outage coordination overview d.w. rickerson ercot outage supervisor 12/1/2008
TRANSCRIPT
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Outage Coordination Overview
D.W. RickersonERCOT Outage Supervisor12/1/2008
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decisions
Outage Base case
N-1 Secure Market
Solution
Approved outagesLoad
Forecast for recent
day
Outage Evaluation Process
Network Model
Supplied every 2 weeks
Includes latest
system changes
Basecase ConditioningProcess completed byOperations Planning
Base case
Generic dispatch
(N-1 secure)
No outages
SPS/RAP
updates
Recent Generation
Plan
Conditioned
Approved and
Proposed outages
Ap
pro
ved
Ou
tag
es
Day-Ahead and Real Time Analysis
Ou
tag
e N
ote
s
Reliability
Coordination
Economic
Coordination
Outage Coordination Process
Market ParticipantModeling Group
Market ParticipantOutage Group
SR
s
Outages B
ase
case
w/ co
ntin
ge
ncy file
Contingdefinitions
Outage Coordination Contingency Definitions
Forced
Outage Scheduler MIS Posting
ERCOT Modeling
ERCOT Oper Planning
ERCOT Outage Cord.
ERCOT Operations
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Reliability Coordination• Objective – find a market solution that reliably allows a combination of
requested outages to be approved (cost not part of the evaluation).
• Protocols – 8.3.1 ERCOT shall approve Planned Outages and accept Maintenance Outages
of Transmission Facilities schedules unless, in ERCOT’s determination, the requested Transmission Facility Planned Outages or Maintenance Outages of Transmission Facilities would cause ERCOT to violate applicable reliability standards.
– 8.3.6 If ERCOT believes it cannot meet the applicable reliability standards and has exercised reasonable options, ERCOT shall have the authority to withdraw approval for a Planned Outage or Maintenance Outage schedule.
– 8.3.7 In considering TSP requests, ERCOT shall give priority to approved
Planned Outage and Maintenance Outage schedules previously posted to the ERCOT MIS.
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8.3.10 Evaluation of Transmission Facility Planned Outage or Maintenance Outage Requests
ERCOT shall evaluate requests for approval of Transmission Facility Planned Outages and Maintenance Outages to determine if any one or a combination of proposed Outages may cause ERCOT to violate applicable reliability standards. ERCOT’s evaluations shall take into consideration factors including, but not limited to, the following:
(1) Forecast of peak Demand conditions;
(2) Outage plans submitted by Resource Entities and TSPs pursuant to Section 8.1, Planned Outages and Maintenance Outages of Transmission and Resource Facilities;
(3) Forced Outages of Transmission Facilities;
(4) Potential for the proposed Outages to cause irresolvable transmission overloads or voltage supply concerns based on the indications from contingency analysis software;
(5) Previously approved Planned Outages and Maintenance Outages;
(6) Impacts on the transfer capability of DC Ties; and
(7) Good Utility Practice with respect to Transmission Facility maintenance.
Reliability Coordination
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Economic Coordination
• Objective – find a market solution that reliably allows a combination of approve outages (cost not part of the evaluation).
• In the course of finding a market solution, if a Coordinator has to substantially deviate from a generation pattern he has pulled in from real-time he may consider investigating it as a economically sensitive outage.
– Investigates the root cause• Problem associated with another transmission outage (combination)• Problem associated with a resource outage• Problem associated with wind• Problem associated with season or time of day
– Remedies include• Contacting the “last in” submitter to request a reschedule• Moving transmission outage to coincide with an existing resource outage• Requesting a change in the time-of-day the outage occurs
– If no resolution is found, Outage Coordination Supervisor has the ability to escalate the “costly” outage to ERCOT Director and PUCT.
• Approximately 30 to 40 of these types of outages each year.
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Outage NotesOutage Notes for Saturday April 12, 2008
The following outages were studied with an estimated ERCOT load of 34,000 Mw
ONCOR has a one day outage on the Graham (GRSES) to Long Creek Switching Station (LNCRK) 345kV Line (6024_A) Saturday 04/12/08 from 06:00 until
20:00 to pull wire.
