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  • Pathway toward a sustainable 2050 World Business Council for … · 2012-05-12 · Pathway toward a sustainable 2050 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s Early in this decade Approx. 12% of global
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VISION 2050: THE NEW AGENDA FOR BUSINESS Under the WBCSD’s Vision 2050 Project, twenty-nine WBCSD member companies developed a vision of a world well on the way to sustainability by 2050 and the pathways leading to that world. This mural is a basis for visualizing the possible pathways. The mural is meant to provide a tool for strategic planning, prioritizing, and monitoring progress to help countries, businesses, NGOs, international organizations and individuals assess the degree to which we are on track to accomplishing the vision. This pathways mural represents just one part of the WBCSD Vision 2050 project. After creating a rough idea of what a sustainable future might look like (see our mural containing the 22 elements of the Vision for 2050), we asked the question: In each of the decades preceding 2050 what would have to be in place for us plausibly to arrive at a sustainable 2050? This process is often called "backcasting." The results are presented here in the form of pathways. Perhaps the most significant components of the mural are (1) the yellow boxes , which together present a statement of the major things that need to happen - that must happen - for the world to reach 2050 in a sustainable way; and (2) the measures of success at the far right side of the mural, which create a kind of prototype for a global dashboard. The mural presents a large number of interdependent, complex global issues and options. It gives a sense of possible eventualities, not precise predictions. Please note that all future dates and numbers are approximations. 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 204 0 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 203 0 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 202 0 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 204 0 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 203 0 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 202 0 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 MacroVU® Analytics Analysis, synthesis, and mural by Robert E. Horn, Stanford University [email protected] 415-775-7377 World Business Council for Sustainable Development Pathway toward a sustainable 2050 2040s 2030s 2020s 2010s Early in this decade Approx. 12% of global power generation assets use CCS assuming the R&D work and that carbon has an emissions price Maybe – But don't count on it Nuclear Fusion Status: Recent estimates suggest this could be implemented in 2035 - 2045 Maybe–But don't count on it High- altitude Wind Status(2010): Helium filled, spinning generators floating about 3x as high as current wind turbines. Eight are flying now. More and more types are planned for tests. Potentially rapid gains in second generation biofuels 4th generation nuclear plants Costs are high and learning cycles slow (almost 10 years per generation) + + + - - - Algae-based biofuels begin to be widely used Possibly one-third of all coal-fired power plants close before normal end of life cycle because they are not suitable for carbon sequestration Probably – But don't count on a whole lot of it Wave Power Status (2010): Likely to help, but unlikely to be a major source of electricity, because of not enough good sites. Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2020-2030 (World wide) Units Coal-fired with CCS Gas-fired with CCS Nuclear Hydro Biomass plants Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Geothermal Solar Photovoltaic Concentrated Solar 500 mw CCS plants 500 mw CCS plants 1000 mw nuclear plants 5000 mw dams 50 mw biomass plants 4 mw wind turbines 4 mw wind turbines 100 mw geothermal units 50 mw installations 250 mw installations 2030-2040 450 300 400 30 1350 160000 40000 1500 7500 900 Approx. Milestones for staying below 2 o C (average global temperature) Somewhere in this decade or possibly before Solar much cheaper than fossile fuels Big risk Failure of carbon capture sequestration (CCS_) Somewhere in this decade or possibly before Wind energy begins to be economically competitive with coal New energy mix in place Rapid scale-up of renewables Renewables achieve at least cost parity with more traditional forms of generation Price of carbon in place, preferably on a global basis. Tax incentives / subsidies drive renewables expansion. Proven commercial viability of CCS. Required to be on track for 2050 Energy R&D increases rapidly Required to be on track for 2050 Major collection of international agreements on climate and energy Not necessarily treaties, but perhaps bilateral and multilateral agreements ENERGY AND POWER - Meet increasing demand while stabilizing global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius – equivalent to approx. 450 ppm CO2 in atmosphere Required to be on track for 2050 Carbon sequestration funded for rapid deployment Roughly 10 demonstration Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) plants in operation. CCS technology is determined to work well International R&D and prototype drilling projects to demonstrate geothermal. Research determines geothermal does not cause significant earthquakes Maybe – But don't count on it Space-Based Solar Status(2010): Giant solar collectors in geosynchronous orbit would collect sunlight and shoot it to earth on microwave beams. Japan has current research project) Maybe as late as this decade Nanotech Solar Status (2010): New materials collect a wider range of wavelengths and might bring costs of solar down. Actually by this time we may be unable to tell the difference between "nano" and simply "any advance in materials." Carbon Prices, R&D and International patent protection encouraging deployment of concentrated solar power combined heat and power, onshore wind Solution to storage of radioactive waste found DC and super conducting transmission lines deployed to harness long distance renewables. Smart grids used to manage intermittent renewable resources Countries, cities, businesses decide to reduce emissions on their own or because costs of or unavailability of fossil fuels and because International agreements are delayed Big risk Insufficient growing areas available for biofuels Big risk Major ocean acidification Big risk Temperature rise above 2 degrees Celsius avoided Big risk Peak oil happens before renewables fully deployed Big risk Failure of global energy planning leading to long- term lock-in of coal power plants Required to be on track for 2050 Distorting energy subsidies phased out and increased international cooperation in deploying low-carbon technology occurs - Renewables 35-45% - Nuclear 20-25% - CCS 20-35% - Others --- approx Uncertain timing - perhaps during this decade Massive transition - shocks to conventional power infrastructure investment. Solar & wind costs dive below coal, oil & gas. Coal/nuclear infrastructure project financing collapses Policies to increase efficiency and conservation are leading to lowered unit consumption Capacity building ensures that foreign investment is enhanced by credible institutional frameworks and stable political and legal systems Global emissions of greenhouse gases peak ! ! New forms of public-private partnerships established to quickly screen, fund, develop, and demonstrate promising technologies BUILDINGS - Energy efficient and comfortable living and working spaces Real-time adaptive management by computers run many urban systems Global standards continue to tighten for energy efficiency (buildings and appliances) OECD countries introduce tough efficiency regulations for existing buildings, appliances and vehicles. Critical success element is wide public acceptance Tough energy efficiency regulations begin Strict enforcement Mandatory standards Global standards All appliances manufactured are energy- efficient Urban planning standards are changing the density and mobility patterns of new neighborhoods and cities Energy-saving behaviors as a cultural norm becoming common across many countries Countries completing the manditory energy labeling of all appliances Tax incentives and subsidies beginning to enable energy- efficiency investments with longer payback periods Building energy efficiency audits are becoming the norm in most OECD countries Retrofitting of city infrastructure becoming global mega-industry as more people move to urban centers Big risk Failure to fix dozens of kinds of market failures in buildings Innovation and deployment of building and appliance technologies continues. Energy efficiency incentivized and developed Efficiency included in addition to building Fire, Safety and Health regulations and codes Programmes launched to develop requisite skills and capacity in the construction sector, to monitor and record the implementation of energy efficiency, and to increase awareness among school children Mandatory global standards for energy efficiency (buildings, appliances and standby). This includes limiting standby to 1w and specifically listing efficiency requirements in building codes. Significant proportions of building heat and electricity needs being generated on site Energy efficiency meters beginning to be widespread among all buildings. The information provided allows for increased energy conservation and dynamic pricing Integrated building design practices involving architects, developers, contractors etc. in writing project specifications are the norm Government purchase coordinated around the world produce new markets for efficient products and government sponsored retrofitting programmes in public buildings around the world expedite new markets for efficient products Approx. 40% of emissions are building related 40% Buildings All other sources Urbanization makes it more efficient to deliver infrastructure and human development improvements. Better and more holistic planning of cities and economies of scale allow for greater efficiency in the allocation of capital and labor, as well as the provision of utilities and services to a larger number of people MATERIALS - Closed-loop society Circular, closed loop designs drive industry. The efficiency of material use, including the control of waste and pollution, is many times greater than at the turn of the century 4x 10x 3x Biofuels and biochemicals begin to replace fossil fuels and fossil derived chemicals for the production of plastics Nano-technology beginning to revolutionize manufacturing + + + - - - Methods of organizing mega-projects such as building completely new cities is well-understood Methods of innovation well-known and wide- spread Transformation begins of longer distance supply chains to more local, resilient ones. Validation of storage applications of Industrial- application Carbon Capture and Storage for industrial applications is complete Transportation infrastructure for Industrial- application Carbon Capture and Storage is being widely developed The majority of CO2- intensive industrial facilities use Carbon Capture and Storage technology; CCS also used for biofuels production All waste is inventoried in such a way that its recycling is possible at a future date Recycling technologies are 10x more efficient than 2010 10x Skill set in energy management, process and product innovation, services, long term planning, logistics optimization, environmental science and human needs assessment rapidly expands Major design improvements especially in advanced material & product development - Longer life - Short life high recycle - Up cycling - Design disassembly Continuous improvement over several decades: - Difficult to recycle, harmful or scarce materials are progressively be replaced or ultimately be banned. - Technology development continues to improve recycling yields. Goods are increasingly designed and engineered to be reused and recycled New hybrid / composite material technologies scaled up A complete range of new products and services offered, based on high longevity, low embodied water, and low energy and material content High CO2 emitting plants begin to be closed Factor 10 per capita consumption of non- renewable resources does not exceed 5-6 tons per year 10x Technologies are available to economically mine existing landfills Payment for closing quarries and for reforestation, water reservoirs, recreation areas now firmly in place RESEVOIR No Dumping No Swimmig Price Net zero emission plants are the norm for new plants Net Zero World business continues to fine tune policies on eliminating toxic substances and improving design and recycling mandates Solution to radioactive waste is accepted and practiced Waste and recycling are fully integrated in the business model Bioreactors begin to capture part of CO2 emissions from atmosphere. Several metals / minerals are approaching primary mining limits. Without recycling, shortages will start to dictate the options for use of materials Manufacturing emits more than one-third of all CO2 Iron, steel & cement account for half of these emissions Chemicals and petrochemicals also make significant contributions Global business begins to reduce product sizes, avoid waste in packaging & increase product lifetime Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Global business and governments agree on a set of indicators & rules for accounting about resources, energy and materials. These rules establish the true cost of primary and secondary materials. Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 New landfill legislation begins to set standards for recycling and reuse Faster, leaner production processes becoming the norm. Business model innovation by reviewing value chains, redesigning products and services, and re- engineering processes Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Industrial-application Carbon Capture and Storage - Develop legal and regulatory frameworks, to include liability clarity for CO2 - R&D to reduce capture costs, determine storage integrity, monitoring - Greater public awareness of benefits and cost Required on track for a sustainable 2050 Clear, predictable, long-term economic incentives for CO2 reduction and clear carbon costs empower business to undertake the huge investments required for energy and materials turnaround Accounting standards begin Major CO2 reduction on the way Advanced materials design common Closed loop manufacturing common Co-combustion of renewables and waste increased to 50 % 50% Big risk Rapid increase in health problems from toxic chemicals Big risk Continuing to build tightly coupled systems of poor resiliency Non-recyclable substances are molecularly marked so producers can be identified if they leak from industrial cycles charged with recovery Countries and individual provinces and states beginning to ban many more toxic substances 30% All other sources Manufacturing CO2 emissions High labor force participation of youth and female employment. More diverse patterns of working life. Enabling technologies, innovative means of working, ethos of lifelong learning and refreshing skills contribute to and boost labor productivity New understanding of wealth and poverty. Nations still pursue their competitive advantages, but there is a deep understanding that poverty anywhere undermines prosperity everywhere long term perspective intergenerational solidarity new business models Significant changes during this decade - maybe earlier Widespread internalization of cost of CO2 emissions has major effects on decisions CO2 $ internal- ized Maybe during this decade - but likely in the long run Huge increase in national sovereign investment funds focuses on long term sustainable investment New measures of economic progress transform economic structure. Measurements of progress take into account social and environmental considerations Genuine Progress Indicator Creative society in which a well educated and skilled work force rapidly absorbs best practices and new technologies, leading to significant improvements in labor productivity and efficiency. Hyper-innovative economy (that is creative, transparent and accountable) enables high levels of labor productivity in a diversity of sectors and services. Open and collaborative organizations (networks, organizations, people and societies) are central GLOBAL ECONOMY, FINANCE, & BUSINESS MODELS - Transform contemporary industrial capitalism into sustainable capitalism Job creation in developing countries beginning to increase employment prospects. Economic growth boosts tax revenues, allowing for a certain level of safety/welfare nets, e.g. old-age financial assistance A variety of economic models, enterprise, capital and forms of property exist. New intergenerational solidarity has given companies and the economy a much longer term perspective, and new ways of judging profit, loss, and shareholder value 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Bigger populations and new technologies begin to enable high levels of labor productivity. Create a focus on more open and fluid concept of work – part-time, flexitime, teleworking, co- working, and leave of absence Internalize carbon costs Global accounting standards Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Global convergence to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) provides coordinated model of business action Social value in business Hyper-innovative economy Big risk Major global economic depression Big risk Decrease in financial stability Big risk Low investment in transition to renewable energy before low cost carbon energy exhausted Big risk Increasing gap between wealthy and poor Valuation, investment and accounting criteria are reformulated as businesses and markets adapt to new sets of incentives that couple traditional profitability with the creation of long- term value Innovative financing mechanisms start to emerge that focus on longer-term sustainable investments Financial products are certified before being put on the market, verifying their ability to contribute positively to the economy, society and environment, particularly in reallocating risks New measures of progress being developed that are more reflective of true progress than traditional GDP Microlending and other innovative financing tools beginning to make major impact Resource-rich, but sometimes income-poor, countries are increasingly recognized as critical elements of the equation for stabilizing the environment. The biocapacity in these countries attracts funds from global sources to build skills, infrastructure and efficiency Business responds to higher costs resulting from internalization of externalities with new efficiencies in materials sourcing, product design, production, marketing and distribution Bases of profit and loss, progress, and value creation are redefined to consider longer-term environmental impacts and personal and social wellbeing. Prices reflect all externalities (costs and benefits). Big risk Failure to adopt a global carbon price regime Every MBA incorporates sustainable management Every engineering course has sustainable component Sustain- ability MBA Sustainable Engineering Education New Metrics Micro- lending Long term investments Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 New trade regimes begin to benefit many, rich and poor Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Technology transfer for energy and some other areas such as food is successfully implemented. Collaboration between government leaders from major economies in both North and South lead to creation of a global venture capital fund to commercialize clean energy and food technologies. The fund licenses intellectual property and sells technology to countries on terms that vary according to their average per capita GDP. This is supported by concessional terms for developing countries (Or some other approach that is efficient and effective and meets same goals) IP FUND $ £ Massive demand for investments into global infrastructure above USD 10 trillion between 2008 and 2015 (e.g. China’s high speed rail; India’s power generation; US interstate system; refurbishment of water plants in EU) Possibly by 2040 Almost universal values of respect, tolerance, justice and fairness required by the sustainable world; have grown to include all the planet’s people, ensuring that all have equity of opportunity Implementing new global strategies, rules & standards are mostly left to national and sub- national level. Take diverse cultural forms. Multi-sector and multi-actor task- forces deploy recommendations. Global summits are informed by Global Issues Networks (with representatives of national governments, international civil society, international institutions and corporations with global expertise) that proactively identify potential issues and suggest resolution (or functionally equivalent organizations) Global