optimal usage of water taia lubbock regional meeting jay yates extension program specialist iii risk...
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Optimal Usage of WaterTAIA Lubbock Regional Meeting
Jay YatesExtension Program Specialist IIIRisk ManagementLubbock, TX
• Declining capacity• Increased efficiency• Increasing energy costs• Varieties with higher potential yields
Texas Southern High Plains Irrigation Situation
• Looked at the following cotton alternatives:– Fully irrigate 120 acre pivots with 300 gpm each– Irrigate 1/2 pivots, treat the rest as dryland– Irrigate 2/3 pivots, treat the rest as dryland– Drill new wells to irrigate entire pivots on owned land with
600 GPM• Drilling 4 new wells for the 4 pivots on owned land at a cost of
$40,000 each• Water ½ pivots on rented ground
* None of the alternatives included DCP Program Direct Payments
FARM Assistance Analysis
2012-2021 2013-2022Baseline – Water whole pivots with 300 gpm per pivot 299.19 % 213.77%
Alternative 1 – Water half pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 345.47% 255.93%
Alternative 2 – Water two-thirds pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 327.73% 239.18%
Alternative 3 – Drill new wells to irrigate entire pivots with 600 gpm 507.44% 440.38%
Updated Results% Change in Real Net Worth
2012-2021 2013-2022Baseline – Water whole pivots with 300 gpm per pivot 187,730 132,680
Alternative 1 – Water half pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 216,480 157,930
Alternative 2 – Water two-thirds pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 205,580 147,890
Alternative 3 – Drill new wells to irrigate entire pivots with 600 gpm 301,380 256,810
Updated ResultsAverage Net Farm Profit
Updated ResultsAverage Probability of a Cash Shortfall
2012-2021 2013-2022Baseline – Water whole pivots with 300 gpm per pivot 10.6% 23.1%
Alternative 1 – Water half pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 8.2% 18.3%
Alternative 2 – Water two-thirds pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 9.5% 20.5%
Alternative 3 – Drill new wells to irrigate entire pivots with 600 gpm 8.4% 10.9%
Updated ResultsEnding Cash Reserves
2012-2021 2013-2022Baseline – Water whole pivots with 300 gpm per pivot 1,081,630 697,960
Alternative 1 – Water half pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 1,277,590 875,970
Alternative 2 – Water two-thirds pivots, plant the rest to dryland cotton 1,202,500 805,260
Alternative 3 – Drill new wells to irrigate entire pivots with 600 gpm 1,859,920 1,551,340
Projected Variability in Net Farm Income
“Whiskey is for drinkin’, water is for fightin’ over” Mark Twain
• TTU Lubbock Mesonet Site– 45.75” Cumulative Reference ET from 4/15 – 9/15– 2.36” Rainfall during the same period– 98 days of 95 degrees or more– 58 days of 100 degrees or more
• Official Lubbock record of 48 breaks old record from 1934 of 29
• 3 bale cotton in 2011 took from 21-35 ac/in with 4-5 gpm per acre capacity
• Well irrigated pivots and drip had significantly higher net returns
Observations From 2011
Petersburg, TexasDryland planted May 4 – Picture taken August 25, 2011
Shallowater, TexasPre-watered Only Planted May 4 – Picture taken August 25, 2011
North of Petersburg, Texas Yield .9 BPASub-Surface Drip, 1.5 GPM per acre – Picture taken August 25, 2011
Petersburg, Texas Yield 1.5 BPASub-Surface Drip, 2.5 GPM per acre – Picture taken August 25, 2011
Lubbock, Texas Yield 3.3 BPASub-Surface Drip, 4.1 GPM per acre – Picture taken August 25, 2011
Sandhill, Texas Yield 3.5 BPASub-Surface Drip, 4.5 GPM per acre – Picture taken August 25, 2011
South of Shallowater, Texas Yield 3.95 BPASub-Surface Drip, 6 GPM per acre – Picture taken August 25, 2011
• TTU Lubbock Mesonet Site– 41.13” Cumulative Reference ET from 4/15 – 9/15– 6.24” Rainfall during the same period– 69 days of 95 degrees or more– 25 days of 100 degrees or more
• Official Lubbock record prior to 2011 was 29 from 1934• Official Lubbock record of 24 tied for 5th most with 1924
• 3 bale cotton in 2012 took only slightly less irrigation than 2011
• Well irrigated pivots and drip had significantly higher net returns
Not Much Better in 2012
• TTU Lubbock/Reese Mesonet Site– 42.09” Cumulative Reference ET from 4/15 – 9/3
• Would expect another 2.5” over next 2 weeks based on forecasts, making 2013 as high of ET as 2011
– 7.82” Rainfall during the same period• Normal rainfall is 11.24” for this period• 33 of top 36 driest periods on record for Lubbock come between 9/15 and
4/15. (That’s why winter wheat is not as successful here)
– 48 days of 95 degrees or more– 13 days of 100 degrees or more
• Still warmer than average (~10 days/year), but closer to average temperature compared to the past 2 years.
