owl news monday introduction welcome i’m chitto
TRANSCRIPT
OWL NEWSMONDAY
INTRODUCTION
Welcome I’m chitto
HINDI CHINI HINDI CHINI BHAI BHAIBHAI BHAI
HINDI CHINI HINDI CHINI BHAI BHAIBHAI BHAI
SCOPESCOPE• PART I - GEO-POLITICAL/STRATEGIC
IMPORTANCE OF CHINA
• PART II -CHINESE ECONOMY
• PART III - CHINA’S ARMED FORCES
• PART IV - FOREIGN RELATIONS
• PART V - CHINA IN THE YEAR 2010
PART I
An ancient Chinese missionary student is supposed to have lamented
“Chinese
history
is rem
ote,
obscure
and monotonous, w
orst of
all, there
is too m
uch of it
”
LOCATION AND SIZE
• CHINA LIES BETWEEN
– LONGITUDE 78º 08´ E AND 135º 05´ E
– LATITUDE 18º 09´ N AND 53º 34´ N
LOCATION AND SIZE
• THE LANDMASS
– GENERALLY SLOPES FROM WEST TO EAST
– ELEVATION VARYING FROM 8000 M ABOVE SEA LEVEL TO 150 M BELOW SEA LEVEL
LOCATION AND SIZE
• SIZE
– THIRD LARGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD AFTER RUSSIA AND CANADA
– LARGEST IN ASIA, WITH AN AREA OF 9,562,904 SQUARE KM
POPULATION
• MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY IN THE
WORLD
• APPROXIMATELY 1.2 BILLION
PEOPLE
POPULATION
• 93.3% POPULATION IS HAN CHINESE
• BALANCE A MIX OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES
RELIGION AND LANGUAGE
• MOST IMPORTANT RELIGIONS ARE:-
– CONFUCIANISM
– TAOISM
– BUDDHISM
– MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS
RELIGION AND LANGUAGE
• MAIN LANGUAGE IS MANDARIN
• LITERACY RATE 85 %
DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN
• DENSITY-107 PER SQUARE KM
• DISTRIBUTION IS UNEVEN
• POPULATION CROWDED INTO 45% OF THE LAND
DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN
• PROVINCES LIKE JIANG HAVE DENSITY OF 2000 PER SQUARE KM
• URBAN POPULATION IS 35% OF THE TOTAL
CHINESE CIVILISATION
• ORIGINATED IN AREA OF YELLOW
RIVER
• CHANGS STARTED DYNASTIC RULE AND
CONTINUED TO RULE TILL AROUND 214
B C
CHINESE CIVILISATION
• CHANGS OVERTHROWN BY ZHOU
DYNASTY
• ZHOU DYNASTY FOLLOWED BY QUIN
DYNASTY
CHINESE CIVILISATION
• QUIN DYNASTY FOLLOWED BY HANS & SONGS
• FINALLY MONGOLS RULED FROM 1279 AD TO 1368 AD
• MING DYNASTY TOOK THE REINS IN 1368 AD
CHINESE CIVILISATION
• OCCUPATION OF CHINA BY MANCHUS IN 1688
• MANCHU EMPIRE BEGAN TO CRUMBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY
DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE
• POLICY OF ISOLATION BEGAN TO BREAKDOWN
• CHINA LAGGED BEHIND
• SPREAD OF CHRISTIANITY UNDERMINED RELIGIOUS UNITY
DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE
• OPIUM WARS FROM 1839 - 42 AND 1856-60 LOST BY CHINESE
• FORFEITED HONG KONG TO BRITISH
DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE
• COMPLETE COLONISATION AVERTED
• NUMBER OF PORTS OPENED
DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE
• CHINESE SLIDE CONTINUED
• LOSSES IN WARS, WITH FRANCE AND BRITAIN, JAPAN, RUSSIA AND US
• MOUNTING DISSATISFACTION PRECIPITATED ANOTHER UPRISING IN 1900
DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE
• REVOLUTIONISTS IN 1911 OVERTHREW THE CHING REGIME
• THIS MADE CHINA TECHNICALLY A REPUBLIC
MODERN CHINA
• POLITICAL HISTORY OF REPUBLIC’S FIRST YEAR WAS TUMULTUOUS
• CIVIL WAR BROKE OUT IN 1917
• IN 1926, CHIANG-KAI-SHEK, OVERTHREW THE GOVERNMENT
MODERN CHINA
• COMMUNISTS ENGINEERED A COUP AGAINST CHIANG-KAI-SHEK IN DECEMBER 1936
• IN JANUARY 1949 BEIJING TAKEN OVER BY COMMUNISTS
• CHIANG AND HIS NATIONALISTS FLED TO TAIWAN
MODERN CHINA
• CHIANG PROCLAIMED TAIPEI AS THE TEMPORARY CAPITAL
• COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT CONSOLIDATED ON THE MAINLAND BY 1ST OCTOBER 1949
• RECOGNISED BY USSR, GREAT BRITAIN AND INDIA
COMMUNIST RULE UNDER MAO
• CULTURAL REVOLUTION
• HUNDRED FLOWERS MOVEMENT
• GREAT LEAP FORWARD
ERA OF DENG XIAO PING
• EMERGENCE FROM THE BAMBOO CURTAIN
OWL NEWSMONDAY
CULTURAL AND SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENT
CULTURE
• PROUD OF CULTURAL ANTECEDENTS
• CONSIDER CHINA CENTRE OF WORLD
• UNITY OF CHINA - AN ACHIEVEMENT
MODERN CHINESE CULTURE
• RISE OF MAO TSE TUNG
• ABOLITION OF THE CLASS SYSTEM
