outlook of electric vehicles and smart...
TRANSCRIPT
Outlook of Electric Vehicles and Smart Grid
Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE
Academician, Chinese Academy of EngineeringFellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K.,
President, World Electric Vehicles AssociationPresident, Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific
Honorary Professor, University of Hong Kong
KEYNOTE SPEECH
VPPC 2010, Lille, FranceSeptember 1, 2010
Content• Global Sustainable Development
• Technical & Commercial Roadmaps of Electric Vehicles
• Smart Grid & Electric Vehicles
2003: Artic ice free by 2070
2008: Artic ice free by 2013 ?
<Automobile Related Issues
Sharp Increase on Fossil
Fuel Consumption
Worldwide Industry and
Technology Developments in
the 20th Century
Increase on Traffic Accidents
Increase on CO2 emission
(Global Warming)
Stress on Oil Reserve
Air Pollution (Nitrogen oxides,
Particulates, Ozone)
Problems from Automobiles
-Population Growth
-Vehicle Population
Growth
Automobile Revolution in New Century
• Energy: Efficient, Alternative Fuels.
• Environment: Minimal Emissions.
• Safety and Intelligent.
• Powertrain: Electrification and hybridization
• Alternative Fuels
• Control: New Control Theory and Algorithm, Computerization and Digitalization
• Future Vehicle: 4 wheels +computer
Fuel-and Powertrain Strategy
Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor :Good Products;
Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model.
Infrastructure
ProductsBusiness
models
EV
Market
Success
Good Products:High Performance @ Reasonable Cost
I: Integration of Automotive Technology and Electrical Technology
A: Alliance among Auto Makers and Key Component Suppliers
Chasis & Body
Technology
Powertrain Technology
Energy Storage Technology
I+A
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Powertrain Integration
Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience
Parking
Durations
14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per day
Charging
Points
1 charging point per
vehicle
< 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point per
vehicle
Power &
Charing time
Requirements
Low power and
normal charging
(e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs)
High power and quick charging
(e.g. 22 kW, 2 hrs)
Low power and
normal charging
(e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)
Swapping, Intelligent Charging, and Energy
Storage Charging
Comparison of Gas Station & Storage Quick Charging
Innovative Business Model
Intelligent Management
Card Payment Sell EV Without
Battery
Lease Battery
Swapping & Charging
Innovative Business ModelEV Industry is Disruptive Industry
By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes, China may reach 15-20%
Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
Un
it S
hip
me
nts
Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio
Scenario's 2008 2009 20152020
(% of total car
sales)
Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12%
F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7%
Conservative Scenario 5,103 7,550 520,953 4%
16
Two routes to millions of EVs?
Today
China, India
Sophisticated consumers
High precision manufacture
Specialist technology
High cost base
New consumers
Access to materials
Low cost technology
Low cost manufacture
100’s of
EVs
100 million
e-bikes
100,000’s of EVs
2020
? millions of
EVs
? millions of
EVs
? millions of e-4 wheelers
Collaborations
Electric Vehicle Roadmap
Public familiarity and acceptance: Formula 3
2010 2012 2016 2020
100s of EVs 100,000+ vehicle fleets??? 10 — 15%
new vehicle sales1st models
available
2nd Gen EVs
‘Real’ electric innovationMass market EVs
Maintain current momentum Real ‘electric innovation’
● Early adopters
● Government
procurement
● ‘Clean Cities’
Current industry
focus
Current
government
focus
● Fleet experience
reliability
driver
response
● Infrastructure
stdn
● Cost reduction
● Acceleration of
consumer interest
and uptake
Phase 1
Recession, EU and US regulations… CO2, energy security……
Phase 2
Page 18 / Patrick Oliva
Worldwide comparison of well to wheel CO2 emissions per km driven with a BEV (15 kWh or 25 kWh/100 km) and ICE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 50 100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
g CO2 /kWh
g C
O2 /km
Core Technology: Energy Storage & Propulsion
蓄电装置
储氢装置
燃料电池堆电动机
多能源控制器
Technology Roadmap
FCV
E-REV
BEV
BEV———Battery Electric Vehicles
E-REV——Range Extender & Hybrid Electric Vehicles
FCV——Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
Application of Electric Vehicles
Heavy Load
Stop-and-go
Du
ty C
ycle
Drive Cycle
Continuous
Light Load
City Intra-Urban Highway-Cycle Highway
Hybrid Engineering Philosophy: 1+1>2Hybrid Mule = Horse (Mother) + Moke (Father)
Mule is the hybrid of horse and moke, mule takes the best DNA of horse and moke, hence more powerful and endurance.
