overview of wind technology status and economics
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Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics. Brian Smith Lab Program Manager, Wind & Water Power Technologies [email protected] May 18, 2010 National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Visit to NWTC. National Wind Technology Center Overview. Turbine testing since 1977 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics
Brian Smith
Lab Program Manager, Wind & Water Power Technologies
May 18, 2010
National Rural Electric Cooperative Association
Visit to NWTC
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National Wind Technology Center Overview
NPS 1.5MW Direct Drive Generator
• Turbine testing since 1977• Leader in development of
design and analysis codes• Pioneers in component testing• Unique test facilities
• Blade Testing• Dynamometer• CART turbines
• Modern utility-scale turbines• Approx. 130 staff on-site• Budget approx. $40M• Many CRADAs with industry• Leadership roles for
international standards• Lead Lab for DOE Marine
Hydrokinetic Technology Development
Blade Test Facility
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Global Wind Energy Boom Continues – Up 31%
Source: GWEC and EWEA websites
Global Facts
• 37.5 GW added in 2009• 158 GW total• China added 13 GW, double 2008• Wind now ~1.7% of world electricity production• European offshore wind grew 54%
– 2,056 MW total– 38 offshore wind farms– 828 wind turbines
• 158 GW– Produces ~340 TWh of clean electricity/year– Saves ~240 million tons of CO2 /year
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U.S. Wind Industry Breaks Records – over 10 GW
Source: AWEA US Wind Industry Annual Market Report – Year Ending 2009
US Facts• 35.1 GW total, 1.8% of US power in 2009• World leader in installed capacity• 39% capacity growth in 2009• 14 states over 1 GW, 36 states utility-scale
wind project• 39 manufacturing facilities new,
announced or expanded, 85,000 jobs in all 50 states
• 35.2 GW– Saves ~62 million tons of CO2 /year– Equivalent to ~10.5 million cars off the road– Conserve ~20 billion gallons of water/year
U.S. Annual and Cumulative Wind Power Installations
Cumulative Wind Capacity by State
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1 GW of New Wind Yields…
1.8 M metric tons of carbon avoided annually
1.2 M tons of coal / 20.9 Bcf natural gas saved annually
3.2 M MWh of electricity generated annually
1000 construction jobs, 200 long-term
operations & supply chain jobs
$3 M in land-lease payments, $7.2 M in property taxes annually
1.3 B gallons of water saved
annually
Deployment of wind power yields substantial benefits in renewable electricity generation, carbon reduction, and jobs creation
Source: NREL Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model.
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20% Wind Report Guides NREL Wind Strategy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030
Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (G
W)
OffshoreLand-based
Actual
20% Wind Scenario
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Critical Elements for 20% Scenario Improved Performance
– 10% reduction in capital cost– 15% increase in capacity factor– Address Wind Farm underperformance
Mitigate Risk– Reduce O&M costs by 35%– Foster the confidence to support continued
20% per year growth in installation rates from now until 2018
Enhanced Transmission System (AEP)– $60 billion cost estimate over 20 yrs– 19,000 mi of line– Supports 200-400 GW addition
Policy, Communication & OutreachInfrastructure Development
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New NREL - AWS Truepower map estimates land-based wind resource potential
NREL validation of 200-m resolution wind resource estimates fromAWS Truepower Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model
• Mapped new wind resource estimates for 80-m & 100-m hub-heights
• Provided new estimates of Wind Land and Wind Energy Potential by State in Areas >= 30%
• National and State-Level Maps Available
http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp
http://www.awstruewind.com/windpotential.cfm
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Technology Evolution
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• 2.5 MW - typical commercial turbine Installation
• 5.0 MW prototypes being installed for testing in Europe
• Many manufacturers have a 10 MW machine in design
• Large turbine development programs targeting offshore markets
• Hardware development outpacing test & validation capability
Technology Development Today
Boeing 747-400
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Increasing Installed Costs (Land-based)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(e)
6 27 13 26 11 28 23 31 61 28
49 1,653 401 1,533 227 1,795 1,820 3,597 6,125 3,682
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
Individual Project Cost
Polynomial Trend Line
Vintage:
Projects:
MW:
Inst
alle
d P
roje
ct C
ost (
2008
$/k
W)
Sample includes 226 online projects totaling 17.2 GWand 28 projects in development totaling 3.7 GW
Project costs appear to have bottomed out in 2001-2004, and have risen by $630/kW through 2008 ($825/kW through 2009)
Source: Wiser / LBNL
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Increasing Wind Power Prices (Land-based)
Wind power prices bottomed out with projects built in 2002-03Sample built in 2008 is ~$15-20/MWh higher on average
Source: Wiser / LBNL
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Capacity Factor vs. Wind Resource Classification
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Wind Resource Class, 50m
Wei
ghte
d A
vera
ge C
apac
ity F
acto
r
2005-20072002-20041998-2001Log. (2002-2004)Log. (2005-2007)Log. (1998-2001)
Capacity Factor Improvements
Capacity Factor Increases Within Fixed Wind Resource Regimes at 50mSource: Wiser / LBNL
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Multi-MW Turbines installed at NWT
Siemens 2.3 MW
DOE 1.5 MWDOE 1.5 MW GE Turbine• Model: GE 1.5SLE• Tower Height: 80 m• Rotor Diameter: 77 m• DOE owned; to be used for research and education• Turbine Completion Certificate: 28 Sep 09• Continuous Operation Permission: 21 Dec 09
Siemens 2.3 MW Turbine• Model: SWT-2.3-101• Tower Height: 80 m• Rotor Diameter: 101 m• Siemens owned and operated• Multi-year R&D CRADA; aerodynamics and rotor performance• Turbine Commissioning and Ceremony Completed in Oct 09
RES Americas:• Partnered on turbine foundations, installation & erection of 1.5 MW
turbine, and R&D on turbine foundation loads measurement & optimization
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Siemens Wind Turbine Installation Time Lapse
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Dynamometer Testing
Dynamometer Upgrade
• Power up to 5 MW• Shaft Loads• Complete 2012
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Advanced Drivetrain R&D
Today
Tomorrow
GEC
NPS
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Blade Testing Facilities
New Large Blade Test Facility:• Boston, MA with Massachusetts
Technology Collaborative • Static and Fatigue tests of blades up to
90 m• NREL staff to operate facility
• NREL has developed and patented advanced blade testing
• NREL supports R&D blade testing for DOE and industry
• Supporting development of new blade test facilities worldwide
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Small Wind Independent Testing
Tests Completed• Mariah Windspire: Testing terminated due to turbine problems. Power performance, duration,
safety and function reports completed.• ARE 442: Testing completed December 2009. Power performance, duration, safety and function,
and acoustic noise tests completed.
