Peter Lelie

The Social Situation in the EU and the Europe 2020

Strategy

Alliances to Fight Poverty Rome 28 April 2011

1. The social situation in the European Union after the Lisbon strategy.

2. The Europe 2020 Strategy and its social dimension.

3. The difficult birth of the poverty and social exclusion target: reconsidering the concept of poverty.

4. The Platform against Poverty: an effective tool for delivering on the target?

5. The European Semester: the experience so far…

What I intend to cover…

- What does the Social OMC’s headline indicator on poverty, the at-risk-of-poverty rate, tell us?

- The Social Protection Committee evaluation of the impact of the Lisbon strategy on social protection and social inclusion.

1. The social situation in the EU after the Lisbon strategy: two pieces of evidence

1.1 The population at-risk-of-poverty in the EU

Growth, Jobs and Social Progress: a contribution to the evaluation of the social dimension of the Lisbon strategy. Social Protection Committee Report. September 2009.

http://www.lavoro.gov.it/NR/rdonlyres/4502C661-F4FC-4B1D-AC80-A581DAF05E07/0/Lisbon_TF_Final_report.pdf

Four key messages:- impact economic growth- impact employment growth- impact of social protection system reform- impact of the economic and financial crisis

1.2 The SPC evaluation of the impact of the Lisbon strategy on social protection and inclusion

The impact of economic growth- Economic growth has in general improved overall

living standards and has allowed many governments to devote more resources to social policy.

- But in spite of the redistributive impact of social protection, inequalities have often increased and poverty and social exclusion remains a major issue in most EU countries, although with substantial differences across Europe.

The impact of employment growthHaving a job remains the best safeguard against poverty and social exclusion but recent employment increases have not sufficiently reached those furthest from the labour market and jobs have not always succeeded in lifting people out of poverty.

There are problems of:- poor access to training for the low skilled;- lack of enabling services;- poor design of benefit systems creating financial disincentives;- labour market segmentation and poor job quality;- high levels of in work poverty.

The impact of social protection system reform- Reforms of social protection systems have

improved the long term financial sustainability but issues of accessibility and adequacy of social protection remain.

- Higher employment rates, longer working lives and increased healthy life expectancies can contribute to adequacy and sustainability of social protection.

- Modernisation is needed to ensure effective access to quality services. Effective health care and long term care can be instrumental in improving health.

The impact of the crisis- Social protection systems can play a crucial role as

automatic stabilizers and sustain the productive capacity of the economy.

- In some Member States there are significant weaknesses and loopholes in the social safety nets.

- Financial sustainability may be an issue and in countries with major public finance imbalances there is little room for manoeuvre.

- Promoting labour market participation while improving fairness, efficiency and effectiveness of social spending is crucial in the current context.

- The new strategy should be seen against the background of the financial and economic crisis.

- The overall aim is much stronger coordination of economic and budgetary policies of the Member States. The main priorities will be budgetary consolidation, structural reforms and growth enhancing measures.

- The new strategy will be integrated: synchronisation of the Europe 2020 strategy and a reinforced Stability and Growth Pact.

- New timing to maximise impact: the European Semester.

2. The Europe 2020 strategy and its social dimension

The big picture

Macro-economic Surveillance

Thematic coordination Fiscal Surveillance

Growth and StabilityPact

Five headline targets

Ten integrated guidelines

Europe 2020 Strategy

National ReformProgrammes

Stability and Convergence Programmes

Three strategic priorities

- smart growth: strengthening knowledge and innovation as drivers of future growth;

- sustainable growth: promoting a more resource efficient, greener and more competitive economy;

- inclusive growth: fostering a high-employment economy delivering social and territorial cohesion.

