our g-enealogy brough turner founder
TRANSCRIPT
Our G-enealogy
Brough TurnerFounder & CTO
http://blogs.broughturner.com
2
Our G-enealogy
• Brief history of cellular wireless telephony– Radio technology: TDMA, CDMA, OFDMA
– Mobile core network architectures
• Demographics & market trends today– 3.5G, WiMAX, LTE & 4G migration paths
• Implications for the next 2-5 years
How the history of cellular technology helps us
understand 4G technology and business models
and their likely impact on wireless broadband
Google“3G
Tutorial”“4G
Tutorial”
3
Outrageous ideas
• 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz
• 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15%– * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution
• Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX– e.g. user owned versus service provider owned
• Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access
• Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all– License exempt on secondary access basis
4
Source: ITU World ICT Indicators, June 2008
Mobiles overtake fixed
5
Mobile GenerationsG Summary Data Rates
1 Analog Typical 2.4 Kbps; max 22 Kbps
2 Digital – TDMA, CDMA 9.6 - 14.4 Kbps (circuit data)
2.5 GPRS – mux packets in voice timeslots
15 - 40 Kbps
3 Improved modulation, using CDMA variants
50 – 144 Kbps (1xRTT); 200 – 384 Kbps (UMTS); 500 Kbps – 2.4 Mbps (EVDO)
3.5 More modulation tweaks 2–14 Mbps (HSPA), then 28 Mbps & 42/84 Mbps future evolution
4 New modulation (OFDMA); Multi-path (MIMO); All IP
LTE: potentially >100 Mbps with adequate spectrum (20 MHz)
6
Enormous technology change
but
commercial issues trump technology
and
legal-regulatory trumps all
8
Origins of Wireless Communications
• 1864: James Clark Maxwell– Predicts existence of radio waves
• 1886: Heinrich Rudolph Hertz– Demonstrates radio waves
• 1895-1901: Guglielmo Marconi– Demonstrates wireless communications over
increasing distances
• Also in the 1890s– Nikola Tesla, Alexander Stepanovich Popov,
Jagdish Chandra Bose and others, demonstrate forms of wireless communications
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First Mobile Radio Telephone, 1924
Courtesy of Rich Howard
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Cellular Mobile Telephony Antenna diversity Cellular concept
● Bell Labs (1957 & 1960)
Frequency reuse● typically every 7 cells
Handoff as caller moves Modified CO switch
● HLR, paging, handoffs
Sectors improve reuse● every 3 cells possible
11
First Generation (nearly all retired)
• Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS)
– US trials 1978; deployed in Japan (’79) & US (’83)– 800 MHz; two 20 MHz bands; TIA-553
• Nordic Mobile Telephony (NMT)
– Sweden, Norway, Demark & Finland– Launched 1981– 450 MHz; later at 900 MHz (NMT900)
• Total Access Communications System (TACS)
– British design; similar to AMPS; deployed 1985
12
2nd Generation – digital systems
• Leverage technology to increase capacity– Speech compression; digital signal processing
• Utilize/extend “Intelligent Network” concepts– Improve fraud prevention; Add new services
• Wide diversity of 2G systems– IS-54/ IS-136 Digital AMPS; PDC (Japan)– DECT and PHS; iDEN – IS-95 CDMA (cdmaOne)– GSM
13
2G “CDMA” (cdmaOne)
• Code Division Multiple Access– all users share same frequency band– discussed in detail later as CDMA is basis for 3G
• Qualcomm demo in 1989– claimed improved capacity & simplified planning
• First deployment in Hong Kong late 1994
• Major success in Korea (1M subs by 1996)
• Adopted by Verizon and Sprint in US
• Easy migration to 3G (same modulation)
14
GSM – Global System for Mobile
• Originally “Groupe Spécial Mobile ”– joint European effort beginning 1982– Focus: seamless roaming all Europe
• Services launched 1991– time division multiple access (8 users per 200KHz)– 900 MHz band; later 1800 MHz; then 850/1900 MHz
• GSM – dominant world standard today– well defined interfaces; many competitors; lowest
cost to deploy– network effect took hold in late 1990s
15
GSM Dominant Today
• GSM+3GSM used by 88% of subscribers worldwide
• Asia leads with 42% of all mobile subscriptions– AT&T and T-Mobile use GSM/3GSM in US today
Source: Wireless Intelligence / GSM Association
GSM Subscribers
16
GSM substantially enhancedWidely deployed significant payback for enhancements