Issues Networks Quite likely in this decade Ten to 50 million NGOs are involved in most public decisions NGO NGO NGO NGO NGO NGO NGO NGO N G O NGO Quite possibly in this decade "The Reponsibility to Protect" used for first time by the African Union to protect citizens in two countries in Central Africa from famine caused by global warming International governance begins to shift from treaties to cooperative issue networks and more frequent trust-building summits and mini-summits Representatives from governments, NGOs, UN and business collaborate on issues Global Dashboard established to guide global decision making Quite likely combination of technology and global citizen involvement Widespread use of millions of eyes and the internet begin to monitor compliance with climate & sustainability agreements Some sort of "Coordinating Global Issues Forum" might gradually come into being linked to issue Probably necessary to be "on track" for 2050 IMF and World Bank redesign themselves to increase the decision-making authority of emerging economies. Emerging economies could be given more votes provided they are willing to be subjected to more scrutiny. Additionally, actions must be taken to increase the IMF's and World Bank's capital bases to enable them to respond more effectively to needs of emerging economies. GOVERNANCE - Enable transformations in global economy and planetary sustainability by 2050 Global Issues Networks Growing awareness of need to cooperate Global coordination spreads Widespread implementation of solutions Coordination for a safer planet Big risk International terrorism networks increase Big risk Massive rise of international drug and crime organizations Big risk Decline in effectiveness of the United Nations Big risk Major group of early warning climate shocks (e.g."Katrinas") happen in the same year Big risk Proliferation of nuclear weapons Big risk Nuclear waste disposal not solved Big risk Multiple, overlapping state failures in Africa Big risk Proliferation of biological weapons Big risk Militarization of Space Big risk Governments fail to collaborate in increasingly fragmented world Big risk Regional instability and wars PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT - Well on the way to meeting basic needs of all people by 2050 Advertising messages shift toward sustainable messages New ! King-Size Better MORE No Money Down On Sale ! GREEN ! Right -Size Lasts a lifetime Sufficient Recyclable Quality ! Sufficiency Family Community Beauty Exploration Experience Advertising psychology of emotional maturity begins to influence purchasing decisions Fear Desire Sex Status People & Planet Living well within one planet Schools start teaching self- restraint, empathy and understanding, resilience and futures thinking, how to select preferable futures, understand complexity and risk and proactively adapt to the changing world around them Virtual visits and virtual foreign exchange programs between schools in different countries enable people to experience and learn of the realities of others Big risk Failure to understand and act on the urgency of the energy-water- climate-food situation Conflict over controversial technologies (such as genetically modified organisms, carbon capture and storage, artificial inteligence and nanotechnology) managed through transparency and inclusionary technology evaluation process. All key stakeholders – governments, business, civil society – help formulate policies Stewards of God's planet For many, “One World –People and Planet” becomes a strong unifying force uniting the world’s religions and many people responding to the message of "stewards of God's planet." Among some cultures Intra- generational inequities and intergenerational jealousies are diminishing in a world of more fluid identities Universal values of respect, tolerance, justice, dignity, empowerment, openness, security, resilience inclusion and fairness begins to spread across the world Respect Tolerance Justice Dignity Eco- awareness is firmly planted pre • caution • ary prin • ci • ple 1. Defined in the Rio treaty as: ‘where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation’ Eco-aware consumers lead selection of products, services, and leisure activities based on efficiency, ecological and social impacts, reinforcement of individual work-life balance, community needs, and global resilience If not NOW, WHEN? Sometime during this decade Sometime during this decade The urgency and need for change is evident and is increasingly advocated by corporate and political leadership. It becomes clear that the best option is to work together to change the rules of the game, find new solutions, and evolve new ways of thinking, measuring and doing Sometime during this decade New “people and planet” movement leaders emerge. Many societal actors take responsibility for deeper “ecological- awareness education” to encourage changes in perceptions and behaviour by the end of the decade. New measures of personal success beyond financial status become more popular People Planet Many educational systems recognize the imperative of maintaining ecosystem services, and incorporate the roles and responsibilities of individuals, companies in maintaining those services into curricula High biocapacity surpluses of developing countries become part of the global equation for saving the planet. Worldwide effort funds are flowing to those countries and to help build capacity, infrastructure, and skills, increase efficiency, to contribute to the eco-systems services. Local populations are mobilized and educated. Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Universal primary and secondary education has begun to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. More women are educated and engaged in economic activities, leading to improved health of women and their children Eco-awareness spreads rapidly Urgency drives education Big risk Ongoing struggle of ideologies & world views produces violent conflict New eco-awareness lifestyles Massive shift in values Massive shift in values from more growth, more comfort, more cleanliness, more consumption, more convenience, to... Everybody can be as rich as Americans! “One World - People and Planet” People and Planet” awareness & conscious enabled by value shifts and policies in the previous decade. Eco-Lifestyles are seen to reap rewards (e.g. improvements in quality of life, well-being and new forms of interaction and belonging). These lifestyles are popularized by celebrities. People are optimistic about the future and feel empowered and enabled to deal with challenges that may come at them in the future pol • lut • ter pays prin • ci • ple 1. the party or organization responsible for producing and releasing pollution into the environment should be responsible for paying for the damage done to the natural environment. Polluter Pays Principle Living well, within one planet lifestyles are begining to emerge These lifestyles are further defined, reaping rewards such as improvements in quality of life, well-being and new forms of interaction and belonging Educating girls results in decreasing birth rates, decreasing child mortality, and improvements in family health, income and prosperity Big risk AIDS continues to spread Big risk Pandemics (old and new) Big risk Multiple famines and humanitarian disasters Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Reproductive choice, contraception, family planning available virtually everywhere on the planet Basic needs are increasingly being met, including universal access to hygiene, sanitation, clean water, air and energy, food security, healthcare, vaccination and health education Big risk Failure to reduce the rate of population increase Consumption per person drops; focus on purchasing services rather than products Big risk Massive migrations threaten sustainability gains Nitrogen fertilizer efficiency increased to reduce nitrogen oxides that are greenhouse gases and to reduce eutrophication Stress and drought tolerant seeds becoming available enabling greater yield Rice planting moves to dry land & drip irrigation and produces major drop in methane emissions Genetically modified corn, wheat, and rice continue to increase world food supply by two percent per year 2% Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 African agricultural yield improves by a factor of five With better seed, fertilizer, market access and crop protection chemicals, as well as education and extension, yields could be vastly improved. 5x Ambitious, but possible. Increase of percentage irrigated crops, with the target to have increase irrigation efficiency by at least 100% Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Brazilian agricultural productivity increases by a factor of two 2x AGRICULTURE - Feed 9 Billion People by 2050 Rate of adoption of minimum tillage accelerates and the technique becomes the predominant form of soil management Carbon credits become widely available for agriculture encouraging conservation tillage practices and more efficient use of fertilizers CO2 $ 2nd generation biofuels hit market. Cellulosics converted into biofuels greatly improves fuel efficiency, frees up cropland, alleviates food/fuel conflict, and diminishes carbon footprint Assumption: Better use of freshwater. Most efficient way of increasing the efficiency of water use in agriculture is through increasing yields and requires extracting the maximum yield per drop. Strong growth in investments in Africa's agricultural infrastructur Increasing knowledge in agriculture continuously optimizes input efficiency. Farmers manage the landscape, and need technical support, access to capital, access to markets and information to build capacity for higher productivity and natural resource efficiency. Wide acceptance of existing technology. Russia & Ukraine triple wheat yield via professionalization of farming 3x Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Asian, Pacific water efficiency doubles 2x Doubling & tripling of yields Eco-footprint standards developed, spread More yields double Yield targets close to achievement Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and if possible not use any more land for agriculture. Brazil, China, CIS, India, improve distribution infrastructure and Africa is beginning that process Such infrastructure is key enabling factor for increasing farm production Improved transportation infrastructure helps sell African farm produce. Also reduces its previous import requirements, and makes a huge contribution to global agricultural production Big risk Trade protectionism continues to thwart increased food production Much greater public sector research and development to increase crop yields – reversing trend in recent years Big risk delayed Major, rapid onset of drought, migration & resource wars in Africa FOOD Big risk avoided Major desertifications (in Africa, North China, US Southwest) Big risk Major food shortages & famines Big risk Temperature rise above levels that avoid further increase in food production N Big risk "Green revolution" in food production ends Green Revolution Big risk Extreme changes in rainfall due to global warming limit yield increases $ X subsidies With the successful completion of the WTO Doha round, large agricultural subsidies are discontinued boosting production in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa A rural renaissance, consequent resource efficiency and a system of open and fair trade ensure food security for large numbers of people Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Ecological footprint for agriculture (including land, water and energy efficiency) adopted, international biotechnology standards in place Big risk Major desertifications (in Australia, Africa, North China, US Southwest) Price paid for wood incorporates carbon stored or lost by its use Increased demand for building materials and other wood products, forest biomass for power generation and fuel drives greater production. Planted forest carbon stock Primary forest carbon stock Natural forest carbon stock 41 Gt 152 Gt 207 Gt 71% 7% 12% Increase over 2010 Total carbon stock Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests Approx. Milestones - 2030 Planted forest carbon stock Primary forest carbon stock Natural forest carbon stock 49 Gt 164 Gt 213 Gt 104% 15% 15% Increase over 2010 Total carbon stock Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests Approx. Milestones - 2040 Planted forest carbon stock Primary forest carbon stock Natural forest carbon stock 24 Gt 142 Gt 185 Gt Total carbon stock Approx. Amount of Carbon Stock in World Forests Required to be on track for sustainable 2050 Shift production from modified natural forest to planted forest by tripling planted forest yields by 2050 3x By the end of the decade Major actions addressed by REDD+ begin to be implemented: - Provide financial incentives to local people for conservation and expansion of ecosystem services from primary and modified natural forests. - Procedures for setting emissions levels - Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and verification - Processes to promote the participation of indigenous peoples and local communities REDD+ in Action Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Tropical deforestation has been reduced significantly and planted productive area increased from 120 to 185 million hectares Approaching very low carbon emissions Wood prices incorporate carbon Deforestation reduced significantly Plentiful sustainable forest products and services Planted forest carbon stock Primary forest carbon stock Natural forest carbon stock 30 Gt 147 Gt 203 Gt 25% 4% 10% Increase over 2010 Total carbon stock Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests Approx. Milestones - 2020 Carbon storage benefits of wood products are recognized in carbon markets $ Increasing harvests from planted forests provide more forest products and biomass that can be used for production of carbon neutral fuels Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Carbon prices support alternatives to extensive forest clearing, and build institutional capacity in remote forest regions. Carbon prices will be near the breakeven point for competing agricultural resources. Markets for carbon and ecosystem services promote intact primary forests, protect habitat and biodiversity, and enhance carbon storage Price Payments for carbon and ecosystem services enables increase in area of primary forests (both tropical and boreal) Provide solid wood products, biomass for carbon neutral fuels production (i.e. cellulosic biofuels), habitat, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage (which comprise sustainable forest products) 580 million oven dry metric tons of forest biomass would be available for production of carbon neutral fuels Total amount of carbon storage in wood products 22 million tons E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc. Increase over 2010 4% Total amount of carbon storage in wood products 26 million tons E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc. Increase over 2010 24% FOREST - Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion people by 2050 while reducing carbon emissions significantly Global action on deforestation Big risk Dramatic dieback and carbon release from Amazon forest from increased temperature Big risk Monocrops of new forests destroyed by destructive insects and diseases Big risks delayed Drought-induced tree mortality, infestations, logging, and fire double CO2 emissions Role of primary and modified forests as carbon banks driven home via media and primary education Big risk Major fuel and building wood shortages Modified forests are managed, but at a lower level of intensity, and used for various commercial purposes – thus providing another carbon bank. Environmental safety funds are established to support the restoration and maintenance of underlying bio- physical systems Yield from planted forests increase through genetic improvements – a mix of traits (drought tolerance, insect resistance) and adaptation to different forest types and locations Widespread urban forests absorb carbon, provide shade and wind protection, improve air quality Total amount of carbon storage in wood products 28 million tons E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc. Increase over 2010 35 % Forests approaching 30% coverage of land area Possibly by 2020 Ecosystem markets and eco- enterprises begin to thrive. In some cases, ecosystem services become the most lucrative investment option on the market $ services $ $ ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY - Maintain and restore This will take time, but is required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Improved NATURAL LITERACY - Increased knowledge and attention on ecosystem services A range of in-depth and comprehensive multi-year studies have deepened our understanding of the functioning of the full range of ecosystem services. Widespread media attention of such studies has contributed to a greater focus on the protection and enhancement of ecosystem services. Natural literacy spreads Earth’s regenerative capacity improves Habitats enlarged, enhanced and protected Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Donor countries increase the investment in rural communities in and around protected areas to grow their economic base and reward biodiversity protection. This provides the kind of protection that the market can not provide alone Drastically reduced for hunting and killing endangered species (for food, skins, medicines, etc), (e.g. rare frogs, turtles, and snakes to endangered fish and sea animals to bears and tigers, which are believed to have medicinal or aphrodisiacal applications) Essential to protect some species Fresh water Green products Cultural Clean air Sequester carbon Eco-system Services Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Business, NGOs, governments agree on ecosystem valuation methods including valuing the global commons (e.g. eco- services of oceans, forests, atmosphere, etc. National parks and refuges Protected marine areas Community management of protected areas Protected private ecotourism sites ...or roughly equivalent institutions and outcomes Source: Global Footprint Network This is our current situation 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.4 2.0 By the early 2020s we'll need 2 planets. Red line is projected footprint beyond biocapacity Current overshoot beyond biocapacity (approx. 40% of a planet) 2.2 1960 2020 1980 2000 2040 Number of planets For the past 25 years, humans have exceeded global biocapacity Big risk A disastrous 50% loss of species with unknown consequences for human and environmental prosperity Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Fair pricing of ecosystem services N P Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Management of nutrients (nitrogen & phosphorous), water, soil, vegetation and ecosystem health is a common practice which improves resiliency and ensures the sustainability of the biosphere Big risk Lack of scientific ability to track species prevents risk assessment of death of species and ecosystem collapse Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Seed banks and botanical gardens all over the world work closely together to preserve most of today's biodiversity Sustainable management of habitats Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Most natural habitats are protected to preserve biodiversity and allow natural adaptation to changing conditions (e.g. climate) £ $ Y Warning Mandatory standards are set within the OECD countries for energy efficiency (buildings and appliances). This includes limiting standby to 1w and specifically listing efficiency requirements in building codes. Violation Bullding energy codes for new buildings are strictly enforced Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Best agriculture technology available worldwide Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Methods to ensure that carbon credits awarded for avoided deforestation are not simply traded off against less emission reductions from fossil fuels CO2 $ Guaranteed Total amount of carbon storage in wood products E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc. Probably necessary to be on track to a sustainable 2050 Commitments to deep carbon reductions by industrialized countries to create demand for REDD+ carbon credits. CO 2 REDD+ Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Yields of planted forests are increased through best practices such as enhanced management of vegetation and fertilization and better site selection and species match. Genetic improvements and remote sensing technologies for inventory and management also important. Remote sensing used to monitor forest loss, health, structure, and function. Sustainable forest management approach becomes the norm. Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Increase forest harvest from 1.7 billion cubic meters today to 2.7 billion cubic meters Probably necessary for scenario to be "on track" for 2050 A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basis Discusses existing and potential global challenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or Nigeria. MAJOR ECONOMIES MEETING (MEM) summit meets often Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Freer trade in agricultural products, in order to maximize production of food and agricultural products on a global scale One of several ways to implement a necessary idea Principle of responsible (or sometimes called "pooled") sovereignty begins to take hold, as most governments actively realize how much of their national security requirements stretch beyond their own borders. Unlike traditional sovereignty where borders are sacrosanct and few have dared to interfere with another state's domestic matters, the principle of responsible sovereignty entails obligations and duties to other states as well as to one's own citizens. It suggests that states, in order to exercise responsibility, have to be accountable for how they treat their own people, must be accountable for the domestic and international actions that they take, and the effects that those have across borders Necessary for scenario to be "on track" for 2050 New governance systems are embedded at all levels. This includes new models of economic governance, which underpin the pricing of externalities and strengthen the functioning of markets; a global price for carbon is firmly in place. Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Governments, investors, and people beginning to put social value (contribution to society and sustainability of products and processes) equal to "shareholder value" social value shareholder value + Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Global price on carbon internalizes major costs of CO2 and other emissions internal- ized Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Externalities internalized and investors incorporate rapidly new accounting standards into risk and opportunity decision-making. These accounting changes enable companies to measure both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Energy Efficiency (Buildings and Appliances) - Implementation of mandatory minimum efficiency performance standards - Revisit international standards periodically to ensue continous improvement - No delays in legislation of strong regulations and enforcement is the most cost-effective policy Key Areas of International Collaboration: -Common standards set to discourage trade in sub efficient appliances. Required to be on track for 2050 Carbon has a price - cap & trade or carbon tax begin to transform electric power generation Maybe through a comprehensive treaty or perhaps a series of multilateral agreements CO2 $ Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) releases the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) report. Without REDD, the 2 degree C climate stabilization goal will not be met REDD+ Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Major collection of international agreements on climate and energy Not necessarily treaties, but at minimum bilateral and multilateral agreements Chronic, infectious and mental diseases are better managed, allowing people to live healthier and longer lives. Healthcare access and affordability have become fairer at all levels from primary care to secondary and tertiary care 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2050 Ecological Footprint (# of Earths) In the business as usual scenario we will be using 2.3 Earths 2.5- 2- 1.5- 1- 0.5- 0- | | | | | | With this set of pathways, we can decrease our over use of the Earth's regenerative capacity We can decrease our overshoot of the Earth's regenerative capacity to 1.1 Earths by 2050 Source: Global Footprint Network Planted forest carbon stock Primary forest carbon stock Natural forest carbon stock 59 Gt 175 Gt 220 Gt 146% 23% 19% Increase over 2010 Total carbon stock Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests Approx. Milestones - 2050 Reduction of deforestation rates puts us well on the way to avoiding the cumulative release of up to 50 GtC by 2100 Estimated cost of reducing deforestation rates by 50% by 2050 approx. U.S. $20 per ton Double planted forest carbon stock to 59 Gt 2x 3x Increase planted forest harvest from 800 million cubic meters to 2.7 billion cubic meters FORESTS Total amount of carbon storage in wood products (E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc.) 30 million tons, an Increase over 2010 of 44 % Better management of primary forests sequesters carbon and protects biodiversity, water and additional ecosystem services PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT Most adults can now read and write Most primary & secondary school children now in school most of year World public health has learned to cope with diseases spread by climate change Rapid, cheap worldwide communication for almost everybody Abject poverty reduced to minimal amount Aging population is engaged in society Customers no longer have to choose between ‘green’ products and the ones that meet their other consumer needs Education and economic empowerment of females accomplished in most places BASIC NEEDS OF ALL PEOPLE ARE MET with regards to food, clean water, sanitation, shelter and universal access to lifelong education. 2040s 2030s 2020s 2010s GOVERNANCE Greater global coordination on energy, resources, and climate change well on the way. Improvement and success in the governance path can be measured by the degree to which humanity achieves its goals in the other sectors of this dashboard. Many technologies improved efficiencies by a factor of 4 to 10, since 2000 By 2050 A world has been created whereby closed loop, circular principles are used for the management of natural, non- renewable materials MATERIALS Energy efficiency improvements in buildings, appliances, transport, industry and power generation represent the largest and least costly savings Zero waste and recycling have become the manufacturing and operations standard in industry Wastewater considered and used as a resource CO2 emissions, energy requirements and water usage are not constraints 4x 6x 10x BUILDINGS Less than 5 % buildings heated with fossil fuels 95 % of existing building stock uses zero net energy All appliances manufactured are energy- efficient Retrofitting of many buildings to be energy efficient well on the way Near Zero Net energy use 70% of people live in urban areas ECONOMY Almost 500 million people in India moved into middle class Almost 700 million people in China moved into middle class Global GDP approx. US$ 200 - 300 trillion Relatively full employment all around the world Economic growth is decoupled from environmental and material consumption and re-coupled to sustainable economic development and meeting changing needs True-value pricing has become standard for most economic transactions Indices of success and progress redefined at national, corporate and individual levels take into account environmental and social factors True Price 2050 - MEASURES OF SUCCESS Project member companies Accenture, Alcoa, Allianz SE, ArcelorMittal SA, Duke Energy Corporation, E.ON AG, Eskom Holdings Limited, Evonik Industries AG, FALCK Group, Fortum Corporation, GDF SUEZ, GrupoNueva SA, Holcim Ltd., Infosys Technologies Limited, Osaka Gas Co. Ltd., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Rio Tinto plc, Royal Philips Electronics NV, Sony Corporation, Storebrand ASA, Syngenta International AG, The Boeing Company, The Procter & Gamble Company, The Tokyo Electric Power Company Inc., Toyota Motor Corporation, Umicore, Vattenfall AB, Volkswagen AG, Weyerhaeuser Company This mural is released in the name of the WBCSD. It is the result of an 18-month collaborative effort among representatives from twenty-nine member companies, supported by the WBCSD secretariat. Like other WBCSD projects, Vision 2050 has involved a broad range of stakeholders in locations around the world. Developed in close consultation with the project members and several other consultants/advisers, the mural was reviewed by all relevant project members to ensure a broad agreement with its principal views and perspectives. However, this does not mean that every member company necessarily endorses or agrees with every statement in the mural. Use and display of and reliance on the mural shall be at the discretion of the readers. The content of the mural is aligned – as far as possible - with the content of the parallel Vision 2050 report. Perfect alignment is, however, neither possible or desired as the mural has its own characteristics. Viewers may wish to contact WBCSD for copies of a report. 2050 - MEASURES OF SUCCESS ENERGY AND POWER CO2 emissions reduced by approx. 85% from 1990 levels and global climate appears stable Access to clean and low-carbon energy nearly universal World invested an est. $45 trillion US from 2010 to today on CO2 mitigation Estimated to have been about 1.1% of global GDP each year Approx. 50 % of global energy production now from renewables Global emissions down to 14 gt CO2 per year Over 50% of CO2 abatement potential comes from efficiency technology Costs of adaptation to climate change widely shared Source: IEA Blue Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2010-2050 (World wide) Units Total by 2050 1400 800 1280 120 4000 560000 150000 5200 24800 3200 Coal-fired with CCS Gas-fired with CCS Nuclear Hydro Biomass plants Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Geothermal Solar Photovoltaic Concentrated Solar 500 mw CCS plants 500 mw CCS plants 1000 mw nuclear plants 5000 mw dams 50 mw biomass plants 4 mw wind turbines 4 mw wind turbines 100 mw geothermal units 50 mw installations 250 mw installations Approx. Milestones for staying below 2 o C (average global temperature) Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2010-2020 (World wide) Coal-fired with CCS Gas-fired with CCS Nuclear Hydro Biomass plants Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Geothermal Solar Photovoltaic Concentrated Solar 10 5 80 20 50 40000 5000 200 2000 300 500 mw CCS plants 500 mw CCS plants 1000 mw nuclear plants 5000 mw dams 50 mw biomass plants 4 mw wind turbines 4 mw wind turbines 100 mw geothermal units 50 mw installations 250 mw installations Units Total by 2020 Approx. Milestones for staying below 2 o C (average global temperature) Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2020-2030 (World wide) Units Coal-fired with CCS Gas-fired with CCS Nuclear Hydro Biomass plants Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Geothermal Solar Photovoltaic Concentrated Solar 500 mw CCS plants 500 mw CCS plants 1000 mw nuclear plants 5000 mw dams 50 mw biomass plants 4 mw wind turbines 4 mw wind turbines 100 mw geothermal units 50 mw installations 250 mw installations 2020-2030 190 95 300 40 900 80000 20000 700 5000 600 Approx. Milestones for staying below 2 o C (average global temperature) AGRICULTURE Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions reduced to 20% of 2008 levels Land area devoted to agriculture has been slightly decreased on 2010 levels while production of food, fiber, animal feed and agricultural based biofuels has increased. Doubling of total agricultural output to 2050 In developing countries 96% of people are well fed Water use in agriculture improves with irrigation efficiency close to 100% 2x 2x Wheat production doubles World's second biggest crop in volume and represents the greatest challenge for reversing the trend of declining yield growth. Currently rate of yield gain in wheat has been fallingfaster than any other crop. New technologies, especially in Eastern Europe and Africa, reverse this decline ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITY Animal DNA banks begin to rejuvenate some species Biodiversity reservations stabilize loss of species Zero-waste world values ecosystem services and natural resources Seed banks have preserved much biodiversity Condition of biodiversity stabilizing but still at significant risk as irreversible losses continue, although at a slower rate Most toxic chemicals stopped from entering biosphere Fish species abundance returns Coral reefs greatly decimated, but deterioration halts Acidification of oceans halted though still precarious Ph Serious depletion of soil through erosion beginning to be reversed Desertification in many areas halted or reversed Ozone depletion rate reversed Amazon rainforest basin appears to be recovering Considerable global biodiversity has been lost in past 40 years but Global catastrophe so far avoided but lack of scientific ability to keep track of millions of species hampers realistic appraisal Copyright 2010 World Business Council for Sustainable Development and R.E. Horn Global fisheries protected System of tradable fishing quotas or permits used internationally (each fishery in global oceans is limited to catch a certain size) Bottom trawling on sea mounts outlawed Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Fish farming (both freshwater and ocean species), and mariculture (algae and kelp) provide a sustainable means to satisfying global seafood needs. Wastes radically reduced. Escaped genetically modified fish problem fixed QUOTA $ Wide use of sustainable aquaculture practices reduces pollution Mainstream learnings from first experiment of zero-carbon, low waste buildings and communities 21 million tons Big risk Major nuclear accident Increase yields for all major staple crops (rice, wheat, corn) in most regions. Wheat Rice Corn Big risk Soil degradation continues (erosion, salinization, nutrient depletion) World Business Council for Sustainable Development Precautionary Principle MOBILITY - Low carbon Near zero road fatalities MOBILITY Almost all people will have access to safe, lowest emission and low carbon mobility CO2 emissions have been reduced by about 30 % below 2005 levels Costs of aviation biofuels become competitive with those of traditional jet fuel Sustainable biofuels begin to be significant in shipping, at first in auxiliary engines and later for main engine propulsion. Biofuels and gas, hydrogen or methanol fuel cells are important. Onboard CO2 capture is in its nascent phase. 180- 160- 140- 120- 100- 80- 60- 50- 40- 20- 0- | | | | | | 2000 2020 2040 2050 2030 2010 Hydrogen Electric Gasoline plug-in hybrid Gasoline Diesel Gasoline hybrid Ap Source: Annual light-duty vehicle sales by technology type in IEA BLUE Map Low carbon fuels and vehicles become a factor in the market after 2020 Sustainable biofuels increasing to 30% of fuel used in aircraft Nuclear power may come as source - not likely before 2040 because of technical / cost / safety and security reasons. Many experimental projects for ship propulsion will materialize before 2030 using wind /solar / wave energy Fleet planning / slow steaming (speed reduction), weather routing: all contributing to significant reduction of energy / hence cost reduction etc. Continuous trend in the coming decades will be increased holistic view on total transport chain performance (instead of focus of maximum performance of sub-elements in the chain) Major initiatives to Integrate city & infrastructure planning begin. Cities: - begin to integrate transport systems and have a transport oriented planning focus - offer smart mobility to provide choice of most appropriate mode of transportation for each individual traffic situation - have adequate public transport in densely populated areas Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Transportation energy efficiency: - Mandatory efficiency standards; eventually harmonized globally at highest efficiency level - Incentives for new technology other than increasing size, weight or power - Standards set for medium and heavy duty trucks (logistics, on- road efficiency) Fossil-fuel use begins to drop R&D and more deployment for low carbon mobility Vehicles electric; air & ships using sustainable biofuels Rapid transition to renewable fuels Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Sustainable biofuels for aviation are fully tested and begin to be used Governments help to ensure - sufficient and steady biofuel supply through early incentives - aviation is allocated necessary share of biofuel supply despite competition with other forms of transportation - cost does not exceed petroleum-based jet fuel Significant reduction in NOx / SOx / emissions to air from new and existing ships through legislative limitations and regulations that require special environmental areas (SECAs) (already implemented in Europe). SECAs restrict emissions from shipping. 2010s or early 2020s Implement 4 step approach for road safety 1) Implement latest safety technology in all cars 2) Implement integrated transport systems 3) Separate mixed traffic 4) Adjust infrastructure around populated areas Efficient inland river and canal transportation systems will receive more cargo from road based alternatives, and LNG-driven train barge systems can emerge in countries in the EU (first), then China & the US, then Russia / other countries. Sustainable biofuel used for marine engines + fuel cells on gas/methanol begin to be used for auxiliary engines. Onboard CO2 capture and storage in early deployment phase. Integrated city & infrastructure planning: Cities now routinely use systems like ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) resulting in reduced travel demand and a more efficient traffic mix Consumers have instantaneous, accurate, and transparent information to choose best option Polar ice cap melting has resulted in shorter transport routes between Europe and Asia Access to mobility is improved for the one billion people in rural areas who lack it R&D accelerates innovation in sustaiinable biofuels, electric vehicles and alternative drivetrains Liberalization of the rail sector allows export of competence and technologies for both passenger and freight services Big risk Peak oil brings high prices before transition to renewables Traffic control begins on certain sea routes, while the practice of ships returning empty from a voyage is phased out. Algae-based sustainable biofuels begin to result in low net greenhouse gas Wide use of sustainable biofuels now standard for aviation Panama canal extension completed (2015 +/-), the maximum breadth of ships increases to 49m (from 32,26m), and max length to 366m (from 249m). 49 meters Hydrogen powered vehicles begin to factor in the marketplace H Carbon and environmental footprints from shipping are significantly reduced through operational, policy, efficiency and decarbonization innovations, just like in the other mobility sectors Noise from vehicles, rail and transport infrastructure has been significantly reduced. NOx and particulate emissions from vehicles have been almost eliminated NOx Best route Sustainable biofuels are the standard fuels for aviation, while experimentation with advanced technologies for generating and harnessing energy – from fuel cells and solar cells to innovative energy harvesting methods – have created new possibilities for airplane design Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 International standards for sustainable biofuels are adopted, and monitoring systems installed Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Integrated rail networks spread. Infrastructure investments keep up with growing demand of passenger and freight transport Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Development and deployment of efficient internal combustion vehicles improve new- vehicle carbon intensity up to 30- 40%, enabled by better policies and introduction of Electric Vehicles (EV)/ Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) Integrated urban planning, especially in the fast-growing cities, improves transport and allows for more choice among appropriate modes Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Vehicle users adopt more efficient driving behavior, stimulated through information campaigns Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Improved energy efficiency in shipping is achieved through holistic approaches to transport chain performance • Intelligent Transportation System (ITs) connects vehicles to each other and to infrastructure Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Policy makers and industry partner to speed up research into and deployment of alternative drivetrains and advanced biofuels Fuel efficiency improved for all modes. Alternative fuels - biofuels and esp. electricity and hydrogen - have reached high market shares worldwide." High speed electric rail has become an attractive option of city to city travel in most developed countries Note: These fuel type proportions are illustrative, hypothetical, and highly dependent on the many assumptions made in the scenario from which they are taken.