Three strategic priorities

Ten integrated guidelines1 Ensuring the quality and sustainability of public finances

2 Addressing macroeconomic imbalances

3 Reducing imbalances in the euro area

4 Optimising support for R&D and innovation, strengthening the knowledge triangle and unleashing the potential of the digital economy

5 Improving resource efficiency and reducing greenhouse gases emissions

6 Improving the business and consumer environment, and modernising and developing the industrial base in order to ensure the full functioning of the internal market

7 Increasing labour market participation of women and men, reducing structural unemployment and promoting job quality

8 Developing a skilled workforce responding to labour market needs and promoting lifelong learning

9 Improving the quality and performance of education and training systems at all levels and increasing participation in tertiary or equivalent education

10 Promoting social inclusion and combating poverty

The extension of employment opportunities is an essential aspect of Member States' integrated strategies to prevent and reduce poverty and to promote full participation in society and economy. Appropriate use of the European Social Fund and other EU funds should be made to that end. Efforts should concentrate on ensuring equal opportunities, including through access for all to high quality, affordable, and sustainable services, in particular in the social field. Public services (including online services, in line with guideline 4) play an important role in this respect. Member States should put in place effective anti-discrimination measures. Empowering people and promoting labour market participation for those furthest away from the labour market while preventing in-work poverty will help fight social exclusion. This would require enhancing social protection systems, lifelong learning and comprehensive active inclusion policies to create opportunities at different stages of people's lives and shield them from the risk of exclusion, with special attention to women. Social protection systems, including pensions and access to healthcare, should be modernised and fully deployed to ensure adequate income support and services — thus providing social cohesion — whilst remaining financially sustainable and encouraging participation in society and in the labour market.

Guideline 10

1. Employment - 75% of the 20-64 year-olds to be employed

2. R&D / innovation - 3% of the EU's GDP (public and private combined) to be invested in R&D/innovation

3. Climate change / energy - greenhouse gas emissions 20% (or even 30%, if the conditions

are right) lower than 1990 - 20% of energy from renewables - 20% increase in energy efficiency

4. Education - reducing school drop-out rates below 10% - at least 40% of 30-34–year-olds completing third level education

5. Poverty and social exclusion - at least 20 million fewer people at risk of poverty

EU level targets are to be translated in national targets.

Five headline targets as proposed by the European Commission

Seven Europe 2020 Flagship initiatives and three EU levers for growth

Smart Growth

- Digital Agenda - Innovation

Union- Youth on the

Move

Sustainable Growth

- Resource-efficient Europe

- Industrial Policy for the globalisation era

Inclusive Growth

- Agenda New Skills & Jobs

- European Platform Against Poverty

Seven Flagship Initiatives

Three EU levers for growth

Single Market Relaunch

Trade and external policies

EU financial support

The European Semester of Policy Coordination

After being sidelined in 2005/2006 the Social Protection and Social inclusion process is back in!

- Strategic priority inclusive growth…- Integrated guideline on promoting social inclusion and combating poverty…

- Headline target on poverty and social exclusion..- Flagship Initiative European Platform against

Poverty

But it seems that there may be a price to pay…

The best of both worlds?

Social Protection and Social Inclusion in the new strategy…

- EU level target proposed by the European Commission: Reducing the population at risk of poverty by one fourth by 2020, lifting some 20 million of people out of poverty.

- The at-risk-of poverty rate (headline indicator for measuring poverty in the EU) is defined as the percentage of people with an equivalised disposable income below 60% of the national equivalised median income.

- The indicator reflects the official definition of poverty adopted by the European Council in 1975. The poor are those individuals whose resources are so low as to exclude them from the minimum acceptable way of life in the country where they live.

3. The difficult birth of the poverty and social exclusion target: reconsidering the concept of poverty

The at-risk-of-poverty rate

Commission proposal EU Poverty target

- Spring European Council March 2010:Agrees on the other targets but asks for more work on the poverty target: Further work is needed on appropriate indicators. The European Council will revert to this issue at its June 2010 meeting.

- Member States’ positions:Reflect very diverse political and institutional concerns, including subsidiarity. There is no consensus on using the at-risk-of-poverty rate as the headline indicator for measuring poverty and social exclusion.

- After long en tense discussions two extra indicators were brought into the picture:- severe material deprivation (less relative, more absolute dimension of poverty and social exclusion);- living in a (very) low work intensity household (link to the labour market).

