nations wasoccupied by the nationalist Chinese. In 1971, the United Nations voted to seat the People’s Republic of China as thelegitimate government of China; Taiwan was expelled from the UN. In 1979, the United States established formaldiplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. From that point, U.S.-China ties have expanded dramatically.

In 2001, the United States sponsored Chinese membership in the World Trade Organization. Now, more than 450 ofthe U.S. Fortune 500 companies have operations in China, supporting over 50,000 investment projects worth hundreds ofbillions of dollars (The Frontier Post, Apr. 17, 2011, Nexis). David Mason, professor of political science at Butler University,describes China’s remarkable transformation in his 2009 book, The End of the American Century:

The rapid emergence of China as a global economic power is both remarkable and surprising.For those of us who grew up at dinner tables where we had to eat the last disgusting piece ofasparagus because there were "starving people in China," the new Chinese wealth and affluenceis quite astounding. The essence of the change lies in two major accomplishments: the ending ofwidespread hunger and famine -- a frequent affliction in China's long history -- by the communistregime and the bringing of at least 250 million people out of poverty and into the middle classsince the adoption of the economic reforms. China scholar David Lamp-ton believes that theChinese middle class is "growing more rapidly than any middle class ever has, anywhere." Butperhaps China's economic boom should not be so surprising. For most of its long history, Chinahad the world's largest economy, and it remained so up until the middle of the nineteenth century.(p. 190)

The key question raised by the February Public Forum topic is whether the rise of China is beneficial or harmful fromthe standpoint of “U.S. interests.” This same question has been the subject of extensive recent discussions amongeconomists and political scientists. C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Affairs, argues thatChina is using its newly found economic power to undermine carefully constructed international agreements. Bergsten isthe author of the 2008 book, China’s Rise: Challenges and Opportunities:

China's behavior poses a fundamental challenge to the operation of the global monetaryregime and to the effectiveness of its institutional guardian, the International Monetary Fund.China has in fact questioned the basic concept of international cooperation in dealing with theseproblems, claiming that the exchange rate is "an issue of national sovereignty" when it is of coursea quintessential international question in which foreign counterparties have an equivalent interest.Far from accepting IMF advice, it has strenuously objected even to the principle of Fundinvolvement in the issue. Underlying this debate is the implicit threat that China might promotecreation of an Asian Monetary Fund--based on the Chiang Mai Initiative, which provides thefulcrum for Asian monetary cooperation, in addition to the regional trade plans described earlier--and further erode the global role of the IMF. (pp. 17-19)

Martin Jacques, a professor at the London School of Economics, is the author of the 2009 book, When China Rulesthe World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. Jacques argues that China is determinedto undermine U.S. economic influence in the world by replacing the dollar as the standard of international exchange:

As a harbinger of the decline, and ultimate demise, of the present U S-dominated system,there is the prospect of the emergence over the next decade of the renminbi as a reservecurrency, which would mean it could be used for trade and be held by countries as part of theirreserves. Having acquired full convertibility against other currencies, it could rapidly assume avery important role outside China, acting as the de facto reserve currency in East Asia,

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marginalizing the yen, and challenging the position of the euro and ultimately the dollar as globalreserve currencies. It is clear from the American financial meltdown in 2008 that the days whenthe US economy could sustain the global reserve currency are now numbered. (p. 360)

The rise of China’s military is also a concern. Eamonn Fingleton, editor of the Financial Times, makes the followingobservation in his 2008 book, In the Jaws of the Dragon: America’s Fate in the Coming Era of Chinese Hegemony: “It isnot an accident that the recent rate of growth in China's military spending -- at an average of more than 10 percent a yearsince the mid-1990s -- has been one of the world's fastest. While a detailed discussion of likely future U. S. - China militaryrivalry is beyond the scope of this book, a few points can be made. First, analysts at the U.S. Naval War College calculatethat China will draw broadly level with the United States as a military power in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020” (p. 302).

Yet many experts regard the rise of China as a blessing, rather than a curse. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in the1990s, America has been the world’s sole superpower. This has fed a belief in the importance of American hegemony –the notion that the United States must be responsible for the maintenance of peace everywhere in the world. Critics ofAmerican hegemony argue that this effort to dominate events throughout the globe has over-stretched the capability of theU.S. military and depleted the treasury. Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, discussedthis problem in his 2009 book, The Power Problem: How American Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous,and Less Free:

In polls, Americans consistently reject hegemony in favor of burden sharing. In a surveyconducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in July 2006, 75 percent of respondentsbelieved that the United States "should do its share to solve world problems together with othercountries" and only 10 percent wanted the United States to "remain the preeminent world leader insolving international problems." By a similar margin, respondents agreed with the proposition that"The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be." Bruce Stokes andAndrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center point out in their book America against the World thatsince the end of the Cold War, "no more than 13 percent of Americans have said the UnitedStates should be the single most important leader in the world." (pp. 133-134)

According to this view, the United States should welcome the assistance of China in helping to manage securityproblems around the world. Evelyn Goh, professor of international relations at Oxford University, believes that the rise ofChina has turned that nation into a “status quo” power:

In terms of policy, Chinese leaders have evinced their desire to make room for and to avoidopen contestation of (if not entirely conform to) United States dominance in recent years. Therehas been, for instance, a marked moderation in rhetoric against "American hegemony" and UnitedStates alliances and bases in East Asia." Chinese actions also do not suggest that it is seeking astrategy of counter-dominance against the US. On the Korean peninsula, Beijing has refrainedfrom exploiting its close relationship with Pyongyang to intensify the antagonism against theUnited States and South Korea, but has rather shifted toward being a mediating partner of theUnited States in the Six Party Talks. (The Rise of China and International Security, 2009, p. 62)

A similar view is expressed by Nina Hachigian, vice president of the Center for American Progress, in her 2008 book,The Next American Century: “In Asia as well, China is now seen as a ‘status quo’ power. That is remarkable given anearlier era in the 1950s and 1960s when China sought to destabilize regional governments by supporting armedinsurgencies, had border conflicts with virtually every neighbor, and spread Maoism beyond its borders. China scholarDavid Shambaugh observes that China is now ‘the exporter of goodwill and consumer durables instead of weapons andrevolution’” (pp. 156-157).

The case can also be made that the rise of China’s economy has made the U.S. economy stronger. The neareconomic collapse at the end of 2008 provides a recent example of the importance of having China as a strong financialpartner. The United States is a huge export market for the Chinese, giving them an important stake in sustaining the healthof the American economy. Zachary Karabell, a Harvard University Ph.D., discussed the importance of thisinterdependence in his 2009 book, Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World’sProsperity Depends on It:

The events of the past two years have only deepened the interdependence between Chinaand the United States. The preponderance of the largest U.S.-listed companies are nowimmersed in the domestic Chinese market. While the U.S. government bailed out Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac in no small measure to satisfy Chinese interests, China continued buying U.S.Treasuries during the heart of the crisis not because the yields were good (they weren't) orbecause there was any reason to believe that U.S. economic activity would accelerate anytimesoon (there wasn't) but simply because China could not afford for the U.S. to fail. (p. 291)

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ANALYSIS OF THE TOPIC

The February resolution asks whether the rise of China “is beneficial to the interests of the United States.” Notice thatthis resolution focuses on “the interests of the United States.” This gives a direction to the topic that is different from muchof the political commentary concerning U.S. hegemony. Many of the critics of U.S. hegemony discuss the unfairness ofU.S. exceptionalism from the standpoint of other nations. They express a belief that the world needs a counter-weight toU.S. influence. Yet all such views are somewhat irrelevant on this resolution. It may well be true that China has every rightto advance itself economically and militarily. It may be true that other nations welcome the rise of China as a balancingforce against U.S. influence. Yet the resolution asks a different question: Does the rise of China benefit the interests of theUnited States?

The best place to begin in analyzing this resolution is to ask, “what are the interests of the United States?” Acomprehensive answer to this question is available in the 2000 report of the Commission on America’s National Interests(http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/2058/americas_national_interests.html). This commission, sponsored bythe RAND Corporation and Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, included thirtyprominent foreign policy experts such as Condoleezza Rice and Sam Nunn. These experts considered dozens of possible“national interests” and concluded that they must be placed into a value hierarchy: “The Commission has identified ahierarchy of US national interests: ‘vital interests,’ ‘extremely important interests,’ ‘important interests,’ and ‘less importantor secondary interests.’ This Report states our own best judgment about which specific American national interests arevital, which are extremely important, and which are just important” (p. 2). Consider the example of human rights conditionsin China. The commission agreed that the U.S. has an interest in promoting improved human rights conditions in China.Yet this interest should not be viewed as vital when compared to other U.S. interests:

In considering whether an interest is “vital,” the question is whether the preservation of thisinterest, value, or condition is strictly necessary for the United States to safeguard and enhanceAmerican’s survival and well-being in a free and secure nation. Most proposed “vital interests,”from Bosnia and Kosovo to Haiti, do not meet this strict test, and consequently appear in the othercolumns of our chart. For example, many today assert that human rights in China are a “vital” USnational interest. But massive violations of human rights as a matter of government policyoccurred in every decade of the twentieth century in many countries around the world. While suchviolations are harmful to America’s values and in conflict with American efforts to promote normsof human rights internationally, these violations—even official, massive, systematic ones—do notthreaten the survival or the freedom of America. (p. 20)

The commission agreed on only a few U.S. interests as “vital:” “The Commission identifies only five vital US nationalinterests today. These are (1) to prevent, deter, and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons attackson the United States or its military forces abroad; (2) to ensure US allies’ survival and their active cooperation with the USin shaping an international system in which we can thrive; (3) to prevent the emergence of hostile major powers or failedstates on US borders; (4) to ensure the viability and stability of major global systems (trade, financial markets, supplies ofenergy, and the environment); and (5) to establish productive relations, consistent with American national interests, withnations that could become strategic adversaries, China and Russia” (p. 3).

Of course, some world events have changed U.S. “interest” priorities since the commission issued its report in 2000.Most prominent among these events were the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Harvard law professor, AlanDershowitz, concluded that the terrorist attacks completely changed U.S. priorities: “The greatest danger facing the worldtoday comes from religiously inspired terrorist groups—often state sponsored—that are seeking to develop weapons ofmass destruction for use against civilian targets” (Why Terrorism Works, 2002, p. 2).

Your choice of a PRO or CON case will depend upon your definition of “the interests of the United States.” Is the keyU.S. interest the maintenance of world order, preventing nuclear proliferation, economic prosperity, reducing world poverty,protection of world trade, or preventing cyberwarfare? As the cases in this volume demonstrate, all of these “interests” maybe important. Your success will depend on showing that the “interest” that you have chosen is more important than the oneselected by your opponent.

PRO STRATEGIES

The first PRO strategy focuses on the U.S. interest in maintaining world order. This case argues that the United Statescan no longer afford to be the world’s sole superpower. In reality, we are borrowing huge amounts of money from China sothat we can maintain a farflung string of military bases. China’s growing economic strength has given it a major stake inpreserving world peace. Accordingly, the United States should welcome China’s assistance in the maintenance of worldpeace and stability, rather than pursuing a strategy of hegemony that it can no longer afford.

The second PRO strategy argues that the U.S. has a national interest in preventing the proliferation of nuclearweapons. The prime candidates for proliferation – and certainly the most dangerous ones – are North Korea and Iran. Inboth cases, the U.S. lacks the influence necessary to dissuade them from pursuing their nuclear programs. In both cases,China is the key to success in preventing dangerous nuclear proliferation. Fortunately, the rise of China has given theChinese new reasons to support the nonproliferation regime. The U.S. should welcome this development as beneficial to

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U.S. interests.

The third PRO strategy selects economic prosperity as the key U.S. interest in dealing with China. China is vital to U.S.economic stability for several reasons: It is a major trading partner, it finances a large portion of the U.S. deficit, and itssupportive action during the economic crisis of 2008 prevented a wider downturn. In addition, the U.S. has long professedan interest in the reduction of world poverty. The rise of China has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty –not only in China, but in Africa and other parts of the world.

CON STRATEGIES

The first CON strategy argues that the rise of China undermines the U.S. leadership position in the world. China’sincreased economic strength has enabled a dramatic buildup in the Chinese military, both in conventional and nuclearforces. This military buildup directly challenges the national security of the United States. In addition, China consistentlyundermines efforts to limit nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea. In both cases, world sanctions against potentialproliferators are undermined by China.

