OPPORTUNITIES in the GLOBAL seafood market focused on

CONSUMPTIONBy

Roy PalmerAssociation of InternationalSeafood Professionals

I want YOU to smell SUCCESS

?? ??

As one wall goes up a new bridge is built!

Globally – FAO – UN - etc

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 (Fish Price Index)

MEXICO

WASTEPLASTIC/POLYSTYRENE

Do NOT Forget Your Local Market

http://www.iccaworld.org/npps/story.cfm?nppage=6227

World Production of Shrimp

Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million MT

Capture Fisheries Aquaculture

Aquaculture accounted for 54%

of world shrimp supplies in 2014.

28%

51%

52%

26%

54%

53%

49%

Sources: FAO (2016); GOAL (2014, 2016).

Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included.

China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

World Production of Shrimp by Species

Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Million MT Others/NS

P. merguiensis

P. chinensis

Pandalus borealis

Trachypenaeus

curvirostris

Acetes japonicus

P. monodon

P. vannamei

28%

40%42%

39%

4%

Sources: FAO (2016); GOAL (2014, 2016).

Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

P. vannamei is the most important species in the world,

with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.

Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei.

European Shrimp Imports from Extra-EU Countries

Down 9% between 2011-13, Up 7% between 2013-16

Source: Eurostat (2016).

* Estimate

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016*

Tho

usa

nd

MT

Others

Morocco

China

Bangladesh

Canada

Greenland

Vietnam

Argentina

India

Ecuador

Japanese Shrimp Imports

Down 25% between 2011-15, Up 4% in 2016

Source: Japan Customs (2016).

* Estimate

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016*

Tho

usa

nd

MT

Others

Myanmar

Canada

Russia

Argentina

China

India

Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

Declining imports were caused primarily by lower shipments from Thailand, which went down from

80 thousand tons in 2012 to 36 thousand tones in 2015, with no substantial increase in 2016.

10

Marine Shrimp Aquaculture in China

by Region – 2015 and 2006

2015 Total = 1,161,340 MT. 2006 Total = 732,315 MT. Source: Chinese Fisheries Yearbook

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Guangdong Guangxi Shandong Hainan Fujian Other

Thousand MT

Share: 36.4%

20.1%

9.3% 9.1% 9.1%

15.9%

11

Shrimp Exports from China

Source: FAO (2013); World Integrated Trade Solution Database (2005-2015):http://wits.worldbank.org

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Shrimp Exports (Product Weight)

Shrimp Exports (Product Weight)

2011-2015 down 37%

12

China – Estimated Domestic Shrimp Consumption

(Round Weight)

Source: Chinese Fisheries Yearbook; FAO (2013); World Integrated Trade Solution Database (2005-2015):http://wits.worldbank.org

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Thousand MT

Domestic Consumption

Note: Estimated Consumption = Production + Import - Export

+60% 2010-15+123% 2005-15

Conclusions

2014 to 2015 -5%2015 to 2016 +2%

Expected global growth rate 2015-18 about +4% per year(Less bullish about than recovery last year)

Disease - Biggest Constraint Esp. AsiaFollowed by cost and availability of quality seed stock

2017 - ExpectationsHigher feed prices;

Stronger shrimp markets (esp. in Asia)Leaning bullish on global economic conditions

(Asia less bullish & Americas more bullish than last year)

Seed & Feed

Tilapia Countries production sorted by

2015 figures

Average of estimates from several sources.

1,709,852

1,046,667

665,300

337,500

303,520

292,106

288,760

144,688

87,143

70,714

65,000

62,800

62,500

58,950

0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

China

Indonesia

Egypt

Thailand

Bangladesh

Brazil

Philippines

Vietnam

Mexico

Taiwan

Uganda

Colombia

India

Malaysia

2018

2017

2016

2015

Tilapia production estimates for China

1,665

1,710

1,724

1,776

1,712

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Average

Sergio Zimmermann

Anonymous3

CAPPMA

Kevin Fitzsimmons

Anonymous2

Anonymous1

Liu Liping

X 1000 MT

Global Tilapia Aquaculture ProductionUS import prices frozen fillet

379

39

8

48

5

54

8

59

3

70

4

811

89

8

89

7

1037

1190

13

02

14

17

1,5

87

1,7

95

1,9

92

2,2

65

2,5

54

2,8

26

3,1

09

3,5

41

3,9

97

4,5

64

4,8

86

5,3

08

5,3

39

5,5

50

5,7

98

5,9

77

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1990

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

1999

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

2008

20

09

20

10

2011

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

2017

20

18

REAL PRICE (USD/KG)

1000 METRIC TONNES

Sources: FAO: 1990-2014. Miscellaneous sources: 2015-2018. NMFS: Prices US import frozen fillet. Note: Prices are annual averages, except for 2015(January-July average)

Total production of Catfish species

US real import price catfish frozen fillet

88

6,9

00

1,0

59

,90

2

1,3

02

,52

1

1,5

78

,01

0

2,0

77

,96

9

2,6

76

,22

0

2,8

34

,30

5

3,0

56

,40

0

3,1

54

,58

9

3,6

58

,71

3

3,8

83

,29

6

4,1

55

,10

3

4,2

28

,00

0

4,3

70

,00

0

46

76

00

0

48

85

00

0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

US

D p

er

kg

Pro

du

ctio

n in

me

tric

to

nn

es Producti

on

USimportpricecatfish

Sources: FAO and miscellaneous. Prices: NMFS.