• HSCSD - high speed circuit-switched data
• GPRS - general packet radio service
• Synchronization between cells – Minimize interference; help fix mobile’s location
• AMR vocoder – increase capacity (& fidelity)
• Frequency hopping (to overcome fading)
• Discontinuous transmission (more calls/ cell)
• Cell overlays with reuse partioning
17
1G, 2G, 3G Multi-Access Technologies
Courtesy of Petri Possi, UMTS World
4G and future wireless systems optimize acombination of frequency, time and codinge.g. OFDMA & SC-FDMA (discussed later)
18
2G & 3G – Code Division Multiple Access
• Spread spectrum modulation– originally developed for the military– resists jamming and many kinds of interference– coded modulation hidden from those w/o the code
• All users share same (large) block of spectrum– one for one frequency reuse– soft handoffs possible
• All 3G radio standards based on CDMA– CDMA2000, W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA
19
Courtesy of Suresh Goyal & Rich Howard
20
The 3G Vision
• Universal global roaming– Sought 1 standard (not 7), (but got 3:
3GSM, CDMA 2000 & TD-SCDMA)
• Increased data rates
• Multimedia (voice, data & video)
• Increased capacity (more spectrally efficient)
• Data-centric architecture (ATM at first, later IP)
• But deployment took much longer than expected– No killer data app; new spectrum costly; telecom bubble
burst; much of the vision was vendor-driven
21
3G Radio technology today
• CDMA 2000 – Multi Carrier CDMA– Evolution of IS-95 CDMA; but now a dead end
• UMTS (W-CDMA, HSPA) – Direct Spread CDMA– Defined by 3GPP
• TD-SCDMA – Time Division Synchronous CDMA– Defined by Chinese Academy of Telecommunications
Technology under the Ministry of Information Industry
Paired spectrum bands
Single spectral band with time division duplexing
22
Why CDMA 2000 lost out
• Had better migration story from 2G to 3G– Evolution from original Qualcomm CDMA (IS-95)– cdmaOne operators didn’t need additional spectrum
• Higher data rates than UMTS, at least at first
• Couldn’t compete with GSM’s critical mass– Last straw when Verizon Wireless selected 3GPP’s
Long Term Evolution (LTE) for their 4G network– Verizon selection 11/07– Qualcomm abandons further development 11/08
23
Japan
USA
3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project)
• Partnership of 6 regional standards groups, which translate 3GPP specifications to regional standards
• Controls evolution of GSM, 3GSM (UMTS, WCDMA, HSPA) & LTE
23
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UMTS (3GSM) is market leader
• GSM evolution: W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSPA, +… – leverages GSM’s dominant position
• Legally mandated in Europe and elsewhere
• Requires substantial new spectrum– 5 MHz each way (symmetric) at a minimum
• Slow start (was behind CDMA 2000), but now the accepted leader– Network effect built on GSM’s >80% market share– Surely LTE will benefit in the same fashion…
25
TD-SCDMA (Time division synchronous CDMA)
• Chinese development– IPR bargaining tool with West? Late to market, but
big deployment plans
• Single spectral band– unpaired spectrum; as little as 1.6 MHz; time
division duplex (TDD) with high spectral efficiency; good match for asymmetrical traffic!
• Power amplifiers must be very linear– relatively hard to meet specifications
26
China 3G
• Largest mobile market in world (630 M subs)– Largest population in world (1.3 billion)
• Home-brew 3G standard: TD-SCDMA– 3G licenses were delayed until TD-SCDMA worked– 2008 trials: 10 cities, 15K BSs & 60K handsets
• 3G granted January 2009 – China Mobile: TD-SCDMA– China Unicom: 3GSM (UMTS)– China Telecom: CDMA 2000
27
3G Adoption – DoCoMo Japan
Potential todiscontinue2G servicesin 2010 …
2G: mova
3G: FOMA
28
3G Subscribers (2Q 2008)
• 18% on 3G; 82% on 2G; 0.01% on 1G
• EU & US 3G penetration approaching 30%
• US penetration rate soaring
Source: comScore MobiLens
3-month averagesending June 2008
& June 2007
All mobile subscribersages 13+
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3G data-only subscribers
• Soaring adoption of 3G “USB Data Modems”– 92% of all 3G data bytes in Finland in 2H07
• Informa on EU 3G devices, May 2008– 101.5M 3G devices:
64 M handsets, 37M 3G data modems
• In-Stat/ ABI Research– In-Stat: 5M cellular modems in 2006– ABI Research 300% growth in 2007, i.e. 20M?
