implications for food security and livelihoods
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Implications for food security and livelihoods. Based on…. Where are we in the programme ?. Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Ecosystems supporting fish. Fish stocks/aquaculture species. Implications for food security and livelihoods. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Implications for food security and livelihoods
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Based on…..
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Where are we in the programme?Projected changes to
atmospheric and oceanic conditions
Ecosystems supporting fish
Fish stocks/aquaculture species
Implications for food security and livelihoods
Adaptations and policies to reduce threats and capitalise on
opportunities
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Outline
•Factors affecting availability of fish for food• Reef area, population growth, climate change
•Implications for food security• Relative importance of population growth and
climate change
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Plans to use fish for food security
• Provide 35 kg of fish per person per year
• Maintain traditional fish consumption where it is >35 kg
Samoa • >60 kg of fish per person
per year
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Where does most fish come from?
• Coastal fisheries / coral reefs, mangroves and sea grasses
Photos: Eric Clua, Gary Bell, Christophe Launay
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The problem!
• Sustainable catches from most reefs are unknown
Solution: use median estimate of 3 tonnes per km2 per year
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Reef around Samoa
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Coral reef area in Samoa
Depth (m)Reef area
(km2)Reef fish
production (t)Estimated
catch
40 465 ~1400 n/a
100 2000* 6000 6075**
*Includes much rough ground with no living coral** Includes reef fish and invertebrates, not nearshore pelagic fish
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Factors affecting availability of fish
Year Population
2010 183,000
2035 202,000
2050 210,000
2100 240,000
Source: SPC Statistics for Development Programme
• Population growth
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Effects of population growth on availability of fish per person
30 2925
3
0
10
20
30
40
50 Samoa
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
5 6 10
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2035 (-2 to -5%)
2050 (-20%) 2100 (-20 to -50%)
Today
Effects of climate change
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Additional effects of climate change
Effects of population growth Additional effects of climate change
5 6 6 10
2525 22
30 2929 25 25
20
1013
0
10
20
30
40
50 Samoa
35 kg
Year
2035 2050 2100
2525 22
5 6 6 10
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How best to fill the gap?
Coastal fisheries Pond aquaculture Tuna
Fish needed for food security tonnes (x1000)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
Tuna
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Implications for livelihoods