• ESTABLISHMENT OF COMMUNISM
• THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION
MODERN CHINESE CULTURE
• CHINESE TRADITIONAL THOUGHTS CENTRED AROUND TWO ANCIENT CUSTOMS
– TRANSFERENCE OF GODS INTO HUMAN BEINGS
– THE BELIEF THAT A PERSON LIVES THROUGH HIS DESCENDANTS
CUSTOMS
• CONCUBINAGE AND POLYGAMY
• PATRIARCHIAL FAMILY SET UP
• HIERARCHICAL SOCIETY
ART
• POETRY WAS PRODUCED EN-MASS
• PAINTINGS
• JADE ARTISTRY
• POTTERY
OWL NEWSMONDAY
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
• EURASIA HAS THE WORLD’S SIX
LARGEST ECONOMIES AND MILITARY
SPENDERS
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
• CHINA, RUSSIA, INDIA AND SE ASIA ARE IN THIS REGION
GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
• THE REGION ACCOUNTS FOR
– 75% OF THE WORLD POPULATION
– 60% OF THE WORLD’S GNP
– 75% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY RESOURCES
OWL NEWSMONDAY
ASSETS
• LARGE LANDMASS
• VAST MANPOWER RESOURCES AND CHEAP LABOUR
• ABUNDANT NATURAL RESOURCES
ASSETS
• COASTAL FRONTIERS OF ABOUT 5800 KILOMETRES, FAVOURING OCEAN TRADE
• NATURAL FRONTIER OBSTACLES ON ALL SIDES
ASSETS
• A HIGH LITERACY RATE OF 85%
• A WELL DEVELOPED COMMUNICATION SYSTEM OF INLAND WATER TRANSPORT, ROADS AND RAILWAYS
LIABILITIES
• ONLY 11% OF THE TOTAL LAND IS ARABLE
• EXCESS POPULATION PRESSURE ON EAST AND SOUTH EAST CHINA
• DIFFICULT TERRAIN, WHICH IMPEDES DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH AND NORTH-EAST CHINA
CHINESE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE
• CHINA WELL POISED TO BECOME A WORLD LEADER
• CAN EXERCISE DIRECT INFLUENCE ON
– THE SOUTH/EAST CHINA SEA
– BAY OF BENGAL
– THE ARABIAN SEA
– CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS
RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBOURS
• ONLY COUNTRY TO HAVE 16 NEIGHBOURS
– MAINTAINS GOOD RELATIONS WITH SOME
– INDIFFERENT TO OTHERS
• SINO – PAK ALLIANCE SURVIVED MANY UPHEAVALS
• SETTLING BORDER DISPUTES WITH HER NEIGHBOURS
• INDIA IS ONLY COUNTRY WITH UNRESOLVED BORDER DISPUTE
RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBOURS
OWL NEWSMONDAY
JOIN THE DSSCAT WELLINGTON
• FREE ! FREE ! FREE ! ONE YEAR OF HOLIDAY AND FUN.(THAT’S IF ONE CALLS THIS FUN )
• FREE HORSE RIDING, ANGLING, TREKKING ETC.
• BRING YOUR KIDS ALONG, BUT MAKE ARRANGEMENTS TO LOOK AFTER THEM.
• THAT IS NOT ALL, FREE LESSONS IN PUBLIC SPEAKING AND CRITICISM.
• LADIES CAN KEEP BUSY DOING ITOW AND COMPUTER CLASSES.
• SPECIALLY ARRANGEGED DIPLOMAS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.
• COME ONE COME ALL, JOIN THE DSSC.
PART II
ECONOMY
• CHINA IS CALLED AN AWAKENED DRAGON
• HAS A TRADE TURNOVER EXCEEDING $196 BILLION
• EXPECTED TO OVER TAKE THE ECONOMIES OF GERMANY AND JAPAN
ECONOMY
• FAILED TO ENTER THE ERA OF MODERN ECONOMIC GROWTH UNTIL 1949
• INCREASED RAPIDLY AFTER 1949
• LIMITED RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT PREVENTED CHINA FROM PRODUCING ADVANCED EQUIPMENT
ECONOMY
• ERA OF ECONOMIC REFORM
• THE RESPONSIBILITY SYSTEM OF
PRODUCTION IN AGRICULTURE
ECONOMY
• ROLE OF GOVERNMENT WAS
REDUCED IN MOST OTHER SECTORS
• EACH NEW POLICY PERIOD
RETAINED MOST OF THE EXISTING
ECONOMIC ORGANISATION
ECONOMY
• BY 1956, 67.5 % OF ALL MODERN
INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES WERE
STATE OWNED
ECONOMY
• BETWEEN 1952 AND 1957 INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION INCREASED AT A RATE OF 19
%
• NATIONAL INCOME GREW AT A RATE OF
9 % A YEAR
• 'THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD'
ECONOMY
• ECONOMIC STABILITY WAS RESTORED BETWEEN 1961-65
• BY 1966, PRODUCTION IN BOTH AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY SURPASSED THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD PERIOD
ECONOMY
• INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 14 % IN 1977 AND 13 % IN 1978
• AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION WAS STIMULATED IN 1979 BY AN INCREASE OF OVER 22 % IN THE PROCUREMENT PRICES
ECONOMY
• FOREIGN-TRADE PROCEDURES WERE
GREATLY EASED