Enormous growth, from a relatively small base…
30
Diverse Mobile Wireless Spectrum
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Wireless Migration
32
Wire
less
cap
acity
/ t
hrou
ghpu
t
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
First cell phones
AMPS
GSMCDMA
Wi-FiWi-FiWiMAXWiMAX
LTELTE
Increasing throughput a
nd capacityUMTS/HSPA2G2G
3G3G
4G4G
OFDM OFDM
→→OFDMAOFDMAMIMOMIMO
33
ITU-T Framework
3GPP3GPP – WWAN (wireless wide area network)
IEEE 802.16IEEE 802.16 – WMAN (wireless metropolitan area network)
IEEE 802.11IEEE 802.11 – WLAN (wireless local area network)
ITU-TITU-T – United Nations telecommunications
standards organization
Accepts detailed standards contributions from 3GPP,
IEEE and other groups
Pervasive connectivityPervasive connectivityWLAN - WMAN - WWANWLAN - WMAN - WWAN
34
ITU Mobile Telecommunications
• IMT-2000– Global standard for third generation (3G) wireless– Detailed specifications from 3GPP, 3GPP2, ETSI and others
• IMT-Advanced– New communications framework: deployment ~2010 to 2015 – Data rates to reach around 100 Mbps for high mobility and
1 Gbps for nomadic networks (i.e. WLANs)– High mobility case via either or both evolved LTE & WiMAX
– 802.11ac and 802.11ad addressing the nomadic case
35
LTE highlights
• Sophisticated multiple access schemes– DL: OFDMA with Cyclic Prefix (CP)– UL: Single Carrier FDMA (SC-FDMA) with CP
• Adaptive modulation and coding– QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM– 1/3 coding rate, two 8-state constituent encoders,
and a contention-free internal interleaver
• Advanced MIMO spatial multiplexing– (2 or 4) x (2 or 4) downlink and uplink
36
4G Technology – OFDMA
• Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access– Supercedes CDMA used in all 3G variants
• OFDMA = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) plus statistical multiplexing– Optimization of time, frequency & code multiplexing
• OFDM already deployed in 802.11a & 802.11g– Took Wi-Fi from 11 Mbps to 54 Mbps & beyond
37
Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
– Many closely-spaced sub-carriers, chosen to be orthogonal, thus eliminating inter-carrier interference
– Varies bits per sub-carrier based on instantaneous received power
38
Statistical Multiplexing (in OFDMA)
• Dynamically allocate user data to sub-carriers based on instantaneous data rates and varying sub-carrier capacities
• Highly efficient use of spectrum
• Robust against fading, e.g. for mobile operation
39
FDMA vs. OFDMA
• OFDMA more frequency efficient
• Dynamically map traffic to frequencies based on their instantaneous throughput
FDMAFDMA
ChannelGuard band
OFDMAOFDMA
40
4G Technology - MIMO Multiple Input Multiple Output smart antenna technology Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase
spectral efficiency (bps per Hz), range and directionality
41
Municipal Multipath Environment
42
SDMA = Smart Antenna Technologies
• Beamforming– Use multiple-antennas to
spatially shape the beam
• Spatial Multiplexing a.k.a. Collaborative MIMO– Multiple streams transmitted– Multi-antenna receivers
separate the streams to achieve higher throughput
– On uplink, multiple single-antenna stations can transmit simultaneously
• Space-Time Codes– Transmit diversity such as
Alamouti code reduces fading
2x2 Collaborative MIMO give 2x peak data rate by transmitting two data streams
43
4G Technology – SC-FDMA
• Single carrier multiple access– Used for LTE uplinks– Being considered for 802.16m uplink
• Similar structure and performance to OFDMA– Single carrier modulation with DFT-spread
orthogonal frequency multiplexing and FD equalization
• Lower Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR)– Improves cell-edge performance– Transmit efficiency conserves handset battery life
44
Key Features of WiMAX and LTE• OFDMA (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access)
