PAFPAF 101101

"Spoonfeeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon." 

~EM Forster

Module 4, Lecture 6

Class Agenda

AnnouncementsCompetition DebriefingAssignment for Next Class

Pssst…PAY ATTENTION!Community Service 101

Community Service Hours Due BY Monday, April 20th!

You can LOSE up to 35 points on module 5 if hours are not completed (Lose 10 points for each day it is late).

Sites must be approved by Nick (ntfletch@syr.edu) if your site was denied the first time

7.5 Change

The article can be on your societal category, or your problem.

Competition Points

As of 3/30/2015

WinnersWinners

Group # Points

14 26

17 24

4 23

13 22

15 22

1 21

2 20

8 20

12 20

16 20

6 19

7 19

18 19

3 18

9 18

10 17

11 17

5 16Losers

Competition Results

Groups 5 and 11 did not complete the competition, so they do not receive points.Group 13/16 is the winner and each group received 5 points!All other groups received 3 points.

Competition Debriefing Exercises

Now get ready for more points!

Attacks receive 1-3 points awarded by Coplin

Things to remember

Take notes today to help with your moduleGroups who are called on should find as many errors as possibleChoose 2 people to represent your group – DIFFERENT from last competition!

Module 4 DebriefingInstructions

- When your group number is called choose 2 representatives to stand up and answer the questions (can’t be the same people as the M3 Competition)

- Confer with your groups quietly so that you don’t give away the answers to other groups.

Module 4 Competition

Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University, in Syracuse, New York is too high.

Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

Data

Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

School Year First Year Drop Out Rate

2010-2011 7.6%

2011-2012 8.3%

2012-2013 9.9%

2013-2014e 9.1%

State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates

Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees.

Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid

Exercise 7.2A

State your societal problem here, (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates

Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees.

Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Office of Financial Aid

Exercise 7.2A Bullet 1: Not a societal problem. Missing too much/too little qualifier.

Bullet 2: Correct

Bullet 3: Correct

Exercise 7.2 B and 7.3List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences.

• List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue• Rating (1-3): 2• Justification for rating: SU is always

looking for more money.

• List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid • Rating (1-3): 1• Justification for rating: This will not cost a

lot.

Exercise 7.2 B and 7.3List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences.

• List and explain a benefit here: SU will increase revenue• Rating (1-3): 2• Justification for rating: SU is always

looking for more money.

• List and explain a cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid • Rating (1-3): 1• Justification for rating: This will not cost a

lot.

Problem 1: Most obvious benefit not listed – The dropout rate will decrease.

Problem 2: Incorrect justification. Should justify WHY you chose the rating (1, 2, 3) rather than why the benefit or cost is listed.

Problem 3: Same as Problem 2. Doesn’t justify rating. Also, this justification is incorrect because more spending more money would cost more.

Exercise 8.1BProvide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8.

Drop Out Rate

Time Period Number of [Variable]

Source or Rationale for estimation

2011 7.6% Professor Coplin

2012 8.3% Professor Coplin

2013 9.9% Professor Coplin

2014 9.1% Professor Coplin

Exercise 8.1BProvide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8.

Drop Out Rate

Time Period Number of [Variable]

Source or Rationale for estimation

2011 7.6% Professor Coplin

2012 8.3% Professor Coplin

2013 9.9% Professor Coplin

2014 9.1% Professor Coplin

Problem 1: Should be in academic years and indicate which years are estimate.

Problem 2: Incomplete title. Should say: Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University (2011-2014)

Problem 4: Incorrect source. Should be: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

Problem 3: No specific variable within the brackets. Should be: Percentage of Drop Outs

Exercise 8.2AA. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition.

Write the percent change here: -8.1%

Show the original formula and your calculations here:[(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change[(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1%

School Year Drop Out Rate

2010-2011 7.6%

2011-2012 8.3%

2012-2013 9.9%

2013-2014e 9.1%

Exercise 8.2AA. Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition.

Write the percent change here: -8.1%

Show the original formula and your calculations here:[(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change[(9.1-9.9)/9.9]x100 = -8.1%

School Year Drop Out Rate

2010-2011 7.6%

2011-2012 8.3%

2012-2013 9.9%

2013-2014e 9.1%

Problem 1: Incorrect calculation. Uses data points for the last two years instead of the first two years.

Correct Calculation: [(8.3 – 7.6) / 7.6] X 100 = 9.2%

Exercise 8.3State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years.

State what three years you set your benchmark for here:• First year: 2014-2015• Second year: 2015-2016• Third year: 2016-2017

Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

Exercise 8.3State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly, indicate why you have chosen those years.

State what three years you set your benchmark for here:• First year: 2014-2015• Second year: 2015-2016• Third year: 2016-2017

Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

Bullet 2: Poor justification. Should talk about the expected rapidness/slowness of the policy’s effect and possibly how the years will show how steadily/dramatically changes will occur.

Bullet 1: Correct.

Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3.

Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3.

Incorrect title. Historical and Forecast Graph for Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: 2010-2017f

No source

Y-axis should be more descriptive: Percentage of Drop Outs OR Drop Out Rate

X-axis title should say “Academic Years”

Data points should have numerical values above them.

Exercise 8.4 (Justification)

Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here:

The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows a cyclical pattern of increases and decreases in the dropout rate.

Exercise 8.4 (Justification)

Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here:

The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows a cyclical pattern of increases and decreases in the dropout rate.

Correct: Forecast generally follow the same pattern as the historical data UNLESS a special event or condition occurs that will affect the forecast OR the trend approaches an outer limit.

Helpful Hints

Be sure to justify the rating (1, 2, 3) you give the benefit or cost rather than why the benefit or cost is listed.Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented.Label forecasted and estimated data points!Use the Maxwell Manual and follow directions on how to do a graph, but could vary on the computer software you are using.Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be ameliorated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

For Next Class

Complete 8.2 to 8.4 if you know what is good for youModule 4 due on Friday, 4/3Community Service forms due 4/20

http://classes.maxwell.syr.edu/paf101