Overview of DSS:Data-Rich & Data-Poor

Approaches

James W. Jones

University of Florida

August 18, 2003

Many DSS Failures• Too complex

– Content– Use – Interpretation of outputs

• Lack of data • Failure to address user needs• Time required to use it• No institutions for continued use• Lack of involvement of users in design,

development

Content

• Data-Rich Examples– Environmental Policy Example; Watershed– Field Scale, Weather/Climate Effects on Crops

• Data-Poor Examples– Watershed Development/Management– Natural Resource Management-Local Scale

• Important Issues– Institutional Aspects– Information Content

1. Policies for Watershed land use/management

• South Florida Water Management District

• ~30,000 acre watershed N of Lake Okeechobee

• Phosphorus runoff from dairies, other agricultural lands into Lake Okeechobee

• State policy led to 30% of dairies closing, changes in land use and management

• Impact assessment on recurring basis

• Data rich, but no framework to interpret it

Watershed Land Use Coverage

LOADSS – Design

GIS-BASEDUSER

INTERFACE

PLAN DESIGN&

PROCESSING

MAPSAND

REPORTS

SCREEN,PRINTER

OR PLOTTER

USERS

LOADSS User Interface

REGIONAL PLAN

PHOSPHORUS MATERIAL &

ECONOMIC BUDGETS

PCP’S CREAMS-WTNON-POINT SOURCE

POINT SOURCE PCP’S PROCESS ANALYSIS

BASIN TREATMENTS PROCESS ANALYSIS

ASSIMILATION

Models & Analysis Tools

GIS Databases

Spatial Data Bases

Input Attribute Data Bases

Soils

Basin Boundaries

Land Use

Weather

Hydrology

Political Boundaries

Sampling Stations

ECONOMIC

DAIRY

HYDROGRAPHY

LAND USE

WEATHER

SOIL

POLLUTIONCONTROL

POINT SOURCES

Optimization Module

DEFINEOPTIMIZATION

GAMS OPTIMIZATION SOLVER

CONSTRAINTSOBJECTIVEFUNCTION

Scenario Analysis, Phosphorus Load to Lake

Impacts• Agency adoption (1993), still in use

• Watershed, impacts of changes in land use, practices on:– Phosphorus runoff into the lake– Economic activity of region– Net P accumulation

• Individual dairy, ex-ante impact assessments

• Agency RFPs

• Implementation in other watersheds

2. Water Resource Management, Rural Hillsides

• Community-based management

• Scenarios for watershed development – land use, land management– river, stream management– policy implications

• Impacts, “water security”– water supply– water demand– equity

DSS Product• GIS-based watershed model • Minimum data set (Data Poor Environment)

– Digital elevation (DEM; ~ 5 m resolution)– General land use categories (Landsat image analysis)– Soil (1: 500,000 scale)– Weather (sparse)– Socioeconomic (population distribution)

• Assess/visualize impacts of changes in land use, management, population, distribution, water management (dams)

• General applicability, different watersheds– Cabuyal, Colombia– Tascalapa, Honduras

Luijten, J. C., E. B. Knapp, and J. W. Jones. 2001. A tool for community-based assessment of the implications of development on water security in hillside watersheds. Agricultural Systems 70(2):603-622.

Menu options in Arcview GIS.Left side: general hydrological tools.Right side: SWBM-related functions.