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Page 1: Pathway toward a sustainable 2050 World Business Council for … · 2012-05-12 · Pathway toward a sustainable 2050 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s Early in this decade Approx. 12% of global

VISION 2050: THE NEW AGENDA FOR BUSINESSUnder the WBCSD’s Vision 2050 Project, twenty-nine WBCSD member companies developed a vision of a world well on the way to sustainability by 2050 and the pathways leading to that world.

This mural is a basis for visualizing the possible pathways. The mural is meant to provide a tool for strategic planning, prioritizing, and monitoring progress to help countries, businesses, NGOs, international organizations and individuals assess the degree to which we are on track to accomplishing the vision.

This pathways mural represents just one part of the WBCSD Vision 2050 project. After creating a rough idea of what a sustainable future might look like (see our mural containing the 22 elements of the Vision for 2050), we asked the question: In each of the decades preceding 2050 what would have to be in place for us plausibly to arrive at a sustainable 2050? This process is often called "backcasting." The results are presented here in the form of pathways.

Perhaps the most significant components of the mural are (1) the yellow boxes , which together present a statement of the major things that need to happen - that must happen - for the world to reach 2050 in a sustainable way; and (2) the measures of success at the far right side of the mural, which create a kind of prototype for a global dashboard.

The mural presents a large number of interdependent, complex global issues and options. It gives a sense of possible eventualities, not precise predictions.Please note that all future dates and numbers are approximations.

2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050

2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040

2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 203 0 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030

2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 202 0 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050

2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040 2040

2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 203 0 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030 2030

2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020

MacroVU® AnalyticsAnalysis, synthesis, and mural byRobert E. Horn, Stanford [email protected]

World Business Council forSustainable Development

Pathway toward a sustainable 20502040s2030s2020s2010s

Early in this decadeApprox. 12% ofglobal powergenerationassets use CCS assuming the R&D work and thatcarbon has an emissions price

Maybe – But don't count on itNuclearFusionStatus: Recent estimates suggest this could be implemented in 2035 - 2045

Maybe–But don't count on it High-altitudeWindStatus(2010): Helium filled, spinning generators floatingabout 3x as high as current wind turbines. Eight are flying now.More and more types are planned for tests.

