pan atlantic sms group november 2013 omnibus poll result

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine 04101• 207-871-8622

www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP 52nd

OMNIBUS POLL

“The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion”

Issued December 10th, 2013

“Most Accurate Pollster on Maine’s 2010

Gubernatorial Race”

“Closest in predicting the actual results

of the Governor’s race and the 1st

Congressional District race in 2010”

“Maine’s Best Pollster 2008”2012 Elections:

“Most accurate polls on Presidential

and CD1 and CD2 elections.”

Table of Contents

2

I. Background…………………………...…………………………………………………………………….. 3

II. Methodology…………...…………………………………………...……………………………………… 4

III. Poll Results …………………………………...………...…………………………………………...…... 6

IV. Demographic Profile of Sample..……………………………………………………………………….. 29

The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll

2

• Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and consulting firm which is

currently in its 29th year of successful operation.

• This Omnibus Poll is the 52nd poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public policy,

business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues. Because we have conducted this poll on a frequent

basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a unique position to provide reliable benchmarking

on a range of important issues.

• Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll must identify the

source of information.

• All questions reported on herein are non-proprietary and were not commissioned by any party other

than Pan Atlantic SMS Group.

• For further information, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, at

(207) 871-8622 or by email at [email protected].

I. Background PA

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mailto:[email protected]

• The 52nd Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted between November 25th and November 30th,

2013. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest.

• A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 Maine residents was interviewed by telephone. Each of

Maine’s two Congressional Districts are represented by approximately half of the sample.

• To ensure a highly representative sample, a 20% cell phone sample was used.

• The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:

Are ages 18 and older

Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm

Are registered to vote in Maine and who said they are likely to vote in the November, 2014 elections.

• This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in-house interviewing center, by Pan Atlantic’s team of

experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were used. The sample used comprised a mix of land

and cell phones, and responses were weighted according to respondent age to better represent Maine’s age

segment distribution.

II. Methodology

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• It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals.

• The sample was stratified statewide based on the 2012 U.S. Census of Population and Housing data. The

sample size has statistical significance of ± 4.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that

if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey

within the ± 4.9 percent margin of error.

• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political

party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for each of the two CDs is ± 6.98 percent at the

95 percent confidence level.

• Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of public opinion at a singular point in

time.

II. Methodology

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POLL RESULTS 6


ECONOMY 7


[Options were rotated; n=400] 8

Mainers are showing the highest level of confidence in the

direction of the State since 2006 (38.9% “Right direction”)


Aug. '05 Mar. '06 July '06 May '07 Sept. '07 June '08 Apr. '09 Oct. '09 May '10 May '11 Mar. '13 Nov. '13

Right Direction 21.5% 41.1% 40.4% 31.0% 37.3% 23.0% 32.0% 34.2% 28.3% 29.4% 37.7% 38.9%

Wrong Direction 60.0% 41.6% 41.6% 51.0% 48.3% 59.8% 49.8% 51.1% 50.8% 57.1% 46.9% 48.5%

Don't know 18.5% 17.2% 18.0% 18.0% 14.5% 17.3% 18.3% 14.7% 21.0% 13.5% 15.4% 12.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Male respondents are much more

likely to feel that the state is

headed in the right direction

(45.0% of male respondents versus

33.2% of female respondents)

Mainers with lower levels of

household income have a less

favorable view of the State’s

direction (<$50k, 30.8% right

direction vs. 45.0% of those

earning $50k+)

Republicans (59.3%) are more

favorable regarding the direction

of the State than Democrats

(27.6%) and Independents

(31.5%).

In general, do you think that the State of Maine is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

What do you think is the most important issue facing the State of Maine today?

Jobs/Unemployment is far and away the most pressing

issue for Mainers. [Unaided; n=400] 9


3.1%

13.0%

1.6%

4.2%

5.3%

2.5%

2.7%

5.4%

12.7%

13.3%

36.2%

Unsure

Other

Cost of living

High level of taxes

Balancing the state budget

Crime/drugs/violence

Need for tax reform

Education

Economy in general

Accessibility/Cost of health care

Jobs/Unemployment

The importance of Jobs/Unemployment

as an issue has increased since Spring

2013 from 27.0% to 36.2%.