Not as Hot and Dry in 2013But still above average
• Interviewed area farmers• Collected data from AgriLife Research &
Extension Projects
Comparative Profit Analysis 2011
• 31 Cotton Farm Sites– 17 Sub-Surface Drip (all on 80” centers)– 13 Center Pivots• 2 MESA• 1 LESA• 10 LEPA
– 1 Furrow– GPM/Acre ranging from 1.5 to 6.0
The Study Group
2011 Cotton Yields vs. Water Applied
Cotton Yield lbs/acre
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
2011 Returns Above Direct Costs at $0.90/lb vs. Water Applied at $9/in
Returns AboveDirect Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
> 4 gpm/ac
2011 Cotton Net Profit at $0.90/lb vs. Water Applied at $9/in
Returns AboveDirect Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
> 4 gpm/ac
2011 Returns Above Direct Costs at $0.52/lb vs. Water Applied at $9/in
Returns AboveDirect Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
2011 Cotton Net Profit at $0.52/lb vs. Water Applied at $9/inReturns Above
Direct Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
2011 Returns Above Direct Costs at $0.90/lb vs. Water Applied at $15/in
Returns AboveDirect Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
2011 Cotton Net Profit at $0.90/lb vs. Water Applied at $15/in
Returns AboveDirect Costs
Inches of Water Applied per Acre
GPM*
GPM/Acre Inches/Acre/Day Inches/Acre/Season (24/7)*
187.5 1.5 0.0795 12.25250 2 0.1061 16.33
312.5 2.5 0.1326 20.42375 3 0.1591 24.50
437.5 3.5 0.1856 28.58500 4 0.2121 32.67
562.5 4.5 0.2386 36.75625 5 0.2652 40.83
687.5 5.5 0.2917 44.92750 6 0.3182 49.00
What Does It Take To Apply 20-25 Inches of Irrigation?
* Assumes 125 acre pivot and irrigating season from April 15 to September 15
• In 2011 with virtually no sub-soil moisture or rainfall during the growing season, it took at least 4 gpm/acre to make a profitable cotton crop.
• Long term analysis shows that systems with the ability to deliver less than 3 gpm/acre would be more profitable cutting irrigated acreage back to that level.
• Irrigation profitability is more sensitive to lower cotton prices than higher energy prices.
• Expected price level for 2013 would indicate that profitable irrigated yields are still attainable.
Conclusions
1. Personal Preference2. Risk Avoidance3. Potential Profitability4. Long Term Sustainability
Factors Affecting Planting Decisions
• Irrigated Acres – 125• Total Cropland Acres – 160• Irrigation Capacity – 350 GPM• Number Days to Irrigate – 120• Acre-inches per Irrigated Acre - 18
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 1– Cotton – Irrigated (950 lb APH, 65%) – 125 ac.– Cotton – Dryland (250 lb APH, 65%) – 35 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 67%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $61,852– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 109%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 2– Corn – Irrigated (185 bu APH, 65%) – 62.5 ac.– Sorghum – Irrigated (75 bu APH, 65%) – 62.5 ac.– Sorghum – Dryland (30 bu APH, 65%) – 35 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 93%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $26,015– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 89%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 3– Sesame – Irrigated (675 lb APH, 65%) – 125 ac.– Sesame – Dryland (450 lb APH, 65%) – 35 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 62%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $79,040– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 80%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 4– Corn – Irrigated (185 bu APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Sunflowers – Dryland (556 lb APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 86%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $32,036– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 86%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 5– Corn – Irrigated (185 bu APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Cotton – Dryland (250 lb APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 86%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $26,910– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 85%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
• Scenario 6– Corn – Irrigated (185 bu APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Sesame – Dryland (450 lb APH, 65%) – 80 ac.– Percent Irrigation Capacity Used – 86%– Return Over Direct Expenses - $34,900– Insurance Coverage Ratio – 91%
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
Comparative Farm Scenarios 2013
55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
1
2
3
45
6
InsuranceCoverage Ratio
Irrigation Capacity Usage
Contact Information:Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center1102 East FM 1294Lubbock, TX 79403
(806) 746-6101
http://lubbock.tamu.edu http://agrilife.org/southplainsprofit http://agrilife.org/southplainscottonhttps://www.facebook.com/FARMAssistance
Jay YatesExtension Program Specialist IIIRisk Management
FARM Assistance Analyst
South Plains Cotton Update every Thursday at 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. during West Texas Ag Life on