• Users are allocated a slice in time and frequency
• Flexible, dynamic per user resource allocation
• Base station scheduler for uplink and downlink resource allocation– Resource allocation information conveyed on a frame‐by frame basis
• Support for TDD (time division duplex) and FDD (frequency division duplex)
DLUL
DL
ULFDDPaired channels
TDD: single frequency channel for uplink and downlink
45
3G/4G ComparisonPeak Data Rate (Mbps) Access time
(msec)Downlink Uplink
HSPA (today) 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 msec
HSPA (Release 7) MIMO 2x2 28 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 msec
HSPA + (MIMO, 64QAM Downlink)
42 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 msec
WiMAX Release 1.0 TDD (2:1 UL/DL ratio), 10 MHz channel
40 Mbps 10 Mbps 40 msec
LTE (Release 8), 5+5 MHz channel
43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 msec
46
WiMAX vs. LTE
• Commonalities– IP-based– OFDMA and MIMO– Similar data rates and channel widths
• Differences– Carriers are able to set requirements for LTE
through organizations like NGMN and LSTI, but cannot do this as easily at the IEEE-based 802.16
– LTE backhaul is, at least partially, designed to support legacy services while WiMAX assumes greenfield deployments
47
Commercial Issues
LTE
• Deployments likely slower than projected
But
• Eventual migration path for GSM/3GSM, i.e. for > 80% share
• Will be lowest cost & dominant in 2020
WiMAX
• 2-3 year lead, likely maintained for years
• Dedicated spectrum in many countries
But
• Likely < 15% share by 2020 & thus more costly
48
3G Partnership Project
Defines migration GSM to UMTS/ 3GSM to LTE
ReleaseSpecs
completeFirst
deployed Major new features defined
98 1998 Last purely 2G GSM release
99 1Q 2000 2003 W-CDMA air interface
4 2Q 2001 2004 Softswitching IP in core network
5 1Q 2002 2006 HSDPA & IP Multimedia System (IMS)
6 4Q 2004 2007 HSUPA, MBMS, GAN, PoC & WLAN integration
7 4Q 2007 future HSPA+, Better latency & QoS for VoIP
8 4Q 2008 future LTE, All-IP
W-CDMA – Wideband CDMA modulationHSxPA – High Speed (Download/Upload) Packet AccessMBMS – Multimedia Broadcast Multicast ServiceGAN – Generic Access NetworkPoC – Push-to-talk over CellularLTE – Long Term Evolution, a new air interface based on OFDM modulation
*
* Rush job?
49
Core Network Architectures
• Two widely deployed architectures today
• 3GPP evolved from GSM-MAP– Used by GSM & 3GSM operators (88% of subs globally)– “Mobile Application Part” defines signaling for mobility,
authentication, etc.
• 3GPP2 evolved from ANSI-41 MAP– ANSI-41 used with AMPS, TDMA & CDMA 2000– GAIT (GSM ANSI Interoperability Team) allowed
interoperation, i.e., roaming
• Evolving to common “all IP” vision based on 3GPP
50
Typical 2G Mobile Architecture
BTS Base Transceiver Station
BSC Base Station Controller
MSC Mobile Switching Center
VLR Visitor Location Register
HLR Home Location Register
BTS
BSCMSC/VLR
HLRBSC
GMSC
CO
BSC
BSCMSC/VLR
CO
PSTN
PLMN
CO
Tandem Tandem
SMS-SC
PSDN
51
Separation of Signaling & Transport
• Like PSTN, 2G mobile networks have one network plane for voice circuits and another network plane for signaling
• Some elements reside only in the signaling plane– HLR, VLR, SMS Center, …
Transport Plane (Voice)
Signaling Plane (SS7)MSCHLR
VLRMSC
SMS-SC
MSC
52
Signaling in Core Network
• Based on SS7– ISUP and specific Application Parts
• GSM MAP and ANSI-41 services– mobility, call-handling, O&M, authentication,
supplementary services, SMS, …
• Location registers for mobility management– HLR: home location register has permanent data– VLR: visitor location register – local copy for
roamers
53
PSTN-to-Mobile Call
(STP)
(SCP)
PSTNPLMN
(SSP)(SSP)BSSMS
PLMN(Home)(Visitor)
(STP)
HLR
GMSC
(SSP)
VMSC
VLR
IAM
6
2
Where is the subscriber?
5Routing Info
3Provide Roaming
4
SCP
1
IAM
514 581 ...