The second CON strategy focuses on the U.S. interest in maintaining the freedom of world trade. The U.S. hasofficially declared that it has a vital interest in maintaining the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. More thanone-fourth of all world trade moves through the waters of the South China Sea. Given its new economic clout, China haschosen to claim as its own the South China Sea. This claim flies in the face of all relevant provisions of international law,including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Because of treaty obligations to U.S. allies, including Japan, Taiwan,Australia, and the Philippines, this new Chinese assertively might well lead to war.

A third CON strategy notes that the rise of China has undermined U.S. interest because of the cyberwarfare threat.China actively engages in cyberwarfare designed to steal U.S. industrial and military information. In addition, China hasdemonstrated an intent to establish its own military superiority in the event of war by disabling U.S. military satellites. Chinaconducted a test of its anti-satellite weapons on January 11, 2007 and again on January 11, 2010.

A fourth CON strategy argues that China’s rise harms U.S. economic interests in a variety of ways: jobs are lost asU.S. manufacturers shift their operations to China, a massive trade deficit results from Chinese manipulation of itscurrency, and China seeks to undermine the strength of the dollar by replacing it with the Yuan as the world reservecurrency.

A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE PROPER USE OF BAYLOR BRIEFS IN PUBLIC FORUM DEBATE

The PRO and CON cases in public forum debate must be presented in only a few minutes. Since the emphasis inpublic forum debate is on persuasive delivery for the lay person, you would never want to try to speak more rapidly inorder to pack more arguments or quotations into the few minutes available in your speeches. Most successful publicforum teams won’t use more than six or seven short quotations in the whole debate. Most of the briefs offered in ourPublic Forum Debate Research Series are much longer – and present much more evidence – than could ever bepresented in a single public forum debate. You should consider each brief as a resource and cafeteria of possibilities.Rarely in public forum debate would you ever read more than one or two short pieces of evidence under each heading.Why does Baylor Briefs, then, sometimes provide several long pieces of evidence? We want to give you choices andalso to make backup evidence available to you. You should make the arguments your own by choosing only thearguments and evidence that makes the most sense to you.

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PEOPLE AND TERMS RELEVANT TO THE FEBRUARY PUBLIC FORUM TOPIC

PLA: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the name of the Chinese military force. The PLA is the world’s largestarmy, numbering well over two million strong. The Chinese military developed nuclear capability in 1964 and is nowthought to have a stockpile of about 100 nuclear warheads with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable ofreaching the United States. The Chinese navy has the world’s largest submarine fleet, though they do not yetcompare in sophistication to U.S. nuclear submarines. China has recently acquired an its first aircraft carrier and isin the process of equipping it for service and training PLA personnel to operate jet aircraft from the carrier. WhileChinese military spending continues to increase at a steady 10%-per-year increase, it remains roughly one-sixththe level of U.S. military spending.

Renminbi (RNB): (Pronounced: “Ren-Min-Bi”) is the name of the Chinese currency; used interchangeably with Yuan.Technically, the Renminbi is denominated in Yuan. The February Public Forum topic will involve a discussion of theRNB because many U.S. politicians believe that China obtains an unfair advantage in international trade bymanipulating the value of its currency, rather than allowing its value to be determined openly in world currencymarkets.

Senkakus Islands: These islands, located in the East China Sea, are a source of a major current conflict betweenChina and Japan. The Japanese government recently bought the islands from a private owner, an act that Chinaviewed as an affront to its own sovereignty claim over the islands. Senkakus is actually the name given to theislands by Japan; China calls them the Diaoyu islands. Taiwan, which also claims the island group, calls them theTiaoyutai Islands.

South China Sea: Considerable controversy rages over the Chinese claim to ownership of most of the South ChinaSea. This claim puts it in direct conflict with all of its Southeast Asian neighbors, each of which claim parts of theSouth China Sea. This controversy is especially significant since about 25% of all world shipping trade travelsthrough this region.

Spratly Islands: These islands in the South China Sea are claimed by six different countries: China, Vietnam, Taiwan,Brunei. Malaysia and the Philippines. A 2011 clash between the Philippines and Chinese navies near the islandsthreatened to result in armed conflict.

World Reserve Currency: At present, the U.S. dollar is the dominant world reserve currency. This means that mostinternational trade, even if it does not involve the United States, is conducted in dollar exchanges. The dominanceof the dollar confers a significant advantage to the United States in managing world trade.

World Trade Organization (WTO): This is the international organization regulating world trade; China became amember of the WTO in 2001, having been sponsored for membership by the United States.

Xi Jinping: (Pronounced: Shee Jin-ping) is currently the head of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese VicePresident. It is anticipated that Xi Jinping will be selected to replace the current president, Hu Jintao, when theCommunist Party leaders meet in early 2013.

Yuan: (Pronounced: “Wren,” not “You-An”) is the name of the Chinese currency; used interchangeably with Renminbi.

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KEY WEB SITES RELEVANT TO THE FEBRUARY PUBLIC FORUM TOPIC

Commission on America’s National Interests. July 2000. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/2058/americas_national_interests.html. This commission report calls for the establishmentof a hierarchy of interests: “The Commission has identified a hierarchy of US national interests: ‘vital interests,’‘extremely important interests,’ ‘important interests,’ and ‘less important or secondary interests.’ This Report statesour own best judgment about which specific American national interests are vital, which are extremely important,and which are just important.” At the top of this hierarchy are “vital” interests: “The Commission identifies only fivevital US national interests today. These are (1) to prevent, deter, and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, andchemical weapons attacks on the United States or its military forces abroad; (2) to ensure US allies’ survival andtheir active cooperation with the US in shaping an international system in which we can thrive; (3) to prevent theemergence of hostile major powers or failed states on US borders; (4) to ensure the viability and stability of majorglobal systems (trade, financial markets, supplies of energy, and the environment); and (5) to establish productiverelations, consistent with American national interests, with nations that could become strategic adversaries, Chinaand Russia.”

Foreign Affairs. January/February 2008. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63042/g-john-ikenberry/the-rise-of-china-and-the-future-of-the-west. This article, entitled “The Rise of China and the Futureof the West,” is written by G. John Ikenberry, professor of international affairs at Princeton University. ProfessorIkenberry highlights the military and economic threat represented by the rise of China: “China is well on its way tobecoming a formidable global power. The size of its economy has quadrupled since the launch of market reforms inthe late 1970s and, by some estimates, will double again over the next decade. It has become one of the world'smajor manufacturing centers and consumes roughly a third of the global supply of iron, steel, and coal. It hasaccumulated massive foreign reserves, worth more than $1 trillion at the end of 2006. China's military spending hasincreased at an inflation-adjusted rate of over 18 percent a year, and its diplomacy has extended its reach not justin Asia but also in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Indeed, whereas the Soviet Union rivaled the UnitedStates as a military competitor only, China is emerging as both a military and an economic rival -- heralding aprofound shift in the distribution of global power.”

Foreign Affairs. September/October 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?page=show. This article, entitled“How China Sees America” was written by Andrew Nathan and Andrew Scobell. Nathan is a professor of politicalscience at Columbia University and Scobell is an analyst at the RAND Corporation. They observe that every recentU.S. president has regarded the rise of China as serving America’s national interests: “Beginning with PresidentRichard Nixon, who visited China in 1972, a succession of American leaders have assured China of their goodwill.Every U.S. presidential administration says that China's prosperity and stability are in the interest of the UnitedStates. And in practice, the United States has done more than any other power to contribute to China'smodernization. It has drawn China into the global economy; given the Chinese access to markets, capital, andtechnology; trained Chinese experts in science, technology, and international law; prevented the full remilitarizationof Japan; maintained the peace on the Korean Peninsula; and helped avoid a war over Taiwan.”

Heritage Foundation. March 6, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://blog.heritage.org/2012/03/06/morning-bell-chinas-military-rising/. This article, by Heritage Foundation scholar, Mike Brownfield, is entitled “China’s MilitaryRising.” Brownfield argues that China’s military buildup threatens U.S. national interests: “China announced thisweek that its new defense budget would total approximately $106 billion — an 11.2 percent increase over itsprevious budget. That’s on top of last year’s 12.7 percent increase, making China’s defense spending larger thanthat of all other Asian nations combined. Heritage’s Dean Cheng writes that those figures are ‘a sobering statisticwhen one considers that this includes the world’s third-largest economy (Japan) and North and South Korea, whichremain locked in a Cold War-era standoff.’”

The National Interest. Dec. 3, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/china-the-awkward-embrace-7797?page=1. This article, entitled “China and the Awkward Embrace,” is written by DanBlumenthal and Phillip Swagel, both scholars at the American Enterprise Institute. The authors highlight numerousaspects of the rise of China that conflict with U.S. national interests: “Consider China’s military modernization, itstreatment of its citizens, its intentions with respect to Taiwan, and its troublesome relations with U.S. allies such asJapan and international pariahs such as Iran; together these behaviors demonstrate a deep dissatisfaction with theliberal international order. Chinese policies aimed at upsetting that order are detrimental to U.S. interests.”

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PRO CASE #1: THE END OF HEGEMONYThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in moving toward a cooperative

relationship with other world powers, rather than trying to remain the sole superpower. All recent U.S. presidents haveembraced the rise of China as a welcome development because it offers an opportunity to share responsibility for themaintenance of world order.

OBSERVATIONS:

I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN DEVELOPING A COOPERATIVE

RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER WORLD POWERS.

A. COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIPS BOLSTER U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY.

Barack Obama, U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY, 2010, 5.Our efforts to shape an international order that promotes a just peace must facilitate cooperation capable of

addressing the problems of our time. This international order will support our interests, but it is also an end that weseek in its own right.

James Jones, (U.S. National Security Adviser to the President), THE PRESIDENT’S 2010 NATIONAL SECURITYSTRATEGY, May 27, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://fpc.state.gov/142282.htm.

With regard to international order, we have an enduring national interest in an international order that promotespeace, security, and an opportunity through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges.

B. THE U.S. CAN NO LONGER AFFORD TO BE THE WORLD’S SOLE SUPERPOWER.

Christopher Preble, (Dir., Foreign Policy Studies, Cato Institute), THE POWER PROBLEM: HOW AMERICAN MILITARYDOMINANCE MAKES US LESS SAFE, LESS PROSPEROUS, AND LESS FREE, 2009, 133-134.

In polls, Americans consistently reject hegemony in favor of burden sharing. In a survey conducted by theChicago Council on Global Affairs in July 2006, 75 percent of respondents believed that the United States "should doits share to solve world problems together with other countries" and only 10 percent wanted the United States to"remain the preeminent world leader in solving international problems." By a similar margin, respondents agreed withthe proposition that "The U.S. is playing the role of world policeman more than it should be." Bruce Stokes andAndrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center point out in their book America against the World that since the end of theCold War, "no more than 13 percent of Americans have said the United States should be the single most importantleader in the world."

II. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS CREATED A CONDITION OF INTERDEPENDENCE BETWEEN THE UNITED

STATES AND CHINA.

A. THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA ARE NOW THE WORLD’S TWO LARGEST ECONOMIES.

C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINA’S RISE: CHALLENGES ANDOPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 9.

China has become a global economic superpower. It has the second largest national economy and is the secondlargest exporter. It has by far the world's largest current account surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Growth hasaveraged 10 percent for the past 30 years, the most stunning record in history. Real GDP in 2006 was about 13 timesthe level of 1978, when Deng Xiaoping initiated economic reforms.

B. CHINA’S ECONOMIC POWER WILL SOON EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF THE UNITED STATES.

David Mason, (Prof., Political Science, Butler U.), THE END OF THE AMERICAN CENTURY, 2009, 191.Some economists expect China's economy to exceed that of the United States in size within a generation or two.

Amazingly, the People's Republic of China already leads the world in the number of publicly traded companies withmarket values of more than $200 billion -- with eight among the top twenty in the world, compared to seven for theUnited States.

C. INTERDEPENDENCE IS CREATED BY CHINA’S FINANCING OF THE U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT.

Zachary Karabell, (Ph.D., Harvard U.), SUPERFUSION: HOW CHINA AND AMERICA BECAME ONE ECONOMY ANDWHY THE WORLD’S PROSPERITY DEPENDS ON IT, 2009, 279.

