pemanfaatan teknologi panas bumi di...
TRANSCRIPT
11/22/2009
1
PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI PANAS BUMI DI INDONESIA
Disampaikan oleh:I MADE RO SAKYA – Deputi Direktur Teknologi ‐ PT PLN (Persero)
Pada Seminar :Geotermal dan Biofuel sebagai sumber Energi Masa DepanTerbarukan dan Ramah Lingkungan
Universitas Gunadarma – 23 Nopember 2009
KWH PER CAPITA DI BERBAGAI NEGARA
8 176 26
12,924.2215,210.95
15,938.4424,011.23
31,147.29
Si
USAKuw ait
Qatar
Norw egiaIslandia
99
65
21
602 261,275.91
1,914.272,175.03
3,226.55
3,724.985,748.14
5,773.626,621.44
7,328.287,671.30
8,176.26
ViMesir
Thailand
ChinaSuriname
MalaysiaHongkong
InggrisSaudi Arabia
Prancis
BruneiSingapura
1124
101
9174
6745
4436
2723
19
Weighted average : 3,240.3 kWh/capita
8.85148.05
466.03496.32
556.10
602.26
ChadBangladesh
India
IndonesiaPhilipina
Vietnam
2171
7116
0158
1551
51
Sumber: www.nationmaster.com, data 2006
Posisi 158
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2
Malaysia
Brasil
ThailandChina
Amerika Serikat
Jepang
Eropa100
Electrification Ratio vs. GDP
Brasil
Afrika Selatan
India
Philipina
Bolivia
INDONESIA
G
Asia
Rusia
60
80
ec
trif
ica
tio
n R
ati
o [
% ]
Nigeria
Ghana
40
100 1.000 10.000 100.000
El
GDP per Kapita [ US$ ]
Source : IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006
Installed Capacity vs. Population
Amerika Serikat1.000
10.000
MalaysiaINDONESIAThailandArgentina
BrasilIndia
RusiaJepang
China
Philipine
Inggris
VietnamNigeria
Perancis
Korsel
Pakistan
10
100
ns
talle
d C
ap
ac
ity
[G
W]
Kenya
Myanmar
Nigeria
1
10 100 1.000 10.000
In
Population [Million]
Source: IAEA, US DOE
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3
CO2 Emission per Capita
North America r1
14.00
16.00
18.00
Europe r3
China CH
Japan JA
Malaysia MY
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
CO2 emissionper capita [tCO2/cap
ita]
Indonesia ID
India IN0.00
2.00
Bangkok
Phnom Penh
Ban Mabtapud
Ho Chi Minh City
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
THAILAND LAOS Manila
Philipines
South
China
Sea
TOTAL • Install Cap : 29.987 MW• Trans Lines :‐ 500 KV : 4.983 kms‐ 150 KV : 23.106 kms
Generation And Transmission
Pacific Ocean
Khanon
Songkhla
Erawan
Bangkot
LawitJerneh
WESTMALAYSIA
Penang
Kerteh
Kuala Lumpur
NatunaAlpha
Kota KinibaluBRUNEI
Bandara Seri Begawan
BintuluEAST
MALAYSIA
Kuching
Banda Aceh
Lhokseumawe
Medan
Duri
Padang
BintanSINGAPORE
Samarinda
Balikpapan
Bontang
AttakaTunu
BekapaiKALIMANTAN
Manado
Ternate HALMAHERA
Sorong
Duyong
West Natuna
Port Dickson
Port Klang
Mogpu
Dumai
Batam
Guntong
‐ 70 KV : 5.052 kms
Kalimantan :• Gen : 1.000 MW• 150 kV: 1.264 kms• 70 kV: 123 kms JayapurMaluku :
Grissik Palembang
Semarang
AUSTRALIA
Indian Ocean
Jambi
Balikpapan
Banjarmasin
SULAWESI
Ujung Pandang
BURU SERAM
IRIAN JAYA
JakartaJ A V A
SurabayaBangkalan
BALI SUMBAWA
Pagerungan
LOMBOK
FLORES
SUMBATIMOR
I N D O N E S I AMADURA
Jamali :• Gen : 22.302 MW• 500 kV: 4.983 kms• 150 kV: 11.552 kms• 70 kV: 3.657 kms
Sumatera :• Gen : 4.634 MW• 150 kV: 8.521 kms• 70 kV: 310 kms
• 70 kV: 123 kms
Sulawesi :• Gen : 1.130 MW• 150 kV: 1.769 kms• 70 kV: 962 kms
y pa
Merauke
Nusa Tenggara:• Gen : 273 MW
Maluku : • Gen : 197 MW
Papua :• Gen : 170 MW
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Hydro15%
CCPP Nat Gas20%
Geothermal2%
Gas Turbine5% Diesel
12%
