peak water and peak energy: implications for security
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Dr Peter H. Gleick, President and Co-founder, Pacific Institute, USA - Peak water and peak energy: implications for securityTRANSCRIPT
Peak Water and Peak Energy: Implica5ons for Security
Oxford University
Interna5onal Water Security Conference Dr. Peter H. Gleick
April 2012
Global Popula*on
Global CO2 Concentra*on
U.S. Oil Produc*on
Atlan*c Cod 1950-‐2008
Market Penetra*on of Telephones
Cumula*ve Dam Storage Capacity
Renewable or Non-‐Renewable?
• Non-‐renewable resources are “stock” limited. • Renewable resources are “flow” limited.
• Water and energy exhibit characteris5cs of both: but while most of our water use is renewable, most energy use is non-‐renewable.
Peak Renewable Water
Total Renewable Supply
But, how much can we actually use?? How much should we actually use?
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS
Total Colorado River Flow at the Delta
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010
Global Reservoir Capacity 1900 to Present
Source: GRanD Database v1.1, 2011
Peak Water?
Continued exponential growth would have required new supply of approx. 850 cubic kilometers of water per year
Peak “Non-‐Renewable” Water
Such as fossil groundwater (Central Valley, Ogallala, Libya, North China Plains, central India…)
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS
S. Buapeng 2009
1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
0 0
.4 0
.8 1
.2 1
.6 2
2.4
2.8
Bangkok Groundwater Pumping (Mm3/day)
Source: USGS, Fischer et al. Open-File Report 99-197
Non-Renewable Groundwater Use: Ogallala Aquifer, US
Peak “Ecological” Water Overall Econ
omic and
Ecological V
alue
Amount of Water Appropriated by Humans
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS
Some Thoughts about Energy and Water
• Water use and energy use are closely linked. – Energy produc5on uses and pollutes water. – Water use requires significant energy.
• Limits to each are beginning to affect the other; Yet energy and water issues are rarely integrated in policy.
• Considering them together offers substan5al economic and environmental benefits.
• The reality of climate change affects policies in both areas.
Peak Water, Security, and Conflict
• Defini5ons of “security” vary, and are expanding. • There is a long history of conflicts over fresh water.
• Such conflicts take many forms (as a goal, weapon, target, development disputes, terrorism).
• The risks of water-‐related disputes are growing, including over “peak water” constraints of all kinds.
• These water-‐related factors will have both direct and indirect impacts on security and conflict.
http://www.worldwater.org
Source: Gleick 2012, Water Conflict Chronology
The Destruction of the New York Water Works during the Revolutionary War, 1776
From the collection of Peter Gleick
New Concerns at the Intersec5on of Water/Energy/Security?
• Water and economic development: poverty, water alloca5ons, and rights.
• Subna5onal, state-‐to-‐state, ethnic, local disputes are all increasingly common.
• Water-‐related acts of terrorism. • Direct and indirect impacts of climate change.
So, What Does Peak Water Mean?
• We’ll never “run out” of water overall. It is (mostly) renewable.
• We will run up against renewable “flow” limits that are a combina5on of natural and economic constraints.
• Where water is “non-‐renewable” we will run into stock constraints.
• We are increasingly hieng (or exceeding) peak “ecological” water limits.
• Hieng these limits has social, economic, and poli5cal implica5ons.
Future Research Needs and Priori5es
• Where are peak water limits are being reached?
• Quan5fy peak “non-‐renewable” limits (e.g., measuring groundwater use and recharge).
• Quan5fy ecological requirements and limits. • Evaluate implica5ons of peak limits (Physical? Economic? Social? Poli5cal? In what mixes?).
• Evaluate (and reduce the risks of) broad security implica5ons: both human security and interna5onal security.