By 2008, China had become the largest creditor to the United States. It was the primary foreign buyer ofeverything from U.S. Treasuries to highly rated mortgage-backed securities. It made those investments because theUnited States was the largest market for China's exports and something had to be done with the dollars that werepiling up due to the trade surplus with the United States. And because China's currency was pegged against thedollar, the investment focus of China's central bank was on American assets.

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D. COOPERATION SUPPORTS THE FUNDAMENTAL INTERESTS OF BOTH NATIONS.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.[Chinese President] Hu's proposal that China and the United States should pursue global cooperation as partners

was echoed by Obama's unreserved agreement. Meanwhile, analysts held that China-US cooperation on global andregional issues was in the fundamental interest of the two peoples and all humanity for the following reasons: Chinaand the US are committed to the final goal of a world free of nuclear weapons. They will also join hands to tacklenuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. The two countries are devoted to the stability of the Korean Peninsula andthe solution of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. Given that the situation of the Korean Peninsula will continue tobe a major regional and global concern for a long time, China and the United States will work with other concernedparties for an early resumption of the six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

CONTENTIONS:

I. THE UNITED STATES HAS AN INTEREST IN SUPPORTING THE RISE OF CHINA.

A. EVERY RECENT U.S. PRESIDENT HAS SUPPORTED THE RISE OF CHINA.

Andrew Nathan, (Prof., Political Science, Columbia U.), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sept./Oct. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013from http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138009/andrew-j-nathan-and-andrew-scobell/how-china-sees-america?

Beginning with President Richard Nixon, who visited China in 1972, a succession of American leaders haveassured China of their goodwill. Every U.S. presidential administration says that China's prosperity and stability are inthe interest of the United States.

B. THE UNITED STATES SHARES MANY FOREIGN POLICY GOALS WITH CHINA.

Elizabeth Economy, (Sr. Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, May/June 2009, 15.The good news is that the United States and China do share some fundamental foreign policy goals: kickstarting

economic growth and maintaining an open global economy, maintaining peace and stability in East Asia, and haltingclimate change. There is already a robust process of government-to-government exchange, with more than 60bilateral dialogues and working groups in existence, including the Strategic Economic Dialogue, the U.S.-ChinaSenior Dialogue, and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. The United States and China have cooperated oncounterterrorism, negotiated with North Korea through the six-party talks, and undertaken joint research on alternativeenergy. Recently, the Pentagon welcomed the deployment of the Chinese navy for antipiracy operations in the Gulf ofAden, where both the United States and China depend on the same shipping lanes.

C. CHINA HAS SUPPORTED THE U.S. WAR ON TERRORISM.

Nina Hachigian, (Sr. Vice President, Center for American Progress & Former Analyst, RAND Corp.), THE NEXTAMERICAN CENTURY, 2008, 31.

Beijing stepped up, arresting numerous suspects with ties to al Qaeda in the wake of 9/11. At a critical time,China also pressured its close ally, Pakistan, to cooperate with the U.S. in counterterror operations and toaccommodate the war in Afghanistan. Beijing agreed to freeze the accounts of terrorist suspects in Chinese banks.China has acceded to eleven of twelve international counterterrorism conventions. The FBI now has an office inBeijing.


Most important, China has signed up to a major American antiterrorism program, the Container Security Initiative(CSI), designed to prevent terrorists from smuggling a nuclear weapon into the United States in a shipping container."The container is the potential Trojan horse of the twenty-first century," says the head of U.S. Customs, RobertBonner. Because American ports are vulnerable, CSI is aimed at finding WMDs before they are loaded onto ships.Each year over 3.2 million containers leave China's ports bound for the U.S., more than from any other country. U.S.customs officials are now welcomed in the ports of Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

D. CHINA SUPPORTS STABILITY IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER.

Jian Yang, (Prof., International Relations, U. of Auckland, New Zealand), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONALSECURITY, 2009, 25-26.

Chinese analysts, like Chinese officials, often point to the fact that China has joined over 100 internationalorganizations and has signed 300 international treaties. Premier Wen Jiabao notes that China stands ready to worktogether with the international community to facilitate the establishment of a new international political and economicorder. China "stands as a staunch force for international peace and stability on such major international and regionalissues bearing on peace such as the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula and Iranian nuclear issue," says Wen.


From a starting point of near zero in the violent Maoist period of the 1960s, China's memberships in internationalgovernmental organizations have shot up to well past the world average. Once in these organizations, far fromrejecting the norms, China has played largely within the rules. For example, in the WTO, China has shown no signs ofwanting to weaken the regime.

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E. CHINA SUPPORTS A COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES.

Evelyn Goh, (Prof., International Relations, Oxford U.), THE RISE OF CHINA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009,63-64.

As a result, Beijing publicly identifies cooperation rather than conflict as the main characteristic of current andfuture Sino–American relations. It is hoped that China's economic development will act as the foundation for US-China cooperation on technological advancements, and to ensure bilateral and regional stability to allowconcentration on domestic development.


Because of America's staying power, and the great importance to China of the U.S. relationship, China has goneout of its way to reassure Washington that it has no intention of trying to dethrone the US. Beijing is framing its path toreemergence as a "peaceful rise," with emphasis on "win-win" solutions and China's adherence to the principles ofpeace, equality, openness, and cooperation.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.During [Chinese President] Hu's visit, Obama lauded the extraordinary achievements China had made during the

past decades of development, and stressed that US-China cooperation served the core interests of both sides. TheUnited States welcomed China's rise, and China's peaceful development benefited the US and the whole world,Obama added. Meanwhile, the Chinese side said it welcomed the United States as an Asia-Pacific nation thatcontributed to peace, stability and prosperity in the region.

F. CHINA IS NOT INTERESTED IN MILITARY DOMINATION.

Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, (Prof., Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad), THE FRONTIER POST, Apr. 17,2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.

[China] has no imperial legacy in Asia like the US "Monroe Doctrine." Unlike Japan, it is not perceived with anymilitaristic ambitions. It has extensive borders with Central Asia and Russia and does not see South Asia as its"backyard". Growing economic and political interdependence with its Asian neighbors, including India allays fears ofChina's domination or expansionism.

G. THE RISE OF CHINA IS CONTRIBUTING TO INTERNAL ECONOMIC FREEDOM.

C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINA’S RISE: CHALLENGES ANDOPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 1-2.

China has changed much in the last 25 to 30 years, and not just for foreigners living there (now numbering150,000 in Beijing alone). Chinese citizens increasingly work where they want, live where they want, travel where theywant, and interact how they want in ways unimaginable 30 years ago. Their lives are also more complicated than theywere back then, changed by an economy that has grown 13 times since it began to open up in 1978 and agovernment that has scrambled to keep political pace with the dramatic social changes that have accompanied theeconomic development.

II. CHINA DOES NOT REPRESENT A MILITARY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

A. CHINA’S MILITARY CAPABILITY IS TINY COMPARED TO THE U.S.


A head-to-head comparison of China's military with that of the U.S. is like comparing a rusty old pickup to aneighteen-wheeler. While it is easy for observers to take one statistic or another out of context to make Chinesecapabilities seem foreboding, a complete comparison reveals the chasm that separates them.

Robert Farley, (Prof., International Relations, U. Kentucky), NEW ATLANTICIST, May 6, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013from http://www.acus.org/new_atlanticist/debate-do-we-need-11-carrier-groups-no.

Gates really understates US supremacy. It's not simply that the United States has eleven carrier battle groupsand the Russians have only one; the US is close allies with most of the other major naval powers in the world. TheBritish, French, Japanese, Italian, South Korean, Spanish, Canadian, and Australian navies are all quite large byworld standards, and are all tied to the United States by formal treaty arrangements.

B. CHINA’S MILITARY SPENDING IS A SMALL FRACTION OF U.S. SPENDING.

George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, U.S. DEFENSE SPENDING DWARFS THE REST OFTHE WORLD, Aug. 6, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/06/defense-spending-fact-of-the-day_n_1746685.html.

The United States spends 58 percent of the total defense dollars paid out by the world's top 10 military powers,which combined for $1.19 trillion in military funding in 2011. With its unparalleled global reach, the US outspendsChina, the next-biggest military power, by nearly 6-to-1.

PRO CASE #2: NONPROLIFERATION REGIME

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The thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in preventing the proliferation ofnuclear weapons. Unfortunately, the United States lacks the necessary influence with potential proliferators to properlysupport the nonproliferation regime. China, given its leadership position among non-aligned and developing countries, hasthe influence that the U.S. lacks. Fortunately, the rise of China has provided the motivation for the Chinese leadership tosupport international nonproliferation efforts. This supports U.S. national interests.

OBSERVATIONS:

I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN PREVENTING THE PROLIFERATION

OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

A. FAILURE IN THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME LEADS TO NUCLEAR TERRORISM

Patricia Hewitson, (J.D. Candidate, U. California at Berkeley School of Law), BERKELEY journal of INTERNATIONALLAW, 2003, 405.

The United States has a powerful interest in maximizing the effectiveness of the global nuclear nonproliferationregime, partly because it provides the best protection against nuclear terrorism.

B. FAILURE IN THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME WILL LEAD TO WAR.

Doug Bandow, (Sr. Fellow, Cato Institute), THE NATIONAL INTEREST, Apr. 1, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from .Nonproliferation long has been an American and European priority. Best achieved peacefully, the U.S.

government nevertheless views the objective as important enough to warrant war. Even today Washington refuses toforswear military action against Iran and North Korea.

CONTENTIONS:

I. CHINA’S RISE HAS TURNED THAT NATION INTO A SUPPORTER OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME.

A. BEFORE ITS RISE, CHINA ACTUALLY SUPPORTED THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

Stephanie Lieggi, (Professor, Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies), STRATEGIC STUDIESQUARTERLY, Summer 2010, 41.

From the establishment of the People's Republic in 1949 until the 1980s, China was highly suspicious of mostarms control efforts, viewing them as attempts by the United States and the Soviet Union to strengthen their existingstrategic superiority. Beijing was dismissive of arms control efforts in the early 1960s as it attempted to build its ownnuclear arsenal. China, particularly under Mao, advocated that more nations should have nuclear weapons to act as abalance against the massive arsenals of the two Cold War superpowers. In the 1970s and 1980s, Beijing suppliednuclear weapons–related technology and designs to countries in the Middle East and South Asia.

B. AFTER ITS RISE, CHINA HAS BECOME A SUPPORTER OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME.

Chu Shulong, (Prof., International Affairs, Tsinghua U., Beijing), THE LONG SHADOW: NUCLEAR WEAPONS ANDSECURITY IN 21

STCENTURY ASIA, 2008, 177-178.

China's position and action toward arms control, disarmament, and especially nonproliferation have changeddramatically since the mid-1990s. China, in the words of Americans and others, has shifted from being "part of theproblem" to "part of the solution." The year 2006 saw China becoming a force in the global efforts against theproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), such as in North Korea and Iran. Looking into the future, as longas China continues to be an integral part of global economic and security systems, and as long as its relations withthe United States and other Western countries are normal, it will remain committed to the global nonproliferationregime.

Chu Shulong, (Prof., International Affairs, Tsinghua U., Beijing), THE LONG SHADOW: NUCLEAR WEAPONS ANDSECURITY IN 21

STCENTURY ASIA, 2008, 179.

China's participation in global arms control and nonproliferation regimes is the primary constraint on Chinesenuclear behavior. China has taken a generally active position on nuclear arms control since the 1990s and nowsupports most international nuclear arms control regimes.

Stephanie Lieggi, (Professor, Monterey Institute Center for Nonproliferation Studies), STRATEGIC STUDIESQUARTERLY, Summer 2010, 39.

As China's view of the international community (and its own place in it) changed, so too did its policy towards theproliferation of WMD. Much of this change was brought about by a mixture of factors touching on various issuesfacing Beijing, such as national security interests, economic stability, and international prestige. The factors that mostaffected China's actions included significant international (particularly US) pressure placed on Beijing in the 1990s toadopt stronger nonproliferation policies, Beijing's growing recognition that proliferation of WMD was detrimental to itsown security interests, and concern within the Chinese leadership about the impact of China-based proliferation onBeijing's acceptance as a responsible member of the world community. One of the areas within the nonproliferationregime where China has most notably changed in recent years is the field of nonproliferation-related trade controls,particularly export controls.

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II. CHINESE INFLUENCE IS ESSENTIAL TO THE SUCCESS OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME.