Potentially rapid gains in secondgenerationbiofuels

4th generation nuclear plantsCosts are high and learning

cycles slow (almost 10 years per generation)

+++

-

- -

Algae-basedbiofuelsbegin to be widely used

Possibly one-third of all coal-fired power plants close before normal end of life cycle because they are not suitable for carbonsequestration

Probably – But don't count on a whole lot of itWave PowerStatus (2010): Likely to help, but unlikely to be a major source of electricity, because of not enough good sites.

Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2020-2030 (World wide)

UnitsCoal-fired with CCSGas-fired with CCSNuclearHydroBiomass plantsWind-onshoreWind-offshoreGeothermalSolar PhotovoltaicConcentrated Solar

500 mw CCS plants500 mw CCS plants1000 mw nuclear plants5000 mw dams50 mw biomass plants4 mw wind turbines4 mw wind turbines100 mw geothermal units50 mw installations250 mw installations

2030-2040

4503004003013501600004000015007500900

Approx. Milestones for staying below 2oC (average global temperature)

Somewhere in this decade or possibly beforeSolar muchcheaper than fossile fuels

Big risk Failure ofcarbon capturesequestration(CCS_)

Somewhere in this decade or possibly before Windenergy begins to be economicallycompetitive with coal

New energy mix in placeRapid scale-up of renewablesRenewables achieve at least cost parity with more traditional forms of generation

Price of carbon in place, preferably on a global basis. Tax incentives / subsidies drive renewables expansion. Proven commercial viability of CCS.

Required to be on track for 2050 Energy R&D increases rapidly

Required to be on track for 2050Major collection ofinternational agreements on climate and energy Notnecessarily treaties, but perhaps bilateral and multilateral agreements

ENERGY AND POWER - Meet increasing demand while stabilizing global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius – equivalent to approx. 450 ppm CO2 in atmosphere

Required to be on track for 2050Carbon sequestrationfunded for rapiddeployment

Roughly 10 demonstrationCarbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) plants in operation. CCStechnology is determined to work well

International R&D and prototype drilling projects to demonstrate geothermal. Research determines geothermal does not cause significant earthquakes

Maybe – But don't count on itSpace-BasedSolarStatus(2010): Giant solar collectors in geosynchronousorbit would collect sunlight and shoot it to earth on microwave beams.Japan has current research project)

Maybe as late as this decadeNanotech SolarStatus (2010): New materials collect a wider range of wavelengths and might bring costs of solar down. Actually by this time we may be unable to tell the difference between "nano" and simply "any advance in materials."

Carbon Prices, R&D and International patent protection encouraging deployment of concentrated solar power combined heat and power,onshore wind

Solution to storage of radioactivewaste found

DC and super conducting

transmissionlines

deployed to harness long

distancerenewables.Smart grids

used to manage

intermittentrenewableresources

Countries, cities, businesses decide to reduce emissions on their own or because costs of or unavailability of fossil fuels and because International agreements are delayed

Big riskInsufficientgrowing areasavailable forbiofuels

Big risk Major ocean acidification

Big riskTemperaturerise above 2 degreesCelsiusavoided

Big riskPeak oil happensbeforerenewablesfully deployed

Big riskFailure ofglobal energyplanningleading to long-term lock-in ofcoal powerplants

Required to be on track for 2050Distorting energy subsidies phased out and increased international cooperation in deploying low-carbon technology occurs

- Renewables 35-45% - Nuclear 20-25%- CCS 20-35%- Others ---

approx

Uncertain timing - perhaps during this decade Massivetransition - shocksto conventionalpower infrastructureinvestment.Solar & wind costs divebelow coal, oil & gas. Coal/nuclearinfrastructure projectfinancing collapses

Policies to increaseefficiency and conservationare leading to lowered unit consumption

Capacity building ensures that foreigninvestment is enhanced by credibleinstitutionalframeworks and stable political and legal systems

Globalemissions ofgreenhousegases peak

! !New forms of public-privatepartnershipsestablished to quickly screen, fund, develop, anddemonstratepromisingtechnologies

BUILDINGS - Energy efficient and comfortable living and working spacesReal-timeadaptivemanagementby computers run many urban systems

Global standardscontinue to tighten forenergy efficiency(buildings and appliances)

OECD countries introduce tough efficiency regulations for existing buildings,appliances and vehicles. Criticalsuccess element is wide public acceptance

Tough energy efficiency regulations begin Strict enforcementMandatory standards Global standards

All appliancesmanufacturedare energy-efficient

Urban planning standards arechanging the density and mobilitypatterns of new neighborhoodsand cities

Energy-saving behaviors as a cultural normbecoming common across many countriesCountries completing the

manditory energy labeling of all appliances

Tax incentives and subsidiesbeginning to enable energy-efficiencyinvestments with longer paybackperiods

Buildingenergyefficiencyaudits arebecomingthe norm in most OECD countries

Retrofitting ofcityinfrastructurebecoming globalmega-industryas more people move to urban centers

Big riskFailure to fix dozens of kinds of marketfailures in buildings

Innovation and deployment ofbuilding and appliancetechnologiescontinues. Energyefficiencyincentivized and developed

Efficiency included in addition to building Fire, Safety and Health regulations and codes

Programmes launched to develop requisite skills and capacity in the construction sector, to monitor and record the implementation of energy efficiency, and to increase awareness among school children

Mandatory globalstandards for energyefficiency (buildings,

appliances and standby). This includes limiting

standby to 1w and specifically listing

efficiency requirementsin building codes.

Significantproportions of building heat and electricity needs being generated on site

Energy efficiencymeters beginning to be widespread among all buildings. Theinformation providedallows for increasedenergy conservationand dynamic pricing

Integrated building design practicesinvolving architects,developers,contractors etc. in writing projectspecifications arethe norm

Government purchase coordinated around the world produce new markets for efficient products and government sponsored retrofittingprogrammes in public buildings around the world expedite new markets for efficient products

Approx.40% of

emissionsare

buildingrelated

40%Buildings

All other sources

Urbanization makes it more efficient to deliverinfrastructure and human developmentimprovements. Better and more holistic planning of cities and economies of scale allow for greater efficiency in the allocation of capital and labor, as well as the provision of utilities and services to a larger number of people

MATERIALS - Closed-loop society

Circular, closed loop designs drive industry.The efficiency ofmaterial use, includingthe control of waste and pollution, is many times greater than at the turnof the century

4x 10x3x

Biofuels and biochemicalsbegin toreplace fossilfuels and fossilderivedchemicals forthe productionof plastics

Nano-technologybeginning to revolutionizemanufacturing

+++

-

- -

Methods of organizingmega-projects suchas building completely new cities is well-understood

Methods ofinnovationwell-knownand wide-spread

Transformationbegins of longer distance supply chains to more local, resilient ones.

Validation of storageapplications of Industrial-application Carbon Capture and Storage for industrialapplications is complete

Transportationinfrastructure for Industrial-applicationCarbon Capture and Storage is being widely developed

The majority of CO2-intensive industrial facilities use Carbon Capture and Storage technology; CCS also used for biofuels production

All waste is inventoried in such a way that its recycling is possible at a future date

Recyclingtechnologiesare 10x more efficient than 2010

10xSkill set in energy management, process and product innovation, services, long term planning, logistics optimization,environmental science and human needs assessment rapidly expands

Major design improvementsespecially in advanced material & product development- Longer life - Short life high recycle- Up cycling- Design disassembly

Continuous improvement over several decades:- Difficult to recycle, harmful or scarce materials are progressively be replaced or ultimately be banned.- Technology development continues to improve recycling yields. Goods are increasingly designed and engineered to be reused and recycled

New hybrid / compositematerialtechnologiesscaled up

A complete range of new products and services offered, based on high longevity, low embodied water, and low energy and material content

High CO2 emittingplantsbegin to be closed

Factor 10 per capita consumption of non-renewable resources does not exceed 5-6 tons per year

10xTechnologiesare available to economicallymine existing landfills

Payment for closing quarries and for reforestation, water reservoirs, recreation areas now firmly in placeRESEVOIR

No DumpingNoSwimmig

Price

Net zeroemission plants are the norm for new plants

NetZero

World business continues to fine tune policies on eliminating toxic substances and improving design and recycling mandates

Solution to radioactive waste is accepted and practiced

Waste and recyclingare fullyintegratedin the businessmodel

Bioreactors begin to capture part of CO2 emissions from atmosphere.

Several metals / minerals are approaching primary mining limits. Without recycling, shortages will start to dictate the options for use of materials

Manufacturing emits morethan one-third of all CO2Iron, steel & cement account for half of these emissionsChemicals and petrochemicals also make significant contributions

Global business begins to reduce product sizes, avoid waste in packaging & increaseproduct lifetime

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Global business and governments agree on a set of indicators & rules for accounting about resources, energy and materials. These rules establish the true cost of primary and secondary materials.

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050New landfill legislationbegins to set standards for recycling and reuse

Faster, leaner production processes becoming the norm. Business model innovation by reviewing value chains, redesigning products and services, and re-engineering processes

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Industrial-application Carbon Capture and Storage- Develop legal and regulatory frameworks, to include liability clarity for CO2- R&D to reduce capture costs, determine storage integrity, monitoring- Greater public awareness of benefits and cost

Required on track for a sustainable 2050 Clear,predictable, long-term economic incentives for CO2 reduction and clear carbon costs empower business to undertake the huge investments required for energy and materials turnaround

Accounting standards begin Major CO2 reduction on the way Advanced materials design common Closed loop manufacturing commonCo-combustion ofrenewables and waste increasedto 50 %

50%

Big risk Rapid increase in health problemsfrom toxicchemicals

Big risk Continuing to build tightlycoupled systems of poor resiliency

Non-recyclablesubstances are molecularlymarked so producers can be identified if they leak from industrialcycles charged with recovery

Countries and individual provinces and states beginning to ban many more toxic substances

30%

All other sources

ManufacturingCO2 emissions

High labor forceparticipation ofyouth and femaleemployment. Morediverse patterns of working life. Enabling technologies, innovative means of working, ethos of lifelong learning and refreshing skills contribute to and boost labor productivity

New understanding ofwealth and poverty.Nations still pursuetheir competitiveadvantages, but thereis a deep understanding thatpoverty anywhereundermines prosperityeverywhere

long term perspective

intergenerationalsolidarity

new business models

Significant changes during this decade - maybe earlierWidespreadinternalization of cost of CO2 emissions has major effects on decisions

CO2 $

inte

rnal-

ized

Maybe during this decade - but likely in the long run Huge increase in national sovereign investment funds focuses on long term sustainable investment

New measures ofeconomic progresstransformeconomicstructure.Measurements ofprogress take into account social and environmentalconsiderations

GenuineProgressIndicator

Creative society in which a welleducated and skilled work force rapidlyabsorbs best practices and new technologies, leading to significant improvements in labor productivityand efficiency.

Hyper-innovative economy (that is creative, transparent and accountable)enables high levels of laborproductivity in a diversity of sectorsand services. Open and collaborativeorganizations (networks, organizations,people and societies) are central

GLOBAL ECONOMY, FINANCE, & BUSINESS MODELS - Transform contemporary industrial capitalism into sustainable capitalismJob creation in developing countries beginning to increaseemploymentprospects.Economic growthboosts tax revenues,allowing for a certain level ofsafety/welfare nets, e.g. old-age financial assistance

A variety ofeconomicmodels, enterprise,capital and formsof property exist.New intergenerationalsolidarity has givencompanies and the economy a much longer termperspective, and new waysof judging profit, loss, and shareholder value

12

3

4567

8

9

1011 12

Bigger populationsand new technologiesbegin to enable high levels of laborproductivity. Create a focus on more open and fluid concept of work – part-time,flexitime, teleworking, co-working, and leave of absence

Internalize carbon costs Global accounting standards Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Global convergenceto InternationalFinancial ReportingStandards (IFRS) provides coordinatedmodel of business action

Social value in business Hyper-innovative economyBig riskMajor globaleconomicdepression

Big riskDecrease in financialstability

Big riskLow investmentin transition to renewableenergy beforelow cost carbon energyexhausted

Big riskIncreasinggap betweenwealthy and poor

Valuation, investment and accounting criteria are reformulated as businesses and markets adapt to new sets of incentives that couple traditional profitability with the creation of long-term value

Innovative financing mechanisms start to emerge that focus on longer-term sustainableinvestments

Financial products are certified before being put on the market, verifying their ability to contribute positively to the economy, society and environment, particularly in reallocating risks

New measures of progress being developed that are more reflective of true progress than traditional GDP

Microlending and other innovative financing tools beginning to make major impact

Resource-rich, but sometimes income-poor,countries are increasingly recognized as critical elements of the equation for stabilizing the environment. The biocapacity in these countries attracts funds from global sources to build skills, infrastructure and efficiency

Business responds to higher costs resulting from internalization of externalities with new efficiencies in materials sourcing, product design, production,marketing and distribution

Bases of profit and loss, progress, and value creation are redefined to consider longer-termenvironmentalimpacts and personal and social wellbeing. Prices reflect all externalities (costs and benefits).