Accessibility/Cost of health care has

become the top issue for 13.3% of

Mainers, up from 7.0% in March, 2013.

Balancing the state budget has declined

from being the top issue of 11.0% of Mainers

in March to 5.3% in November, 2013.

[n=400] 10

More than half of Mainers expect that their household

economic situation will stay stagnant in 2014.


Compared to 2013, for the year 2014, do you believe that your household economic situation will:

Improve, 20.6%

Stay the same, 52.9% Worsen, 24.5%

Unsure/ Other, 2.1%

Republicans and Independents are

more pessimistic than Democrats

about their household economic

situation in 2014. A third (33.4%) of

Republicans and 27.3% of

Independents expect their household

economic situation to worsen,

compared to 13.6% of Democrats.

[n=400] 11


In 2013, 42.0% of Mainers plan to spend “less” on holiday gifts

than in 2012, while 5.4% intend to spend “more” and 51.9%

will spend “about the same.”

More, 5.4%

About the same, 51.9%

Less, 42.0%

Don't know, 0.7%

Thinking about the upcoming holiday season, do you plan to spend more, less or about the same as you did last year on holiday gifts?

Younger respondents are less likely to report plans to cut back on Christmas spending. Only 32.8% of respondents ages 18-34 plan on spending less on holiday gifts this year, compared to 45.1% of those ages 35 and up.

NATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY 12


[Options rotated; n=400] 13


Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Obama is handling his job?

59.8% of Mainers disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, a

7.3 point increase in disapproval levels since March, 2013, while 36.2%

approve.

Disapprove59.8% Approve

36.2%

Unsure/No answer

4.0%

9.6%, Republicans (Decline from 16.8% in March)

58.9%, Democrats (Decline from 73.5% in March)

37.2%, Independents (Decline from 40.3% in March)

Approval by Political Affiliation

[n=400] 14


Did you support or oppose Congress recently shutting down major activities of the Federal Government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place?

Mainers overwhelmingly oppose October’s

Federal Government shutdown.

18.6% 74.3% 7.2%

Support

Oppose

Don't Know

Although the shutdown was unpopular among all demographics tested, only 54.5% of Republicans

opposed the shutdown, compared to 86.0% of Democrats and 80.4% of Independents.

Statement A45.4%

Statement B50.3%

Don't know4.3%



I am going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I’d like to know which one comes closer to your point of view…

A slight majority (50.3%) of Mainers feel that

government is doing too many things that are better

left to business and individuals.

Statement A: Federal, State, and Local Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of regular people. Statement B: Government is doing too many things that are better left to businesses and individuals.

There is a sizeable gap on this question

between the responses of those with and

those without children under 18 living in the

household. Those with children support

Statement B by a margin of 55.1%-39.8%,

while those without children support

Statement A by 49.1%-47.1%.

MAINE PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES 16


[n=400] 17


“I’m going to read you the names of some people involved in the public life of Maine… For each person, please tell me if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of them. If you aren’t familiar with that person, just say so…”

Senator Susan Collins continues to have the highest favorability level

among several major Maine politicians / political figures (tested).

Senator Susan CollinsCongressman Mike

MichaudGovernor Paul Lepage

Candidate for Governor Eliot Cutler

Favorable 78.5% 55.0% 43.1% 38.5%

Unfavorable 19.0% 30.0% 54.5% 27.3%

Unsure/Not familiar 2.5% 15.0% 2.4% 34.2%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

March:

74.7%

March:

60.8%

March:

46.9% March:

42.4%

[n=400] 18

Highlights

• Senator Collins has an overall favorability level of 78.5%.

• Although both have declined in favorability levels, Representative Mike Michaud (55.0%)

continues to hold a strong lead in favorability over Governor Paul LePage (43.1%), and also

Eliot Cutler (38.5%).

• Rep. Michaud’s favorability is higher in his own district – 57.9% in CD2 vs. 52.2% in CD1, though

this 5.7 percentage point gap is much smaller than the gap of 18.1 percentage points recorded

in the Pan Atlantic March 2013 Omnibus Poll™.