Member States’ reaction to the proposed poverty target

People are considered "severely materially deprived” if they experience at least 4 out of 9 deprivations: being unable to afford to:

1) pay their rent or utility bills; 2) keep their home adequately warm; 3) face unexpected expenses; 4) eat meat, fish, or a protein equivalent every

second day; 5) enjoy a week of holiday away from home once a

year; 6) have a car; 7) have a washing machine; 8) have a colour tv; 9) have a telephone.

The severe material deprivation rate

The severe material deprivation rate

People living in households with very low work intensity are people aged 0-59 living in households where the adults have worked less than 20% of their total work-time potential during the previous twelve months.

Population living in households with very low work intensity

Population living in very low work intensity households

- Promoting social inclusion, in particular through the reduction of poverty, by aiming to lift at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and exclusion.

- The target population is defined as the number of

persons who are at risk-of poverty and exclusion according to three indicators (at-risk-of-poverty, material deprivation, jobless household), leaving Member States free to set their national targest on the basis of the most approriate indicators, taking into account their national circumstances and priorities.

- The targetindicator is in fact the union of the three subindicators: people are at risk of poverty and social exclusion if they are covered by at least one of the three criteria.

Decision European Council June 2010 on the poverty target

Population at risk of poverty and social exclusion in the EU Member States

Population at risk of poverty and social exclusion

Groups at risk of poverty and social exclusion

27.4

100.0

6.1

7.5

8.9

10.5

11.3

21.6

22.0

- 20 40 60 80 100

TOTAL

Non-EU migrants

Single male

Single parent households

Unemployed

Single female

Children

Working

Inactive (not retired, not children)

Share in population at-risk-of poverty or

exclusion

Risk-of-poverty or exclusionSource: EU-SILC

(2009).

Taken from the SPC assessment of the social dimension of the Europe 2020 Strategy

The population at risk of poverty and social exclusion compared: EU27, LV, NL

EU27

Latvia The Netherlands

Source: European Commission

Ranking Member States on the target indicators

arope arop depriv lowwi

Czech Republic 1 1 12 5Netherlands 2 3 2 19Sweden 3 9 3 6Finland 4 10 4 17Austria 5 5 8 15Slovenia 6 4 14 3Luxembourg 7 12 1 7Denmark 8 8 6 21France 9 7 11 18Slovakia 10 2 20 4Germany 11 15 10 23Belgium 12 11 9 25Malta 13 14 7 20United Kingdom 14 18 26Cyprus 15 16 17 1Estonia 16 22 15 2Spain 17 21 5 14Italy 18 20 16 22Portugal 19 19 18 13Ireland 20 13 13 27Greece 21 23 19 8Poland 22 17 21 12Lithuania 23 24 22 11Hungary 24 6 23 24Latvia 25 27 24 9Romania 26 26 25 16Bulgaria 27 25 26 10

Year on Year changes in the population at-risk-of-poverty and social exclusion EU27

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005-2009At-risk-of-poverty and social exclusionSTOCK %abs 123.893 122.675 119.406 115.729 113.752 CHANGErel 26 25 24,5 23,6 23,1CHANGEabs -1.218 -3.269 -3.677 -1.977 -10.141 -8rel -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -11

At-risk-of-povertySTOCKabs 79.070 80.243 81.603 80.671 80.199

rel 16,4 16,5 16,7 16,4 16,3CHANGEabs 1.173 1.360 -932 -472 1.129 1rel 0 0 0 0 0 -1

Low work intensity householdsSTOCKabs 39.112 39.805 36.758 34.256 34.213

rel 10 10 9,7 9 9CHANGEabs 693 -3.047 -2.502 -43 -4.899 -13rel 0 0 -1 0 -1 -10

Severe material deprivationSTOCKabs 51.729 47.908 44.374 41.431 39.802rel 11 10 9,1 8,4 8,1CHANGEabs -3.821 -3.534 -2.943 -1.629 -11.927 -23rel -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -26

Poland2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005-2009

At-risk-of-poverty and social exclusionSTOCK %abs 17.080 14.938 12.958 11.491 10.454 CHANGErel 45,3 39,5 34,4 30,5 27,8CHANGEabs -2.142 -1.980 -1.467 -1.037 -6.626 -39rel -6 -5 -4 -3 -18 -39