• THE ROLE OF FREE MARKETS FOR
FARM PRODUCE WAS FURTHER
EXPANDED
ECONOMY
• FARM INCOMES ROSE RAPIDLY
• FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
$ 24.2 b IN THE FIRST HALF OF
1998
ECONOMY
• BY 1987, THE ECONOMY MADE
MAJOR STRIDES TOWARDS
IMPROVING LIVING STANDARDS
ECONOMY• THE EFFICIENCY AND
PRODUCTIVITY WAS GREATLY INCREASED BY
– REVIVAL OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM
– OPENING OF THE ECONOMY TO BROADER TRADE
– THE EXPANDED USE OF THE MARKET TO VITALISE COMMERCE
ECONOMY
• INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES DISPERSED
• GROWING POOL OF TECHNICIANS
ECONOMIC REFORMS
• DENG XIAO PENG ERA
• FOUR POINT MODERNISATION PROGRAMME
• SHARPLY REDUCED AGRICULTURAL YIELDS IN 1950s AND 1960s
ECONOMIC REFORMS
• DENG XIAO PENG ERA
– AFTER 1979, PEASANT HOUSEHOLDS
WERE ALLOCATED THEIR OWN PLOTS
OF LAND UNDER CONTRACT
ECONOMIC REFORMS
• DENG XIAO PENG ERA
• ALLOWED TO SELL THE SURPLUS IN
THE MARKET
• THE AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
RATE OF AGRICULTURAL ROSE TO
5.2 %
ECONOMIC REFORMS
• BETWEEN LATE 70s AND 90s THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCREASED AT A RATE OF 10.8%
• THE COAL OUTPUT HAS DOUBLED
• ELECTRICITY HAS INCREASED BY THREE TIMES
• STEEL PRODUCTION BY TWO AND HALF TIMES
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS
• LOST SCIENTISTS AND TECHNICIANS DURING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION
• CHINA TILL RECENTLY BELIEVED IN THE "COPY-BOOK" TECHNOLOGY (REVERSE ENGINEERING)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS
• THE THRUST WAS ON QUANTITY AND NOT QUALITY BEFORE REFORMS
• NOW THE THRUST IN CHINA IS FOCUSSING ON QUALITY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS• 5000 RESEARCH INSTITUTES
FUNDED BY BEIJING
• BY 1997 : 27 MILLION PROFESSIONALS AND TECHNICIANS
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS
• SCIENTIFIC EXPENDITURE IN 1997
WAS $ 6.88 BILLION
• 33,000 KEY RESULTS, 62,000 PATENT
APPLICATIONS APPROVED
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS
• 2.46 LAKH CONTRACTS OF TRANSFER
OF TECHNOLOGY
• THE VALUES OF TRANSACTIONS
WERE $2.53 BILLION
PLA AND INDUSTRY
• CONVERSION OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES FOR PRODUCING CIVILIAN GOODS A BOOMING SUCCESS
• THE PLA HAS SOME 10,000 VENTURES, WHICH BRING IN AN ANNUAL PROFIT OF 5 TO 6 BILLION DOLLARS
FOREIGN TRADE
• FOREIGN TRADE FOR 1992 HAD BEEN EQUAL TO THAT FOR THE PREVIOUS 13 YEARS
• FOREIGN TRADE IN 1993 WAS ITSELF TWICE AS THAT OF 1992
• SHOWN A SUSTAINED GROWTH RATE OF OVER 10% DURING THAT PERIOD
FOREIGN TRADE
• HOWEVER THE YEARS AFTER 1992 IT HAS SHOWN A REDUCTION IN GROWTH RATE
• SEEMS POISED TO BECOME THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMY BY 2010
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
• CHOSEN TO ATTRACT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
• MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES WERE ENCOURAGED BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS
– TO PRODUCE GOODS AND SERVICES AT HIGHLY COMPETITIVE RATES
– INFLOW SERVED AS A SHAKE UP TO THE STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES
SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY
• IN 1993, ADOPTED 'CONSTRUCTION OF THE SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY’
• RECOGNITION OF THE COMPATIBILITY OF MARKET FORCES AND SOCIALIST IDEOLOGY
SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY
• IMPRESSIVE GROWTH RATE OF THE GDP RECORDED BY THE CHINESE ECONOMY
• THE CAPITAL GOODS SEGMENT HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE GDP
MARKET REFORMS
• REALISED THAT SUCCESS OF REFORMS DEPENDS ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
• CONCENTRATED ON DEVELOPING A SOUND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL
MARKET REFORMS
• REFORMS INTRODUCED AS SMALL SCALE EXPERIMENTS ON REGIONAL BASIS
• THE EMPHASIS OF ALL THE REFORMS HAS BEEN OUTWARD LOOKING TO ATTRACT FDI
OBSTACLES IN MARKET REFORMS
• SHORT TERM PROSPECTS PRESENT A VERY ROSY PICTURE
