Perspectives on Climate Change: A United States and Tuvalu Case Study Analysis

Sam Anderson 5608595

Professor Tabbasum

DVM 4330

Dec 4, 2014

Within the realm of international relations, most scholars would agree that the nation state actor

no longer behaves in such a narrow sighted Cold War fashion, which would give it the character

of Kenneth Waltz’s Neo-Realism. The international system’s transition from a Westphalian era

to one of liberal global capitalism is a manifestation of the mutual understanding between most

states of the possibility for cooperation and its necessity for achieving growth and development.

Even countries particularly oriented towards securitization and military action like the United

States, are strong promoters of free trade in terms of consumable goods, technology, and ideas.

Neo-Realism can be defined by several fundamental premises emanating from the assumption

that the international system is in a state of anarchy which, in turn, refers to a lack of world

government or authority. Therefore, there is a necessity for states to become self-reliant.

Consequently, it is essential for a state’s survival to promote securitization in terms of military

presence. Furthermore, cooperation between nations can only be established if gains are perfectly

equal relative to the size of each country’s economy, with the exception of restoring the balance

of power in the international system. Therefore, states are motivated by selfish intentions

regardless of the wellbeing of actors beyond their own sovereignty. The final product of this

logical progression is a realm in which competition between actors far outweighs cooperation.

(Shimko, 1992) Thomas Pogge’s Cosmopolitan international relations approach in more recent

decades has been given the additional merit, due to the causal butterfly effect, of a nation’s

actions when amplified by the effects of globalization. Cosmopolitanism articulates the claim

that all human beings are members of a global community regardless of geographic boarders.

Therefore, we are all under a moral obligation to both abstain from harming one another, and to

help those in need. Most importantly, even if we are not particularly responsible for injustices

committed in the past, it is still our duty to rectify them. (Davis, 2012) In the specific case of

global warming, the behavior of one country could have enormous implications on another state

a thousand miles away. For example, when an industrialized nation emits tremendous amounts of

CO2 into the atmosphere, the effects are felt by small rural nations on the other side of the planet

in terms of environmental degradation, food and water security, and economic burdens. It is for

this reason that policy on global warming needs to be guided by a framework that places

significant priority on the global community. The United States in particular is responsible for

producing 5.5 billion megatons of CO2 annually which, in turn, generates 1/6 of the planet’s

annual CO2 emissions. (Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] 2014) However, when faced with the

emerging phenomenon of climate change, the United States reacts in a manner which reflects a

devolution of discourse into Neo-Realism in terms of ensuring state survival, over securitization,

cooperation only through relative gains, and the selfish pursuit of desired goals regardless of the

implications on other parties. Secondly, given the planetary ripple effect of global warming, the

countries that are most effected by the phenomenon are small island nations due to their size,

limited resources, and low land elevation above sea level. Such is the case for the island nation

of Tuvalu that feels the ravages of climate change in terms of devastating storms, pollution, and

rising sea levels. These climate related factors cause a number of negative effects on areas

concerning economics and food security, social and cultural implications, and human rights

abuses. Therefore, the theoretical framework that is best suited for tackling the climate change

problem from an ethical standpoint is Cosmopolitanism as opposed to Neo-Realism.

In the discussion of the implications for a society to transition from fossil fuels to a more

sustainable energy source, Lewis Perelman speculates the emergence of internal social conflict.

In conjunction with the expertise of addiction anthropologist Gregory Bateson, Perelman claims

that the behavioral patterns of developed nations towards the over consumption of fossil fuels

resembles alcohol addiction. The alcoholic can only break free of this lifestyle after hitting rock

bottom. This occurs after a traumatic event, often triggered by the emergence of consciousness

for the individual’s dysfunctional behavior. In this transitional stage of hitting rock bottom, the

subject can be particularly harmful towards himself and others. Similarly, the petroleum

dependent society must also hit rock bottom after being faced with an environmental crises that

poses an immediate threat. (Perelman, 1980) On a transition of this magnitude, the degree of

civil strife and social conflict would be significant. Perelman attempts to make his claim evident

by referring to energy shortage related conflict on both an international and domestic level. In the

international realm “The fuel crises of 1974 and 1979 required a mobilization of National Guard

units to deal with the violence in the trucking industry…” (Perelman, 1980, p403) On a domestic

front, prolonged blackouts in New York during the 1970’s produce looting, rioting, and other

components of a crime wave. However, these examples are relatively peaceful in comparison to

the eruption of violence when the developed world is faced with a rock bottom event that forces

transition. Consequently, maintaining the current level of fossil fuel consumption is essential for

maintaining order and security in an affluent society, such as the United States, which is feeding

an addiction. Therefore, from a Neo-Realist perspective, avoiding transition to sustainable

energy is a means of maintaining the survival of the state in the short term. The United States’

addiction to immense energy consumption, through the exploitation of fossil fuels, has been

obsessively growing over time. For example, average household electricity consumption in the