• Seven in ten Republicans (71.2%) have a favorable opinion of Gov. Paul LePage, compared to

20.3% of Democrats and 40.1% of Independents. Gov. LePage’s support among Republicans

has increased since March, while his support among Democrats and Independents has decreased.

• Gov. LePage has a higher favorability level in District 2 than in District 1 (48.4% vs. 37.9%).

Males (50.9%) also view him more favorably than females (35.7%).

• Eliot Cutler (I) has an overall favorability level of 38.5%. However, 34.2% are not familiar with

or are unsure of their opinion of gubernatorial candidate Cutler.


35.0% 34.2%

16.8%

6.8%

2.3% 1.8%

1.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Would vote for Are leaning towards voting for

Mike

Michaud

Paul

LePage

Eliot

Cutler

Don’t Know /

Refused

22.8%

33.5%

25.6%

18.1%



Mainers will vote for Governor in the November, 2014 elections. Assuming the candidates were Independent Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, and Democrat Mike Michaud, who would you vote for? Among those candidates, which one are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were today? (Choices were rotated.) A follow up question was asked of those who said “don’t know”—”Which candidate are you leaning towards voting for if the elections were held today?”

Among likely candidates for the 2014 gubernatorial election, Mike

Michaud holds a small advantage of 1.3 percentage points over Paul

LePage

37.3% Totals: 36.0% 18.3% 8.5%

Maine Voter Preferences Among Mike Michaud, Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler

Spring,

2013

Spring,

2013

Spring,

2013

Spring,

2013

*Mike Michaud had not announced his candidacy at the time of our Spring poll.

Total Vote Spring ‘13

[n=400] 20

Highlights

• At the time of the Pan Atlantic Spring 2013 Omnibus Poll™, Mike Michaud (22.8%) had not yet

announced his candidacy.

• Since Mike Michaud’s announcement that he is a candidate, his polling numbers have increased

by 14.5 percentage points, while Eliot Cutler’s have declined by 7.3 percentage points. Michaud

has also picked up significant support from the “undecided” segment (was 18.1% in March

2013, and is now 8.4%)


Michaud

36.9%



Among the likely candidates for the 2014 gubernatorial election,

Mike Michaud holds a small advantage over Paul LePage

Michaud

36.2%

Respondents of French or

French-Canadian Descent

N=58

LePage

50.0%

Cutler

13.8%

Michaud

37.7%

Respondents of Non-French or

Non-French-Canadian Descent

N=342

LePage

33.6%

Cutler

19.0%

Don’t

Know

9.6%

Congressional District 1

N=203

LePage

33.5%

Cutler

18.7%

Michaud

37.6%

Congressional District 2

N=197

LePage

39.1%

Cutler

17.3%

Don’t

Know

6.1%

Don’t

Know

10.8%

Michaud

43.7%

Female Respondents

N=206

LePage

28.2%

Cutler

18.4%

Michaud

30.4%

Male Respondents

N=194

LePage

44.3%

Cutler

18.6%

Don’t

Know

6.7%

Don’t

Know

9.7%





Mike Michaud is polling strongest among Independent voters

(34.7% vs. 26.4% - LePage and 23.6% - Cutler).

Michaud

56.4%

Democrat

N=133

LePage

17.3%

Cutler

21.1%

Don’t

Know

5.3%

Michaud

34.7%

Independent

N=144

LePage

26.4%

Cutler

23.6%

Don’t

Know

15.3% Michaud

19.0%

Republican

N=116

LePage

67.2%

Cutler

10.3%

Don’t

Know

3.4%

23

46.7%

22.1%

15.6%

5.8%

10.4%

13.7%

6.9%

20.8%

34.1%

12.0%

17.7%

14.7%

26.4%

24.1%

9.9%

2.2%

4.9%

12.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Paul LePage

Mike Michaud

Eliot Cutler

Likelihood to Consider Voting for Gubernatorial Candidates

Highly unlikely Somewhat unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Somewhat likely Very likely Don't know

Gov. Paul LePage appears to be the most polarizing figure of the three

candidates in the gubernatorial election – 52.5% would not consider voting

for him vs. 32.5% (Mike Michaud) and 29.2% (Eliot Cutler).

Now, I’d like to ask you a slightly different question. Regardless of who you are now supporting in

the general election for Governor, I’d like you to tell me whether you would or would not consider

voting for each of the following candidates on a scale of 1-5, where 1=Highly Unlikely and 5=Very

Likely.