• A NEED TO SERIOUSLY ADDRESS LONG TERM MACRO ECONOMIC IMBALANCES
• MANY IDEOLOGICAL CONTRADICTIONS
OBSTACLES IN MARKET REFORMS
• 85% OF FDI CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS
• SUPPLY BOTTLENECKS IN ENERGY AND RAW MATERIALS
• DISPARITY BETWEEN REGIONS IN INCOME AND STANDARD OF LIVING
• MAY MANIFEST INTO STRIFE
PROBLEM AREAS
• INCREASING BUDGET DEFICIT
• VAST STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES SECTOR
• BOTH ASPECTS CANNOT BE READILY CORRECTED
PROBLEM AREAS
• THE VAST POPULATION OF CHINA HAS RESULTED EXCESSIVE ORGANISATION
• GROWING DISSATISFACTION OF PEASANTRY
• FOOD SHORTAGE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CENTRAL FORCES
PROBLEM AREAS
• THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE A SERIOUS BOTTLE NECK
• REFORMS INSEPARABLY LINKED WITH THE CONTINUITY OF SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY
SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS
• CAREFULLY CULTIVATED THE US BUSINESS COMMUNITY
• THEIR AMBASSADORS INFLUENCE US DECISION MAKING BODIES
• HAS REACH IN EVERY BRANCH OF THE US GOVERNMENT
SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS
• DESPITE DIVERGENT VIEWS, THE USA HAS BEEN REVIEWING & RENEWING THE MFN STATUS
• USA HAS DE-LINKED THE HUMAN RIGHTS PERFORMANCE FROM TRADE
“Trade is not the most effective way to pressurise china to improve its human rights record”
• US SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS
• ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF USA DEPENDS ON
– LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY
– STABLE PATTERN OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE
– INVOLVES TARGETING NEW AND LARGE MARKETS
SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS
• IN THE ECONOMIC EQUATION USA IS A DISADVANTAGED PARTNER
• NOT RENEWING THE MFN STATUS WOULD AFFECT 10% OF CHINESE EXPORTS
OWL NEWSMONDAY
PARTS OF SPEECH
– NOUN– PRONOUN– ADJECTIVE– VERB– ADVERB– PREPOSITION– CONJUNCTION– INTERJECTION
SORRY
SNaFU(Standard Naval F’ Up)
DEFINITION AS PER JSSD VOL III
PARTS OF SPEECH
• World Trade Organisation• Sino-Indian Defence Strategy• 1962 War• Crystal Ball Gazing• Maritime Air Operations• ABC of World Economy• IMF Graph• Black Magic
DS• BEFORE RELEGATION
DIRECTED STUFF
• AFTER RELEGATION
DIRECTING STAFF
HINDI CHEENEE BYE BYE
MAO
Delhi – HeldiKuthar – ThakurMahe – HemaChetak – Katcha
Shankush – Sushkhan MAO – O Ma
% W
OR
LD
’S G
DP
YEAR2000
ATTRACTIONS IN DECEMBER
• HRD CAPSULE
• PAK AND CHINA CONFIDENTIAL
• EMP OF STK CORPS
• MID TERM BREAK.
DON’T MISS THEM.
THE PLA
THE PEOPLES LIBERATION ARMY
CONSISTS OF
– THE ARMY
– THE NAVY
– THE AIR FORCE
DOCTRINE
• NO MAJOR WAR IS GOING TO BE FOUGHT IN THE NEAR FUTURE
• PROPELLED HER INTO A DOCTRINE CALLED ‘PEOPLES WAR UNDER MODERN CONDITIONS’
• CREATION OF THE RAPID REACTION FORCE
•DOCTRINE
• THE PLA IN FUTURE CONFLICT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUPY DISPUTED
AREAS WITH A HIGH-TECH ARMY
• THEREAFTER, LEAVE IT TO THE
POLITICAL LEADERS TO NEGOTIATE
FAVOURABLY
ARMY
• WORLD’S LARGEST MILITARY
FORCE
• DEFENCE BUDGET $ 10 8 Bn
• PLA STRENGTH 3 MILLION
ARMY
• ARMY 2 2 MILLION MEN (80% OF THE PLA’S TOTAL MANPOWER)
• CONSIDERED TO BE A DEFENSIVE FORCE
• LACKS LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR PROTRACTED LARGE-SCALE OPERATIONS
ROLES ASSIGNED TO THE PLA
• TO DEFEND THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE PRC
• TO DETER ATTACK BY ANY NATION
ROLES ASSIGNED TO THE PLA
• TO ASSIST IN THE MAINTENANCE OF
INTERNAL SECURITY IN PRC
• TO SUPPORT THE FOREIGN POLICY
OBJECTIVES OF PRC
ORGANISATION
• CHINA IS DIVIDED INTO 7 MILITARY REGIONS
SHENYANG
JINAN
ARMY
• THE ERSTWHILE 35 FIELD
ARMIES HAVE BEEN SEEN
REORGANISED INTO 21
INTEGRATED GROUP ARMIES
ARMY• CONSCRIPTION IS COMPULSORY BUT
SELECTIVE
• ONLY SOME OF THE POTENTIAL RESERVIST ARE CALLED UP
• SERVICE IS THREE YEARS WITH THE ARMY, FOUR YEARS WITH THE AF AND NAVY
COMPOSITION OF GP ARMIES
• 78 INF DIVS
• 10 ARMD
• 5 ARTY DIVS
• 15 ENGR REGTS