U.S. has increased 1300% from 1940 to 2001. Ironically, with the ongoing threat of global

warming, the biggest contributor to this elevation in household energy consumption is the

invention and modernisation of air conditioning units. In 2012 air conditioning accounted “… for

20% of US domestic electricity consumption and 13% of the commercial sectors figures which

equal the entire African continent’s overall electrical demand.” (Matthewman, 2013, p.13) This

proportion of consumption is expected to grow by 22% over the next two decades in the

commercial sector. Similar to an individual’s body building a tolerance to a drug, the United

States’ continued degree of air conditioning usage will intensify the warming of the planet

which, in turn, only exacerbates the addiction and need for a stronger variation of the product

that can keep up.

The classical economic model of mercantilism holds that the wealth of nations is primarily

dependent on precious resources such as gold, silver, or oil in the 21st century. Most importantly,

the model assumes that there is a finite amount of wealth in terms of these precious resources

with the goal being to obtain as much as possible -- even through force or by means of

manipulating the policy of foreign nations. Therefore, this has often been achieved through

military occupation of various countries. This line of reasoning is synonymous with the idea of

over securitization in the Neo-Realist approach. Under the Neo-Realist framework, countries

build up their militaries in an endless arms race for two reasons. First, over securitization occurs

for the purpose of invading a foreign land in an attempt to either elevate, or secure a standard of

living by means of gaining control of precious resources, or by neutralizing a potential threat.

With respect to the mercantilism perspective of finite wealth, the realization of the rapid

depletion of fossil fuels has sparked an increase in this type of military aggression not seen since

the era of colonial conquest. Secondly, excessive military expenditure takes place in order to

deter or repel invasions from other international entities. For example, the nuclear arms race on

both sides of the cold war maintained the balance of power which, in turn, acted as deterrence for

a third world war. In the particular case of the United States, this type of activity is especially

prevalent. In 2010, the United States invests 4.35% of its GDP into its global military expansion,

thereby establishing it as the largest military on the planet. (CIA, 2010) According to a pentagon

report, the U.S. has 662 military bases abroad in 38 foreign countries. (Department of Defense

[DoD], 2010) Often these bases are utilized to achieve political and economic goals, including

the capture of precious energy yielding resources. In 2006, the Persian Gulf produced 26% of the

world’s oil supply. Consequently, during the same time period the U.S. responded by building an

additional military bases around the gulf. However, the Persian Gulf War ended in 1991.

(Dufour, 2007) This is one of many examples where U.S. global military expansion tends to

strategically congregate around energy producing resources. The link between a nation’s

scramble to gather depleting resources and climate change comes in the form of a causal

paradox. Rapidly depleting non-renewable fossil fuels is a major determinant of climate change

in the form of CO2. However, the impending consequences of climate change exacerbate the

depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels in terms of maintaining the economic growth necessary

for managing the economic burden of transitioning to renewable energy. Due to the fact that

transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy has a tremendous financial infrastructure cost,

the utilization of remaining fossil fuels are required in order to make the transition possible in a

gradual phase out. When the United States needs to wean its self-off of fossil fuels because

global stockpiles begin to dwindle, a widespread control of what remains ensures the smoothest

economic transition.

In the debate for the utilization of more sustainable energies over fossil fuels, the economic

burden of the transition is a significant variable to be considered. In some of the more extreme

models displayed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the initial transition

cost of “… stabilising the atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 450, 550, and 650 ppm is

estimated to lie in the range 2.5-18 trillion USD, 1-8 trillion USD, and roughly 0.5-2 trillion

USD…” (Azar, 2002, p3) Nevertheless, the gross world product is approximately 84 trillion

USD, while the highest CO2 emitters have the greatest share of GDP. Therefore, it is certainly

within the realm of possibility to reach these goals of atmospheric stabilisation with a global

effort over the next decade. Furthermore, beyond the obvious global benefits of combating the

effects of climate change, Germany has experienced some positive economic effects after having

undergone its preliminary stage of transition from fossil fuels to sustainable sources of energy.