A. CHINA PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN PREVENTING PAKISTAN FROM SHARING NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY

WITH OTHER NATIONS IN THE MIDEAST.


Since the mid-1990s, China has greatly improved its domestic control over the flow of sensitive technologies,signed bilateral agreements with the U.S., and joined international conventions such as the NPT, the ChemicalWeapons Convention, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and others, all of whichrequire adherence to specific guidelines on the transfer of nuclear materials. The People's Republic was instrumentalin felling the most notorious nuclear swap meet of our time, run by Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan, whose customersincluded Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and Libya.

B. CHINA HAS INFLUENCE WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN THAT THE U.S. LACKS.

Stuart Wiggin, (Editor, China Radio International), IRAN IS A CRUCIAL TEST OF CHINESE INFLUENCE, Mar. 8, 2012.Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-03/08/content_24840965.htm.

It is over the issue of Iran, more than Syria, where China's power of influence will come into play and truly betested. Iran provides 10-15 percent of China's oil supplies, but moves designed to reduce Chinese reliance on Iranianoil, alongside diplomatic posturing have sent the clearest message yet to Iran that their current position is becominguntenable.

Nancy Youssef, (Staff, McClatchy Newspapers), U.S. COUNTING ON CHINA’S INFLUENCE TO CURB NORTHKOREA, Nov. 24, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/11/24/104301/us-counting-on-chinas-influence.html.

The U.S. called on China Wednesday to use its political clout to rein in North Korea as American officialsconfronted the limits of their influence over one of the world's most unpredictable, and least understood, nuclearpowers. Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during an appearance on ABC's "The View,"that China's role was "critical" to keeping North Korea from undertaking provocative acts such as Tuesday's shellingof a South Korean island, which left four people dead, including two civilians. "The one country that has influence inPyongyang is China," Mullen said, referring to North Korea's capital. "Their leadership is absolutely critical."

C. CHINA HAS BEGUN USING ITS INFLUENCE WITH NORTH KOREA AND IRAN TO PREVENT NUCLEAR

PROLIFERATION.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Feb. 24, 2012, A12.In the two years before he died, Kim Jong-il visited China three times. During those visits, a Chinese official with

close ties to North Korea said, Beijing pledged to back Kim Jong-un as the next leader on the condition that NorthKorea would refrain from provocative actions, like a third nuclear detonation. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairsreiterated its basic public stance on Thursday, saying that peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula was of utmostimportance, and urging a resumption of the six-nation talks.

Kyodo News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Aug. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from Nexis.China has also spurned North Korea's repeated calls to acquire the Chinese J-type fighter and buy anti-freeze

fuel produced in China, diplomatic sources said. China's refusal to North Korea's proposal for a joint military exercisecontrasts starkly to growing bilateral cooperation in the economic field, such as joint development of special economiczones in border areas. It also contrasts with Beijing's readiness to hold security-related drills with other countries.China has held joint military exercises or antiterrorism drills with Russia and other members of the ShanghaiCooperation Organization, France and other countries.

Herb Keinon, (Staff), JERUSALEM POST, July 4, 2012, 3.The British ambassador said that the there was an "impressive measure of unity" inside the P5+1, including unity

demonstrated by Russia and China, and that the Iranians were disappointed if they thought they could play Russiaand China against the other countries inside the group. He also said that concerns China and Russia would undercutthe sanctions against Iran have not materialized, and that the Chinese have not increased their oil imports from Iran.China "is aware of the serious weight of international opinion" on this issue, he said.

Scott Peterson, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Sept. 13, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from Nexis.The board of the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna voted nearly unanimously today to condemn Iran over its

nuclear program, with the US and Western allies bringing Russia and China on board. The 35-member governingboard of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed "serious concern that Iran continues to defy" UNSecurity Council sanctions that require a halt to enrichment, and the resolution of outstanding questions aboutpossible nuclear weapons-related work.

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PRO CASE #3: ECONOMIC PROSPERITYThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in supporting economic prosperity,

both in America and around the globe. The rise of China has been an engine of economic prosperity – in the United States,in China, and around the world.

OBSERVATIONS:

I. ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.

A. REDUCING WORLD POVERTY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.

Vincent Ferraro, (Prof., International Politics, Mount Holyoke College), ECSP REPORT, 2003, 16.There are about two billion people in the world who cannot participate in any meaningful way in the global

economy. There is a clear national interest in deepening the process of economic integration to include the globalpoor.

Vincent Ferraro, (Prof., International Politics, Mount Holyoke College), ECSP REPORT, 2003, 12.The 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States was a watershed document in a number of ways—

including its assertion that addressing global poverty is important to U.S. national security.

B. MAINTAINING A GROWING U.S. ECONOMY IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF THE UNITED STATES.


With regard to prosperity, we have an enduring national interest in a strong, innovative, and growing U.S.economy and an open international economic system that promotes opportunity and prosperity for everyone.

CONTENTIONS:

I. THE RISE OF CHINA PROMOTES ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AROUND THE WORLD AND IN THE U.S.

A. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS DRAMATICALLY REDUCED WORLD POVERTY.

Charles Krakof, (Managing Partner of Koios Associates & Former Economic Consultant at the World Bank), EMERGINGMARKETS OUTLOOK, Aug. 21, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com/?p=1490.

China’s progress in reducing poverty dwarfs the combined effects of all other poverty reduction programsundertaken by anyone, anywhere in the world, over the past 30 years.

Charles Krakof, (Managing Partner of Koios Associates & Former Economic Consultant at the World Bank), EMERGINGMARKETS OUTLOOK, Aug. 21, 2010. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com/?p=1490.

Since 1978, when market-oriented economic reforms began, China has experienced the most rapid andsustained increase in human prosperity in world history. According to the World Bank, more than 600 million peoplehave been lifted out of poverty during this period. The number of Chinese living in poverty has fallen from 65% of thepopulation to around 10%. In both absolute numbers and percentage of population this is unprecedented.

Danny Quah, (Professor, Economics, London School of Economics), THE STRAITS TIMES, June 24, 2011. RetrievedJan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.

That global economic activity has moved east in this graphic fashion shows the rapid growth in incomes going tothe large chunks of humanity who live in China, India and East Asia. Together with this growth has been the liftingfrom extreme poverty of over 600 million people - a large and rapid improvement in the well-being of humanity,unprecedented in the history of this planet.

Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, (Prof., Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad), THE FRONTIER POST, Apr. 17,2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.

[China’s] economic accomplishments are that more than 350 million people have lifted out poverty,unemployment is lower and it has emerged as the second largest global economy with value of its domestic marketexceeding 5 trillion US and imports exceeding three trillion.

Parul Tandon, (MBA, Delhi Technological University), THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS, Feb. 27, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013from Nexis.

Recall what China looked like only 30 years ago. It was one of the world's poorest countries, ruled by totalitariangovernment. It was just emerging from Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution, which had destroyed universities, schoolsand factories, all to revitalize the revolution. Since then, 400 million people have been lifted out of poverty in China.Lawrence Summers, an American economist, points out that during the Industrial Revolution, the average European'sliving standards rose about 50% over the course of his lifetime (then about 40 years). In China, he calculates, theaverage person's living standards are set to rise by 10,000% in a lifetime! In two decades, China has experienced thesame degree of industrialization, urbanization and social transformation as Europe did in two centuries.

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B. THE RISE OF CHINA BENEFITS ALL NATIONS.

Danny Quah, (Professor, Economics, London School of Economics), THE STRAITS TIMES, June 24, 2011. RetrievedJan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.

In the last three global economic downturns, China provided a growth boost to the world economy multiple timeswhat the US provided. What good would it do if the West disrupted so successful a poverty-reducing machine, soeffective a stabilizing influence for the global economy'

Marilyn Wolf, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Dec. 5, 2011, 8.China's performance has been astonishing: "Since 1978 China has maintained rapid economic growth for 33

consecutive years. The average annual growth is 9.9 per cent and the average annual growth of foreign trade is 16.3per cent. Second, China's growth has also benefited the world. Thus, China's strong growth during the crisis was themost important driving force for the global economy.

Martin Wolf, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Dec. 5, 2011, 8.China's growth has also benefited the world. Thus, "China's strong growth during the crisis was the most

important driving force for the global economy." Similarly, "over 2000-07 two-thirds of the economies in Africa grew atmore than 5.5 per cent a year, and nearly one-third reached 7 per cent. Again, such unprecedented growth in Africawas in large part thanks to China."

Wen Jiabao, (Chinese Premier), BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, June 28, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.China's peaceful development is an opportunity rather than a threat to the rest of the world. China has become

an engine driving global economic growth, having contributed to over 20 percent of world economic growth each yearin the past five years. Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has imported close to 750 billion U.S. dollars of goodsevery year, creating over 14 million jobs for relevant countries and regions. China's import is expected to exceed 8trillion U.S. dollars in the next five years, and this will provide more business opportunities for other countries. The21st century should be a century of cooperation rather than conflict and rivalry. China is committed to upholding worldpeace. We have consistently called for settling international disputes by peaceful means and opposed the use offorce. China will work with the rest of the international community to undertake responsibilities, meet challenges andmake the international system more equitable, just and inclusive.

C. THE RISE OF CHINA SUPPORTS ECONOMIC PROSPERITY IN THE UNITED STATES.

1. China finances the U.S. deficit.

FINANCIAL TIMES, Sept. 6, 2011, 9.China financed the US current account deficit by recycling its own surplus into US Treasury bonds.

2. China’s economic infusion prevented an economic collapse during the 2008 downturn in the U.S.

Brian Milner, (Staff), THE GLOBE AND MAIL, June 17, 2011, A10.At the height of the global economic crisis in 2008, governments everywhere opened the taps and flooded their

financial systems with capital. But none came close to matching the scale, scope or speed of the Chinese response.Beijing pumped in close to $900-billion (U.S.), at a time when Washington was still debating spending its first $100-billion. Other major economies were staring at a job-crushing recession. China was worried because growth hadfallen below double digits. Unlike deficit-ridden governments in the U.S. and Europe, Beijing was - and still is -swimming in surpluses. So money was no object. The Chinese leadership was highly motivated to do whatever it tookto get the economy back on the fast track.

3. China offers major expansion markets for U.S. products.

David Wighton, (Staff), LONDON TIMES, Jan. 6, 2011, 39.Overcapacity is the great curse of the car industry. So the rise of China as the next great market could not have

come soon enough. China has already overtaken the US in terms of total vehicle sales and will do so in cars beforelong. For General Motors, China is already its biggest market.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Aug. 19, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis."It is estimated that in the next five years, China will import commodities worth more than 8 trillion U.S. dollars,"

[Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping] said, noting that China's total retail sales of consumer goods are expected toexceed 31 trillion yuan (5.17 trillion U.S. dollars). "This will provide more business opportunities for foreignenterprises, including US companies," he said.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 14, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.China has been the fastest growing market for US exports nine years in a row. Millions of American jobs are

closely tied to China-US trade. As of late October 2010, the United States had a total of 59,000 investment projects inChina, with a combined $64.625 billion in actual investment. US-funded enterprises post more than $220 billion insales on the Chinese market each year. Meanwhile, Chinese enterprises have also boosted their investments in theUnited States rapidly.

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II. CLAIMS THAT THE RISE OF CHINA THREATENS THE U.S. ECONOMY ARE MISTAKEN.

A. THE WORRY THAT CHINA WILL DUMP ITS U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS IS WITHOUT MERIT.

C. Fred Bergsten, (Dir., Peterson Institute for International Affairs), CHINA’S RISE: CHALLENGES ANDOPPORTUNITIES, 2008, 18.

Any partial sale of their current dollar holdings (or rumors thereof) would drive down the value of their remainingdollar holdings, probably sharply. The Chinese authorities are already under considerable domestic criticism for thesizable losses they have incurred as the dollar has dropped over the past six years, by a cumulative average of 25 to30 percent against other currencies, by more than 50 percent against the euro and some other plausible alternatives,and by even more against "real" assets such as oil and many other commodities. Since it would be technicallyimpossible for the Chinese to sell anything close to their dollar total of $1 trillion or so instantaneously, they would beshooting themselves in the financial foot in a major way through such action.

Barry Eichengreen, (Prof., Economics, U. Cal., Berkeley), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sep/Oct 2009, 53-68.The Chinese government is aware that it is trapped by the magnitude of its current dollar holdings. Selling U.S.

