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Overview of the Rural Economy
Sarah A. Low, Associate Professor of Regional Economics Fred V. Heinkel Chair in Agriculture
Director, Community Economic & Entrepreneurial Development, MU Extension program
Rural Economic Outlook Conference, Stillwater, OK
October 8, 2019
The author wishes to acknowledge to Dave Shideler, Mallory Rahe, Austin Sanders, Maria Kuhns, and Kate Thompson for their assistance with this presentation.
All opinions are those of the author and not University of Missouri or MU Extension.
Outline
I. Where Are We? Economic and Demographic Update
II. Outlook—Looking Forward
III. Rural Economic DevelopmentI. Rural Manufacturing
II. Agritourism
III. Rural Entrepreneurship
IV. Policy Implications and Conclusions
Where Are We?
Nationally—Overview
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) humming along
• Consumer spending and disposable income growth low
• Federal funds rate falling
• Trade-related changes creating market uncertainty for businesses
• Period of rural population decline has ended
Regional Economy—Overview
• Despite slowdown, Oklahoma Gross State Product (GDP) looks good relative to the region
• Rural economies are more diverse than ever before• There is much more than Ag and Energy
• Other Opportunities for Rural Areas?
• Above U.S.
• Higher than Missouri!
Growth in Oklahoma’s
Economy Since 2001
MU Extension Labor & Workforce Development
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Change in Real GDP (2001=100)
Arkansas Illinois Indiana Iowa
Kansas Kentucky Nebraska Oklahoma
Tennessee United States Missouri
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Chained 2012 Dollars
U.S. Consumer Spending and Disposable Income Growth Low
Real disposable personal income and real consumer spending, 2019
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Federal Funds Rate—Will Politics Affect It?
Source: Fred.stlouisfed.orgShaded areas represent U.S. recessions
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
• Oklahoma wage and salary employment growth just below U.S.
• Year-over-year positive after recent dip
Payroll Employment, 1980-2018
Percent Employment Change, 2010-18• Oklahoma and
Missouri employment growth stronger than neighboring states’
USDA Economic Research Service Rural Atlas
Growth in Construction and Other Services
• Oklahoma over national average in services, construction, and trade
• Oklahoma employment lagging in FIRE, tourism, manufacturing
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Rural Oklahoma—More than Mining and Agriculture!
Source: USDA ERS Economic Typology, 2015; USDA Atlas of Small Town and Rural America
Percent Employed in Agriculture : 2013-2017
• Relatively little agricultural employment
• Will commodity prices and trade uncertainty reduce the economic importance of production agriculture in rural Oklahoma?
Rural Agricultural Dependency Continues Decline
USDA Economic Research Service Rural Atlas
Professional Industries (FIRE, management,
administrative support), 19.87%
Government and government
enterprises, 16.05%
Accommodation and services, 12.66%
Wholesale and Retail Trade, 12.60%
Educational Services and Health Care,
10.84%
Mining & Utilities, 6.68%
Manufacturing, 6.11%
Construction, 5.67%
Transportation and warehousing &
Information, 4.27%
Farm employment, 3.35% Arts, entertainment,
and recreation, 1.50%Forestry, fishing, and
related activities, 0.40%
Oklahoma
24.43%
12.41%
13.14%13.13%
13.68%
0.97%
6.72%
5.36%
6.06%
1.33%
2.30%
0.48%
United StatesSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, CAN25
Total Full & Part-Time Employment by Industry, 2017
Nationally, Rural Population Loss Has Stemmed; Regionally it varies
Nonmetro population change, 2010-17 Population change by metro/nonmetro status, 1976 - 2017
Decline in Oklahoma Exports to Canada—USMCA?
• Canada (24%)
• Mexico (14%)
• Germany (9%)
• China (6%)
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Oklahoma exports YTD through 2019Q2 (% change)
Oklahoma’s top export markets
• Cash receipts forecast to decrease, driven by crop receipts
• China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. commodities leading to reduced prospects
• African swine fever combined with tariffs = lots of uncertainty
Ag Outlook
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service; USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, Global Agricultural Trade System
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Beef and veal Wheat Pork Cotton Other plant products
What Does the Future for Ag Exports Hold? Oklahoma Commodity Exports ($M), 2000-17
Rural Economic Development Opportunities
What Do We Know About Regional Rural Development Approaches?• Industrial attraction is a difficult strategy• bh
• New market opportunities – consumer preferences are changing
• Creative and collective business problem solving works
• Must capitalize on regional strengths• Oklahoma has expressed interest in food manufacturing and agritourism
policy as regional strength in rural economic development
• I’m a believer in entrepreneurship as a rural community sustainability tool
Manufacturing is more important to the rural economy than the urban economy
The importance of manufacturing
to rural communities has stabilized
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System data
Manufacturing share of nonmetropolitan (rural) jobs and earningsPercent as share of private, nonfarm total
Earnings
Jobs
‘07-’09 recession
2001 recession
Workforce Issues:
U.S. gross manufacturing
job gains & losses
Source: BLS Business Employment Dynamics
Manufacturing is a relatively high wage sector for rural America
Food manufacturing important to rural areas
A group of over 70 Oklahoma food manufacturers, growers, and producers
Missouri too!