[Options rotated; n=400]

• Of the 52.5% unlikely to consider voting for Governor LePage, 46.7% said “highly unlikely.”

I



Recently, Congressman Mike Michaud, who is running for Governor, came out as a gay man. In selecting your choice of candidate for Governor in the 2014 elections, will his sexual orientation factor into your decision in a positive way, negative way, or does it not matter?

The vast majority of respondents indicate that Mike Michaud’s recent announcement

regarding his sexual orientation will not influence their vote in the 2014 gubernatorial

elections – only 9.3% said it would influence them in a negative way.

Positive way, 3.9%

Negative

way, 9.3%

Does not matter, 86.2%

Don't know, 0.6%

20.6% of Republicans and 13.6% of

respondents of French or French-

Canadian descent indicate that Rep.

Michaud’s sexuality would factor into

their decision in an negative way.

Respondents from Congressional

District 2 are more likely to view

Rep. Michaud’s announcement as a

negative factor – 13.5% vs. 5.3%

of respondents in District 1.

25

Two-thirds (67.9%) of Michaud and Cutler supporters (combined)

would consider voting for a second-choice candidate in order to defeat

Gov. Paul LePage.

Let’s assume that as Election Day, 2014 approaches, your preferred candidate for governor is polling significantly behind the other two major candidates. In those circumstances, would you consider voting for your second choice candidate in order to increase the likelihood of defeating Governor Paul LePage? (Question asked only of Cutler and Michaud voters/leaners.)


[Asked of those supporting or leaning towards Michaud or Cutler; n=207]

Yes, 67.9%

No, 27.4%

“I would support Paul LePage”

1.4% Don't know, 3.2%

A strong majority of supporters of both

Eliot Cutler and Mike Michaud say they

would consider voting for another

candidate in order to increase the

likelihood of defeating Governor LePage.

However, Rep. Michaud’s supporters

(70.7%) appear to be somewhat more

willing than Eliot Cutler’s (62.2%) to

strategically switch their votes.

Somewhat

15.0%

Somewhat

26.5%

Strongly 36.8%

Strongly 17.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Disapprove overall

Approve overall Don't know / Refused

Somewhat

21.1%

Somewhat

28.3%

Strongly31.8%

Strongly15.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Disapprove overall

Approve overall Don't know / Refused

Somewhat

15.0%

Somewhat

26.5%

Strongly36.8%

Strongly 17.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Disapprove overall

Approve overall

Don't know / Refused



Governor Paul LePage has been in office for almost three years. Do you approve or disapprove of his job performance? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Governor LePage’s job approval ratings – 46.6% approve and

52.2% disapprove – have remained very consistent since 2012.

Approval of Job Performance of

Governor LePage – March 2013

51.8%


Governor LePage – Oct. 2012

4.5%

52.9%

43.4%

1.2%

43.8%

52.2%

46.6%

3.7%


Governor LePage – November 2013

• 70.9% of Republicans approve, 45.0% of Independents, and 24.8% of Democrats.

50.4%

15.3%8.3% 7.4% 6.9% 6.6% 5.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Don't Know / Other

Peter Vigue, CEO of Cianbro

Peter Mills, Director, Maine

Turnpike Authority

Phil Harriman, Former State

Senator

Carol Weston, Fomer State

Senator

Bruce Poliquin, Fomer State

Treasurer

Roger Katz, State Senator

27


If a Republican were going to challenge Governor LePage in a primary, which of the following would you most like to see? (Question asked of Republican and Independent voters only – n=261)

Peter Vigue would be the top choice among potential challengers to Governor Paul

LePage in the event of a Republican primary. However, Republicans have not unified

behind any single alternate candidate. (Candidate choices were provided.)

Peter Vigue’s support is strongest among male respondents (22.0% vs. 8.6% of

females) and among those whose household income is over $50,000 (20.5% vs.

12.2% of those earning less than $50,000).

28

Mainers are divided on the question of which of their elected set of

representatives is doing the most to help the state get ahead.


From a policy perspective, who do you think is doing the most to help the state get ahead?