Over the most recent decade, Germany’s renewable energy consumption had increased from 6%

to 25%. By 2020, it is projected that 40% of the country’s energy consumption will be

renewable. Due to the fact that sustainable energy industries are more labour intensive,

unemployment in Germany has decreased, thereby countering the effects of the most recent

recession. (Morris, 2014) This type of development would appear to be an excellent solution for

a major exploiter of fossil fuels, like the United States, in order to fix similar employment

problems. However, as previously established, the effects of climate change (positive or

negative) are felt globally. When Germany reduces its CO2 emissions, the marginal benefits of

slowing the rate of global warming are shared by every nation on the planet. The endeavour of

the United States suffering the financial burden of sustainable energy transition for the purpose

of benefiting the entire planet would not be compatible with the Neo-Realism discourse. For a

guiding theoretical framework that only allows for cooperation by means of equal relative gains,

sustainable energy transition is not a viable option. This perspective is further elucidated by

Frank Grundig’s relative gains model. The model places country n-actor into a mathematically

complex equation similar to the prisoner’s dilemma that tests likeliness of cooperation or

defecting when faced with the Montreal protocol on ozone depletion, the Kyoto protocol on

climate change, and the General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs (GATT). First, the results

indicated that countries were likely to participate in the Montreal protocol by reducing hydro

chlorofluorocarbons (HCFC’s) and methyl bromide (MB), thereby reducing ozone depleting

gases. Cooperation in this protocol occurred primarily for the reason that the cost to implement it

(0.001% of GDP for the case of the U.S.) was too minor to pose any sort of security threat.

(Grundig, 2006) For this Neo-Realist relative gains model, any transaction is considered a

security threat for a country when the transaction is large enough to either significantly burden

the economy of that country, or, if the transaction significantly boosts the economy of a foreign

country. Secondly, participating in GATT would incur large enough costs to be considered a

security threat which, in turn, would often lead to a country’s defection. However, a country is

likely to cooperate with GATT given the greater security threat produced by the potential gains

for other countries that continue to cooperate in a subgroup. Conversely, in the case of the Kyoto

protocol, there are no additional gains felt by any countries that choose to cooperate. As stated

above, the benefits of reducing the rate of climate change are felt globally. Therefore, defecting

from the Kyoto protocol is the best option for a developed country in terms of relative gains.

(Grundig 2006)

The economy of the United States has been predominantly a market oriented economy since its

transition to capitalism in the early 1900’s. During the Cold War this classification was firmly

solidified as the U.S struggled to combat the spread of communist influence with its capitalist

alternative. The underlying framework that forms a market economy highlights the equilibrium

between supply and demand which, in turn, is derived from an individual’s economic

motivations. Essentially, individuals, which are encouraged to selfishly pursue their own

economic goals, are seen to exert an overall regulating effect on the market. To logically act

selfishly in order to achieve a desired outcome is precisely the mode of thinking states engage in

under the Neo-Realism framework. A business competes for market share with the goal of

eliminating their competition by means of establishing a monopoly. Similarly, the nation state

competes militarily in the international realm in order to maintain survival by means of

eliminating all potential security threats. The issue with the prevalence of a self-interested market

economy in the U.S is that it does not allow for the mitigation of climate change. In theory

governments should be able to pressure consumers into decreasing consumption of fossil fuels

through the implementation of positive and negative incentives. However, fossil fuels are

extremely inelastic products, meaning that their demand remains consistent even with a massive

price increase. For example, in the U.S between the 2003 and 2008 oil shortage, the price of oil

increased by 300%. Consequently, consumption of fossil fuels remained relatively unchanged.

(Harrison, 2014) Therefore, even with government intervention, the market economy’s inability

to limit CO2 emissions has raised questions of the free market’s compatibility with climate

change mitigation. In their defense, proponents of the market economy have commonly called on

its strength in being able to produce innovation. Due to the efficiency produced by market

competition, the production of technological innovations is common. However, profit seeking

firms that have the ability to fund research and development only produce new technologies that

are demanded by the market. The problem that emerges is that consumer demand does not satisfy

environmental necessity for mitigating climate change. A product satisfying environmental

demands is secondary to the necessity of the product meeting the desired personal need. An

individual purchases an automobile first and foremost as a mode of transportation. Consumers

may purchase the most environmentally friendly automobile but it is most essential that the car

fill the primary need. (Harrison, 2014) It is because demand for CO2 mitigating products is

secondary that technological innovation will never create products that allow a market economy

to adhere to the Kyoto protocol.