Stream Water Balance

VRO,x

VLF,x

VUSE,x

Vx-1,x

Vx,x+1

ST,x

VUSE,x,d = VDOM,x,d + VIND,x,d + VAGR,x,d

LandStream

Vx,x+1,d = Vx-1,x,d + VRO,x,d + VLF,x,d - VUSE,x,d - STx,d

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

JAN 94 JUL 94 JAN 95 JUL 95 JAN 96 JUL 96 JAN 97 JUL 97

Flo

w R

ate

(L

/s)

Simulated

Measured

Cabuyal Watershed, Colombia, S.A.3,240 ha

Menu to interactivelyselect the locations ofwater use and dams.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21

Flo

w R

ate

(L/s

)

(A) During dry season,no dams and water use

(B) During dry season, /w dams and water use

(C) After dry season, no dams and water use

(D) After dry season, /w dams and water use

Location of damsA

BD

C

N

Flow Length to Watershed Outlet (km)

Variation in Location of Streams Over Time

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

JAN 96 JUL 96 JAN 97 JUL 97 JAN 98 JUL 98 JAN 99 JUL 99

Flo

w r

ate

(L/s

)

Total River Flow

Steady Slow Flow

Measurements

Hurricane MitchFlow rate 55K L/s

Tascalapa Watershed, Honduras, 1/1/96 - 12/31/99River Flow at Watershed Outlet

Potential Impacts• Participatory Research on hillside watersheds

– Planning

– Scenario analysis

– Policy implications (dams, land use, etc.)

• Conflict resolution

Luijten, J. C., E. B. Knapp, and J. W. Jones. 2001. A tool for community-based assessment of the implications of development on water security in hillside watersheds. Agricultural Systems 70(2):603-622.Also: http://www.icasa.net

But…• No Institutional participation• No use outside research labs

3. Model-Based Field Scale DSS

• Computer Delivery– Including crop models

• Whopper Cropper (APSRU)

• PCYield (US: Florida, Iowa, Kansas, etc.)

– Pre-analyzed scenarios• SUR 95, SUR 2000 (Argentina)

• Other Delivery Methods– CIAT DSS Booklets on Soil Management

PCYield©

• Target Audience: Farmers’ Advisors• Institutional aspects: Private Company-Public Research

partnership• Crop model based, Internet access to real time weather data• Delivery, Maintenance: Private Company• Target decisions (field scale):

– What and when to plant (variety, crop)– Assessment of weather risk– When and if to irrigate– Response to unexpected events (i.e., hail damage)– Users specify scenarios to compare with their normal management

practices

Getting Data via the Internet

Users Create Scenarios to Compare

Predicted Dryland Results

Seasonal Plant & Grain Growth

Status of Some Field-Specific DSS Tools

• PCYield – Used by national crop advice company (soybean, corn, wheat), 4 years

• CIAT DSS Tools – In use in several countries by researchers

• SUR 95, SUR 2000 – Unknown

• Whopper Cropper – In use in Australia by APSRU group

4. Technology Transfer

• Systems Approach

• USAID Project, 1983-93 (IBSNAT)

• Analyze production, economic, and uncertainty indicators for management options

• Evaluate predictions using experiments in which minimum data are collected

DSS Products

• DSSAT, Field-Scale- Biophysical Models (Crop, Soil, Weather), 17 Crops

- Risk Analysis (Biophysical and Economic)

- Data Entry and Manipulation Tools

- Utilities (graphics, data entry, management,…)

- Crop Rotation Analyzer

• GIS Spatial Analysis Products – GIS-DSSAT Linkage for Region Impact Assessment

– GIS Precision Agriculture Analyzer

• Designed for Use by Researchers

Development & Dissemination• Network of developers contributing models,

analysis tools, utilities, & data

• Minimum data set defined

• Standard formats, protocols for use, exchange

• Network of testers

• Packagers, maintainers, distributors

• Trainers

DSSAT v4.0

Impacts• Adopted by more than 1200 researchers in 90

countries

• Impacts of climate change; used in > 8 national & international projects worldwide

• Hundreds of applications independent of developers

• Participation of CGIAR, related centers, CRSPs

Important Issues• Target Decisions, Policies• Target Users, Beneficiaries• Information Content• Development Process• Institutional aspects

– Participation of Users– Diffusion, adoption of DSS (Scaling up)– Maintenance

• Time and resource requirements

GECAFS DSS?GECAFS DSS?