Treasury securities in the quantities needed to significantly alter the composition of China's reserve portfolio wouldmake the prices of these securities tank. If the People's Bank of China moved significant amounts of money fromdollars to other currencies, the dollar would depreciate, causing further losses on China's residual holdings. Thespecter of such effects deters Beijing from acting hastily.

Barry Eichengreen, (Prof., Economics, U. Cal., Berkeley), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Sep/Oct 2009, 53-68.John Maynard Keynes' famous remark comes to mind: "If you owe your bank manager a thousand pounds, you

are at his mercy. If you owe him a million pounds, he is at your mercy."

Zachary Karabell, (Ph.D., Harvard U.), SUPERFUSION: HOW CHINA AND AMERICA BECAME ONE ECONOMY ANDWHY THE WORLD’S PROSPERITY DEPENDS ON IT, 2009, 280.

If it no longer purchased U.S. debt, what would the country do with its vast dollar-denominated holdings? And ifthe U.S. economy truly collapsed, what would happen to those parts of the Chinese economy that depended onexports to the United States? Having lent the United States so much money, what happened on Wall Street was nowBeijing's problem just as it was Washington's albatross. And having borrowed so much from China, and with the bulkof American companies depending on China for growth, the fortunes of the United States were now linked to Beijing.

B. CHINA’S RISE PROVIDES A MAJOR INCENTIVE TO PRESERVE PEACEFUL RELATIONS.

Malcolm Turnbull, (Former Leader, Australia’s Liberal Party), THE GUARDIAN, Oct. 6, 2011, 41.The central role of trade in China's prosperity also argues for its rise to remain peaceful. At 55% of its GDP in

2010, it has more to lose than most from any conflict that disrupts global economic flows.

Kevin Cooney, (Prof., Political Science & International Relations, Union U.), THE RISE OF CHINA ANDINTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 40.

The United States is economically heavily investing itself in China as rapidly as possible. This economicinvestment ties China's future success to the United States and vice versa.

C. THERE IS NO RISK THAT THE DOLLAR WILL BE DISPLACED AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY –

THE RISE OF CHINA HAS ACTUALLY STRENGTHENED THE DOLLAR.

Sanjeev Sanyal, (Economist, Deutsche Bank), LONDON TIMES, Dec. 30, 2011, 36.Note how the relative rise of China did not diminish the role of the dollar and may even have enhanced it. Indeed,

like the Japanese during their period of high growth, the Chinese resisted the internationalization of the yuan untilvery recently and even now are proceeding cautiously. So should we expect the demise of the dollar? The best signof the resilience of the dollar-based system is that its trade-weighted index has been stable since the crisis began -hardly a sign that it is being abandoned. Far from it, the world appears to be willing to finance the US at very lowinterest rates.

ASIAMONEY, Oct. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.A global reserve currency is universally accepted as a repository of value and can be freely traded in deep and

liquid financial markets. Among such currencies count the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound and Swissfranc. As a result, the Chinese currency, the renminbi - also known as the yuan - is unlikely to become a key reservecurrency, let alone surpass that of the US dollar anytime soon.

Tom Holland, (Staff), SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, Feb. 10, 2012, 10.China is also opening up to cross-border capital flows. Although Beijing retains many restrictions, over the last

five years the value of China's foreign assets and liabilities has doubled to more than US$6 trillion. However, as thesecond chart shows, that's tiny by the standards of the US, or even Britain. China's gross external position is nowroughly the same size as that of Switzerland, whose currency the franc, according to the International Monetary Fund,makes up only about 0.1 per cent of the world's foreign reserves. Clearly China still has a long way to go on openingup to capital flows.

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D. CHINA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH HAS NOT COME AT THE EXPENSE OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.

Robert Kagan, (Sr. Fellow, Brookings Institution), AGAINST THE MYTH OF AMERICAN DECLINE, JAN. 17, 2012.

Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/01/17-us-power-kagan.In economic terms, and even despite the current years of recession and slow growth, America’s position in the

world has not changed. Its share of the world’s GDP has held remarkably steady, not only over the past decade butover the past four decades. In 1969, the United States produced roughly a quarter of the world’s economic output.Today it still produces roughly a quarter, and it remains not only the largest but also the richest economy in the world.People are rightly mesmerized by the rise of China, India, and other Asian nations whose share of the globaleconomy has been climbing steadily, but this has so far come almost entirely at the expense of Europe and Japan,which have had a declining share of the global economy.

E. CHINA IS NOW FULLY ON BOARD WITH THE PROTECTION OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS.

Xuan-Thao Nguyen, (Prof., Law, SMU School of Law), SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY LAW JOURNAL, Spring 2011, 774.Recent empirical data and translations of Chinese court decisions on intellectual property rights, however, offer a

startling new picture of China that directly contradicts the long-held view of China by the United States and the Westwith respect to intellectual property. The new data reveals that China has accelerated its embrace of intellectualproperty as an important asset. The Chinese society has become very protective of intellectual property rights, asseen through the tens of thousands of cases that were brought in recent years by Chinese individuals andcorporations against Chinese infringers.

F. CHINA’S ECONOMY NOW DEPENDS ON MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis."Today, our economies are entwined, and so are our futures," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was quoted

by the CNN as saying. Meanwhile, British newspaper The Guardian said China-U.S economic relations wereconsidered as interdependent relations rather than solely a trade partnership. Currently, the United States is China'ssecond largest export market and its major source of investment. In 2010, China's exports to the United Statesreached 280 billion US dollars, with more than 30 Chinese companies becoming listed on US capital markets. In themeantime, China is the US's third largest and fastest growing export market. As the total volume of US exports toChina reached 100 billion dollars, 500,000 jobs were created in the United States thanks alone to manufacturing andagricultural exports to China.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Jan. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.Wang Yong, director of the Centre for International Political Economy of Peking University, said closer economic

and trade relations were the engine and ballast stone for China-US ties. If their economies and cooperationdeveloped at the current rate, the interdependent China-U.S economies would also become a powerful driving forceand stabilizer for the world economy, Wang said.

Xinhua News Agency, BBC Worldwide Monitoring, Feb. 14, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.Today communications at all levels between China and the United States are closer than they have ever been.

So far more than 60 dialogue and consultation mechanisms have been created. In particular, the China-US Strategicand Economic Dialogue provides an important platform for expanding and deepening bilateral dialogue andcooperation at the strategic level. George Schwab, chairman of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy,said, "What China and the United States need to do is to open many, many more channels of communication, inorder to see where our interests coincide and where our interests differ. Let us talk to see how we can overcome thedifferences." Driven by head-of-state diplomacy, China-US cooperation, from politics to economics, from culture toscience and technology, is growing at multiple levels across the board with each passing day. Connections betweenthe two countries have increased to an extent never seen before.

Greg Torode, (Staff), SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST, Nov. 21, 2012, 1.Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday used his last meeting with US President Barack Obama to push for stability

between Washington and Beijing's new leadership. In a wide-ranging meeting at the ASEAN East Asia Summit inPhnom Penh, the two leaders discussed economic and security issues, including the growing territorial disputesbetween China and its neighbors. Wen, who will be stepping down from the post of premier next March, spoke of theglobal importance of the Sino-US relationship, urging continuing efforts to construct new relations. "Maintaining thesteady, healthy and stable development conforms to the fundamental interests of both countries and people. It is alsoconducive to peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and the world," he said. He added that mutualeconomic and financial interests could help the two countries tackle "the difficulties we have and resolve thedifferences and disagreements between us".

Dilip Hiro, (Journalist), AFTER EMPIRE: THE BIRTH OF A MULTIPOLAR WORLD, 2009, 147.Today, measured by the Purchasing Power Parity, China's GDP is only behind America's. Its foreign reserves of

$1.9 trillion are more than three times those of the sixteen-nation Eurozone. As the largest holder of U.S. Treasurybonds (maturing in five, ten, or thirty years), it has become the "indispensable nation" for the Federal Reserve Bank.

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CON CASE #1: U.S. LEADERSHIPThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in maintaining its leadership

position in the world. The rise of China undermines U.S. leadership because its economic strength is contributing to amilitary buildup designed to challenge U.S. supremacy. In addition, China persistently undermines international efforts tolimit the nuclear intentions of Iran and North Korea.

OBSERVATION:

I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A NATIONAL INTEREST IN MAINTAINING GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.

A. GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IS ESSENTIAL TO THE PRESERVATION OF PEACE AND PROSPERITY.


This National Security Strategy is one of national renewal and global leadership, and it advances our interests bybuilding the sources of American strength and influence and shaping a world that is more peaceful and certainly moreprosperous.

Michael G. Mullen, (Former Chairman, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff), COALITION FOR FISCAL AND NATIONALSECURITY'S STATEMENT ON THE FISCAL CLIFF, Dec. 4, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 fromhttp://www.cfr.org/financial-crises/coalition-fiscal-national-securitys-statement-fiscal-cliff-december-2012/p29610.

In the coming decades and beyond, America must continue its critical engagement and leadership in globalaffairs in order to protect the U.S. national interest and ensure a safer world. At the end of World War II, the UnitedStates represented a dominant share of the global economy, enabling an assured hegemonic status. The reality thatother nations rise in no way lessens the imperative for American leadership – we have unique collective strengths andremain the indispensable nation for global peace, prosperity and freedom.

B. THE LOSS OF U.S. LEADERSHIP WILL LEAD TO ANARCHY.

Fred Kaplan, (Ph.D., MIT & Foreign Policy Journalist), DAYDREAM BELIEVERS: HOW A FEW GRAND IDEASWRECKED AMERICAN POWER, 2008, 195.

On a more strategic level, a world without blocs or clear power centers could easily devolve into anarchy, inwhich no country or group of countries can amass the strength and legitimacy to reward the good, deter or punish thebad, and impose rules and order. In such a world, the shrewd assertion of American power remains essentialbecause America is the only nation theoretically capable of global leadership--because it is, for now, the only nationthat possesses global reach, politically, economically, and militarily.

Gideon Rachman, (Staff), FINANCIAL TIMES, Mar. 17, 2012, 13.Precisely because a liberal world order is dependent on an underpinning of US power, [Brookings Institution

Senior Fellow, Robert] Kagan argues that it is considerably more fragile than many people believe. If US declinebecomes a reality, then a liberal world order could crumble with it - much as the fall of Rome led to the Dark Ages. Ina post-American world, we might discover that "the alternative to American power was not peace and harmony butchaos and catastrophe".

Thomas Donnelly, (Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute), THE CURRENT AND FUTURE ROLES, MISSIONS,AND CAPABILITIES OF U.S. MILITARY LAND POWER, Hrg., Senate Armed Services Comm., Mar. 26, 2009, 20.

American international leadership has a number of geopolitical, economic, and security corollaries. Indeed, oursecurity role is the bedrock of today's global order; conversely, absent the organizing function played by the UnitedStates, the world would most likely devolve into a competition between various blocs of states, and non-state actors --terror groups, criminal syndicates and the like -- would find themselves in constant conflict. The dangers of failingstates, or, as John Quincy Adams called them, derelict states, would be exponentially greater and the world's ability toaddress these dangers so much weaker.

C. U.S. MILITARY POWER PRESERVES WORLD PEACE AND STABILITY.

Michael Mandlebaum, (Prof., International Relations, Johns Hopkins U.), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS INAMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, 2010, 6.

U.S. military power helps to keep order in the world. The American military presence in Europe and East Asia,which now includes approximately 185,000 personnel, reassures the governments of these regions that theirneighbors cannot threaten them, helping to allay suspicions, forestall arms races, and make the chances of armedconflict remote.

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Michael Mandlebaum, (Prof., International Relations, Johns Hopkins U.), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS INAMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY, 2010, 6-7.

In the international economy, much of the confidence needed to proceed with transactions, and the protectionthat engenders this confidence, comes from the policies of the United States. For example, the U.S. Navy patrolsshipping lanes in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, assuring the safe passage of commerce along the world'sgreat trade routes. The United States also supplies the world's most frequently used currency, the U.S. dollar.

CONTENTIONS:

I. THE RISE OF CHINA’S MILITARY UNDERMINES U.S. LEADERSHIP.

A. CHINA HAS TRIPLED ITS MILITARY BUDGET.

Ian Johnson, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 16, 2011, A6.China has become the largest trading partner with most of the countries in the region, undercutting American

economic influence. It also is projecting military power more broadly than at any other time in modern history. Its truemilitary budget is not made public, but experts say it has at least tripled over the past decade, allowing China tostrengthen a relatively weak maritime presence by building more modern ships that can operate with greater rangeand arming its first aircraft carrier. It has shown off what appears to be new stealth aircraft and has bought advancedweapons from Russia.