At-risk-of-povertySTOCKabs 7.756 7.215 6.540 6.353 6.435

rel 20,5 19,1 17,3 16,9 17,1CHANGEabs -541 -675 -187 82 -1.321 -17rel -1 -2 0 0 -3 -17

Low work intensity householdsSTOCKabs 4.446 3.862 3.104 2.444 2.102

rel 14,2 12,3 10 7,9 6,9

CHANGEabs -584 -758 -660 -342 -2.344 -53rel -2 -2 -2 -1 -7 -51

Severe material deprivationSTOCKabs 12.752 10.445 8.415 6.680 5.625rel 33,8 27,6 22,3 17,7 15CHANGEabs -2.307 -2.030 -1.735 -1.055 -7.127 -56rel -6 -5 -5 -3 -19 -56

Ireland2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005-2009

At-risk-of-poverty and social exclusionSTOCK %abs 1.038 991 1.005 1.050 1.150 CHANGErel 25 23,3 23,1 23,7 25,7CHANGEabs -47 14 45 100 112 10,8rel -1,7 -0,2 0,6 2 0,7 2,8

At-risk-of-povertySTOCKabs 819 787 751 686 670

rel 19,7 18,5 17,2 15,5 15CHANGEabs -32 -36 -65 -16 -149 -18,2rel -1,2 -1,3 -1,7 -0,5 -4,7 -23,9

Low work intensity householdsSTOCKabs 510 459 526 509 739

rel 14,6 12,8 14,2 13,6 19,8

CHANGEabs -51 67 -17 230 229 44,9rel -1,8 1,4 -0,6 6,2 5,2 35,6

Severe material deprivationSTOCKabs 213 205 195 243 274rel 5,1 4,8 4,5 5,5 6,1CHANGEabs -8 -10 48 31 61 28,6rel -0,3 -0,3 1 0,6 1 19,6

Europe 2020 targets set by Member States in their draft NRP’s (source: Annual Growth Survey)

Agreed EU targets Estimate Jan 2011 (draft NRP’s)

Employment rate 75% 72,4%-72,8%

R&D in % of GDP 3% 2,7%-2,8%

Emission reduction -20% -20%

Renewable energy 20% 20%

Energy efficiency 20% Less than 10%

Early school leaving 10% 10,5%

Tertiary education 40% 37,3%

Reduction in poverty 20.000.000 -----

Choice of target indicators (draft NRP’s)

Definition main target Number of MS

Member States

At-risk-of poverty and social exclusion rate (EU target: union of three indicators: arp, smd, lowwihh)

14 AT, BE, CY, CZ, EL, FI, HU, IT, LT, LU, MT, PL, SI, SK

At-risk-of-poverty rate 4 BG (*), EE, LV, RO Children at-risk-of-poverty and children in workless households (to be further defined).

1 UK

Overlap at-risk-of-poverty and severe material deprivation.

1 IE

Long term unemployment rate (link to low work intensity households in EU target)

1 DE

Anchored at-risk-of-poverty rate

1 FR

Definition unclear 2 DK, PT No target 3 ES, NL, SE (*) BG also refers to material deprivation (unclear).

At risk of poverty and social exclusion targets in the draft NRP’s

At risk of poverty targets in the draft NRP’s

4. The Platform against poverty: an effective tool for delivering on the target?‘The Commission will work to transform the OMC on social exclusion (sic!) and social protection into a platform for cooperation, peer-review and exchange of good practice and into an instrument to foster commitment by public and private players…’ (March 2010 Commission Communication on the Europe 2020 strategy)

- A platform?

- A platform against poverty? Why poverty and not social exclusion? What about the social protection strands of the OMC (pensions, health and long term care) and the logic of streamlining?

- The Commission? What about Member States, the EU Social Protection Committee?

- By October / November 2010 it had become clear that Member States and stakeholder networks were not willing to give up the Social OMC. The question was how the Platform and the OMC would relate to each other.

- The Platform Communication was eventually published in December 2010. It is in fact a kind of social agenda (framework for action), bringing together a broad range of initiatives in the social sphere not necessarily piloted by DG EMPL.

