outermost regions & climate change antónio domingos abreu [email protected]
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Small Islands and OR’s
Reduced size Limited natural resources Natural disasters Isolated Vulnerable and exposed economies High population density Vulnerable natural systems
Main climate change impacts - OR’s and small islands
Sea level rise
Changes in wind and rain regimes
Soil balance changes
Changes of local wave and near shore sea conditions
Coastal based socieconomical activities
Climate Change - main trends
Increase of mean temperature
Sea level rise
Less precipitation
More frequent extreme events
Special issues
Development, sustainability and equity, Sea level rise Coastal changes Biological systems and biodiversity Water, agriculture and fisheries Human health, settlements, infrastructures
and tourism
Development, sustainability and equity
< 1% of GHG contribution
Exposed and vulnerable economies
Need of scale adaptation measures
Sea level rise
5mm/year in the next century
Social and economical implications
Adaptation within their natural and social boundaries...
Coastal zones
Human contribution to coastal zone change
In the next 50 to 100 years these changes will increase
Need to assure resilience of coastal zones
Higher social and economical costs of adaptation
Natural systems and biodiversity
Natural systems are the basis of the economical stability of OR’s
33% of the endemic species of the flora are insular endemisms
23% of the insular bird species are endangered
Changes in the composition, structure and dynamics of natural systems
Water, agriculture & fisheriess
Water availability and food production will always be critical factors in the OR’s
Most of water is from rain origin
Loss of soil, erosion, saline intrusion,
Changes in the abundance and distribution of fisheries
Human health, settlements, infrastructures and tourism
Potential increase of biological induced and water related diseases
More critical situations linked to extreme events
Vulnerability of infrasctructures, including touristic and those located on risk zones,
Adequated and adapted management
Information
Monitoring
Mitigation
Adaptation
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
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O2 (
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Ano
A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-1
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A1 CCSR A1FI CCSR A1T CCSR A2 CCSR B1 CCSR B2 CCSR A2 CGCM2 B2 CGCM2 A1 CSIRO A2 CSIRO B1 CSIRO B2 CSIRO A2 ECHAM4 B2 ECHAM4 A2 GFDL B2 GFDL A1FI HADCM3 A2 HADCM3 B1 HADCM3 B2 HADCM3 A2CSM NCAR A2PCM NCAR B2PCM NCAR
Scenarios & models
Precipitation - Madeira (2071-2100)
Dry Winters & wet Summers
Significant loss of precipitation
Perda anual (in mm)
Temperature Madeira (2071-2100)
Sectoral Impact Assessment
Water Forest Biodiversity Agriculture Tourism Human health Energy ...
Potential Impacts on forest and agriculture
Changes in the distribution zones
- altitude;
Higher forest fire risks;
Changes on primary production.
Média 1970-2004 Funchal
Impacts on Tourism
QuickTime™ e a³ descompressor³são necessários para ver esta imagem.
Comfort
Health risks
Landscape
Natural disaters
Levels of air polution
Contamination vectors
Transmission dinamics
Regional Climatic changes
• Extreme events
• Temperature
• Precipitation
Potential effects on human health
• Death/diseases due to temperature &
climatic extreme events (floods/dry/rain)
• air polution related effects
• Diseases promoted by water and food
• Diseases transmited by bilogical vectors
Human Health
The near future
Climate change is a fact It is prioritary to monitor the trends Mitigation and adaptation measuresParticipation
Is this possibe to deal with climate change challenges on a OR’s scale?