B. CHINA’S OFFICIAL DEFENSE SPENDING FIGURES DISGUISE A MUCH LARGER INCREASE.

Bill Emmott, (Former Editor-In-Chief, The Economist), RIVALS: HOW THE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN CHINA,INDIA AND JAPAN WILL SHAPE OUR NEXT DECADE, 2009, 241.

The Chinese government's latest defense budget, published in early 2007, included a 17.8 percent rise in militaryspending in renminbi terms, to the equivalent of $45 billion, a jump that sent eyebrows rising all over Asia andcertainly in Washington. That was the tenth successive double-digit rise in the annual military budget in local-currencyterms. The official figure is thought by analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank, to understate the true total by 30-50 percent because it omits unofficial revenues earned by thePeople's Liberation Army as well as weapons bought abroad and much defense equipment research.

C. CHINA’S MILITARY BUILDUP IS THE FASTEST IN THE WORLD.

Eamonn Fingleton, (Editor, Financial Times), IN THE JAWS OF THE DRAGON: AMERICA’S FATE IN THE COMINGERA OF CHINESE HEGEMONY, 2008, 302.

It is not an accident that the recent rate of growth in China's military spending -- at an average of more than 10percent a year since the mid-1990s -- has been one of the world's fastest. While a detailed discussion of likely futureU. S. - China military rivalry is beyond the scope of this book, a few points can be made. First, analysts at the U.S.Naval War College calculate that China will draw broadly level with the United States as a military power in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020.

D. CHINA’S RECENT TEST OF AN ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON DEMONSTRATED A CAPABILITY TO

DESTROY U.S. MILITARY SATELLITES.

David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMACONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 377.

The Chinese are thinking big. They recognize that America's vulnerability lies in its high-tech infrastructure. Sowhile the Taliban labored away in basements building magnetic IEDs to stick under cars, the Chinese labored away incomputer labs and missile sites. No one gets hurt in an antimissile attack. But China's military strategists know theycan do far more damage to the United States by threatening to take out the military and civilian satellite systems thanby threatening a nuclear confrontation.


The satellite the Chinese shot down--on the somewhat thin pretext that it could pose a danger if it fell on apopulated area--was traveling at a far higher altitude than the satellites that aim America's precision weapons, run itsGPS systems, keep cell phone calls connected, warn of troop movements, detect nuclear sites, and transmit financialdata around the world. Presumably, if Beijing could take out the weather satellite, it could turn off America's lights inspace.

E. CHINA IS UPGRADING ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL.

David Sanger, (Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times), THE INHERITANCE: THE WORLD OBAMACONFRONTS AND THE CHALLENGES TO AMERICAN POWER, 2009, 382-383.

What really grabs the attention of the China hawks in Washington, however, is the gradually increasing size andsophistication of the country's nuclear arsenal--and the number of weapons aimed at the United States.

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The Chinese began deploying a new, mobile-launched, land-based missile--called the DF-31A--that is difficult forAmerican forces to target and, perhaps more worrisome, can reach just about the entire United States. Americanintelligence officials estimated that by 2015, China will have 75 to 100 warheads aimed at American territory--notexactly how you treat a "strategic partner."

Robert Willard, (Commander, U.S. Forces, Pacific Command), CONGRESSIONAL DOCUMENTS AND PUBLICATIONS,Mar. 26, 2010. Retrieved Apr. 15, 2010 from Nexis.

China maintains a nuclear force capable of ranging most of the world, including the continental United States.This capability has been enhanced through the development of increasingly sophisticated road mobile deliverysystems as well as the development of the Type 094 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (JIN-class SSBN).Despite assertions that China opposes the "weaponization" of space, the PLA is developing a multi-dimensionalprogram to deny potential adversaries the use of space, an element of which was demonstrated in January 2007when China intentionally destroyed one of its own weather satellites with a direct ascent anti-satellite weapon.

F. THE CHINESE NAVAL BUILDUP IS SUBSTANTIAL.

John Tkacik, Jr., (Sr. Fellow, Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation), TAKING SIDES: CLASHING VIEWS INWORLD POLITICS, 2010, 99.

U.S. intelligence agencies can plainly see where the money is going. China is assembling a blue-water navy, witha submarine fleet of 29 modern boats, including 13 super-quiet Russian-made Kilo class subs and 14 Chinese-madeSong and Yuan class diesel electric submarines that are reportedly improved versions of the Kilos. At least 10 moreof these submarines are in China's shipyards, together with five new nuclear ballistic missile and attack boats. China'ssurface fleet is also undergoing a similar modernization.


China continues to field the largest conventional submarine force in the world totaling more than 60 boats; whilethe quality of China's submarine fleet is mixed the percentage of modern, quiet submarines in the fleet is growing.This fleet also includes a number of nuclear powered fast attack and ballistic missile submarines. China is alsodeveloping a new submarine launched nuclear ballistic missile, the JL-2, capable of ranging the western UnitedStates.


The PLA Navy is continuing to develop a "Blue Water" capability that includes the ability to surge surfacecombatants and submarines at extended distances from the PRC mainland. Modernization programs have includeddevelopment of sophisticated shipboard air defense systems as well as supersonic sea-skimming anti-ship cruisemissiles.

G. THE BUILDUP OF CHINESE AIR POWER IS SUBSTANTIAL.


China's power in the air and in space is also on the rise. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force has about300 Russian-designed fourth-generation Sukhoi-27 Flankers and a number of Chinese-built Jian-11 planes and 76Sukhoi-30 multi-role jets. With Russian and Israeli assistance, the PLA Air Force has acquired an additional 50 or soJian-10 fighters based on U.S. F-16 technology and reportedly plans to build 250 more. China's rocket forces are alsoexpanding at an unprecedented pace, with production and deployment of short-range ballistic missiles targeted atTaiwan increasing from 50 per year during the 1990s to between 100 and 150 per year today. Presumably, outputfrom Chinese ICBM factories is expanding at a similar pace. Most recently, China's January 12 test of highlysophisticated direct-ascent "kinetic kill vehicle" (KKV) technology, coupled with attempts to blind or laser-illuminate aU.S. reconnaissance satellite in 2006, are convincing evidence of the PLA's intention to neutralize the United States'military assets in space in any conflict.

H. THE CHINESE MILITARY BUILDUP DEMONSTRATES A DESIRE TO UNDERMINE U.S. HEGEMONY.


Despite the Chinese Communist Party leadership's espousal of China's "peaceful rise," the unprecedentedpeacetime expansion of China's military capabilities betrays a clear intent to challenge the United States in theWestern Pacific and establish itself as the region's predominant military power. With China's massive GDP [grossdomestic product] and military spending at an estimated 4.5 percent of GDP, the resources that Beijing now devotesto its armed forces surely make it a top global power. The exact methodology that U.S. intelligence agencies use toarrive at this estimate is classified, but it reportedly takes into account the fact that China's budget figures do notinclude foreign arms purchases, subsidies to military industries, any of China's space program (which is under thecommand of the Central Military Commission), or the costs of the 660,000 strong "People's Armed Police." It appearsthat some defense spending sectors that are not counted in the defense budget have increased much faster than thebudget itself.

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Kevin Cooney, (Prof., Political Science & International Relations, Union U.), THE RISE OF CHINA ANDINTERNATIONAL SECURITY, 2009, 41-42.

China seems to be announcing to the world through its actions (not words) that it is planning to engage theUnited States militarily in the future. Probably not in the near future, but someday in the future China plans to beAmerica's military enemy and is preparing its military for that day. As former CIA Director R. James Woolsey put it,"China is pursuing a national strategy of domination of the energy markets and strategic dominance of the westernPacific."

I. CHINA’S MILITARY BUILDUP IS DESTABILIZING.

Bill Gertz, (Staff), WASHINGTON TIMES, Aug. 25, 2011, A9."The pace and scope of China's sustained military investment have allowed China to pursue capabilities that we

believe are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding andmiscalculation, and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties," said Michael Schiffer, deputy assistantdefense secretary for East Asia, in releasing the report at the Pentagon.


China's rapid and comprehensive transformation of its armed forces is affecting regional military balances andholds implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. Of particular concern is that elements of China's militarymodernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region.

II. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY.

A. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE THREAT FROM IRAN.

1. Iran’s effort to develop nuclear weapons is a major threat to world peace and stability.

David Petraeus, (Commander, U.S. Central Command), UNITED STATES POLICY TOWARD AFGHANISTAN ANDPAKISTAN, Hrg., Sen. Armed Services Comm., Apr. 7, 2009, 21.

Iran is assessed by many to be continuing its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, which would destabilize theregion and likely spur a regional arms race. Iran employs surrogates and violent proxies to weaken competitor states,perpetuate conflict with Israel, gain regional influence, and obstruct the Middle East Peace Process. Iran also usessome of these groups to train and equip militants in direct conflict with U.S. forces.

2. China persistently undermines world sanctions to limit Iran’s nuclear program.

Quinton Farrar, (J.D. Candidate), FORDHAM LAW REVIEW, Apr. 2011, 2384.While the United States has taken the lead in working with its allies around the world to reduce business ties with

Iran, there is an acute concern on Capitol Hill that as countries pull out of Iran, other countries - China in particular -will move in to take over the abandoned projects.

Quinton Farrar, (J.D. Candidate), FORDHAM LAW REVIEW, Apr. 2011, 2385.The main credibility problem remains with China. Chinese firms have not only signed large development deals

with Iran on their own, but they have also back-filled projects abandoned by firms in compliance with the sanctions.

B. CHINA UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO LIMIT THE THREAT FROM NORTH KOREA.

1. North Korea’s effort to develop nuclear weapons is a major threat to world peace and stability.

Dennis Blair, (Dir., U.S. National Intelligence), CURRENT AND FUTURE WORLDWIDE THREATS TO THE NATIONALSECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES, Hrg. Senate Comm. on Armed Services, Mar. 10, 2009, 27.

Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and proliferation behavior threaten to destabilize East Asia. The North's October2006 nuclear test is consistent with our longstanding assessment that it had produced a nuclear device. Prior to thetest, we assessed that North Korea produced enough plutonium for at least a half dozen nuclear weapons.

Jonathan Pollack, (Prof., Asian and Pacific Studies, Naval War College), COMBATING WEAPONS OF MASSDESTRUCTION: THE FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL NONPROLIFERATION POLICY, 2009, 264.

Should North Korea opt to transfer abroad any of its nuclear technologies, materials, and weapons, the dangersto international peace and security would be exceedingly grave. Additionally, the regional consequences are alsohighly worrisome. Without nuclear weapons, the latent possibilities of a highly destructive military conflict on theKorean Peninsula remain very high; with nuclear weapons, the potential consequences of renewed conflict for theRepublic of Korea (ROK), Japan, and for U.S. forces are incalculably greater.

2. China persistently undermines world sanctions to limit North Korea’s nuclear program.

John Bolton, (Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations), THE GLOBE AND MAIL, Dec. 13, 2012, A21.Only Beijing can strong-arm Pyongyang to renounce nuclear weapons or move it toward reunification. China has

done neither. In fact, its trade has substantially increased recently, even as South Korea, Japan and others havereduced theirs. China supplies 90 per cent or more of North Korea’s energy supplies, and substantial amounts of foodand other humanitarian aid. China also facilitates the North’s evasion of international sanctions, and flies politicalcover for it in the Security Council.

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CON CASE #2: FREEDOM OF NAVIGATIONThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in maintaining the freedom of

navigation on the world’s oceans. A substantial share of world trade travels through international waters in the South ChinaSea. Recent Chinese actions in the South China Sea represent a threat to the freedom of navigation.

OBSERVATIONS:

I. THE UNITED STATES HAS A NATIONAL INTEREST IN MAINTAINING THE FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION.

Ian Johnson, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 16, 2011, A6.Most dramatically, at a regional meeting in Hanoi in the summer of 2010, Mrs. Clinton emphatically argued that

the United States had a vital interest in maintaining open and peaceful sea lanes in the South China Sea. She calledfor all disputes to be settled in international forums. China's foreign minister stormed out. Administration officials havehewed to Mrs. Clinton's line. ''The South China Sea is a very important maritime common for the entire region'' butalso for the United States, Adm. Robert F. Willard, commander of the United States Pacific Command, told reporterstraveling with Mr. Obama. The navigation lanes account for $5.3 trillion in bilateral annual trade, of which $1.2 trillionis American, he said.