Without a doubt, as Neo-Realism remains the dominant framework for climate related decision

making in the United States and many developed countries, the already devastating effects of

global warming will continue to be exacerbated. As previously articulated above, the first and

most severely affected countries are small island nations (SIN’s) primarily located in the south

pacific region. These countries have minimal resistance to climate change by virtue of being

small islands. Therefore, their high population density, marginal resources, and low land

elevations make them especially susceptible to violent storms, pollution, and rising sea levels.

The recent amplified intensity of violent storms is largely due to the warming of ocean surface

temperature. By means of increased sea level temperature, water vapor retention capacity of the

lower atmosphere grows, thereby producing more rainfall during tropical storms. (Schmidt,

2005) Consequently, the Oceania region, (Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia) has had an average

of 10 billion USD in storm damage annually which is becoming more volatile over time. (Annual

Global Climate and Catastrophe Report, 2012) The increased quantity of ocean pollution from

massive trade vessels crossing the pacific has caused a decline in fish stocks for particular

species. Note that the link between pollution and global warming is overconsumption because

pollution is the bi-product of overproduction. When a particular species of fish is artificially

removed from an ecosystem, the animals that normally consume that fish, will have greater

difficulty in sustaining their own survival. What follows is a chain reaction that upsets the entire

ecosystem, including the human beings at the top of the food chain. Furthermore, through the

process of bioaccumulation, human beings risk absorbing these same toxins through the fish they

eat at a greater level of concentration. Sea levels have risen globally over the last two decades by

3 millimeters annually as opposed to the 2 millimeter average recorded over the last 50 years.

This rise in sea level is with respect to two key factors emanating from global warming. Roughly

half of the increased rise in sea level is caused by ocean warming which, in turn, expands the

water molecules on the oceans surface. The other half of sea level rise is due to glacier melt.

(Schmidt, 2005)

In the specific case of Tuvalu, the 3 criteria stated above that make a SIN susceptible to climate

change are especially significant. Tuvalu is the fourth smallest country in the world at 26 square

kilometres. It also has the third smallest population on the planet with 10800 people. (CIA, 2014)

Most importantly, Tuvalu’s highest land elevation above sea level is only 13 feet. The developed

country’s neglect to manage consumption has left Tuvalu in a dire situation with respect to

climate change. The occurrence of tropical storms can be too volatile to measure on an annual

basis; however, when comparing data across decades there is a notable increase in economic

burden attributed to tropical storms. In Tuvalu during the 1990’s it was reported that on average

over 700 hundred more people were economically affected by the devastation of intense storms

than in the 1980’s. (Prevention Web, 2013) There are two primary ways in which individuals of

Tuvalu felt the economic burden of tropical storms. First, people are forced to pay the financial

cost of rebuilding when homes and infrastructure sustain significant damage. Secondly, intense

storm winds force rising tides inland which contaminate crops with salt water. Consequently, as

one of three major contributors to food insecurity, imports have been steadily increasing for

Tuvalu which has been primarily comprised of cattle and agriculture. From 2005 to 2010,

imports for Tuvalu increased by 3.5 million USD. (CIA, 2010) Tuvalu is surrounded by a

multitude of coral atolls that serve a number of purposes in sustaining the island nation. The

brunt of the negative impacts Tuvalu suffers from pollution is with respect to ocean acidification,

thereby causing coral atoll degradation. These coral atolls serve as protective barriers that

dampen the effects of violent storms. (Schmidt, 2005) Therefore, atoll degradation for Tuvalu

exacerbates the economic burden of tropical storms. Furthermore, the coral atolls are host to an

entire ecosystem of sea life. The locals of Tuvalu are dependent on these coral atolls as a primary

source of food. Therefore, the deterioration of these atolls is the second major contributor to food

insecurity in Tuvalu.

The rising sea is the biggest threat that Tuvalu faces with respect to climate change. As the

expanding ocean begins to consume Tuvalu, the population will be forced deeper into the

country. This forced internal migration will put further strain on the countries limited resources

in terms of abandoning coastal homes and rebuilding elsewhere. Furthermore, as sea level rises,

fresh water tables become contaminated with salt water. This has had a detrimental effect on

agriculture dependent on the ground water tables in Tuvalu. Fresh water contamination is the

third factor contributing to food insecurity in the country. As a result, the locals of Tuvalu have

been forced to change their regular dietary staple from root crops, such as pulaka to more salt

resistant agriculture. (Schmidt, 2005) Consequently, as food choice is considered a significant

piece of one’s culture, the rising oceans have begun an assault on the Tuvaluan way of life.

