Paris Agreement on Climate Change

International Climate Change and Energy Law, Spring semester 2016 Prof. Dr. Christina Voigt

In Paris, we have seen many revolutions.

The most beautiful, most peaceful revolution has been achieved, a climate revolution.

François Hollande, President of France

(Paris, 12 December 2015)

What happened in Paris?

• COP21 (and CMP 11, SBSTA 43, SBI 43; ADP 2.11…) 30.11.-12.12. 2015

• Fulfill the Durban mandate, South Africa, COP 17 in 2011, “to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties” to be adopted at COP 21 and implemented from 2020 onwards

• France as host nation was the «COP presidency» • 150 Heads of state and government

Earth to Paris

What is the result?

On 12.12.2015 the COP adopted a decision in which para 1 says:

«The Conference of the Parties…

1. Decides to adopt the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as contained in the annex;»

“Paris Outcome” = Decision plus Agreement

What is the Paris Agreement?

• A legally-binding treaty according to the VCLT • Comes into force 30 days after at least 55 Parties

to the Convention accounting for at least 55% of global GHG emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval..(Art. 21)

• Contains legally binding obligations (»shall») and provisions that are not legally binding («Inivited»/»Encouraged»/»Should»)

• Indications of legal bindingness: Final clauses, compliance mechanism

5 Must-know Facts

1. Goals: «well under 2 degrees», 1.5 degress, «zero net emissions»

2. NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions

3. Obligations for all – «diversified differentiation»

4. Enhanced Transparency Framework

5. «Ratcheting up»: dynamic, iterative processes (5 year cycles, stock-take) and principles (progression and highest possible ambition)

GOALS • Global temperature goal(s):

– «…holding the increase in global temperature to well below 2 degrees C … and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C» (Art. 2)

• Mid and long-term mitigation goals: – Global peaking asap (recognizing that this will take longer

for developing countries) and rapid reductions thereafter to achieve «a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals in the second half of this century» (Art. 3, so-called «net zero emission)

• Adaptation goal – «enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and

reducing vulnerability» (Art. 7)

• Finance goal: collective, quantified goal of developed countries from a floor of USD 100 billion per year (para 54)

Question

Analyse Article 4:

• Which legal obligations can you identify?

• Who has which obligation?

OBLIGATIONS FOR ALL • «Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive

nationally determined contributions» (Art. 4.2) • «Each Party shall pursue domestic measures, with the aim of

achieving the objectives of such contributions.» (Art. 4.2) • «… all Parties shall provide information necessary for clarity,

transparency and understanding…» (Art. 4.8) • «Each Party shall communicate a NDC every five years…» (Art. 4.9) • “ Each Party’s successive NDC will represent a progression beyond

current NDC and reflect its highest possible level of ambition.” (Art.4.3)

• «Parties shall account for their NDCs…In accounting, Parties shall promote environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency..» (Art. 4.13)

• «Each Party shall regularly provide information on national inventories and information necessary to track progress made in implemenating and achieving its NDC..» (Art. 13.7)

• «Each Party shall engage in adaptation planning… (Art. 7.1)

DYNAMISM

• NDCs every 5 years (Art. 4.9) • Progression and Highest possible ambition • Global stocktake to assess collective progress towards

achieving the purpose and long-term goals – every 5 years (Art. 14)

• First stock take in 2023, new round of NDCs in 2025, next stock take in 2028, next NDCs in 2030..

• Outcome of the stocktake shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support (Art. 14.3)

• Parties submit NDCs at least 9-12 months in advance

2020

1st NDC

2023

1st stocktake

2025

2nd NDC

2028

2nd stocktake

2030

3rd NDC

Highest possible ambition

5 year-»cycles»

TRANSPARENCY

• Establishment of an «enhanced transparency framework» for action and support

• With built-in flexibility

• Build on existing arrangements for reporting and review

• CMA to adopt «common modalities, procedures and guidelines» at its first session

Question

• How is the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities reflected in the agreement?