KAPASITAS TERPASANG PEMBANGKIT PLN
20%2%
Jawa, Madura & Bali (JAMALI) Region (18.371 MW)
77
CCPP Fuel Oil13%
SPP Nat Gas4%
SPP Fuel Oil5%
SPP Coal23%
Indonesia (25,340 MW)OUTSIDE OF JAMALI (6,969
MW)Sourcee: PLN (2008)
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ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
MW
50
60
70
80
90
100
TWh
INDONESIA
OUTER JAWA BALI
60,000
65,000
70,000
MW
350
400
TWh
Beban puncak
Penjualan Energi
5,000
7,000
9,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
20
30
40
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
MW
150
200
250
300
350
TWhJAWA BALI
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
100
150
200
250
300
Peak Load
Energy Demand
8
10,000
15,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
100
20,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
100
Notes : Asumption : Annual Economic Growth 6.2%/thn, elasticity = 1.56 Projection :
Electricity demand grow at 9.69% annually. Demand in 2008 was 128.9 TWh, and demand projection in 2018 is expected 325.2 TWh, and 381.3 TWh in 2020
Electrification Ratio 95.5%in 2018 , and 100% in 2020
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Additional Capacity 2009 - 2018
70
173
122
6
Micro HEPP
Diesel PP
17,753
3,934
8,494
1,015
3,835
16,487
438
220
3,991
905
Coal STPP
GTPP
CCPP
Geothermal
HEPP
IPP
PLN
35,274 22,168
‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Total
MW
Apakah Geothermal atau Panas Bumi ?
• Geo‐thermal ‐ Geothermal power (from the Greek roots geo meaning earth andGreek roots geo, meaning earth, and thermos, meaning heat) is power extracted from heat stored in the earth. ‐Wikipedia
• … of or relating to the heat in the interior of the earth ‐ wordnetweb.princeton.edu
E f i i th E th’• Energy from reservoirs in the Earth’s surface, such as geysers or ground water that is ‘heat energy’ ‐ www.greenenergy360.org
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GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM MODEL
A‐B = normal temperature gradient (fluid inflow and water pressure increase)B‐C = very high temperature gradient and permeable (reservoir)C‐D = ascending of hot fluid at relatively constant temperatureD = location where hot water begins to boil, as water pressure decrease
11Sumber : Mary H. Dickson and Mario Fanelli, What is Geothermal Energy?
Maluku
DISTRIBUTION OF GEOTHERMAL IN INDONESIA
Kalimantan
Sulawesi
JawaBali Flores
Irian Jaya
Alor
Total Location : 256 SchemesTotal Potential : 27 GWe
Timor
Non Volcanic
Location : 53 SchemesPotential :1. 15 GWe
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BENTUK SUMBER GEOTHERMAL DI PERMUKAAN BUMI
Air/Uap panas Fumarol
Geyser Lumpur Panas
SEULAWAH AGAM 160 MW
SIBAYAK12 MW
SARULA330 MW
Ready for ExploitationProduction StageUnder Tender
GEOTHERMAL DI INDONESIA
KARAHA400 MW
KAMOJANG150 MW
DIENG60 MW
LUMUTBALAI(UNOCAL)
ULUBELU110 MW
LUMUT BALAI110 MW
ULUMBU10 MW
LAHENDONG I, II,III60 MW
BEDUGUL175 MW
UNGARAN50 MW
TAMPOMAS50 MW
JAILOLO75 MW
CISOLOK45 MW
DARAJAT255 MW
WAY. WINDU I110 MW
PATUHA400 MW
MATALOKO2.5 MW
NGEBEL120 MW
WAY. WINDU II2 x 110 MW
Total Installed Capacity January 2009 : 1182 MW
Tangkuban Parahu 55 MW
SALAK375 MW
14
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Fuel mix will be changed as the followings:
• Coal 46% in year 2008 to become 63% in year 2018.