• PMF 1.2 MILLION
TYPES OF GP ARMIES
• PLAINS
• MOUNTAINS
• FRONTIER/COASTAL
ARMY EQPT HOLDINGS• MBT 8,800
• LT TANKS 1,200
• AFV/ICV 5,500
• TOWED ARTY 14,500
• HEPTRS 130
OWL NEWSMONDAY
NAVY(PLAN)
• THE END OF COLD WAR HAS LEFT A VACUUM IN EXTRA REGIONAL NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
• CHINA CONSIDERS HER RIGHT TO BE THE SUCCESSOR TO THE USSR AND US FLEETS
NAVY(PLAN)
• CHINESE MARITIME DEVELOPMENTS
STARTED IN 1960s
• SHIP YARD EXPANSION AND SHIP
BUILDING RECEIVED DUE
ATTENTION FROM THE BEGINNING
OF THIS DECADE
NAVY(PLAN)
• THE PLA NAVY (PLAN) IS LARGE AND HAS INDEPENDENT AIR ARM
• MODERNISATION OF PLAN INCLUDES UPGRADING OF SHIPBOARD WEAPON SYSTEMS
NAVY(PLAN)
• BUILDING LARGE DESTROYERS
EQUIPPED WITH WESTERN
TECHNOLOGY
• BUILDING LARGE BATTLESHIPS
FITTED WITH MISSILES AND
ADVANCED ELECTRONICS
NAVY(PLAN)
• EXPECTED TO EITHER BUILD OR BUY SEVERAL LIGHT AIRCRAFT CARRIERS BY 2026
ORGANIZATION OF PLAN
• THE PLAN IS ORGANISED IN
– NORTH SEA FLEET
– SOUTH SEA FLEET
– EAST SEA FLEET
NORTH SEA FLEET
QINGDAO
DONSHAN
SOUTH SEA FLEET
DONSHAN
ZHANJIANG
EAST SEA FLEETLIANYUNGANG
SHANGHAI
DONGSHAN
TOTAL ASSETS
• HAS 18 BASES WHICH CAN TAKE UP
TO ABOUT 1850 VESSELS
• THE CHINESE NAVY IS 2,60,000 MEN
STRONG
TOTAL ASSETS
• 54 SURFACE WARSHIPS, 860 COASTAL
VESSELS AND 105 SUBMARINES
• OF THESE ONE IS ‘XIA’ CLASS SSBN
AND THREE ARE ‘HAN’ CLASS SSNS
TOTAL ASSETS
• SUBMARINES 63
• DESTROYERS 18
• FRIGATES 35
• MISSILE CRAFT 163
• MINE LAYER 1
• MINE SWEEPERS 118
• LST 73
• COMBAT AC 541
• HEPTRS 25 (ARMED)
OWL NEWSMONDAY
SOVIET SUPPLIED AIRCRAFT
• MIG - 15, 17, 19 AND 21
• IL -28
• TU - 4
PLAAF ORGANISATION
• BASED ON SOVIET PATTERN
• 12 AIRCRAFT PER SQN
• 03 SQN PER REGMENT
• 03 REGMENT PER AIR DIVISION
ROLES ASSIGNED
• AIR DEFENCE
• GROUND ATTACK
• TACTICAL BOMBING
PLA AF HOLDING
• FIGHTERS 4100 ( F-6,A-5,
F- 7,F-8,Q-5)
• BOMBERS 400
• TRANSPORT 400
• RECCE 290
• HEPTRS 210
MODERNISATION• AIRCRAFT ACQUISITION ( SU-27, MIG 31)• AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS• DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIROLE
AGILE AIRCRAFT • MOU WITH INDIA AND KOREA
FOR TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT
MODERNISATION
• AVIONICS FOR SURVEILLANCE AND RECCONAISSANCE
• ASI-5 MULTIMODE FIRE CONTROL RADAR
• DAY/NIGHT IMAGING PODS
DF-5 (CSS-4) ICBM/MIRV NUCLEAR 15000 KM
DF-4 (CSS-3) ICBM NUCLEAR 7000 KM
DF-5 (CSS-2) IRBM NUCLEAR 2700 KM
JL1 SLBM NUCLEAR 2200 -3000 KM
DF-31 ICBM NUCLEAR >8000 KM
STRATEGIC MISSILES
LEGEND
AIRFIELD
ROAD
OWL NEWSMONDAY
CHINESE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY
“HOW MIGHT CHINA USE
THE ATOM BOMB?”
OBJECTIVES OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY
• NATIONAL SECURITY BY DETERRING
AN ATTACK BY A SUPER POWER
• ESTABLISH INTERNATIONAL
NEGOTIATING POSITION FROM A
POSITION OF STRENGTH
OBJECTIVES OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY
• TO BREAK THE NUCLEAR
MONOPOLY OF WORLD SUPER
POWERS
NUCLEAR PROGRAMME
• BEGAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME WITH THE HELP OF ERSTWHILE SOVIET UNION IN 1950s
• DUE TO CONFLICTS WITH USSR DECIDED TO GO AHEAD ON HER OWN
NUCLEAR PROGRAMME
• IT IS SUSPECTED THAT NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY WAS STOLEN FROM
THE USA BY CHINA
NUCLEAR ARSENAL
• 400 WARHEADS
• SECOND ARTY CORPS RESPONSIBLE FOR DELIVERY
• DELIVERY BY FIGHTER AIRCRAFT
CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY
• AMBIGUOUS IN CONTRAST WITH
THAT OF RUSSIA AND THE USA
• FINAL AUTHORITY FOR THE USE
RESTS WITH THE PARTY
CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY
• BELIEVES IN ‘FLEXIBLE RESPONSE
STRATEGY’
• RETAIN THE OPTION OF SELECTIVE
DETERRENCE
CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY
• TO FORCE NUCLEAR INACTION BY
FRIGHTENING THE ADVERSARY
• PLEDGES NOT TO BE THE FIRST TO
USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS
CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY
• USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WITHIN
OWN TERRITORY AGAINST AN