HEV should have added value gained from the integration of engine propulsion and motor propulsion, fully sizes the intelligent electrical, electronic and control technologies
Hybridization and Fuel Efficiency Potential/
ICE Power
Electric Power
Plug-in
Smart Starter
Fun
ctio
nal
ity/ • Engine start-
stop at idle• Engine off on
deceleration
• Mild regenerative braking
• Electric power assist
• Full regenerative braking
• Engine cycle optimization
• Electric launch
• Limited pure electric drive
• Engine downsize
• Plug-in rechargeable
• More electric drive during charge-depletion
• Reduced refueling
• Full-function electric drive
• Initial pure electric range
• Significantly reduced refueling
• Plug-in recharge only
• 100% pure electric range/100%
• No refueling
FUEL
ECO
NO
MY • +2-4% • +10-20% • +30-50% Cars
• +20-40% Trucks
• +100% in charge depletion/100%
• same as full hybrid afterward
• Electricity only in EV range/在EV
• same as full hybrid afterward
• Electricity only
Start-Stop Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Range Extender EV/
Electric Vehicle/
Hybrid Vehicle Architecture
ICE
VSI1 EM1
VSI2 EM2
BAT
Trans.
Fuel
R
C
S mechanical link
electrical link
Ring gear
Sun gear
Carrier
R2
R1
R3
R
TR TC
C
S
TS
ICE
VSI1 EM1
VSI2 EM2
BAT
Trans.
Fuel
VSI2 EM2
ICE
VSI1 EM1
BAT Trans. Fuel
VSI2 EM2
ICE
VSI1 EM1
BAT Trans. Fuel
ICE
VSI1 EM1
VSI2 EM2
BAT
Trans.
Fuel
Fig. 1; Series-parallel hybrid Vehicle using a planetary gear unit Fig. 1a; Planetary gear unit
Fig. 2; Series hybrid Vehicle Fig. 3; Parallel hybrid Vehicle
Fig. 4; ICE Vehicle Fig. 5; Battery powered Electric Vehicle
Motor Technology : Two Types of Configurations
Motor : PM Motor or Induction Motor
Straight Type and V-Type IPM Rotor
2010 Prius motor efficiency contour 2000 Prius motor efficiency contour
Efficiency Counters
Temperature Monitoring, Cooling, Fault Tolerance
EVT – Electric Variable Transmission
Ultracapacitor
Short-Period
Energy Source
Flywheel
Electrochemical
Batteries
Rechargeable
Long Period
Energy Source
Gasoline + ICE
Fuel Cell Non-
Rechargeable
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
Sp
ecif
ic P
ow
er (
W/k
g)
Energy Sources Comparison
Cycle Life > 2000
Cost < RMB 3000 (USD 375)/kWh
Reliability: Volume of million vehicles
Mileage of 150000 km
Comparison of Various Batteries
Circular hollow battery
Plum-shaped hollow battery
Square hollow battery
Cellular hollow battery
Cascadedbattery
Rectangular cascaded battery
Yintong Energy’s Batteries
Cell Manufacturing单体电池的制造工艺
Lithium-ion Battery
Battery Management System – Architecture电池包管理系统
US DOE Program 美国能源部研发项目
Transportation
68.3%
Hybrid and Electric SystemsDAVID HOWELL
Vehicle and Systems Simulation and Testing
LEE SLEZAK
Energy Storage R&D
DAVID HOWELL
Advanced Power Electronics and Electric
Motors R&D
SUSAN ROGERS &
STEVEN BOYD
Complements hardware R&D activities through vehicle simulation and testing
Battery technology R&D for hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles
R&D for electric and electronic devices needed for drivetrain electrification
48
Battery R&D Program Activities 美国能源部电池研发项目
AdvancedMaterialsResearch
High Energy & High Power
Cell R&D
Full SystemDevelopment and
Testing
Commercialization
• High energy cathodes
• Alloy, Lithium anodes
• High voltage electrolytes
• Lithium air couples
• High rate electrodes
• High energy couples
• Fabrication of high E cells
• Ultracapacitor carbons
• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems
• 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems
• Advanced lead acid
• Ultracapacitors
The Energy Storage effort is engage in a wide rage of topics, forum fundamental materials work through battery development and testing
BEV (Global)
1970 20001980
Accumulated Number
1.3million
Exceed BEV
Prius
BEV & HEV Production日本混合动力产业化