Unfortunately, internal migration as a means to avoid sea level rise is only a short term band aid.

Eventually the entire country will be consumed by the Pacific Ocean and cease to exist. Before

this occurs, the entire population of Tuvalu will become climate refugees and be forced to

migrate to other countries with or without the permission of these other countries. This will have

a number of social and cultural implications on the Tuvaluan population. For Tuvaluans, their

land is extremely important to them. To be considered a Tuvaluan, ownership of Tuvaluan land

is required by virtue of the country’s own cultural beliefs. When the Tuvaluan population is

forced to migrate, the totality of their culture will begin to disappear as new generations become

accustomed to the new culture they have adopted. The task itself of eco-migration is surrounded

by difficulty, causing severe disruptions to the recipient country that will lead to conflict.

(McGranahan, 2007) Eco-migration can result in conflict by upsetting the existing ethnic balance

or by putting additional unwanted strain on the economy and its resources. For example, after the

1930’s dust bowl engulfed the U.S Great Plains region, eco-migrants were forced into California

where they further exacerbated the demand for jobs during the great depression. Consequently,

conflict erupted through the physical assault of these eco-migrants followed by acts of arson to

their homes. (Reuveny, 2008) If Tuvaluans migrate to other South Pacific islands that are

experiencing similar climate related implications, then it is likely they too will be the catalyst of

conflict with other nations. Despite the CO2 emissions of developed countries being the causal

variable of all the climate related impacts on Tuvalu stated above, these developed countries are

reluctant to allow Tuvaluan citizens into their boarders as climate refugees. The irony of the

situation is that these developed countries acknowledge the declaration of human rights, but do

not extend a helping hand when they have been clearly instrumental in the process of striping the

Tuvaluan people of some of their most fundamental human rights. For example, the right to not

be subjected to arbitrary exile (article 9) and the right to protection from arbitrary deprivation of

property (article 17.2) are two human rights that developed countries are responsible for denying

the Tuvaluans. (Flannery, 2012) Furthermore, assistance is also decreasing in terms of foreign

aid flowing into SIN’s. Between 1995 and 2005 development aid decreased from 2.3 billion

USD annually to 1.7 billion USD annually. (Schmidt, 2005) The tragedy of the SIN like Tuvalu

is that they are the smallest contributors of CO2 and global warming. Consequently, as they are

not industrialized, they do not have the resources necessary to save themselves from the

impending doom of the rising seas by means of constructing adequate seawalls. Therefore, if any

claim of morality is to be established, it is imperative that the U.S and other major CO2 emitting

countries, adopt a perspective of global community so that the correct choices with respect to

climate change can be made in terms of mitigation, adaptation, and adequate assistance for

SIN’s.

The evidence pertaining to the United States’ case study in this research paper has been primarily

speculative and not demonstrative. The argumentative standpoint in this paper is taking a current

reality and constructing a plausible answer around it for the purpose of reflecting the Neo-

Realism discourse. Therefore, there is no certainty I am utilizing the correct variables in my

causal analysis. This approach is not uncommon in different schools of thought when attempting

to grasp an understanding of the behavioral patterns for a species or a set of institutions.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that this is a weaker form of argument. Almost every aspect of

Tuvaluan life, such as economic, social, and cultural areas have been heavily impacted. This

trend will become more significant in the near future as the planet continues to warm. The

negative climate impacts on SIN are entirely a bi-product of the actions of developed countries

that are committed to increasing annual economic growth at all costs. Unfortunately, despite the

unethical consequences of their actions, it is unlikely that major CO2 emitters will adopt a more

Cosmopolitan framework when faced with climate change agenda. The underlying assumptions

of Neo-Realism are too embedded in the core of these societies. The roots of military oriented

society, and the selfish nature of a commercial mode of production, have been spreading for

hundreds of years before Kenneth Waltz theorized of Neo-Realism. Furthermore, these notions

have been reinforced by an overwhelming addiction for energy consumption. The question is,

will major CO2 emitting countries perceive climate change as a greater threat to their survival

than other nation states before the CO2 atmospheric concentration reaches levels so catastrophic

that the planet is unable to sustain 9 billion people.

Chicago Style Author Date System

Reference List

Scholarly

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