INVADING ARMY IS NOT A
VIOLATION OF THE PLEDGE
TRI-POLAR DETERRENCE
• TWO PRONGED STRATEGY TO DETER RUSSIA AND US
• CAN MATERIALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF TARGETS IT CAN ATTACK IN SHORT SPAN OF TIME
OWL NEWSMONDAY
CATEGORISATION OF CATEGORISATION OF THREATTHREAT
• INTERNAL
– MINORITIES
– LIBERALISATION
– CHANGING CULTURAL VALUES
CATEGORISATION CATEGORISATION OF THREATOF THREAT
• EXTERNAL
– USA - OPEN ADVERSARY
– JAPAN - POWERFUL RESURGENT ADVERSARY
– VIETNAM - UNPREDICTABLE ACE HITMAN
CATEGORISATION CATEGORISATION OF THREATOF THREAT
• EXTERNAL
– RUSSIA - POWERFUL THREATENING FORCE
– INDIA - NEO-NUCLEAR WITH ADVANCING MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
CHINESE GEOPOLITICAL FACETS
• EXTREME POSSESSIVE ATTITUDE TO
HER TERRITORIES
• SENSITIVENESS TO SECESSIONERY
TENDENCIES
SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT
• HAS LARGE ETHNIC POPULATION OF
– KAZAKHS
– KYRGHYS
– TAZIKS
– UIGHURS
SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT
• MOSTLY MUSLIMS AND SHARE CULTURAL AND RELIGIOUS LINKS WITH CARs
• RISE OF TALIBAN – ALARMED THESE STATES
SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT
• LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THESE MINORITIES
• SHANGHAI TREATY – STOP SPONSORING THESE GROUPS
TIBET
• CONQUERED BY MONGOLS IN 13TH CENTURY
• CAME UNDER “MANCHU” CONTROL IN 18TH CENTURY
CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF
CHINA
• EQUIPMENT IS 10-20 YEARS BEHIND THAT OF THE WEST
• MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT OUTDATED
CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF
CHINA
• LACKS INTEGRATED AIRBORNE WARNING AND CONTROL SYSTEM (AWACS) FORCE
• UAVs ARE UNDER DEVELOPMENT
CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF
CHINA
• SYSTEMS - INTEGRATION SKILLS ARE POOR
• INADEQUATE MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES AND NON-EXISTENT INTEGRATED LOGISTIC SUPPORT
PROGRESS MADE
• SOME AREAS OF COMMAND AND CONTROL
• CRUISE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY
CONTROL OF SLOC IN IOR REGION
• NAVAL CONFLICT IN BAY OF BENGAL LESS LIKELY
• SLOCs ARE IMPORTANT FOR US AND WESTERN POWERS IN THIS REGION
LAND THREAT
• INTEGRATED WAR IN THREE DIMENSIONS – AIR LAND BATTLE
• USE OF AIR, HELIBORNE, AIRBORNE AND SPECIAL FORCES IN A SIMULTANEOUS DEEP BATTLE
• TRAINING IN NBC SCENARIOS, BOTH IN OFFENCE AND DEFENCE
MARITIME THREAT
• REGARDS INDIA AS A POTENTIAL COMPETITOR FOR CONTROL IN SOUTH EAST ASIA AND AS THE PRINCIPLE ADVERSARY ACROSS MALACCA STRAITS
• HER INTERESTS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ARE LONG-TERM AND STRATEGIC
POLICY IN THE BAY OF BENGAL
• TO DEVELOP RELATIONS WITH MYANMAR - LAND BASED ACCESS IN BAY OF BENGAL
• TO DEVELOP A BLUE-WATER CAPABILITY
• TO LIMIT INDIAN NAVAL FORCE PROJECTION TO THE WEST OF SINGAPORE
MILITARY COUNTER MEASURES
• INDIAN ARMED FORCES UNDER CONSTRAINTS OF BUDGETING
• UNLIKELY TO GROW IN SIZE
MILITARY COUNTER MEASURES
• CHINA RECOGNISED THE NEED TO REDUCE MANPOWER
• PLA HAS LESS ECONOMIC LIMITATIONS
• INDIAN ARMED FORCES RESTRUCTURE ITSELF TO SUIT POLITICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY
• RESTRUCTURING AND RESIZING THE ARMY
• DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE MULTIPLIERS
– INTEGRATED STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL C4I2 SYSTEMS
INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY
• DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE MULTIPLIERS
– BETTER RADARS, SAMS, SSMS, UAVS,
– AIR-TO- AIR REFUELLING
– INTEGRATED LOGISTICS
INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY
• DEVELOPMENT OF CREDIBLE RAPID DEPLOYMENT AND AMPHIBIOUS CAPABILITY OF A DIVISION EACH
• DOCTRINAL SHIFT TO ‘INFO-AGE WARFARE’
OWL NEWSMONDAY
SPOT WHAT’S WRONG CONTEST
• SPOT WHAT’S WRONG IN THE PHOTOGRAPH WE SHOW YOU.
• 100 EARLY BIRD PRIZES.
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CHINESE AIR FORCE
SEND IN YOUR ENTRIES TO
CHINA STUDY CELL C/O AIR WING DSSC
WELLINGTON TAMILNADU.