• Fuel oil 25% in year 2008 to become 1% in year 2018
• Geothermal 5% in year 2008 to become 12% in year 2018
INDONESIAN FUEL MIX
y y
• Gas and LNG 17% in year 2008 to become 17% in year 2018
2008
BATUBARA 46%
HYDRO 7%
PUMPED STORAGE
0%
GEOTHERMAL
2018
HYDRO 6%
PUMPED STORAGE
1%
GEOTHERMAL 12%
Coal
HSD 16%
MFO 9%
GAS17%
LNG0%
5%
NUCLEAR0%
HSD 1%
MFO 0%
GAS15%
LNG2%
BATUBARA 63%
NUCLEAR0%
**)Sources: Long‐term Development Plan of PLN
Coal
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PENGEMBANGAN
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Temperatur :1. At 30‐69ºC : thermoculture (Hot Spa, Pemandian
TEKNOLOGI GEOTHERMAL
( p ,Air Panas, Memasak dll)
2. At 70‐140ºC : Pemanas air & ruangan, Pengering
3. At 140‐220ºC: Pengering, Process Heat, binary PP
4. At 220+ºC: Steam turbine, binary PP or process steam
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a) Flashed Plant
TEKNOLOGI GEOTHERMAL
b) Binary Plant
c) Combined Cycle PP
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Proses Pemanfaatan Panasbumi
CYCLONE ELECTRICAL
Geothermal Power Plant Cycle Resource development
Steam gathering
t (SAGS)U
P T
O 4
KM
CYCLONE SEPARATOR
CONDENSER
PSI
v v v v v v
V V V V V V
GENERATOR
PUMP
STEAMTURBINE COOLING
TOWER
PUMP
CYCLONESCRUBBERSTEAM
STEAM
TURBINE STEAM EXHAUST
CONDENSATE
COLD CONDENSATE
system (SAGS) Power
generation Facilities
FLASHING TOSTEAM-BRINE MIXTUREIN BOREHOLE
RESERVOIR BRINEBRINEINJECTIONWELL
CONDENSATEINJECTION
WELL
GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT
www.eas.asu.edu
Example : 1. Kawerau Geothermal PP – New Zealand2. Ngawha Geothermal PP – New Zealand3. Raser’s Geothermal PP – Utah ‐ USA 20
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Combine Cycle OrmatARSEP
E 2009
Example : Leyte – Philippine
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Teknologi1. Proven Technology2. Tidak tegantung dengan musim
KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT
2. Tidak tegantung dengan musim3. Berperan sebagai base load ( CF > 90% ).4. Dapat dikembangkan secara bertahap ( 250 kW –
110 MW )
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Ekonomi1. Biaya O & M rendah.2. Biaya bahan bakar tidak ada
KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT
3. Meningkatkan tingkat sekuriti energi nasional4. Menggunakan energi setempat5. Menggerakkan perekonomian setempat
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Lingkungan1. Emisi sangat rendah dibandingkan dengan
pembengkit berbahan bakar fosil
KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT
pembengkit berbahan bakar fosil.2. Menggunakan tanah yang tidak luas dibandingkan
dengan pembangkit lain.
24
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13
KEBUTUHAN LAHAN
101214
sands
Land Usage
≥
02468
10
Thous
Geothermal Flash Plant
Geothermal Binary Plant
Geothermal Flash Plant
Coal PlantNuclear Plant
Hydroelectric Plant
Solar Thermal Plant
Solar PV Plant
Wind Farm
Land Usage (m2/GWh) 160 170 290 5,700 1,200 250,000 3,200 7,500 1,305
Land Usage (m2/MW) 1,260 1,415 2,290 400,003 10,000 1,200,000 28,000 66,000 3,140
(from Geothermal Power Plant, Ronald DiPippo, Second edition)
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LINGKUNGAN
1000
CO2 (kg/MWh)(from Geothermal Power Plant, Ronald DiPippo, Second edition)
Geothermal PP emits CO2 at < 10 % to
300
400
500
600
700
800
900 that of CO2 emitted by other PP Types
0
100
200
Coal‐Fired Steam Plant
Oil‐Fired Steam Plant
Gas Turbine
Flash‐steam Geo PP
The Geysers dry‐steam Geo PP
Closed loop binary Geo PP
EPA average, all US Plants
CO2 (kg/MWh) 994 758 550 27.2 40.3 0 631.626
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Resiko dan Tahapan Pengembangan Panasbumi
Pre‐feasibility Exploration Feasibility
(Geology, surface geochemistry, engineering & environ. Impact pipeline routes, weather &
Discharge testing Studies & tests Reserves
Confirmation
Exploration drilling (resource identification)
Resiko tertinggi berada di hulu
Catatan hasil Pemboran ,
hydrology, preparation of exploration budget
Confirmation Environmental
impact assessment Feasibility study of
power plant, etc
Construction DesignCommissioning & production
Environmental impact report
Preliminary design Bid d
Construction & plan installation
Contract management supervis
Development drilling (resource delineation & quantification)
Pemboran Indonesia: rata-rata < 10 Mwe per sumur (SKM, 2007)
Lama Pengembangan sampai operasi 5-7 tahun
Bid document preparation
Contract award (plant & civil)
Pipeline routing & design
Production & injection wells
Final design
management, supervision of construction, inspection
Field management & long term testing
Fase dengan resiko tertinggi
Investasi Panasbumi (greenfield dev.)