Big riskFailure to adopt a global carbon price regimeEvery MBA

incorporatessustainablemanagement

Everyengineeringcourse hassustainablecomponent

Sustain-ability

MBASustainableEngineeringEducation

NewMetrics

Micro-lending

Long term investments

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050New traderegimes begin to benefit many,rich and poor

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Technologytransfer for energy and some other areassuch as food is successfully implemented.Collaboration between government leaders from major economies in both North and South lead to creation of a global venture capital fund to commercialize clean energy and food technologies. The fund licenses intellectual property and sells technology to countries on terms that vary according to their average per capita GDP. This is supported by concessional terms for developing countries (Or some other approach that is efficient and effective and meets same goals)

IPFUND

$ £

Massive demand for investments into global infrastructure above USD 10 trillion between 2008 and 2015 (e.g. China’shigh speed rail; India’s power generation; US interstate system; refurbishment of water plants in EU)

Possibly by 2040Almost universal values ofrespect, tolerance, justice and fairness required by the sustainable world;have grown to include all the planet’s people, ensuring that all haveequity of opportunity

Implementing newglobal strategies, rules & standardsare mostly left to national and sub-national level.Take diverse cultural forms. Multi-sector and multi-actor task-forces deploy recommendations.

Global summits areinformed by Global Issues Networks (withrepresentatives of nationalgovernments, international civil society, internationalinstitutions and corporationswith global expertise) thatproactively identify potential issues and suggest resolution(or functionally equivalent organizations)

GlobalIssues

Networks

Quite likely in this decadeTen to 50 millionNGOs areinvolved in most public decisions

N G ON G O

N G ON G O N G O

N G ON G O

N G O

N G O

NGO

Quite possibly in this decade "The Reponsibility to Protect" used for firsttime by the African Union to protectcitizens in twocountries in CentralAfrica from faminecaused by globalwarming

International governance begins to shift from treaties to cooperative issue networks and more frequent trust-building summits and mini-summitsRepresentatives from governments, NGOs, UN and business collaborate on issues

GlobalDashboardestablished to guide globaldecision making

Quite likely combination of technology and global citizen involvementWidespread use ofmillions of eyesand the internetbegin to monitor compliance with climate & sustainabilityagreements

Some sort of"CoordinatingGlobal Issues Forum" might gradually come into being linkedto issue

Probably necessary to be "on track" for 2050IMF and World Bank redesignthemselves to increase the decision-making authority ofemerging economies. Emerging economies could be given more votes provided they are willing to be subjected to more scrutiny. Additionally, actions must be taken to increase the IMF's and World Bank's capital bases to enable them to respond more effectively to needs of emerging economies.

GOVERNANCE - Enable transformations in global economy and planetary sustainability by 2050

GlobalIssues

Networks

Growing awareness of need to cooperate Global coordination spreads Widespread implementation of solutions Coordination for a safer planetBig riskInternationalterrorismnetworksincrease

Big riskMassive rise ofinternationaldrug and crime organizations

Big riskDecline in effectivenessof the United Nations

Big risk Major group of earlywarning climate shocks(e.g."Katrinas") happenin the same year

Big riskProliferationof nuclearweapons

Big riskNuclearwastedisposal not solved

Big risk Multiple,overlappingstate failuresin Africa

Big risk Proliferationof biological weapons

Big riskMilitarizationof Space

Big riskGovernmentsfail to collaborate in increasinglyfragmentedworld

Big riskRegionalinstabilityand wars

PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT - Well on the way to meeting basic needs of all people by 2050

Advertisingmessages shift towardsustainablemessages

New !King-Size

Better

MORENoMoneyDown

On Sale !GREEN !

Right -SizeLasts a lifetime

SufficientRecyclable

Quality !

Sufficiency FamilyCommunity BeautyExploration Experience

Advertisingpsychology of emotional maturity begins to influence purchasingdecisions

FearDesireSexStatus

People&

Planet

Livingwell

withinone

planet

Schools startteaching self-restraint, empathyand understanding,resilience and futuresthinking, how to select preferablefutures, understandcomplexity and risk and proactively adaptto the changing worldaround them

Virtual visits and virtual foreignexchangeprogramsbetween schoolsin differentcountries enablepeople to experienceand learn of the realities of others

Big riskFailure to understandand act on the urgency of the energy-water-climate-foodsituation

Conflict over controversialtechnologies (such as genetically modified organisms, carbon captureand storage, artificialinteligence and nanotechnology) managedthrough transparency and inclusionary technologyevaluation process. All keystakeholders – governments,business, civil society – help formulate policies

Stewardsof God's planet

For many, “OneWorld –People and Planet” becomes a strong unifying forceuniting the world’sreligions and many people responding to the message of"stewards of God's planet."

Among some cultures Intra-generationalinequities and intergenerationaljealousies are diminishing in a world of more fluid identities

Universal values of respect,tolerance,justice, dignity,empowerment,openness,security,resilienceinclusion and fairness beginsto spread acrossthe world

RespectTolerance

JusticeDignityEco-

awarenessis firmlyplanted

pre • caution • ary prin • ci • ple1. Defined in the Rio treaty as:‘where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation’

Eco-aware consumers lead selection of products, services, and leisure activities based on efficiency, ecological and social impacts, reinforcement of individual work-life balance, community needs, and global resilience

If not NOW,

WHEN?

Sometime during this decade Sometime during this decade Theurgency and need for change is evidentand is increasingly advocated by corporate and political leadership. It becomes clear that the best option is to work together to change the rules ofthe game, find new solutions, and evolve new ways of thinking, measuring and doing

Sometime during this decade New “people and planet”movement leaders emerge.Many societal actors take responsibility for deeper “ecological-awareness education” to encourage changes in perceptions and behaviour by the end of the decade.New measures of personal success beyond financial status become more popular

PeoplePlanet

Many educational systems recognize the imperative ofmaintaining ecosystem services, and incorporate the roles and responsibilities ofindividuals, companies in maintaining those servicesinto curricula

High biocapacity surplusesof developing countries become part of the globalequation for saving the planet. Worldwide effort funds are flowing to those countries and to help build capacity,infrastructure, and skills, increase efficiency, to contribute to the eco-systems services. Local populations are mobilized and educated.

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Universal primary and secondary education has begun to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. More women are educated and engaged in economic activities, leading to improved health of women and their children

Eco-awareness spreads rapidly Urgency drives educationBig risk Ongoing struggleof ideologies & world views producesviolentconflict

New eco-awareness lifestyles Massive shift in values

Massive shift in values from more growth, more comfort, more cleanliness, more consumption, more convenience,to...

Everybodycan be as rich as Americans!

“One World - People and Planet” People and Planet” awareness & conscious enabled by value shifts and policies in the previous decade.

Eco-Lifestyles areseen to reap rewards(e.g. improvements in quality of life, well-being and new forms of interaction and belonging). These lifestyles are popularized by celebrities.People are optimistic about the future and feel empowered and enabled to deal with challenges that may come at them in the future

pol • lut • ter paysprin • ci • ple1. the party or organization responsible for producing and releasing pollution into the environment should be responsible for paying for the damage done to the natural environment.

PolluterPays

PrincipleLiving well, within one planet lifestyles arebegining to emergeThese lifestyles are furtherdefined, reaping rewards suchas improvements in quality oflife, well-being and new formsof interaction and belonging

Educating girls results in decreasing birth rates, decreasing child mortality,and improvements in family health, income and prosperity

Big risk AIDScontinuesto spread

Big riskPandemics(old and new)

Big risk Multiplefamines and humanitariandisasters

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Reproductive choice,contraception, familyplanning availablevirtually everywhereon the planet

Basic needs are increasingly being met, including universal access to hygiene, sanitation, clean water, air and energy, food security, healthcare, vaccination and health education

Big risk Failure to reduce the rate ofpopulationincrease Consumption per

person drops; focus on purchasing servicesrather than products

Big riskMassivemigrationsthreatensustainabilitygains

Nitrogen fertilizer efficiency increased to reduce nitrogen oxides that are greenhouse gases and to reduce eutrophication

Stress and drought tolerant seeds becoming available enabling greater yield

Rice planting moves to dry land & drip irrigation and produces major drop in methane emissions

Genetically modified corn,

wheat, and rice continue to

increase world food supply by two

percent per year2%

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Africanagricultural yield improves by a factor of fiveWith better seed, fertilizer, market access and crop protection chemicals, as well as education and extension, yields could be vastly improved.

5x

Ambitious, but possible.Increase of percentageirrigated crops, with the target to have increaseirrigationefficiency by at least 100%

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Brazilianagriculturalproductivityincreases by a factor of two

2x

AGRICULTURE - Feed 9 Billion People by 2050

Rate of adoption ofminimum tillageaccelerates and the technique becomes the predominant formof soil management

Carbon credits become widely available for agricultureencouragingconservationtillage practices and more efficient use of fertilizers

CO2

$

2nd generationbiofuels hit market.Cellulosicsconverted into biofuels greatly improves fuel efficiency, frees up cropland, alleviatesfood/fuel conflict, and diminishes carbon footprint

Assumption: Better use of freshwater.Most efficient way of increasing the efficiency of water use in agriculture is through increasing yields and requires extracting the maximum yield per drop.

Stronggrowth in investmentsin Africa'sagriculturalinfrastructur

Increasing knowledge in agriculture continuously optimizes input efficiency. Farmersmanage the landscape, and need technical support, access to capital, access to markets and information to build capacity for higher productivity and natural resource efficiency.Wide acceptance of existing technology.

Russia & Ukraine triple wheat yield via professionalizationof farming

3x

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Asian, Pacific waterefficiencydoubles2x

Doubling & tripling of yields Eco-footprint standards developed, spread More yields double Yield targets close to achievementRequired to be on track for a sustainable 2050 To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and ifpossible not use any more land foragriculture.

Brazil, China, CIS, India, improvedistributioninfrastructureand Africa is beginning that process Suchinfrastructure is key enabling factor for increasing farm production

Improved transportationinfrastructure helps sell African farm produce.Also reduces its previous import requirements, and makes a huge contribution to global agricultural production

Big riskTradeprotectionismcontinues to thwartincreased foodproduction

Much greater public sector research and development to increase crop yields – reversing trend in recent years

Big risk delayedMajor, rapid onset ofdrought, migration & resource wars in Africa

FOOD

Big risk avoidedMajordesertifications(in Africa, North China, US Southwest)

Big riskMajor foodshortages & famines

Big riskTemperaturerise abovelevels thatavoid furtherincrease in foodproduction

NBig risk"Greenrevolution" in food productionends

GreenRevolution

Big riskExtremechanges in rainfall due to global warminglimit yield increases

$Xsubsidies

With the successful completion of the WTO Doha round,large agriculturalsubsidies arediscontinued boosting production in LatinAmerica, EasternEurope and Africa

A rural renaissance, consequent resource efficiency and a system ofopen and fair trade ensure foodsecurity for large numbers of people

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Ecological footprint for agriculture (including land, water and energy efficiency) adopted, international biotechnologystandards in place

Big risk Majordesertifications(in Australia,Africa,North China, US Southwest)

Price paid for woodincorporatescarbonstored or lost by its use

Increased demand for building materials and other wood products, forest biomass for power generation and fuel drives greater production.