SINO RUSSIA
• SITUATION CHANGED WITH THE FORMATION OF THE CIS
• RUSSIA APPRECIATED THAT CHINA COULD BECOME AN IMPORTANT ALLY IN THIS NEW UNI-POLAR WORLD ORDER
• CHINA HAD MONEY POWER AND RUSSIA HAD THE TECHNOLOGY
HISTORICAL AGREEMENT
• ALL CONTROVERSIES AND BORDER DISPUTES WERE TO BE SETTLED BY PEACEFUL MEANS
• CEDING OF TERRITORIES TO EACH OTHER AND REDUCTION OF TROOPS AT THE BORDERS
HISTORICAL AGREEMENT
• MODEL TREATY FOR SETTLING
BORDER DISPUTES BETWEEN
VARIOUS NATIONS
SINO - JAPAN
• HISTORICALLY JAPAN HAS BEEN A THREAT TO CHINA
• 1978 TREATY OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP
• 1996 JAPANESE RIGHT WING GROUP LANDED ON SENKAKU ISLAND
STEPS TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS
• PRESIDENT HASHIMOTO MET PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN IN 1996
• IN 1997 JAPAN ANNOUNCED LIFTING OF THE FREEZE OF GRANTS IN AID
STEPS TO NORMALISE RELATIONS
• UNDERSTANDING REACHED TO EXPAND CO-OPERATION IN THE AREAS OF
– HIGH TECHNOLOGY
– INFORMATION
STEPS TO NORMALISE RELATIONS
• UNDERSTANDING REACHED TO EXPAND CO-OPERATION IN THE AREAS OF
– ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
– AGRICULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE
• PROMOTE SECURITY DIALOGUES
• 33 ITEM CO-OPERATION PLAN
REASONS FOR TENSIONS
• VISIT TO CORNELL UNIVERSITY IN 1995 BY TAIWAN PRESIDENT LEE-TENG-HUI
• SHIFT FROM THE AGREEMENT SIGNED BY PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON IN 1972
TAIWAN’S REQUIREMENTS
• VOTERS ON THE ISLAND FOR INDEPENDENCE
• INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION OF ITS SOVEREIGN STATUS
• BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM CHINA
RESULTS OF INTERNET SURVEY CARRIED OUT
FOR SOVEREIGNTY
– 70.17% SAID "YES"
– 20. 28 % SAID "NO”
CLAIM OF JURISDICTION OVER TAIWAN
• EVERY SOVEREIGN STATE HAS THE RIGHT TO PROTECT ITS UNITY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY
• TAIWAN HISTORICALLY BELONGS TO CHINA
CLAIM OF JURISDICTION OVER TAIWAN
• THE PROCLAMATION ISSUED AT THE CAIRO CONFERENCE IN 1943 STATES THAT TAIWAN BE RETURNED TO CHINA
• TAIWAN IS CONSIDERED A PART OF CHINA BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
WORLD POSITION ON TAIWAN
• NO PERMISSION REQUIRED FROM CHINA TO
– TRADE WITH TAIWAN
– TRANSIT PEOPLE, AIRCRAFT AND SHIPS TO AND FROM TAIWAN
WORLD POSITION ON TAIWAN
• CHINA’S CLAIM OVER TAIWAN IS FACTUALLY WEAK
• NO IMMEDIATE ANSWER
SINO-US RELATIONS
• DECISION OF THE US TO SUPPORT
CHIANG-KAI SHEK IN HIS STRUGGLE
AGAINST MAO
• KOREAN CONFLICT OF 1950
SINO-US RELATIONS
• EISENHOWER'S THREAT TO USE
NUCLEAR WEAPON
• US SUPPLY OF ARMS AND
EQUIPMENT TO TAIWAN
RELATIONS NOW
• RICHARD NIXON CONSIDERABLY
IMPROVED THEIR RELATIONS
• THE MILITARY TIES WERE
STRENGTHENED IN THE LATE 70s
RELATIONS NOW
• CHINA CONSIDERS USA MORE AS A
FRIEND THAN AN ALLY
• USA ON THE OTHER HAND, SEES
CHINA AS AN EMERGING MARKET
FOR HER GOODS
AMERICAN POLICY
• BASED ON 1979 TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT
• BEIJING OPPOSED INTERFERENCE IN DOMESTIC POLITICS
• LIKELY DANGER TO SINO-US RELATIONS
CHINA -EU
• CHINA IS THE THIRD LARGEST NON-EUROPEAN TRADING PARTNER FOR THE EU
• THE EU BACKS CHINA'S TRANSITION TOWARDS AN OPEN SOCIETY BASED UPON THE RULE OF LAW
AREAS OF MUTUAL CO-OPERATION
• REGIONAL CO-OPERATION
• ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
• ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION
• REDUCTION IN CROSS BORDER CRIMES
FOREIGN POLICY
• ATTITUDE WAS DETERMINED BY THREE MAJOR FACTORS
– SRI LANKA'S CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH UNITED KINGDOM
– DOMESTIC POLITICS
– SOVIET UNION’S VETO OF SRI LANKA'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED NATIONS
SRI LANKA’S VIEW
• INTENSE DISLIKE FOR COMMUNISM
• A NEW POWER PATTERN WITH INDIA AS THE DOMINANT POWER IN THE SUBCONTINENT
• WELCOMES COUNTER POISE TO INDIA'S POWER AND INFLUENCE
CHINA'S POLICY • STAGES OF CHINA’S POLICY
– MYANMAR PRO-WEST
– ACCUSED U Nu AS STOOGE OF US
– THE WHITE FLAG COMMUNIST MOVEMENT
– CHINA'S MOVE TO RESTORE STATUS QUO
MYANMAR’S RESPONSE• WITHDREW FROM THE NON-
ALIGNMENT MOVEMENT
• RECEPTIVE TO CHINA’S NEEDS TO WARD OFF THREATS OF REBELS
• CHINESE HAVE OBTAINED BASE FACILITIES FROM MYANMAR AT HANGYI ISLANDS AND COCO ISLAND
BACKGROUND
• CHINA NEVER SUPPORTED THE BANGLA MOVEMENT FOR INDEPENDENCE