- The name of the Platform was broadened to Platform against Poverty and Social Exclusion.

Five areas for action1. Delivering action across the policy spectrum

2. Making EU funds deliver on the social inclusion and social cohesion objectives

3. Developing an evidence-based approach to social innovation and reforms

4. Promoting a partnership approach and the social economy

5. Stepping up policy coordination between the Member States

1. Delivering action across the policy spectrum (1)1.1 Access to employment

– Communication on active inclusion, 2012

1.2 Social protection and access to essential services– White paper on Pensions, 2011– Further develop quality framework on social

services (sectoral approach on homelessness)– Follow-up to communication on health

inequalities

1.3 Education and youth policies– Recommendation on early school leaving, 2011– Recommendation on child poverty, 2012

1. Delivering action across the policy spectrum (2)1.4 Migration and integration of migrants

– New European Agenda on Integration , 2011

1.5 Social inclusion and antidiscrimination– EU framework for national Roma Integration Strategies ,

2011– Follow-up to 2010 consensus conference on

homelessness and housing exclusion

1.6 Sectoral policies– Implementation of energy internal market legislation– Combating the digital divide (implementation of Digital

Agenda)– Legislative initiative on access to basic bank services,

2011

1.7 The external dimension

1.8 Social impact assessment

2. Making EU funds deliver on the social inclusion and social cohesion objectives- 2010 Budget review stresses need to link more

directly structural funds and ESF to Europe 2020 headline targets (including poverty target)

- Commission Proposals for next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (2011) will explore the following options: – Enhancing ESF contribution to achievement of poverty

target– Devoting necessary resources to social inclusion– Reinforcing support to disadvantaged groups – Simplified access and tailored made grant schemes for

local partnerships– Greater synergies and complementarities between EU

funds

3. Developing an evidence-based approach to social innovation and reforms- Build on existing tools (peer reviews, mutual

learning…) to guide structural reforms, promote more effective and efficient interventions

- Major social experimentation initiative, possibly focusing on social assistance (2011): – Pooling resources from various EU funds– Fine-tuning methodology – Development of wider scale experiment – Communication and dissemination

4. Promoting a partnership approach and the social economy- Strengthening existing partnerships and involving

new actors (social partners, local authorities, NGOs…)– Voluntary guidelines on stakeholders’ involvement

and participation of people experiencing poverty (2012)

– Regular dialogue on thematic priorities

- Harnessing the potential of the social economy– Improving legal structures (e.g. foundations)– Social Business Initiative (2011) to support socially

innovative corporate projects (Single Market Act)

5. Stepping up policy coordination between the Member States- Strong social dimension within Europe 2020. Make

full use of the new governance structure– National Reform Programmes to define national

target, strategies, stakeholder involvement

- Commission will work with Member States and stakeholders to adapt working methods of the OMC to governance of Europe 2020 and best combine: – Integration and focus– Continuity and innovation– Simplification and accountability– Coordination and subsidiarity

Report presented by the end of 2011 following discussion with involved actors on the basis of the experience of the first European semester

Institutional innovation?Round Table transformed into a wider Annual Convention of the European Platform:

– Bring together all relevant key actors– Take stock of progress made towards headline

target – Review implementation of activities– Suggestions for future action – Will take place in proximity to 17 October

(International Day for the Eradication of Extreme Poverty).

How does it all add up?- Too early to tell whether the Platform will make a

difference. The communication often lacks clarity.- Broad scope (mainstreaming) is positive. Several

interesting initiatives.- Social innovation per se a good idea but it remains

unclear exactly how this will be a major breakthrough.

- Major disappointment is the lack of concrete initiatives on social impact assessment.

- Instutionally weak.- No concrete proposal on the future of the Social

OMC.- …

5. The European Semester. The experience so far…

- The draft National Reform Programmes (November 2010)

- The Annual Growth Survey (January 2011)

- The Spring European Council conclusions (March 2011)

In conclusion…There may be a social dimension in the Europe 2020 strategy, but there is cause for concern…

Thanks for your attention.