Employment declines vary by industry
Rural wages below urban
Opposing Dynamics—Consumer demand differencesSugar Manufacturing (commodity) Wineries (regional, specialty)
Source: Authors’ calculations with National Establishment Time Series data
• Births and Deaths
• Average employment
• Number of establishments
• Total employment
Food Manufacturing Research• Smaller and young food manufacturing establishments may be catalyzing
employment growth in rural and urban America
• Relocalization of food and beverage manufacturing is occurring within a bimodal structure• Large, mature firms’ location is based on traditional determinants and agglomeration
• New, small plants are emerging across the U.S., perhaps to provide niche offerings to local and regional customer base
• Perhaps resulting in a Creative Destruction cycle if mature, large firms acquire innovative ones
• “Agri Culture” and entrepreneurial ecosystems are related to food and beverage manufacturing start-up location, in addition to traditional factors
Agritourism
Agritourism• A recreational or educational enterprise on a
working farm • Pick-your-own fruit• Farm tours• Dude ranches
• Female operators, older operators, and those operating large ranches with cattle or horses are most likely to have agritourism income.
• Beginning, small- and mid-sized farms are using agritourism to remain competitive
• U.S. Agritourism revenue has more than tripled, 2002-17
• $950M in 2017, excluding wineries (5.6% of farm related income)
202,184,000
566,834,000
704,038,000
949,323,000
269,277,264
661,414,058
759,881,054
949,323,000
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rev
enu
e ($
)
Year
Tripling of Agritourism Revenue Between 2002 and 2017
Source: Authors’ calculations using Census of Agriculture data
Inflation adjusted dollars (2017) Nominal Dollars
Agritourism Cluster is Close to Oklahoma
From: Anders, Low, & Thilmany (2019)
Rural Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship Declining Nationally
• Self-employment rates remain high in rural areas but are getting closer to urban self-employment rates
• Employer establishment births, one of the better proxies for entrepreneurship, has been declining in the U.S. for decades
• “Churn” is a measure of entrepreneurial activity, the sum of the birth rate and the death rate• Here, I use county level employer
establishment birth and death rates
Employer Establishment Births over Population – All Industries, 2013-16
U.S. Census Bureau
Oklahoma Employer Estab. Dynamics, 2013-16
– All Industries
Birth Rate - All Churn - All
Death Rate - All
High (>1 StDev. Above Average)
Low (Below U.S. Average)
Above Average (Average to 1 StDev above)
U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-16 annual average normalized by population
Mining
Birth Rate Churn
Death Rate
High (>1 StDev. Above Average)
Low (Below U.S. Average)
Above Average (Average to 1 StDev above)
U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-16 annual average normalized by population
Manufacturing
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Churn
High (>1 StDev. Above Average)
Low (Below U.S. Average)
Above Average (Average to 1 StDev above)
U.S. Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics
Tourism and Recreation (NAICS 71 & 72)
Birth RateChurn
Death Rate
High (>1 StDev. Above Average)
Low (Below U.S. Average)
Above Average (Average to 1 StDev above)
U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-16 annual average normalized by population
< mean
<1 st. dev. above mean
>1 st. dev. Above mean
Few launch innovative companies
A lot of people are self-employed
Example: Entrepreneurial Rural Manufacturers
• Today, manufacturers in rural America have trouble being competitive globally without having a niche:
• My research shows that entrepreneurial manufacturing plants are more resilient in rural areas• Independent
• Smaller
• These results are counter to traditional economic development thinking (recruit branch plants, for example)
• Support locally-rooted entrepreneurial businesses because they can be hubs of innovation
Entrepreneurial (small, independent) Rural Manufacturers are the Most Resilient, 1996-2011
Policy Discussion & Conclusions
New to our Region!
Electrification Telephony Highway System Broadband
NeedRural Economic
RecoveryRural
CommunicationNationwide (defense)
MobilityRural Prosperity
Driving Problem Rural PovertyDiffuse localized
systemsCongestion & Condition Cost of Information Access
GAP ConnectivityLong Range Connectivity
Capacity & SafetyAdequate coverage at
acceptable speeds
SolutionRural Electrification
ActTelecom Act of 1934 Federal Aid Highway Act Telecom Act of 1996
Benefit Increased ProductivitySpeed of
CommunicationIncreased Commerce
Increased Economic Opportunity
Opportunity CostRural OutmigrationDelayed Recovery
Safety service access
Restricted Market Access
Restricted Market SizeTime Lost
Lost Competitive edgeLost Productivity
Federal Cost of Implementation1 $3.7 Trillion2 Nominal3 $616 Billion4 122.8 Billion5
Time to Implementation
1936 – 1942 (6yrs)1934 – ~1992
(58yrs)1956 – 1991 (35yrs) 1996-Present (22yrs)
Absent a Huge Federal Investment—what does the future of Rural America look like?
Conclusions
• Nationally, the economy’s growth may be slowing
• Conditions in Rural America are varied regionally
• Services sector is dominant in Rural America• Ag & Mining disproportionately higher in Oklahoma but only 10 percent of
employment
• Both sectors face uncertainties
• Manufacturing and agritourism are sexier rural development policy options
• Entrepreneurship may be the key to sustainable rural communities