• RECOGNISED BANGLADESH AS LATE AS 1975
PRESENT SITUATION
• CHINA IS MAJOR SUPPLIER OF ARMS
• ACTIVE CO-OPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND BANGLADESH
CHINA – NEPAL RELATIONS
• HISTORICAL LINKS
• GEO-CONTIGUOUS STATES
• LOFTY HIMALAYAS AS INSULATION
CHINA – NEPAL RELATIONS
• LOCATION STRATEGIC
• NEPAL – A BUFFER STATE
CHINA – PAKISTAN RELATIONS
• FIRST MUSLIM COUNTRY TO RECOGNISE PRC
• PAKISTAN GAVE AWAY 2050 SQ KM OF POK
• PIA FIRST AIRLINE OPERATING TO BEIJING
CHINESE ROLE IN THE 1965 INDO-PAK WAR
• CHINA HELD INDIA SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONFLICT
• SUPPORTED KASHMIRI’S RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION
CHINESE ROLE IN THE 1965 INDO-PAK WAR
• ACCUSED UN OF ACTING TO PAKISTAN'S DETRIMENT
• REACTED VIOLENTLY IN SIKKIM
CHINA'S POLICY ON PAKISTAN
• AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION / DIPLOMATIC MANOEUVRING AIMED TO: -
– DOMINATE SOUTH ASIA
– INTEGRATE THE SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMY WITH HER OWN
– SUPPLICATE US INFLUENCE IN ASIA
BENEFITS TO PAKISTAN
• DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT
• MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN LARGE AMOUNTS
BENEFITS TO PAKISTAN
• ASSISTANCE IN ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND DEFENCE PRODUCTION
• TRANSFER OF INTERMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILES LIKE THE M-11 SRBMS ETC
CHINA - INDIA• INDIA AND CHINA EMERGED AS
POLITICAL ENTITIES AT THE SAME TIME
• INDIA - PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC NON - ALIGNED COUNTRY
• CHINA - MODERN COMMUNIST NATION
RELATIONS
• NEVER FOLLOWED ANY UNIFORM PATTERN
• SINO-INDIAN RELATIONS BEST UNDERSTOOD BY DIVIDING IT INTO DIFFERENT PERIODS
PERIOD FROM 1947-50
• PT JAWAHARLAL NEHRU DESCRIBED CHINA AS "A MIGHTY COUNTRY WITH A MIGHTY PAST"
• INDIA RECOGNISED THE PRC IN DEC 1949
PERIOD FROM 1950-54
• CHANGES IN RELATIONS FROM IDEOLOGICAL DISTANCE TO STATE OF FRIENDSHIP DESPITE
– KOREAN WAR
– TAKE OVER OF TIBET BY THE PLA
PERIOD OF HINDI-CHINI-BHAI-BHAI
• SOCIO-CULTURAL EXCHANGES
• CHINESE INCURSIONS IN NORTHERN FRONTIERS
• 1956 – 57 ROAD ACROSS AKSAI - CHIN
PERIOD FROM 1959 - 62
• IN JAN 1959 CHOU EN LAI CHALLENGED ESTABLISHED BOUNDARY BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA
• IN SEP 1959 CLAIMED 50,000 SQ MILES OF INDIAN TERRITORY
PERIOD FROM 1959 - 62
• IN 1962 CHINA MOUNTED A FULL-FLEDGED ATTACK ON INDIA
• CHINA MOVED CLOSER TO PAKISTAN & SUPPORTED HER IN 1965, 71 WARS WITH INDIA
PERIOD SINCE 1976
• IN 1976 DIPLOMATIC TIES RESUMED
• MODEST LINKS IN TRADE, BANKING AND SHIPPING RE-ESTABLISHED
• IN 1988 JOINT WORKING GROUP SET UP TO SOLVE THE BORDER DISPUTES
HURDLES IN RELATIONS
• CHINA DOES NOT RECOGNISE MAC MAHON LINE
• SIKKIM AND ARUNACHAL ARE NOT RECOGNISED BY CHINA AS PARTS OF INDIA
• AKSAI CHIN STANDS IN THE WAY
HURDLES IN RELATIONS
• OVERT AND COVERT SUPPORT BY CHINA TO PAKISTAN
• CHINA SEES INDIA AS A MAJOR RIVAL IN SE ASIA
HURDLES IN RELATIONS
• JOINED HANDS WITH PAKISTAN TO INTERNATIONALISE THE KASHMIR ISSUE
• CHINA'S MILITARY BASES IN MYANMAR AND TIBET
• INDIA'S NUCLEAR TESTS NOT LIKED BY CHINA
HURDLES IN RELATIONS
• INDIA MUST SIGN THE CTBT AND THE NPT UNCONDITIONALLY
• INDIA'S SUPPORT TO THE DALAI LAMA
A first- rate theory predicts; a second- rate theory forbids; and a third- rate theory explains after the event.
Alexander Isaakovich Kitaigordskii
PRO DEMOCRACY
ELECTIONS AT VILLAGE AND LOCAL LEVELS
KEEN INTEREST IN INDIAN DEMOCRACY
DEMOCRACY AN ACCEPTABLE FORM OF GOVERNMENT
TINNANMEN SQUARE INCIDENT AND COLLAPSE OF ERSTWHILE USSR
ANTI DEMOCRACY
Communism more suited to manage large countries like China
Common man not interested in democracy
POLITICAL SCENARIO
• EMERGING MULTI-POLAR WORLD
• INDIA SHOULD MAINTAIN EQUI-DISTANCE
• INDO-RUSSIAN-CHINA AXIS
POLITICAL SCENARIO
• INDIA IS IN THE PERIPHERAL VISION OF CHINA
• SINO-INDIAN RELATIONSHIP--THE ‘POWER FOR ASIANS’ THEORY
• LIKELY ADMISSION IN G-8 AND THE WTO
FUTURE
• DREAM OF GREATER CHINA
• GREAT MILITARY POWER
• BEFRIEND PAKISTAN
• CONFRONTATION WITH ASEAN
The 17th century has been described as the age of reason; the 18th as of enlightenment; 19th as of progress and the 20th as one of anxiety and extremes My hunch is that 21st century would be a century of uncertainty
KR NARAYANAN