periodic analyst information meeting april 7, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
PERIODIC
ANALYST
INFORMATION MEETING
April 7, 2010
Agenda
Economic Developments in Turkey and in the World
Automotive Sector in Turkey and in the World
Doğuş Otomotiv in 2009
Expectations and Objectives
Global Macroeconomic Outlook in the Year 2009
The effects of the crises in all economies
Signs of recovery in the second half of 2009
High unemployment rates
Global comprehensive monetary and financial incentive programs
Increasing public debt in developing countries
Ending of the interest rate reduction in the last quarter
Global Macroeconomic Outlook in the Year 2010 Expectations
Signals of normalization in the world economy
Improvement in global risk perception
Normalization trends in financial markets
Uncertainties in the rate of recovery and sustainability
Overview
Slow and gradual recovery in the economy
Optimism in global financial markets
Gradual increase in oil prices
Improvement in global liquidity conditions and risk perception
Expectations
Macroeconomic Outlook Turkey 2009
Year of Crisis
Contraction in aggregate demand
Decline in inflation
Central Bank interest rate reductions and their effects
Incentive packages and their effects
Relative improvement in current account balances
The crisis was appropriately managed
Strong financial sector
The impact of regulatory reform after the 2000/01 crisis
Low household debt ratio
Macroeconomic Outlook Turkey in 2010 Expectations
Gradual recovery in the economy
Increase in private consumption expenditure
Expectation of poor recovery in external demand (Euro Area)
Moderate upward trend in industrial employment
Reduction of expansionary effects of fiscal policy to continue
The crisis was appropriately managed
Strong financial sector
The impact of regulatory reform after the 2000/01 crisis
Low household debt ratio
(*) Global Insight estimates
Number of employees within the industry worldwide
EMPLOYMENT
50 Million
Production2009
59.2 mn Quantity *
Total Turnover 2008
€1.8 Trillion
Global Automotive Sector
Automotive Industry in the world
Status of our brands in the world
TOTAL WORLD Market Share %10
SALES (UNITS) 2009 2008 CHANGE
VOLKSWAGEN 4.315.960 4.170.108
PASSENGER VEHİCLE 3.954.454 3.667.843 %7,8
LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE 361.506 502.265 %-28,0
PORSCHE 75.238 98.652 %-23,7
AUDI 949.729 1.003.469 %-5,4
BENTLEY 4.616 7.604 %-39,3
LAMBORGHINI 1.515 2.430 %-37,7
BUGATTI 50 71 %-39,3
SEAT 336.683 368.104 %-8,5
SKODA 684.226 674.530 %1,4
SCANIA 43.443 30.527 %4,3
VOLKSWAGEN GROUP TOTAL 6.411.460 6.355.495 %0,9
TOTAL EUROEPAN Market Share %20
Source : VWAG
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
250.000
100.000
550.000
450.000
350.000
200.000
150.000
50.000
0
Wholesale Market PV Luxury Segment LCV HCV
Automotive Sector of Turkey in the Year 2009
Souırce ODD Wholesale Heavy Commercial VehiclesSouırce : Scania Luxury Segment Brands : Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, Alfa Romeo, Land Rover, Jaguar, Porsche, Ferrari, Maserati, Bentley, Lamborghini, Saab
516.395564.416
368.759
307.214
20.029
188.954
20.227
%-3
%9
%20
%36 %-42
December 2008
December 2009
27.253
188.880
Turkey Automotive Sector
Growth potential, has not yet reached saturation in the domestic market
Ease of access to growing regional markets
Banking system
Qualified Human Resources in production, management and service
Strong supply industry
Young population
Doğuş Otomotiv - 2009 Performance
Sales (Quantity)*
DOAŞ Market Share
Second Hand Sales (Quantity)
50.789
%8.9
10.746
55.307
%10.6
13.125
(%8)
(%17)
Net Sales (mn TRY)
Net Profit (mn TRY)
Net Profit Margin
2.129
30.5
%1.4
2.144
(110)
(%5.1)
(%1)
%128
2009 2008 Change Market Performance*
* Wholesale quantity. Skoda,Scania, Krone and Meiller sales are included.** Capital Markets Authority (SPK) data
Financial Performance** 2009 2008 Change
2010 Expectations
Total Market 520 K – 530 K
DOAŞ Sales 52 K – 53K
DOAŞ Market Share 10%
DOD Second Hand Sales 13.000
DOAŞ Turnover(*) 2 – 2,5 billion
TRY(*)Doğuş Otomotiv 2010 not consolidated expectations.
Total 16 launch in 2010!
2009 2010
New PoloTransporter
Golf R, Touareg, TouranAmarok
Q5A5 SportbackA5 Cabriolet
A8, RS 5, A1, R8 Spyder, TT PI
Cayenne DieselPanamera
Panamera, 911 Turbo, 911 GT3 RS, 911 GT3 Cup, 911 Sport Classic
Gallardo LP 550-2 LP 550-2
Exeo
EGR Euro 4R Serisi
Mulsanne
2009 Financial Results I
Net Sales
Gross Profit Gross Profit Margin
Operating Expenses
EBITEBIT Margin
Net Profit Net Profit Margin
2.129
30214,2%
224
783,6%
30,51,4%
(1%)
4%
(16%)
244%
128%
CMB * (mn TRY) 2009 2008 Change
2.144
29113,6%
268
231,1%
(110)(5,1%)
Sales(Unit) 50.789 55.307 (8%)
(*)Capital Markets Board of Turkey
2009 Financial Results II
CMB (mn TRY) 2009 2008 Change
Sales & Marketing Expenses (84,46) (117,93) (28%)
General and Administrative Expenses (121,16) (133,26)(9%)
Financing Expenses (40,36) (121,94) (67%)
Share in result of Associates& JV 4,14 (36,08) 111%
2009 Financial Results III
CMB (mn TRY) 2009 2008 Change
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Accounts Receivable
Stocks
Total Operating Capital
30
154
293
478
74
117
653
845
(59% )
31%
(55%)
(43%)
Financial Obligations
Accounts Payable
431
217
308
746
(40%)
(71%)
Doğuş Otomotiv / Value Chain 2010
Import and DistributionImport and Distribution
Yüce Auto*
Centre of Logistics
Doğuş OtomotivIndependent Authorized Dealers
RetailRetail
DODUsed Vehicle Sales
Used Vehicle SalesUsed Vehicle Sales
AutomotiveFinancing*
Insurance*
Leaseplan*
Insurance*
FinanceFinance
Krone*
Meiller*
ProductProduct
TÜVTURK*
Other InvestmentsOther Investments
Quick Fix to all Brands
Replacement Parts and After Sales Services
Replacement Parts and After Sales Services
* Subsidiaries** Representative Offices
**
International Retail Investment – D-Auto Suisse SA
PERIODIC
ANALYST
April 7, 2010
INFORMATION MEETING