Robert Gates, (U.S. Secretary of Defense), CONFERENCE ON MARITIME SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,June 21, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from http://csis.org/files/publication/110629_Percival_South_China_Sea.pdf.

We have a national interest in the freedom of navigation, in unimpeded economic development and commerce,and respect for international law.

Moises Lopes de Souza, (Analyst, Center of China-Latin America Studies at the National Chengchi University, Taipei),THE INTERESTS OF EXTERNAL POWERS IN THE CHINESE LAKE, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 fromhttp://www.watershed.com.br/article/216/the-interests-of-external-powers-in-the-chinese-lake.aspx.

In fact, the Asia-Pacific region and South China Sea area are inextricably linked with the U.S. national interestslisted above. The region encompasses some priorities such as: trade, oil business, security interests, security,strategy, and freedom of navigation. With regard to freedom of navigation, it is clear that a conflict could result inserious restrictions. Therefore, when the U.S. claimed its intention to take a more assertive role in solving the SouthChina Sea disputes, it was in fact defending its immediate economic and strategic interests.

II. CHINA IMPROPERLY CLAIMS OWNERSHIP IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

A. CHINA CLAIMS ALMOST ALL OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 25, 2012, A8.The vagueness of China's claims to islands and energy resources in the sea has rattled other claimants, the new

report said. China bases some of its claims in the sea on discoveries by ancient Chinese navigators. Morespecifically, China lays claim to everything within what is called a nine-dash map drawn shortly after World War II. Bysome estimates, the nine dashes mark off 80 percent of the South China Sea. The Central Military Commission,China's most powerful military body, has approved the deployment of a garrison of soldiers from the People'sLiberation Army to guard disputed islands claimed by China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, the state-runXinhua news agency said Sunday.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, June 1, 2012, A10.China argues that freedom of navigation comes into force only 200 nautical miles from a nation's coast, an

argument that contravenes the Law of the Sea and, if put into effect, would basically render the South China SeaBeijing's private preserve.

B. CHINESE CLAIMS VIOLATE STANDARD INTERPRETATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW.

Bonnie Glaser, (Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies), ARMED CLASH IN THE SOUTH CHINASEA, Apr. 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.cfr.org/east-asia/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883.

The United States has important interests in the peaceful resolution of South China Sea disputes according tointernational law. With the exception of China, all the claimants of the South China Sea have attempted to justify theirclaims based on their coastlines and the provisions of UNCLOS [UN Convention on the Law of the Sea]. China,however, relies on a mix of historic rights and legal claims, while remaining deliberately ambiguous about themeaning of the "nine-dashed line" around the sea that is drawn on Chinese maps. Failure to uphold international lawand norms could harm U.S. interests elsewhere in the region and beyond. Ensuring freedom of navigation is anothercritical interest of the United States and other regional states.

Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11.China set the direction for what has occurred since 2009 when it began seriously pushing the so-called nine-dash

line map, declaring its sovereignty over 80 per cent of the South China Sea. The staking of this almost comicallyaudacious claim has since been augmented by rising numbers of incursions from Chinese fishing boats, oftenemboldened by the accompanying presence of government surveillance vessels.

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CONTENTIONS:

I. CHINA’S RISE HAS EMBOLDENED IT TO CLAIM OWNERSHIP OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

A. CHINA HAS BECOME MORE ASSERTIVE AS ITS ECONOMIC POWER HAS INCREASED.

NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 19, 2012, SR-10.Both China and its neighbors bear responsibility for ratcheting up the tension. But there is no question that

China's economic power and its assertive use of its navy and commercial vessels to project influence has changedthe regional dynamics and worried many of its smaller neighbors. Beijing's ambitions are large: the president of aChinese research institute, Wu Shicun, told The Times's Jane Perlez that China wanted to control no less than 80percent of the sea.

B. CHINA PERCEIVES IT NOW HAS THE CLOUT TO CLAIM OWNERSHIP OVER INTERNATIONAL

WATERS.

Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11.The ingredients for conflict in the South China Sea and the East China Sea have been in place for some time, but

it's only since 2009 that the latest round of spot fires have started. According to [Chris] Rahman [of the University ofWoollongong], part of this is simply down to China's rising economic clout and military and paramilitary capabilities.“They are becoming more assertive because they can,” he says.

II. CHINA IS RESTRICTING THE FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

A. CHINA CLAIMS THE RIGHT TO BOARD AND SEIZE VESSELS IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 2, 2012, A4.The Chinese Foreign Ministry said last week that China was within its rights to allow the coast guard to board

vessels in the South China Sea. The new rules go into effect on Jan. 1. According to a report in an English-languagestate-run newspaper, China Daily, the police and coast guard will be allowed to board and seize control of foreignships that ''illegally enter'' Chinese waters and order them to change course.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Dec. 2, 2012, A4.New rules announced by a Chinese province last week to allow interceptions of ships in the South China Sea are

raising concerns in the region, and in Washington, that simmering disputes with Southeast Asian countries over thewaters will escalate. The move by Hainan Province, which administers China's South China Sea claims, is being seenby some outside analysts as another step in the country's bid to solidify its claims to much of the sea, which includescrucial international shipping lanes through which more than a third of global trade is carried.

Jemy Gatdula, (Philippines Journalist), BUSINESSWORLD, Dec. 7, 2012, 5.China's government, for some inexplicable reason, is again playing the bully card. Less than a month after

declaring its desire of resolving the territorial disputes peacefully among the Asian countries involved, it then pulls abizarre stunt of legislating a measure that will supposedly authorize its police officers to board and inspect vesselsfound within the said territories.

B. CHINA INTENDS TO EXCLUDE U.S. NAVAL VESSELS FROM INTERNATIONAL WATERS.

Andrew Krepinevich, (Pres., Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments), FOREIGN AFFAIRS, Jul/Aug 2009, 18-33.East Asian waters are slowly but surely becoming another potential no-go zone for U.S. ships, particularly for

aircraft carriers, which carry short-range strike aircraft that require them to operate well within the reach of the PLA'SA2/AD systems if they want remain operationally relevant. The large air bases in the region that host the U.S. AirForce's short-range strike aircraft and support aircraft are similarly under increased threat. All thus risk becomingwasting assets. If the United States does not adapt to these emerging challenges, the military balance in Asia will befundamentally transformed in Beijing's favor. This would increase the danger that China might be encouraged toresolve outstanding regional security issues through coercion, if not aggression.

C. CHINA’S NEW POLICY WILL END FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

Harsh Pant, (Prof., Politics, Kings College, London), DNA, Sept. 10, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.When Beijing claimed that it considered its ownership of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea as a "core

interest," fears increased in Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia that China is seeking to use itsgrowing maritime might to dominate not only the hydrocarbon-rich waters of the South China Sea but also its crucialshipping lanes, the lifeline of regional economies.

Scot Marciel, (Deputy Assistance Secretary of State, East Asia & Pacific Affairs), MARITIME DISPUTES ANDSOVEREIGNTY ISSUES IN EAST ASIA, Hrg., Senate Comm. on Foreign Relations, July 15, 2009, 6.

The sea-lanes that run through East Asia are some of the world's busiest and most strategically important. Theyserve as the prime arteries of trade that have fueled the tremendous economic growth of the region and broughtprosperity to the U.S. economy as well. Billions of dollars of commerce -- much of Asia's trade with the world,including the United States -- flows annually through those waters. Over half of the world's merchant fleet by tonnagesails through the South China Sea alone each year.

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III. CHINA’S RESTRICTION OF NAVIGATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MAY WELL LEAD TO WAR.

A. CHINA’S NEW ASSERTIVENESS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED CONFRONTATIONS WITH ITS

NEIGHBORS.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 12, 2012, A6.The dispute keeps escalating. On July 31, the 85th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army,

the Chinese Defense Ministry heralded the occasion by announcing ''a regular combat-readiness patrol system'' forthe waters in the sea under China's jurisdiction. The government then said it had launched its newest patrol vessel: a5,400-ton ship. It was specifically designed to maintain ''marine sovereignty,'' said People's Daily, the CommunistParty's leading newspaper.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 24, 2012, A4.On Monday, President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines said that his country would not back down from its

dispute with China, saying in an address that the nation's military would get dozens of new aircraft and ships fordefense of the shoal, which Manila identifies as Bajo de Masinloc. “There are those who say that we should let Bajode Masinloc go,” Mr. Aquino said, according to The Associated Press. “But if someone entered your yard and told youhe owned it, would you agree?” Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei also have conflicting claims in the South China Sea,making the area a source of a potential military showdown.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, July 25, 2012, A8.The disputes between China and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South China Sea have

become so intense, the prospect of open conflict is becoming more likely, an authoritative new report says. Thedisputes, enmeshed in the competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to the report, bythe International Crisis Group, a research organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions. ''All of thetrends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of resolution are diminishing,'' said the report, titled ''Stirring Up theSouth China Sea: Regional Responses.'' The pessimistic conclusion came a day after China stepped up its politicaland military control of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which both Vietnam and the Philippines claim, and theMacclesfield Bank, claimed by the Philippines.

B. CHINA NOW SEEMS INTERESTED IN TESTING THE LIMITS OF AMERICAN RESOLVE.

Jane Perlez, (Staff), NEW YORK TIMES, June 1, 2012, A10.Superficially, the squabble was over some rare corals, clams and poached sharks that Philippine Navy seamen

were trying to retrieve in early April from the fishing boats operating in the Scarborough Shoal of the South China Seauntil two Chinese Marine Surveillance craft intervened. After two tense days, the Philippine ship -- a refitted CoastGuard cutter sent by the United States last year to beef up its ally's weak defenses -- withdrew. But the stakes weremuch larger, as the insistent claims ever since of sovereignty over the shoal by both the Philippine and Chinesegovernments made clear. The incident intensified longstanding international questions over the strategically critical,potentially energy-rich South China Sea that have become more urgent this year as the long-dominant United Statesand fast-growing China both seek to increase their naval power in the region. ''We're just pawns,'' said RobertoRomulo, a former foreign secretary of the Philippines who argues that China is flexing its muscles in a bid to gainunimpeded access to vast reserves of natural gas and oil believed to be buried under the South China Sea. ''China istesting the United States, that's all it is. And China is eating America's lunch in Southeast Asia.''

NEW YORK TIMES, Aug. 19, 2012, SR-10.China has enlarged its army garrison on a bit of land known as Yongxing Island. Mr. Wu said the aim was to

allow Beijing to ''exercise sovereignty over all land features inside the South China Sea,'' including more than 40islands ''now occupied illegally'' by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. The Obama administration protested thatthis provocative act risked further inflaming the situation. In return, a leading Chinese newspaper told the UnitedStates to ''shut up'' and stop meddling in matters of Chinese sovereignty.

C. CONFRONTATIONS COULD PULL THE UNITED STATES INTO A WAR WITH CHINA.

Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11.The region is on edge over threats of a trade war or military action The US would be obliged to intervene,

potentially sparking a war between the era's two great powers. China's great reformer, Deng Xiaoping, said it was“beyond the wisdom” of his generation to find a solution to the squabble between his country and Japan over theSenkaku Islands.

Rick Wallace, (Staff), THE AUSTRALIAN, Sept. 24, 2012, 11.Events in the South China Sea have been largely overtaken by the latest flare-up in the Senkakus, which experts

say is most dangerous, as it pits Asia's two major military powers against each other. And with the Senkaku Islandscovered by the US-Japan defence treaty, a Chinese attack on them would mean the US would be obliged tointervene, potentially sparking a war between the era's two great powers. Security strategist Chris Rahman of theUniversity of Wollongong says the Senkakus dispute is the most dangerous because of the strength of the playersinvolved. He warns that there is a likelihood of Australia becoming involved if a conflict develops. “You aren't talkingabout small or weak states that are going to be pushed around,” Rahman says. “If China were to launch some sort ofaction against Japan, that would almost certainly bring the US into it.”

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CON CASE #3: CYBERWARFAREThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a fundamental national interest in protecting vital systems from

acts of cyberwarfare. This case will demonstrate that China is actively preparing to engage in cyberwarfare with the UnitedStates.