Legislative leaders in the state capital,

23.1%

Governor Paul LePage, 32.8%

Our congressional delegation (US Senators and members of Congress),

26.6%

Don't know, 17.5%

Republicans are more likely to feel

that Gov. Paul LePage is doing the

most to help the state (54.9%,

compared to 17.3% of Democrats

and 28.0% of Independents.

Democrats feel that legislative

leaders in the state capital (30.3%)

and the state’s congressional

delegation (33.3%) are doing the

most, compared to Republicans

(16.3%, 16.9%) and Independents

(22.3%, 28.9%).


Statement A

45.3%



The most recent legislature passed a bill to expand MaineCare to 70,000 Maine families that do not have health care coverage. The Governor, in turn, vetoed the bill, saying that we couldn’t afford the expense. Whose position aligns more closely to your own?

A small majority of Mainers (5.3% margin) feel that the legislature

was correct to attempt to expand MaineCare coverage.

Statement B: The legislature was correct that MaineCare coverage should be provided to 70,000 additional families.

Statement B

50.6%

Don’t know

4.1%

Statement A: The governor was correct to veto because we cannot afford the expense.

Responses to this question broke

down along party lines—73.2% of

Republicans agree with Statement

A, while 76.1% of Democrats agree

with Statement B.

By a margin of 57.2% to

37.2%, female respondents

were much more likely to agree

with Statement B than male

respondents.

Access to Dental Care in Maine

HEALTHCARE

31

A very strong majority of Mainers (84.5%) support the authorization

of mid-level dental providers. Only 11.4% oppose this measure.


The state legislature is currently considering a law that would authorize a dental provider, similar to a physician’s assistant. Under the supervision of a dentist, the provider could provide quality care in places like schools and nursing homes, as well as allow dentists to care for more people in rural areas. Would you support or oppose authorizing this kind of provider?

Support, 84.5%

Oppose, 11.4%

Don't know, 4.1%

Support is particularly strong among

younger respondents (93.8% of

those ages 18-34 vs. 81.4% of those

ages 35 and older).


*Please note – Pan Atlantic SMS Group has conducted research work in the past for the Pew Trusts

on this issue. These two questions were not commissioned by Pew Trusts or any other source.

32



When the issue is framed as a reduction in government regulation,

eliminating the prohibition on mid-level dental providers is supported

by 83.8% of Mainers.

Support 83.8%

Oppose 12.1%

Don’t know 4.0%

Currently, state regulations prohibit dentists from hiring providers similar to a physician’s assistant or a nurse practitioner. Some dentists don’t want to lift these regulations because they feel that it would hurt their business. Other dentists think doing so will allow them to treat more low-income patients. Do you oppose or support eliminating these government regulations, leaving it to individual dentists whether to hire this kind of provider?

Support for eliminating the government prohibition on mid-level dental providers is strong across all three political groups—Democrats 79.8%, Republicans 83.5%, and Independents 88.2%.

*Please note – Pan Atlantic SMS Group has conducted research work in the past for the Pew Trusts

on this issue. These two questions were not commissioned by Pew Trusts or any other source.

POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA 33


34

Poll Demographic Data


CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

CD1 50.0%

CD2 50.0%

POLITICAL AFFILIATION

Democrats 32.5%

Republicans 29.5%

Independents / Unenrolled 36.3%

Other 1.3%

Refused 0.5%

AGE

18 to 34 16.0%

35 to 54 47.5%

55+ 36.5%

GENDER

Female 51.0%

Male 49.0%

2012 HOUSEHOLD INCOME

$50,000 or less 41.5%

$50,000 to <$75,000 20.8%

$75,000 or more 29.5%

Prefer not to answer 8.3%

Note: The above figures show the sample demographics prior to weighting. Survey

responses were weighted to better represent Maine’s age distribution.

6 City Center, Suite 200, Portland, Maine www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

207.871.8622

“Most Accurate Pollster on Maine’s 2010

Gubernatorial Race”

“Closest in predicting the actual results

of the Governor’s race and the 1st

Congressional District race in 2010”

“Maine’s Best Pollster 2008”2012 Elections:

“Most accurate polls on Presidential

and CD1 and CD2 elections.”

pan atlantic sms group november 2013 omnibus poll result

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