Planted forest carbon stock

Primary forest carbon stock

Natural forest carbon stock

41 Gt

152 Gt

207 Gt

71%

7%

12%

Increaseover 2010

Totalcarbonstock

Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests

Approx. Milestones - 2030

Planted forest carbon stock

Primary forest carbon stock

Natural forest carbon stock

49 Gt

164 Gt

213 Gt

104%

15%

15%

Increaseover 2010

Totalcarbonstock

Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests

Approx. Milestones - 2040

Planted forest carbon stock

Primary forest carbon stock

Natural forest carbon stock

24 Gt

142 Gt

185 Gt

Total carbon stock

Approx. Amount of Carbon Stock in World Forests Required to be on track

for sustainable 2050Shift productionfrom modified natural forest to planted forest by tripling planted forest yields by 2050

3x

By the end of the decade Major actions addressed by REDD+ begin to be implemented:- Provide financial incentives to local people forconservation and expansion of ecosystem services from primary and modified naturalforests.- Procedures for setting emissions levels- Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and verification- Processes to promote the participation ofindigenous peoples and local communities

REDD+in

Action

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Tropical deforestationhas been reducedsignificantly and planted productive areaincreased from 120 to 185 million hectares

Approachingvery lowcarbon

emissions

Wood prices incorporate carbon Deforestation reduced significantly Plentiful sustainable forest products and services

Planted forest carbon stock

Primary forest carbon stock

Natural forest carbon stock

30 Gt

147 Gt

203 Gt

25%

4%

10%

Increaseover 2010

Totalcarbonstock

Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests

Approx. Milestones - 2020

Carbonstoragebenefits ofwoodproductsarerecognizedin carbon markets

$

Increasingharvests from planted forests provide more forest products and biomass that can be used for production of carbon neutral fuels

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Carbon prices supportalternatives to extensiveforest clearing, and build institutional capacity in remote forest regions. Carbonprices will be near the breakeven point forcompeting agricultural resources.Markets for carbon and ecosystem services promote intact primary forests,protect habitat and biodiversity, and enhance carbon storage

Price

Payments for carbon and ecosystemservices enables increase in area of primary forests (both tropical and boreal)

Provide solid wood products, biomass for carbon neutral fuels production (i.e. cellulosic biofuels), habitat, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage (which comprise sustainable forest products)

580 million oven dry metric tons of forest biomass would be available for production of carbon neutral fuels

Total amount of carbon storage in wood products

22 million tons

E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings,furniture, etc.

Increaseover 2010 4%

Total amount of carbon storage in wood products

26 million tons

E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings,furniture, etc.

Increaseover 2010 24%

FOREST - Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion people by 2050 while reducing carbon emissions significantlyGlobal action on deforestation Big risk Dramatic

dieback and carbon releasefrom Amazonforest fromincreasedtemperature

Big riskMonocrops ofnew forestsdestroyed by destructiveinsects and diseases

Big risks delayedDrought-inducedtree mortality,infestations,logging, and firedouble CO2 emissions

Role of primary and modified forests as carbon banks driven home via media and primary education

Big risk Major fuel and building woodshortages

Modified forests are managed, but at a lower level of intensity, and used for various commercialpurposes – thus providing another carbon bank.

Environmentalsafety funds are established to support the restoration and maintenance of underlying bio-physicalsystems

Yield from planted forests increase through genetic improvements – a mix of traits (drought tolerance, insect resistance) and adaptation to different forest types and locations

Widespread urban forestsabsorb carbon, provideshade and wind protection, improve air quality

Total amount of carbon storage in wood products

28 million tons

E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings,furniture, etc.

Increaseover 2010 35 %

Forests approaching 30% coverage of land area

Possibly by 2020Ecosystemmarkets and eco-enterprises beginto thrive. In some cases, ecosystemservices become the most lucrativeinvestment option on the market

$services

$$

ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY - Maintain and restore

This will take time, but is required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Improved NATURAL LITERACY - Increasedknowledge and attention on ecosystem servicesA range of in-depth and comprehensive multi-year studies have deepened our understanding of the functioning of the full range of ecosystem services. Widespread media attention of such studies has contributed to a greater focus on the protection and enhancement of ecosystem services.

Natural literacy spreads Earth’s regenerative capacity improvesHabitats enlarged, enhanced and protectedRequired to be on track for a sustainable 2050Donor countries increase the investmentin rural communities in and aroundprotected areas to grow their economic base and reward biodiversity protection.This provides the kind of protection thatthe market can not provide alone

Drastically reduced for hunting and killing endangered species (for food, skins, medicines, etc), (e.g. rare frogs, turtles, and snakes to endangered fish and sea animals to bears and tigers, which are believed to have medicinal or aphrodisiacal applications)

Essential to protect some speciesFresh water

GreenproductsCultural

Clean air Sequestercarbon

Eco-systemServices

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Business, NGOs, governments agree on ecosystem valuationmethods includingvaluing the globalcommons (e.g. eco-services of oceans, forests, atmosphere, etc.

National parks and refuges Protected marine areas

Communitymanagement of protected areas

Protected private ecotourism sites

...or roughly equivalent institutions and outcomesSource: Global Footprint Network

This is our currentsituation

0.6

1.21.00.8

1.61.4

1.8

0.20.4

2.0By the early 2020s we'll need 2 planets. Redline is projected footprint beyondbiocapacity

Current overshoot beyondbiocapacity(approx. 40% of a planet)

2.2

1960 20201980 2000 2040

Numb

er of

plan

ets

For the past 25 years, humans haveexceeded global biocapacity Big risk

A disastrous 50% loss of species with unknownconsequences forhuman and environmentalprosperity

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Fair pricing ofecosystemservices N P

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Management of nutrients (nitrogen & phosphorous),water, soil, vegetation and ecosystem health is a common practice which improves resiliency and ensures the sustainability of the biosphere

Big riskLack of scientific ability to track species prevents risk assessment of death ofspecies and ecosystem collapse

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Seed banks and botanical gardensall over the worldwork closelytogether to preservemost of today's biodiversity

Sustainable management of habitatsRequired to be on track for a sustainable 2050Most natural habitats are protected to preserve biodiversity and allow natural adaptation to changing conditions (e.g. climate)

£$

Y

Warning

Mandatory standards are set within the OECD countries forenergy efficiency (buildings and appliances). This includeslimiting standby to 1w and specifically listing efficiencyrequirements in building codes.

Violation

Bullding energy codes for new buildings arestrictly enforced

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Bestagriculturetechnologyavailableworldwide

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Methods to ensure that carbon credits awarded for avoided deforestation are not simply traded off against less emission reductions from fossil fuels

CO2

$

Guaranteed

Total amount of carbon storage in wood products

E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings,furniture, etc.

Probably necessary to be on track to a sustainable 2050 Commitments to deep carbon reductions by industrializedcountries to create demand for REDD+ carbon credits.

CO2REDD+

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Yields of planted forests are increased through best practices such as enhanced management of vegetation and fertilization and better site selection and species match. Genetic improvements and remote sensing technologies for inventory and management also important. Remote sensing used to monitor forest loss, health, structure, and function. Sustainable forest management approach becomes the norm.

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Increase forestharvest from 1.7 billion cubic meters today to 2.7 billion cubic meters

Probably necessary for scenario to be "on track" for 2050A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basisDiscusses existing and potential globalchallenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or Nigeria.

MAJORECONOMIES

MEETING

(MEM)summit meets

often

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Freer trade in agricultural products, in order to maximize production of food and agricultural products on a global scale

One of several ways to implement a necessary ideaPrinciple of responsible (or sometimes called "pooled") sovereignty begins to take hold, as most governments actively realize how much of their national security requirements stretch beyond their own borders. Unlike traditional sovereignty where borders are sacrosanct and few have dared to interfere with another state's domestic matters, the principle of responsible sovereignty entails obligations and duties to other states as well as to one's own citizens. It suggests that states, in order to exercise responsibility,have to be accountable for how they treat their own people, must be accountable for the domestic and international actions that they take, and the effects that those have across borders

Necessary for scenario to be "on track" for 2050New governance systems are embedded at all levels.This includes new models ofeconomic governance,which underpin the pricing of externalities and strengthen the functioning of markets; a global price for carbon is firmly in place.

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Governments,investors, and people beginning to put social value (contribution to society and sustainability of products and processes) equal to "shareholder value"

socialvalue

shareholdervalue +

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Global price on carboninternalizesmajor costs of CO2 and other emissionsin

tern

al-

ized

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Externalities internalized and investors incorporate rapidly new accounting standards into risk and opportunity decision-making. These accounting changes enable companies to measure both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Energy Efficiency (Buildings and Appliances)- Implementation of mandatory minimum efficiency performance standards- Revisit international standards periodically to ensue continous improvement- No delays in legislation of strong regulations and enforcement is the most cost-effective policy Key Areas of International Collaboration:-Common standards set to discourage trade in sub efficient appliances.

Required to be on track for 2050 Carbon has a price - cap & tradeor carbon tax begin to transformelectric power generation Maybethrough a comprehensive treaty or perhapsa series of multilateral agreements

CO2

$

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 The United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) releases the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forestDegradation (REDD) report.Without REDD, the 2 degree C climate stabilization goal will not be met

REDD+

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Major collection of internationalagreements on climate and energyNot necessarily treaties, but at minimum bilateral and multilateral agreements

Chronic, infectious and mental diseases are better managed, allowing people to live healthier and longer lives. Healthcare access and affordability have become fairer at all levels from primary care to secondary and tertiary care

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2050

Eco

log

ical

Fo

otp

rin

t (#

of

Ear

ths)

In the business as usual scenario we will be using 2.3 Earths

2.5-

2-

1.5-

1-

0.5-

0- | | | | | |

With this set of pathways, we can decrease our over use of the Earth's regenerative capacity

We can decrease our overshoot of the Earth's regenerative capacity to 1.1 Earths by 2050

Source: Global Footprint Network

Planted forest carbon stock

Primary forest carbon stock

Natural forest carbon stock

59 Gt

175 Gt

220 Gt

146%

23%

19%

Increaseover 2010

Totalcarbonstock

Approx. Increase in Carbon Stock in World Forests

Approx. Milestones - 2050 Reduction of deforestationrates puts us well on the way to avoiding the cumulativerelease of up to 50 GtC by 2100

Estimatedcost ofreducingdeforestationrates by 50% by 2050 approx. U.S.$20 per ton

Double planted forest carbon stockto 59 Gt2x

3xIncreaseplantedforestharvest from800 million cubicmeters to 2.7 billion cubicmeters

FORESTS

Total amount of carbon storage in wood products (E.g. Global stock of carbon stored in wood in buildings, furniture, etc.)30 million tons, an Increase over 2010 of 44 %

Better management of primary forests sequesters carbon and protects biodiversity, water and additional ecosystem services

PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT

Most adults can now read and write

Most primary & secondary schoolchildren now in school most of year

World public health has learned to cope with diseases spread by climate change

Rapid, cheap worldwidecommunicationfor almost everybody

Abjectpovertyreduced to minimalamount

Agingpopulationis engaged in society

Customers no longer have to choose between ‘green’ products and the ones that meet their other consumer needs

Education and economicempowerment of femalesaccomplished in mostplaces

BASIC NEEDS OF ALL PEOPLE ARE MET with regards to food, clean water, sanitation, shelter and universal access to lifelong education.

2040s2030s2020s2010sGOVERNANCE

Greaterglobalcoordinationon energy,resources,and climatechange wellon the way.

Improvement and success in the governance pathcan be measuredby the degree to which humanity achieves its goals in the other sectorsof this dashboard.