1. Lead time yang panjang;• Pre Feasibility Study : 1 tahun• Exploration : 2 – 3 tahun• Development / Construction : 2 – 3 tahun
Total lead time : 5 7 tahunTotal lead time : 5 – 7 tahun
2. Risks• Resources (Exploration & Exploitation) Risks• Construction Risk• Perceived Buyer (PLN) Risk• Country Risk.
3. IRR = Riskless Rate + Risk Premium(government bond)
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Estimasi Investasi Panasbumi
Jenis BiayaTotal Biaya(dalam jutaUSD/MW)
G&G Studies, Exploration & 1 1 1 2
Resource characteristics
Site specifics Market parameters
G&G Studies, Exploration & Development Drilling
1,1 – 1,2
Pipelines – Steam Above Ground System (SAGS)
0.4
Power Plant , inc. Engineering& Project Management
1,3 – 1,4
Total Biaya Pengembangan 2 8 – 3 0
Diperlukan investasi lebih dari USD 13 Milyar untuk membangun 4,733 MW PLTP
Total Biaya Pengembangan 2,8 3,0
Geothermal ProjectGeothermal ProjectGeothermal ProjectGeothermal Project
Resource FeasibilityResource FeasibilityStudy ApprovedStudy Approved
Submit Notice of Submit Notice of Intention To DevelopIntention To Develop
Commercial Commercial OperationsOperations
EPC BidsEPC Bids
Concession acquisition Concession acquisition and initial explorationand initial exploration
EPC BidsEPC BidsFinancingFinancingPlansPlans
ProjectProjectConstructionConstruction
Finalizing CostsFinalizing Costs•• Confirm ResourceConfirm Resource•• Financing PlansFinancing Plans
Complete ConstructionComplete Construction•• Close Financing Close Financing On Final Phase On Final Phase ‐‐ PGF PGF
Commercial Commercial SignSign
~ 2 Yrs~ 2 Yrs
Close Close
At least 3 YrsAt least 3 Yrs
Resource Resource DevelopmentDevelopment
Construction StartsConstruction Starts•• RoadsRoads•• Land PurchaseLand Purchase•• Drill WellsDrill Wells
CommercialCommercialOperationsOperations
EPC BidsEPC BidsFinancingFinancingPlansPlans
ProjectProjectConstructionConstruction
Coal/Gas Power Coal/Gas Power ProjectProject
Construction StartsConstruction Starts
Sign Sign PPAPPA
CloseCloseFinancingFinancing
Conditions PrecedentConditions Precedent
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GOVERNMENT
RISK DISTRIBUTION of GEOTHERMAL PROJECT
DEVELOPER LENDERPROJECT
OFF TAKER(PLN)
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INVESTOR OFF TAKER GOVERNMENT LENDER
‐ Reservoir Capacity ‐ Pricing Energy ‐ Regulation ‐ Pricing Energy
MAJOR RISK COMPONENTS
‐ Drilling Success Ratio ‐ AF Power Plant ‐ Pricing Energy ‐ Capital Cost
‐Well Capacity ‐ CF Power Plant ‐ Investment Security ‐ Energy Production
‐Well Decline ‐ System Capacity ‐ Force majeure ‐ off taker Capability
‐ Steam Quality ‐ Financing ‐ COD ‐ Gov. Guarantee
‐ AF Power Plant ‐ Quality Supply ‐ Environmental
‐ CF Power Plant ‐ Force Majeure ‐ Equipment Quality
‐ Capital Cost ‐ Fluctuation USD ‐ Force MajeureCapital Cost Fluctuation USExchange Rate
Force Majeure
‐ Financing ‐ COD ‐ COD
‐ Pricing Energy
‐ Force Majeure
‐ COD
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KESIMPULAN
• Potensi Geothermal di Indonesia sangat besar• Teknologi geothermal sudah proven dan ramah• Teknologi geothermal sudah proven dan ramahlingkungan
• Diperlukan lead times yang panjang serta initial cost yang tinngi dalam pengembangangeothermal
• Pemanfaatan Geothermal di Indonesia l k k j t tmemerlukan kerjasama yang erat antara
pengembang, pemakai, Pemerintah dan Lender.