OBSERVATION:

I. THE UNTIED STATES HAS A FUNDAMENTAL NATIONAL INTEREST IN PROTECTING ITSELF FROM

CYBERWARFARE.

A. AMERICAN CONSUMERS ARE VULNERABLE TO CYBERWARFARE.

Report of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, INVESTIGATIVE REPORT ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITYISSUES POSED BY CHINESE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES, Oct. 8, 2012, 1.

The threat posed to U.S. national-security interests by vulnerabilities in the telecommunications supply chain isan increasing priority given: the country’s reliance on interdependent critical infrastructure systems; the range ofthreats these systems face; the rise in cyber espionage; and the growing dependence all consumers have on a smallgroup of equipment providers.


The risk posed to U.S. national-security and economic interests by cyber-threats is an undeniable priority. First,the country’s reliance on telecommunications infrastructure includes more than consumers’ use of computer systems.Rather, multiple critical infrastructure systems depend on information transmission through telecommunicationssystems. These modern critical infrastructures include electric power grids; banking and finance systems; natural gas,oil, and water systems; and rail and shipping channels; each of which depend on computerized control systems.Further, system interdependencies among these critical infrastructures greatly increase the risk that failure in onesystem will cause failures or disruptions in multiple critical infrastructure systems. Therefore, a disruption intelecommunication networks can have devastating effects on all aspects of modern American living, causingshortages and stoppages that ripple throughout society.

B. THE U.S. MILITARY IS VULNERABLE TO CYBERWARE.

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.The US, because it's so wired, is more vulnerable than most big powers to this new form of warfare. It's the price

the country may one day pay for being an advanced and open society. "If the nation went to war today, in a cyberwar,we would lose," Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence from 2007 to 2009, told a US Senate committee ayear ago. "We're the most vulnerable. We're the most connected. We have the most to lose."

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.As well armed as the US is, however, its defenses are porous. The US may have the mightiest military in the

world, but it is also the most computerized - everything from smart bombs to avionics to warship controls - making itunusually vulnerable to cyberassault.

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.Unlike many of its potential adversaries, the Pentagon is heavily reliant on computer networks. Over the past two

decades, US industry, along with the military and federal agencies, have linked some networks and elements of thenation's infrastructure - power plants, air traffic control systems, rail lines - to the notoriously insecure Internet. Itmakes it easier, faster, and cheaper to communicate and conduct business - but at a cost. Almost all electrical powerused by US military bases, for instance, comes from commercial utilities, and the power grid is a key target ofadversaries. "We're pretty vulnerable today," says a former US national security official. "Our defense is superporousagainst anything sophisticated."

CONTENTION:

I. THE RISE OF CHINA HAS PROVIDED THAT NATION WITH THE MEANS TO ENGAGE IN CYBERWARFARE.

A. CHINA’S ECONOMIC PROWESS FUNDS A SUBSTANTIAL CYBERWARFARE CAPABILITY.

Applied Technology Institute, CYBER WARFARE, Oct. 4, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 2, 2013 from http://www.aticourses.com/blog/index.php/2012/10/04/cyber-weapons-are-they-the-deadliest-means-of-modern-warfare/.

Chinese offensive capabilities in cyberspace are more effective than ever and are the subject of interest by theinternational community which fears the rise of China as a technological colossus. The Pentagon is convinced thatChina is investing heavily in an effort to improve its cyber stature and ability to conduct offensive operations.

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B. CHINESE BUSINESS INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S. ENABLE CYBERWARFARE.

Mark Clayton, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, Mar. 7, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.If only part of this infiltration turned out to be corporate espionage, that would be bad enough. But there's a more

insidious threat lurking underneath. In his book "Cyber War," Richard Clarke, former counterterrorism chief with theNational Security Council, writes that foreign nations are "preparing the battlefield" in key US industries and militarynetworks, in part by creating "trapdoors" in electronic industrial-control systems. These trapdoors, in the form of nearlyinvisible software "rootkits," are designed to give the attacker access and control over industries' computer networks,which could later be used to disrupt or destroy operations - for instance, of the US power grid.

C. U.S. MILITARY USE OF CHINESE ELECTRONICS ENABLES CYBERWARFARE.

Reuters News Service, DEFENSE WEB, Mar. 9, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2012 from Nexis.The military's close ties to large Chinese telecommunications firms create a path for state-sponsored

penetrations of supply networks for electronics used by the U.S. military, government and private industry, the reportadded. That has the potential to cause a "catastrophic failure of systems and networks supporting criticalinfrastructure for national security or public safety," according to the study. On the military side, "Chinese capabilitiesin computer network operations have advanced sufficiently to pose genuine risk to U.S. military operations in theevent of a conflict," it said.

II. CHINA HAS DEMONSTRATED ITS WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN CYBERWARFARE.

A. CHINESE MILITARY DOCTRINE CALLS FOR THE USE OF CYBERWARFARE.

Bill Gertz, (Staff), WASHINGTON TIMES, Aug. 25, 2011, A9.China's cyberwarfare capabilities likely would serve future military operations by gathering intelligence,

constraining enemy action or slowing their response, and bolstering conventional attacks during a crisis or conflict.Chinese military writings state that China plans to use its cyberwarfare weapons to achieve information superiorityand to counter a stronger foe.

B. CHINESE STRATEGY WILL ATTACK CIVILIAN SECTORS AS A WAY OF CRIPPLING THE U.S. MILITARY.

South China Morning Post, BBC WORLDWIDE MONITORING, Aug. 1, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.China's guerilla attacks would avoid defense strongholds such as military command centres. Instead, it would

target civilian sectors such as the power grid, financial system, international trade, transport and even hospitals tocause the greatest damage, given that more than 95 per cent of the US military's network is connected to the internet.

C. CHINA IS USING ITS ACCESS TO THE U.S. ECONOMY TO PREPARE FOR CYBERWARFARE.

Reuters News Service, DEFENSE WEB, Mar. 9, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2012 from Nexis.Chinese cyberwarfare would pose a genuine risk to the U.S. military in a conflict, for instance over Taiwan or

disputes in the South China Sea, according to report for the U.S. Congress. Operations against computer networkshave become fundamental to Beijing's military and national development strategies over the past decade, said the136-page analysis by Northrop Grumman Corp. It was released on Thursday by the congressionally created U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The report, based on publicly available information, said Chinesecommercial firms, bolstered by foreign partners, are giving the military access to cutting-edge research andtechnology, Reuters reports.

Anna Mulrine, (Staff), CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, May 18, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.A report released last year by the US intelligence agencies called China's cyberespionage a "persistent threat to

US economic security." Two US House members went further: "Every morning in China, thousands of highly trainedcomputer spies now wake up with one mission: Steal U.S. intellectual property that the Chinese can use to furthertheir economic growth," Reps. Mike Rogers (R) of Michigan and C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) of Maryland, chairmanand ranking member, respectively, of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, wrote in an op-edarticle last month. "American companies are hemorrhaging research and development on products ranging fromfighter engines, to pesticides, to cutting-edge information technology."


The capacity to maliciously modify or steal information from government and corporate entities provides Chinaaccess to expensive and time-consuming research and development that advances China’s economic place in theworld. Access to U.S. telecommunications infrastructure also allows China to engage in undetected espionageagainst the United States government and private sector interests. China’s military and intelligence services,recognizing the technological superiority of the U.S. military, are actively searching for asymmetrical advantages thatcould be exploited in any future conflict with the United States. Inserting malicious hardware or software implants intoChinese-manufactured telecommunications components and systems headed for U.S. customers could allow Beijingto shut down or degrade critical national security systems in a time of crisis or war. Malicious implants in thecomponents of critical infrastructure, such as power grids or financial networks, would also be a tremendous weaponin China’s arsenal.

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CON CASE #4: UNFAIR ECONOMIC PRACTICESThe thesis of this case is that the United States has a national interest in sustaining the strength of its economy. The

rise of China undermines this interest as manufacturing jobs are lost, companies are subjected to unfair trading practices,and the value of the dollar is threatened.

I. THE RISE OF CHINA UNDERMINES THE STRENGTH OF THE U.S. ECONOMY.

A. THE RISE OF CHINA HARMS U.S. WORKERS.

Robert Scott, (Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research, Economic Policy Institute), THE CHINA TOLL, Aug.23, 2012. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013 from http://www.epi.org/publication/bp345-china-growing-trade-deficit-cost/.

Since China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001, the extraordinary growth of trade between China andthe United States has had a dramatic effect on U.S. workers and the domestic economy, though in neither case hasthis effect been beneficial. The United States is piling up foreign debt and losing export capacity, and the growingtrade deficit with China has been a prime contributor to the crisis in U.S. manufacturing employment. Between 2001and 2011, the trade deficit with China eliminated or displaced more than 2.7 million U.S. jobs, over 2.1 million ofwhich (76.9 percent) were in manufacturing. These lost manufacturing jobs account for more than half of all U.S.manufacturing jobs lost or displaced between 2001 and 2011.

B. CHINA SYSTEMATICALLY ENGAGES IN UNFAIR TRADING PRACTICES.

Peter Navarro, (Prof., Business, U. California at Irvine), LOS ANGELES TIMES, June 21, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 3, 2013from http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/21/opinion/la-oe-navarro-trade-china-20110621.

The most potent of China's "weapons of job destruction" are an elaborate web of export subsidies; the blatantpiracy of America's technologies and trade secrets; the counterfeiting of valuable brand names like Nike and Chevy; acleverly manipulated and grossly undervalued currency; and the forced transfer of the technology of any Americancompany wishing to operate on Chinese soil or sell into the Chinese market. Each of these unfair trade practices isexpressly prohibited both by World Trade Organization rules as well as rules established by the U.S. government

Brett Decker, (Staff, Wall Street Journal), THE WASHINGTON TIMES, Nov. 15, 2011, B1.Even devout free-traders agree that a working system of free trade depends on a regime of rules that prohibits

uncompetitive national practices that prop up or unduly support domestic industries. A May 2011 editorial in the NewYork Times offers a critique of Beijing practices with which almost anyone on the ideological spectrum can agree."The list of complaints is long: 80 percent of the computer software in China is counterfeit. Beijing just published anew investment catalog that keeps a long list of industries off limits for American firms," the old Gray Lady protested."It changed the investment vetting process to allow Chinese companies to recommend barring acquisitions by foreignrivals. It has done nothing to reduce the enormous subsidies in the form of cheap credit to favored state-owned firms."The catalog of Beijing's sins goes on and on, but the point is that the People's Republic can essentially do what itwants and it gets away with it.

C. CHINA UNFAIRLY MANIPULATES THE VALUE OF ITS CURRENCY.

AFL-CIO, LEGISLATIVE GUIDE, 2011, 8.2.China’s exchange-rate policy has contributed significantly to our bilateral trade deficit, which increased from $84

billion in 2001 to $252 billion in 2010 (that does not include December 2010, so will be revised upward), setting anew, record bilateral trade deficit. Economists across the political spectrum agree China is actively manipulating itscurrency. Some economists suggest the manipulated currency provides an effective export subsidy of at least 30percent.

D. CHINA INTENDS TO REPLACE THE DOLLAR AS THE WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY WITH THE YUAN.

THE NATION, Dec. 23, 2011. Retrieved Jan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.China is keen to promote its yuan as the international reserve currency of choice. It has signed several bilateral

currency swap agreements with other countries to promote the use of the yuan. This would circumvent the use of theUS dollar as the medium of international transactions. Certainly, Washington is watching this development with asense of alarm. Any challenge to the dollar's supremacy would erode US military might, which has been financedlargely by dollar debt creation. China is waiting for the right timing to float the yuan outright so that it can become aglobal reserve currency to compete against the dollar, the euro and the yen. Right now it is preparing theinfrastructure to make this arrangement possible, using Hong Kong as a financial centre for the yuan trade.

Arvind Subramanian, (Sr. Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics), NEWSWEEK, Dec. 19, 2011. RetrievedJan. 1, 2013 from Nexis.

Having the dollar as the world's premier reserve currency is an advantage for American traders and financiersbecause the fact of paying and being paid in dollars shields them from having to bear any risk of currency valueschanging. And it is an "exorbitant privilege" for the American government, which can raise money and finance itsdeficits more cheaply than otherwise because foreigners want to hold the dollar as an asset. It is, above all, a symbolof American dominance.

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