50
Japan EV Roadmap
From HEV to PHEV and EV
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Battery capacity
(vs.current level)1 time 3 times
Battery cost 1/2 1/10
●Electric vehicle (EV)
Traveling distance
on a full charge 200 km 500 km
-Improvement of battery performance
Leap in cruising distance
Drastic cost reduction
1.5 times
1 time
7 times
1/7 1/40
130 km
-Development of post-Li ion batteries
●Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)
-Improvement of Li ion battery performance
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Battery capacity(vscurrent level) 1 time 3 times
Battery cost 1/2 1/10
●Electric vehicles (EV)
Traveling distance on a full charge
200 km 500 km
-Improvement of battery performance
Leap in driving distanceDrastic cost reduction
1.5 times
1 time
7 times
1/7 1/40
130 km
-Development of post
-Li ion batteries
●Plug- in hybrid vehicles (PHEV)
-Improvement of Li ion battery performance
Japan Recent EV Development
• iMiEVs from Mitsubishi that will be made available in 2010.
• Network of EV charging stations.
• Launch a competitive tende to select an EV infrastructure service provider.
日本的经验:Japan Experience:Alliance between OEM & Battery Manufacturer
ToyotaPanasonic
Nissan
Mitsubishi
Changzhu
Tan
Dalian
Nanchang
Shanghai
Shenzheng
Wuhan
Beijing
Chongqing
Promotion of EV/HEV in 20 Cities
Subsidize Private Buyers in 5 Cities
Presently Over 8000 EVs/HEVs
• Each city over 1000
vehicles within 3 years
• Priority in public
transportation
• Incentives from central
and local governments
• Incubation of demand
and market
Kunming
Jinan
Hangzhou
Changchun
Hefei
54
Shanghai World Expo Demonstration:
Over 1000 BEV/HEV/FCV
1
2
3
4
Buses VIP Vehicles
Mini EVTourist EV
5555
Made in China: Low-speed EVs in ChinaThe Future of EVs?
Chinese Transportation Structure
Structure of Points-lines-Areas
Points—larger city•Public transportation •Private car
Lines—city-city•Railway•Airline•Commercial vehicle
Areas—town•Public transportation•Personal car and E-bike
57
What it is Smart Grid?
It is intelligent
It allows two-way
communication
It allows real-time
monitoring & control
Smart Grid
Source: Altalink, Alberta, Canada
Electric Power & Communication
Infrastructures
Central GeneratingStation
Step-Up Transformer
DistributionSubstation
ReceivingStation
DistributionSubstation
DistributionSubstation
Commercial
Industrial Commercial
Gas Turbine
RecipEngine
Cogeneration
RecipEngine
Fuel cell
Micro-turbine
Flywheel
Residential
Photovoltaics
Batteries
Residential Data
Concentrator
Control Center
Data network Users
2. Information Infrastructure
1.Power Infrastructure
Source: EPRI 59
Stability use for renewable energy by electric vehicle The renewable energy of sunlight, wind, etc. into which the amount of power generation
greatly changes depending on the weather and time is saved in storage battery (LiB) with high efficiency.
Solar power Wind power
※Uncontrollable electric power
Charging / Discharging
Renewable Energy
6 12 18 24
2.5[kw]
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
Example: Equipment of one house(southeast2.6kW+southwest1.4kW)
Fine
Cloudy
Rain
Source data:the Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) HP
Battery (LiB)
Smart House
Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery
Solar Cell
SmartMeter
AC
DC
AC
DC
Charge
Back up
Mid-nightelectricity
Grid
Ch
arge
Appliances
Distribute
Converter
EV Battery(LiB)
Buy
Sell
Smart House Smart Community Smart Grid
Self-sufficiency of energy supply
Micro-gridNetwork
Connection to “Grid”
Scenario for introducing Smart Grid
Evolution from “Smart House” to “Smart Community”, “Smart Grid”
Fossil fuel
Renewable energy
EVs would be plugged into home outlet for hours.
High-speed response with synchronization could be realized
by using self-terminal frequency measurement.