Testing In Progress• Gaia 11-kW – Field testing completed in March 2010, post duration test inspection underway • Entegrity EW50 – Unusually low wind speeds at site prevented completion of duration testing (50%
complete)• Ventera VT10 – Turbine installation in January 2010; testing to begin in April
Progress and results are publicly available on the NREL website including test reports: http://www.nrel.gov/wind/smallwind/independent_testing.html
Independent Testing Project increases consumer confidence through standards and certification
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Marine Renewable Energy Sources
Offshore Wind in Shallow Water Offshore Wind Energy in Deepwater
Tidal Currents River CurrentsWave Energy
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Many Coastal Load Centers Cannot Be Served by Land-based Renewable Resources
Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind
Why Marine Renewables?
US Population Concentration U.S. Wind Resource
28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity in U.S.
Renewable Energy Goals Cannot be Achieved Without Offshore Contributions
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Constrained land use Better wind resources
Reduced turbulence – steadier wind Higher wind = better energy production Higher capacity factors – load matching
Minimize visual impacts with greater distances. Proximity to load centers
Lower transmission constraints Serve high cost regions Exploits indigenous energy
Avoids size limits Shipping – Land-based roadway limits Erection – crane limits Larger machines are more economical.
Rationale for Offshore Wind
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Shallow water 0-30m depth2 – 5 MW upwind rotor configurations70+ meter tower height on monopoles and gravity basesMature submarine power cableExisting oil and gas experience is essentialReliability problems and turbine shortages discouraged early development. Costs are not established in US
Offshore Wind Turbine Technology
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 $-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Estim
ated
Cap
ital C
ost (
2008
Dol
lars
per
kW
)
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost
Announced Cost for Proposed European Project*
Announced Cost for Proposed U.S. Project*
Installed Cost for Operating European Project*
Offshore Wind Project Costs Over Time
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Shallow Water
Transitional Depth
Deepwater Floating
0m-30m430-GW
30m-60m541-GW 60m-900m
1533-GW
Land-based
No exclusions assumed for resource estimates
CommerciallyProven
TechnologyEstimated US Resource
DemonstrationPhase
Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations
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Image Credit: www.greenlaunches.com
• R&D Project developed by StatoilHydro, and Siemens
• 12 km southeast of Karmøy in Norway
• SWT - 2.3 MW architecture 82 meter diameter 65 meter tower
• Spar buoy technology 100 meter draft 202 meter water depth
Reference: w1.siemens.com
World’s First Floating Wind TurbineSiemens SWT-2.3 MW Hywind
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Two Basic Forms of Marine Hydrokinetic Energy
CURRENTS• Activating force flows in same
direction for at least a few hours• Tidal ranges are larger in northern
latitudes• Tidal, river, and ocean variants• Conversion technology is some sort
of submerged turbine
WAVES• Activating force reverses direction
every 5 to 20 seconds• Waves are larger in the northern
latitudes and west coasts.• Conversion technology can be
floating or submerged, with a wide variety of devices
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Tidal Current Turbine ExamplesMarine Current Turbines (axial flow, open rotor)
GCK (cross flow, Gorlov helical rotor)
Open Hydro (axial flow, open rotor, rim-drive)
Lunar Energy (axial flow, shrouded single-rotor)
SeaPower (cross flow, Savonius rotor)
SMD Hydrovision (axial flow, open rotor)
UEK (axial flow, shrouded twin-rotor)
Verdant Power (axial flow, open rotor)
Ocean Renewable Power Company (cross flow)
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NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC
Brian SmithLab Program ManagerWind & Water Power TechnologiesNational Wind Technology Center
Contact Information:Phone: 303-384-6911Email: [email protected]
Questions?