Estimated emergency restoration time is for 9 hours.
Note 1: The below contingency is with Oklaunion on line.
Contingency: FISHER ROAD SW- OKL & BOWMAN 345KV
Overloaded Element a: ABSO _PUTN_1A @ ABSO
Overloaded Element b: ABSO _PUTN_1E @ POTOSI_T
Overloaded Element c: PCN_PUT @ PCNBYU
Overloaded Element d: 6070_A @ PUTN
Overloaded Element e: 6856_B @ BMRTN
TOAP: STNET studies indicate lowering the Wind generation relieved the overloaded elements.
(S4 & S5) This outage may affect the West to North and the North to West import. The Operations Engineering Group has been consulted and will determine operational limits to support this outage.
CPL/AEP has daily outages on the Nelson Sharpe (N_SHARPE) to Ajo (AJO) and the AJO to Rio Hondo (RIOHONDO) 345 kV circuits (AJO_SHARPE_1A,
AJO_RHOND_1A) starting Monday 04/07/08 until Tuesday 04/08/08 from 05:00 until 13:00 (daily) and from Tuesday 04/08/08 until Monday 04/21/08 from
23:00 until 13:00 (daily) to cut in new AJO substation.
Recommended Generation: Silas Ray
Estimated emergency restoration time is 6 hours.
Contingency: NORTH EDINBURG - RIO HONDO 345KV
Overloaded Element a: SMCAL_STWRT_1A @ S_MCALLN
Overloaded Element b: SMCAL _ STWRT_1B @ L_MILPAS
TOAP 1: STNET studies indicate increasing SILAS RAY generation and lowering FRONTERA, NEDIN and DUKE generation relieved the overloaded elements.
TOAP 2: See CPL/AEP Mitigation Plan at the end of this document for post- contingency load shed information.
Note: The North Weslaco (NWESLACO) to North Alamo (N_ALAMO) 138kV circuit is tied together via Weslaco Switch (WESLACO). To simulate this in your case, close the following devices at WESLACO: 6678, 2384, 2385, 2386 and 6677.
This outage may affect the Valley Import Limit. The Operations Engineering Group has been consulted and will determine operational limits to support this outage.
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Generation Pattern Tool• Using Pi data
– Pulls a historic generation pattern (including outages) for a given historic point in time.
– Useful in obtaining a real Market Solution for a given load at a given time.
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Conditioning Generation Profiles
Conditioning is required in order to simulate a worse case (yet still reasonable) scenario for outage approval.
1. As cases are scaled some generation needs to stay at a set amount
• Wind is blocked to 3500-MW– System won’t support higher export
• Nuclear is blocked to PMAX• Some coal is blocked to PMAX
2. Generation in historically troublesome spots is often blocked so that outages in those areas will show up in the analysis.
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Load Forecast
• Two different Load forecasts used:
– Short-term process uses the mid-term forecast• Same forecast used by Day-Ahead study• Studies continually update for forecast
– Long-term process uses the long-term forecast (planning forecast) that is based on a typical year and scaled to expected demand.
• Long-term coordinator will adjust according to his own experience
• Typically study cases that are 3%-5% higher than the forecast.
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Outage Count• Approximately 35,000 Outages a year
21322, 60%
3877, 11%
9000, 25%
1500, 4%
Transmission -- Planned, Forced, ExtensionsResource -- Planned, Forced, ExtensionsCancelled, rejected, withdrawn, equipment status change, tentativeMisc.
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Network Model
• Approx. 1500 Service Requests (SRs) annually
• Majority come from 16 different Market Participant modeling groups.
• Approx. 12 ERCOT FTE’s to maintain model (Zonal)
• 54,963 elements in Model– 3759 Substations– 5515 Lines – 5043 Loads– 37755 Breakers/Switches– 1343 Transformers – 934 Shunts – 614 Units
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Outage Coordination Contingency Definitions
• No-Wind Contingency
• Generator plus line Contingencies
• Double element Contingencies– Different than double circuits
• Double Unit Contingencies
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MIS Posting