ISUP
MAP/ IS41 (over TCAP)
Signalingover SS7
54
GSM 2G Architecture
BSS Base Station System
BTS Base Transceiver Station
BSC Base Station Controller
MS Mobile Station
NSS Network Sub-System
MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller
VLR Visitor Location Register
HLR Home Location Register
AuC Authentication Server
GMSC Gateway MSC
GSM Global System for Mobile communication
SS7BTS
BSCMSC
VLR
HLRAuC
GMSC
BSS
PSTN
NSS
AE
CD
PSTNAbis
B
H
MS
55
2.5G Architectural Detail
SS7BTS
BSCMSC
VLR
HLRAuC
GMSC
BSS
PSTN
NSS
AE
CD
PSTNAbis
B
H
MS
BSS Base Station System
BTS Base Transceiver Station
BSC Base Station Controller
NSS Network Sub-System
MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller
VLR Visitor Location Register
HLR Home Location Register
AuC Authentication Server
GMSC Gateway MSC
SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node
GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
IP
2G+ MS (voice&data)
PSDNGi
SGSN
Gr
Gb
Gs
GGSN
Gc
Gn
2G MS (voice only)
56
3G rel99 Architecture (UMTS)
SS7
IP
BTS
BSCMSC
VLR
HLRAuC
GMSC
BSS
SGSN GGSN
PSTN
PSDN
CN
CD
GcGr
Gn Gi
Abis
Gs
B
H
BSS Base Station System
BTS Base Transceiver Station
BSC Base Station Controller
RNS Radio Network System
RNC Radio Network Controller
CN Core Network
MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller
VLR Visitor Location Register
HLR Home Location Register
AuC Authentication Server
GMSC Gateway MSC
SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node
GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node
AE PSTN
2G MS (voice only)
2G+ MS (voice & data)
UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System
Gb
3G UE (voice & data)
Node B
RNC
RNS
Iub
IuCS
ATM
IuPS
57
3G rel4 - Soft Switching
SS7
IP/ATM
BTS
BSCMSC Server
VLR
HLRAuC
GMSC server
BSS
SGSN GGSN
PSTN
PSDN
CN
CD
GcGr
Gn Gi
Gb
Abis
Gs
B
H
BSS Base Station System
BTS Base Transceiver Station
BSC Base Station Controller
RNS Radio Network System
RNC Radio Network Controller
CN Core Network
MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller
VLR Visitor Location Register
HLR Home Location Register
AuC Authentication Server
GMSC Gateway MSC
SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node
GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node
ANc
2G MS (voice only)
2G+ MS (voice & data)
Node B
RNC
RNS
Iub
IuCS
IuPS
3G UE (voice & data)
Mc
CS-MGW
CS-MGWNb
PSTNMc
ATM
58
3GPP rel5 ― IP Multimedia
Gb/IuPS
A/IuCS
SS7
IP/ATM
BTS
BSCMSC Server
VLR
HSSAuC
GMSC server
BSS
SGSN GGSN
PSTN
CN
CD
GcGr
Gn Gi
Abis
Gs
B
H
IM IP Multimedia sub-system
MRF Media Resource Function
CSCF Call State Control Function
MGCF Media Gateway Control Function (Mc=H248,Mg=SIP)
IM-MGW IP Multimedia-MGW
Nc
2G MS (voice only)
2G+ MS (voice & data)
Node B
RNC
RNS
Iub
3G UE (voice & data)
Mc
CS-MGW
CS-MGWNb
PSTNMc
IuCS
IuPS
ATM
IM
IPPSTN
Mc
MGCF
IM-MGW
MRF
CSCF
Mg
Gs
IP Network
59
3GPP2 Defines IS-41 Evolution
• 3rd Generation Partnership Project “Two”– Evolution of IS-41 to “all IP” more direct (skips ATM
stage), but not any faster– Goal of ultimate merger (3GPP + 3GPP2) remains
• 1xRTT – IP packets (like GPRS)
• 1xEVDO – Evolution data-optimized
• 1xEVDV – abandoned
• 3x – Triples radio data rates
• Universal Mobile Broadband (UMB) – abandoned
60
NextGen Networks (NGN) Converging
3GPP2 — CDMA2000 multi-media domain (MMD) based on 3GPP IMS R5 TISPAN — evolves NGN architecture for fixed networks based on 3GPP IMS ITU-T NGN Focus Group — venue to make TISPAN NGN a global spec ATIS NGN Focus Group — formally collaborating with ETSI as of April 2005 PacketCable Release 2.0 — aligning with portions of 3GPP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
3GPP Release 43GPP IMS R5
3GPP IMS R6
TISPAN R13GPP2 MMD
ITU-T NGN FGATIS NGN FGPacket Cable 2.0
3GPP IMS R7 Following 3GPP lead
61
3GPP R7 / TISPAN IMS
Other Networks
3GPP Service Layer
3GPP Control Layer
ETSI TISPAN Extension
Service Plane
Control Plane
Access/Transport Plane
External IP Networks
Internal IP Networks PSTN
OSA-SCS
IM-SSFCCCF
AppServer