Diversified DIFFERENTIATION

• Most obligations apply to all countries • No bifurcated differentiation (no Annexes) • Agreement reflects «common but differentiated

responsibilities , in light of different national circumstances»

• Each Party’s NDC will represent a progression beyond current efforts and reflect its highest possible level of ambition (Art.4.3)

• Developed countries undertake absolute economy-wide targets, developing countries enhance their efforts over time and are encouraged to move towards economy-wide targets (Art.4.4)

Example of foursuccessive NDCs of adeveloping countryParty X

HIGHEST POSSIBLE AMBITION (content) How much needs to be done? Reflecting : - Responsibilities - Capabilites - Circumstances

TYPE OF TARGET (form) OVER TIME What needs to be done?

Economy-wide absolute reduction

targets

Economy-wide reduction or limitation

targets Enhanced efforts Strategies, plans

and actions

Figure 1: Level of effort and progression

For each successive NDC, a Party has an obligation of conduct, a duty of care, to

move upwards on its ambition level and towards

to the right, along the red progression graph;

developed countries should start at the upper right

side of the red graph and move upwards on their

level of ambition.

LDC & SIDs

Developing countries

Developed countries

HIGHEST POSSIBLE AMBITION (content) How much needs to be done? Reflecting Parties': - Responsibilities - Capabilites - Circumstances

TYPE OF TARGET (form) What needs to be done?

Economy-wide absolute reduction

targets

Economy-wide reduction or limitation

targets Enhanced efforts Strategies, plans

and actions

Figure 2: Differentiation Each Party's NDC will

reflect its highest possible amibition (y-axis) and

correspond to the types of targes set out in articles

4.4 and 4.6 (for LDCs and SIDS) (x-axis). Such

parameter-based determination of

mitigation efforts leads to more diversified

differentiation each time a successive NDC is being

communicated.

Some further details…

• Finance

• REDD+

• Loss and Damage

• Compliance

• Markets

• Human Rights

Finance (Art. 9)

• Developed countries shall provide financial resources to developing countries (4.2 UNFCCC)

• Other parties are encouraged to provide such support voluntarily

• As part of the global effort, developed countries should continue to take the lead in mobilizing climate finance from a wide variety of sources; progression

REDD+ (Art. 5.2)

• Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support the exisiting framework for REDD+

Loss and damage (Art. 8)

• Cooperation and facilitation to enhance understanding, action and support

• Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage continues

• «Agrees that article 8 of the agreement does not involve or provide a basis for any liablity or compensation» (para 52)

Compliance (Art. 15)

• Establishment of a mechanism to facilitate implementation of and compliance with the provision of the agreement

• Committee (expert-based, 12 members, while taking into account gender balance, para 103)

• Non-adversarial and non-punitive

• CMA to adopt modalities and procedures at 1st session

Markets (Art. 6)

• Element 1: Voluntary cooperative approaches that involve the use of internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs)

• Element 2: Market mechanism – By public and private entities

– Verified and certified emissions reductions

– Learning from experiences with emissions trading, CDM, JI

• Element 3: Non-market mechanism

Human Rights (Preamble)

• «…Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples, local communities, migrants, children, persons with disabilities and people in vulnerable situations and the right to development, as well as gender equality, empowerment of women and intergenerational equity,»

Questions

• 1. What can the Paris Agreement deliver – and how?

• 2. How effective will it be in holding temperature increases well below 2 degrees celsius? And how fair?

• 3. Is it historic?

Is it historic?

• 197 Parties of the UNFCCC adopted the PA

• Diversified differentiation

• Stronger transparency

• Strong legal form

• Buttom-up with international «pull», flexibility and dynamism

• Reflexive: Improves the capacity of Parties to learn about themselves and periodically take further actions

• More resilient, durable, effective

Some impressions

See for images

http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop21/enb/