Many technologies improvedefficiencies by a factor of 4 to 10, since 2000

By 2050 A world has been created whereby closed loop, circular principles are used for the management of natural, non-renewable materials

MATERIALS

Energy efficiency improvements in buildings, appliances, transport, industry and power generation represent the largest and least costly savings

Zero waste and recycling have become the manufacturing and operations standard in industry

Wastewaterconsidered and used as a resource

CO2 emissions, energy requirements and water usage are not constraints

4x6x10x

BUILDINGS

Less than 5 % buildings heated with fossil fuels

95 % of existing building stock uses zero net energy

Allappliancesmanufacturedare energy-efficient

Retrofittingof many buildings to be energy efficientwell on the way

NearZero

Net energy use

70% of people live in urban areas

ECONOMY

Almost 500 millionpeople in India movedinto middleclass

Almost 700 millionpeople in China movedinto middleclass

Global GDP approx.US$ 200 - 300 trillion

Relativelyfullemploymentall aroundthe world

Economic growth is decoupled from environmental and material consumption and re-coupled to sustainable economic development and meeting changing needs

True-value pricing has become standard for most economic transactions

Indices of success and progress redefined at national, corporate and individual levels take into account environmental and social factors

True

Price

2050 - MEASURES OF SUCCESS

Project member companiesAccenture, Alcoa, Allianz SE, ArcelorMittal SA, Duke Energy Corporation, E.ON AG, Eskom Holdings Limited, Evonik Industries AG, FALCKGroup, Fortum Corporation, GDF SUEZ, GrupoNueva SA, Holcim Ltd., Infosys TechnologiesLimited, Osaka Gas Co. Ltd., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Rio Tinto plc, Royal Philips Electronics NV, Sony Corporation, Storebrand ASA, Syngenta International AG, TheBoeing Company, The Procter & Gamble Company,The Tokyo Electric Power Company Inc., ToyotaMotor Corporation, Umicore, Vattenfall AB,Volkswagen AG, Weyerhaeuser Company

This mural is released in the name of the WBCSD. It is the result of an 18-month collaborative effort among representatives from twenty-nine member companies, supported by the WBCSD secretariat. Like other WBCSD projects, Vision 2050 has involved a broad range of stakeholders in locations around the world. Developed in close consultation with the project members and several other consultants/advisers, the mural was reviewed by all relevant project members to ensure a broad agreement with its principal views and perspectives. However, this does not mean that every member company necessarily endorses or agrees with every statement in the mural. Use and display of and reliance on the mural shall be at the discretion of the readers.

The content of the mural is aligned – as far as possible - with the content of the parallel Vision 2050 report. Perfect alignment is, however, neither possible or desired as the mural has its own characteristics. Viewers may wish to contact WBCSD for copies of a report.

2050 - MEASURES OF SUCCESSENERGY AND POWER

CO2 emissions reduced by approx.85% from 1990 levelsand global climateappears stable

Access to clean and low-carbonenergynearlyuniversalWorld invested an est.

$45 trillion US from2010 to today on CO2 mitigationEstimated to have been about 1.1% of globalGDP each year

Approx. 50 % ofglobal energyproduction now fromrenewables

Global emissions down to

14 gt CO2per year

Over 50% of CO2 abatement potential comes from efficiency technology

Costs ofadaptationto climatechangewidelyshared

over year 2000 levels Source: IEA Blue

Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2010-2050 (World wide)

UnitsTotal by 20501400800

1280120

4000560000150000

5200248003200

Coal-fired with CCSGas-fired with CCSNuclearHydroBiomass plantsWind-onshoreWind-offshoreGeothermalSolar PhotovoltaicConcentrated Solar

500 mw CCS plants500 mw CCS plants1000 mw nuclear plants5000 mw dams50 mw biomass plants4 mw wind turbines4 mw wind turbines100 mw geothermal units50 mw installations250 mw installations

Approx. Milestones for staying below 2oC (average global temperature)

Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2010-2020 (World wide)

Coal-fired with CCSGas-fired with CCSNuclearHydroBiomass plantsWind-onshoreWind-offshoreGeothermalSolar PhotovoltaicConcentrated Solar

105

802050

400005000

2002000

300

500 mw CCS plants500 mw CCS plants1000 mw nuclear plants5000 mw dams50 mw biomass plants4 mw wind turbines4 mw wind turbines100 mw geothermal units50 mw installations250 mw installations

UnitsTotal by 2020

Approx. Milestones for staying below 2oC (average global temperature)

Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built During 2020-2030 (World wide)

UnitsCoal-fired with CCSGas-fired with CCSNuclearHydroBiomass plantsWind-onshoreWind-offshoreGeothermalSolar PhotovoltaicConcentrated Solar

500 mw CCS plants500 mw CCS plants1000 mw nuclear plants5000 mw dams50 mw biomass plants4 mw wind turbines4 mw wind turbines100 mw geothermal units50 mw installations250 mw installations

2020-20301909530040900

8000020000

7005000600

Approx. Milestones for staying below 2oC (average global temperature)

AGRICULTURE

Agriculturalgreenhouse gas emissions reduced to 20% of 2008 levels

Land area devoted to agriculture has been slightly decreased on 2010 levels while production offood, fiber, animal feed and agricultural based biofuels has increased.

Doubling oftotalagriculturaloutput to 2050

In developing countries 96% of people are well fed

Water use in agriculture improves with irrigation efficiency close to 100%

2x

2x

Wheat productiondoubles World's second biggest crop in volume and represents the greatest challenge for reversing the trend of declining yield growth. Currently rate of yield gain in wheat has been fallingfaster than any other crop. New technologies, especially in Eastern Europe and Africa, reverse this decline

ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITY

Animal DNAbanks begin to rejuvenate somespecies

Biodiversityreservationsstabilizeloss of species

Zero-wasteworld values ecosystemservices and naturalresources

Seed banks havepreservedmuchbiodiversity

Condition of biodiversitystabilizing but still at significant risk as irreversible losses continue, although at a slower rate

Most toxic chemicalsstopped from enteringbiosphere

Fishspeciesabundancereturns

Coral reefs greatlydecimated,butdeteriorationhalts

Acidificationof oceans haltedthough still precarious

PhSeriousdepletion of soil through erosionbeginning to be reversed

Desertificationin many areas halted or reversed

Ozonedepletionratereversed

Amazonrainforestbasin appears to be recovering

Considerable global biodiversity has been lost in past 40 years but Global catastrophe so far avoided but lack of scientific ability to keep track of millions of species hampers realistic appraisal

Copyright 2010 World Business Council for Sustainable Development and R.E. Horn

Global fisheries protectedSystem of tradable fishing quotas or permits used internationally(each fishery in global oceans is limited to catch a certain size)

Bottomtrawlingon sea mountsoutlawed

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Fish farming (both freshwater and ocean species), and mariculture (algae and kelp) provide a sustainable means to satisfying global seafood needs. Wastes radically reduced. Escaped genetically modified fish problem fixed

QUOTA

$

Wide use of sustainableaquaculturepracticesreducespollution

Mainstreamlearnings from first experiment of zero-carbon, low waste buildings and communities

21 million tons

Big riskMajornuclearaccident

Increase yields for all major staple crops (rice, wheat, corn) in most regions.

WheatRice Corn

Big riskSoil degradationcontinues(erosion,salinization,nutrientdepletion)

World Business Council for Sustainable Development

PrecautionaryPrinciple

MOBILITY - Low carbon

Near zero road fatalities

MOBILITY

Almost all people will have access to safe, lowest emission and low carbon mobility

CO2 emissions have been reduced by about 30 % below 2005 levels

Costs of aviation biofuels become competitive with those of traditional jet fuel

Sustainable biofuels begin to be significant in shipping, at first in auxiliary engines and later for main engine propulsion. Biofuels and gas, hydrogen or methanol fuel cells are important. Onboard CO2 capture is in its nascent phase.

180-160-140-120-100-

80-60-50-40-20-0-

| | | | | | 2000 2020 2040 205020302010

Hydrogen

ElectricGasoline plug-in hybrid

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline hybrid

Ap

Source: Annual light-duty vehicle sales by technology type in IEA BLUE Map

Low carbon fuels and vehicles become a factor in the market after 2020

Sustainablebiofuelsincreasingto 30% of fuel used in aircraft

Nuclear power may come as source - not likely before 2040 because of technical / cost / safety and security reasons.

Many experimentalprojects for ship propulsion will materialize before2030 using wind /solar / waveenergy

Fleet planning / slow steaming (speed reduction), weather routing: all contributing to significant reduction of energy / hence cost reduction etc.Continuous trend in the coming decades will be increased holistic view on total transport chain performance (instead of focus of maximum performance of sub-elements in the chain)

Major initiatives to Integrate city & infrastructure planning begin. Cities:- begin to integrate transport systems and have a transport oriented planning focus- offer smart mobility to provide choice of most appropriate mode of transportation for each individual traffic situation- have adequate public transport in densely populated areas

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Transportation energyefficiency:- Mandatory efficiency standards;eventually harmonized globally athighest efficiency level- Incentives for new technologyother than increasing size, weightor power- Standards set for medium and heavy duty trucks (logistics, on-road efficiency)

Fossil-fuel use begins to dropR&D and more deployment for low carbon mobility Vehicles electric; air & ships using sustainable biofuels Rapid transition to renewable fuels Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Sustainable biofuels for aviation are fully tested and begin to be usedGovernments help to ensure - sufficient and steady biofuel supply through early incentives- aviation is allocated necessary share of biofuel supply despite competition with other forms of transportation- cost does not exceed petroleum-based jet fuel

Significant reduction in NOx / SOx / emissions to air from new and existing ships through legislative limitations and regulations that require special environmental areas (SECAs) (already implemented in Europe).SECAs restrict emissions from shipping.

2010s or early 2020sImplement 4 step approach for road safety1) Implement latest safetytechnology in all cars2) Implement integrated transport systems3) Separate mixed traffic 4) Adjust infrastructure around populated areas

Efficient inland river and canal transportation systems will receive more cargo from road based alternatives, and LNG-driven train barge systems can emerge in countries in the EU (first), then China & the US, then Russia / other countries.

Sustainable biofuel used for marine engines + fuel cells on gas/methanol begin to be used for auxiliary engines. Onboard CO2 capture and storage in early deployment phase.

Integrated city & infrastructure

planning: Cities now routinely use

systems like ITS (Intelligent

TransportationSystem) resulting

in reduced travel demand and a more efficient

traffic mix

Consumers have instantaneous, accurate, and transparent information to choose best option

Polar ice cap melting has resulted in shorter transport routes between Europe and Asia

Access to mobility is improvedfor the one billion people in ruralareas who lack it

R&Dacceleratesinnovation in sustaiinablebiofuels,electric vehiclesand alternativedrivetrains

Liberalization of the rail sector allows export of competence and technologies for both passenger and freight services

Big riskPeak oil brings high prices before transitionto renewables

Traffic control begins on certain sea routes, while the practice of ships returning empty from a voyage is phased out.

Algae-basedsustainablebiofuelsbegin to result in low netgreenhousegas

Wide use of sustainablebiofuelsnowstandard for aviation

Panama canalextensioncompleted (2015 +/-), the maximum breadth of ships increases to 49m (from 32,26m), and max length to 366m (from 249m).

49 meters

Hydrogenpoweredvehicles begin to factor in the marketplace

H Carbon and environmentalfootprints from shipping are significantly reduced through operational, policy, efficiency and decarbonizationinnovations, just like in the other mobility sectors

Noise from vehicles, rail and transport infrastructure has been significantly reduced. NOx and particulate emissions from vehicles have been almost eliminated NOx

Bestroute

Sustainable biofuels are the standard fuels for aviation, while experimentation with advanced technologies for generating and harnessing energy – from fuel cells and solar cells to innovative energy harvesting methods – have created new possibilities for airplane design

Required to be on track for a sustainable2050Internationalstandards for sustainablebiofuels are adopted, and monitoringsystems installed

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Integrated rail networks spread. Infrastructureinvestments keep up with growing demand of passenger andfreight transport

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050 Development and deployment of efficient internal combustion vehicles improve new-vehicle carbon intensity up to 30-40%, enabled by better policies and introduction of Electric Vehicles(EV)/ Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

Integrated urban planning, especially in the fast-growing cities, improves transport and allows for more choice among appropriate modes

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Vehicle users adopt more efficient driving behavior,stimulated through information campaigns

Required to be on track for a sustainable2050 Improvedenergyefficiency in shipping is achievedthrough holistic approaches to transport chain performance

• Intelligent TransportationSystem (ITs)connectsvehicles to each other and to infrastructure

Required to be on track for a sustainable 2050Policy makers and industry partner to speed up research into and deployment of alternative drivetrains and advancedbiofuels

Fuel efficiency improved for all modes. Alternativefuels - biofuels and esp. electricity and hydrogen - have reached high market shares worldwide."

High speed electric rail has become an attractive option of city to city travel in most developedcountries

Note: These fuel type proportions are illustrative, hypothetical, and highly dependent on the many assumptions made in the scenario from which they are taken.

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