HSS
SLF Offline
Online
S-CSCF
Charging Function
P-CSCF I-CSCF
BGCF
MGCFMRFC
RACSPDFNASS
IBCF
A-BGF MRFP T-MGF SGF I-BGF IWF
SCIM
Other Networks
3GPP Service Layer
3GPP Control Layer
ETSI TISPAN Extension
Service Plane
Control Plane
Access/Transport Plane
External IP Networks
Internal IP Networks PSTN
OSA-SCS
IM-SSFCCCF
AppServer
HSS
SLF Offline
Online
S-CSCF
Charging Function
P-CSCF I-CSCF
BGCF
MGCFMRFC
RACSPDFNASS
IBCF
A-BGF MRFP T-MGF SGF I-BGF IWF
SCIM
62
IMS / NGN Vision
• One core network for “any access”– Based on IP, using IETF standards, with extensions– Wireline and wireless transparency
• Access and bandwidth will be commodities; services are the differentiator– Per-session control supports per-application quality
of service (QoS) and per-application billing
• Voice is just application– “Easily” integrated with other applications…
63
IMS Story: Convergence
Source: Team Analysis, Lucent
Traditional Services
TV Caller ID Phone Tools
Push to Talk
WirelinePacket Cable
Wireless Wifi WiMax
OS
S/
BS
S
Access Delivery
Media Functions
Subscriber Data
ApplicationO
SS
/ B
SS
Access Delivery
Media Functions
Subscriber Data
Application
OS
S/
BS
SAccess
Delivery
Media Functions
Subscriber Data
Application
IMS Services
Subscriber Data
Media Functions
IP Multimedia SubsystemIP Multimedia Subsystem
OS
S/
BS
S
ApplicationApplication
Phone Tools
Push to Talk
WirelinePacket Cable
Wireless Wifi WiMax
Application
TV Caller ID
64
IMS / NGN Value Proposition
• Generate new revenue from new services– Per-session control allows IMS to guarantee QoS
for each IP session, and enables differential billing for applications & content
• Reduce capital spending– Converge all services on common infrastructure– Focus limited resources on core competencies
• To date, mobile operators have had no incentive to deploy IMS for voice services
65
LTE and IMS
• LTE is an all-IP network– Not compatible with legacy voice services– Assumes the use of IP Multimedia System (IMS)
• Initial LTE networks will be data only
• Initial LTE handsets will be multi-modal, supporting HSPA and earlier systems for voice telephony
• VOLGA Forum working on a fix– Voice over LTE via Generic Access
66
Long Term Parallels: IN & IMS
Intelligent Network
• Free operators from equipment provider lock-in
• Separate applications from basic call control
• Open protocols and APIs for applications
Intelligent Network Application Successes
• FreePhone, Mobile (HLR), Pre-paid, Voice mail, …
• 15 year summary: A few applications, very widely deployed
67
LTE’s System Architecture Evolution (SAE)
Diagram by Huawei
RAN (Radio access network)SGSN (Serving GPRS Support Node)PCRF (policy and charging function) HSS (Home Subscriber Server)MME (Mobility Management Entity)SAE (System Architecture Evolution)
68
Mobile Service Revenues
• > $800 billion in 2007, growing 6%-7% per year– > $1 trillion by 2012
• Voice services dominate: 81%
• SMS services: 9.5% ; All other non-voice services: 9.5%
Source: Portio Research
69Images courtesy of Jon Stern
70
Mobile Services Futures
• Affordable open mobile Internet access coming– Five competing 3.5G operators in US by 2010– Smart phone penetration soaring
• Operators’ control of handset software slipping– iPhone and Android application stores, initiatives for
Symbian, WinMobile, Adobe AIR, etc.
71
The Internet is the killer platform
• Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage
• Future business models an open question
• Slides from yesterday’s Mobile Broadband discussion, are available
72
Enormous technology change
but
commercial issues trump technology
and
legal-regulatory trumps all
73
Outrageous ideas
• 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz
• 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15%– * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution
• Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX
• Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access
• Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all– License exempt on secondary access basis