Maintaining battery condition and charging request by itself
Autonomous
Distributed V2G
Power Grid
Power Grid
Load
Distributed
Generator
Wind
Photovoltaic
Heat Pump
Water Heater
Ubiquitous Power Grid
Load Dispatching Center
Thermal
Hydro Nuclear
Regional Load
Dispaching Center
Heat Storage
ECU / BMU
Battery
バッテリ
Inverter
Motor
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Electric Vehicle
DC-DCConverter
Battery
Wind
Distributed Grid
Microgrid
Battery
Smart Charging
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)
Pump Storage
Tie-line
...Centralized control scheme dispatching LFC signals to storage devices
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
Fre
quency d
evia
tion[H
z]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-400-300-200-100
0100200300400
Pow
er
[MW
]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-200-150-100-50
050
100150200
Pow
er
[MW
]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
Fre
que
ncy
devia
tion[
Hz]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-400-300-200-100
0100200300400
Pow
er [
MW
]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-200-150-100-50
050
100150200
Pow
er [
MW
]
LFC without V2G LFC with V2G (200[MW]=5[kW]*4e4)
(a) Frequency deviations
(c) Power of system b
(b) Power of system a
V2G works as a spinning reserve faster than thermal power governor.
Quality of frequency is improved, and oscillation is also damped.
Response of thermal power generator become to be dominated by FFC-TBC,
and it is said V2G don’t disturb power grid LFC.
Time [s]
Δfb
Δfa ΔfbΔfa
ThermalThermal
ΔPt
Disturbance
Load
Thermal
Load
V2G
V2G
Thermal
Load
ΔPt
Disturbance
Load
-ΔPt-ΔPt
Time [s]
Time [s]
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Fre
quency d
evia
tion [
Hz]
-6-5-4-3-2-10123456
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
V2G
pow
er
[kW
]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Batt
ery
SO
C [
%]
+3σ
-3σ
Moving average
Plug-out : 90[%]
Charge energy from 20 to 90[%] 11.59[kWh] (0.97[kW])
Additional cycles for grid V2G+ : 19.63[kWh] (1.64[kW]), V2G- : 7.78[kWh] (0.65[kW])
Time [hour]
Charge
Discharge
Maintaining battery condition and replying charging request…OK
Plug-in : 20[%]
(a) Frequency deviation
(b) V2G power output and battery SOC
7pm 7am
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
(0/0
)
(1.5
/3)
(3/6
)
(6/1
2)
(9/1
8)
Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2
Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2
BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr)
INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM
MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE
With no control maximum running average is 0.918 MW and
instantaneous maximum is 6.952 MW
Pow
er (M
W)
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
50
0(1
/1.6
)
10
00
(2/3
.2)
15
00
(3/4
.8)
20
00
(4/6
.4)
25
00
(5/8
)
30
00
(6/9
.6)
Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2
Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2
With no control maximum running average is 0.918 MW and
instantaneous maximum is 6.952 MW
No of vehicles (MW/MWhr)
MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE
INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM
Po
wer
(M
W)
Simulation results – Power fluctuation and lost energy
(a-1) Power fluctuations in case BESS (a-2) Power fluctuations in case V2G
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
(0/0
)
(1.5
/3)
(3/6
)
(6/1
2)
(9/1
8)
Wind Pattern 1
Wind Pattern 2
BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr)
Ener
gy (M
Wh
rs)
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
50
0(1
/1.6
)
10
00
(2/3
.2)
15
00
(3/4
.8)
20
00
(4/6
.4)
25
00
(5/8
)
30
00
(6/9
.6)
Wind Pattern 1
Wind Pattern 2
No of vehicles (MW/MWhr)
En
erg
y (M
Wh
rs)
(b-1) Lost energy of RES in case BESS (b-2) Lost energy of RES in case V2G
ADAPTING: THE NEW ENERGY PARADIGM
Speaker: Professor C.C.ChanDate: January 2010
World Electric Vehicle Association President: Prof. C.C. Chan
Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP)
Electric Drive Transportation Association, USA (EDTA)
European Electric Road Vehicle Association
Chinese Electrotechnical Society (CES)
Society of Automotive Engineering (SAE- China)
www.evs25.org
SUCCESS
SUCCESS
Inspiration
Imagination
Innovation
Integration
Implementation
Investment
Thank you!