Bluefin TunaTotal Production and US real import

price fresh2

38

00 30

70

0

29

70

0

34

30

0

43

80

0

34

50

0

33

50

0

29

10

0

29

00

0

26

50

0

30

30

0

31

05

0

42

56

3

45

18

1

49

90

0

53

70

0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Rea

l p

ric

e (

US

D/k

g)

Metr

ic t

on

ne

s

Production US import price fresh

Sources: Production - Apostolos Tzoumas; import price- NMFS. Note: Prices are annual averages, except price in2015 is January-August average.

BarramundiTotal production by major producing countries

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000199

1199

2199

3199

4199

5199

6199

7199

8199

9200

0200

1200

2200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

9201

0201

1201

2201

3201

4201

5201

6201

7201

8

Metr

ic T

on

nes

Australia Indonesia

Thailand Malaysia

Taiwan

Source: FAO

20

Growth of Fish SpeciesPercentage growth, 2006-2016

-100 0 100 200 300

Atlantic cod

Large Rainbow trout

Atlantic halibut

Bluefin tuna

Sea bass & bream, Medit.

Coho salmon

Turbot, excl. China

Small trout

Carp, selected countries

Atlantic salmon

Cobia, selected countries

Milkfish, selected countries

Pangasius, Vietnam

Tilapia

Grouper, selected countries

Barramundi, selected countries

Catfishes, selected countries

Percent

Atlantic cod

Other Major Aquaculture Species• COBIA

• SEA BREAM

• SEABASS

• YELLOW TAIL KINGFISH

• OYSTERS

• MUSSELS

• CLAMS

• SEAWEED

UK Report

• Opportunities:Quick Service Restaurants are the most frequently visited outlets (consumers buy seafood on 5% of visits)

• Fish and Chip Shops seafood sales are declining

• Full Service Restaurants' servings are showing strong and stable growth

• Shellfish if marketed towards younger consumers could drive future growth.

• Tactics and tools:Constantly innovate to maintain consumer interest and adapt to meet consumers' needs and expectation. Listen

• Target young consumers to eat more seafood and especially shellfish.

• Introduce hand-held seafood meals for eating whilst on the move.

• Expand small dish, sharing ranges for casual meal occasions.

UK – Unloved & Unwanted

17% increase 2012-2030

61 million population but adult % rising

65 YO set to rise from 21%in 2012 to 27 % in 2030

weekly consumption of fish in the UK will rise from 8,000 mt pa 2012, to around 9,200 mt by 2030

Foodservice Australia 28-30 May

Trade Only Exhibition Summit with Mexico Session

Charity NightMexican FlavourSeafood ShowcaseChef’s College

ALDI Christmas Food Catalogue

A$1 = 15 Mex Pesos

Australia’s largest seafood sales

Fresh Sardine fillets – Melb Mkt

Retail price 420 per kg Mex PesosA$28 per kg 23 Nov 2016

New Restaurant Concept?

FishPacTM live air transport system Patented Regulator

29

FishPacTM live air transport system bins / totes

Bin size StackPac – 1,440mm length x 1,160mm width x 1,017mm height, weight when empty is 140kg, weight when full is 990kg.

The bins are food safe and approved by operating airlines –IE - Qantas, Cathay Pacific, Singapore, Air Canada, Jetstar, Etihad, Cargojet Canada and Iceland Air.

Note – every bin is subject to tilt tests at 45o on all four sides in a full operational mode.

There has been no reported leakage in an aircraft. FishPac StackPac expanded schematic

30

FishPacTM live air transport system StackPac

Payload of 400kg +

Weight up to 1250kg

Cylinder placed in dedicated holder at the bottom of bin

Maximum top opening for packing and filling

Purpose designed by FishPac for the live air transport industry

Unique double sealing system provides a vacuum like seal around lid

Total incorporated Seamist system in the lid

Double gore vents in lid

31

Conclusions• Look EAST but keep your eyes open

• Focus on QUALITY

• Concentrate on FOOD SAFETY

• CONTINUAL IMPROVEMENT – in everything

• COLLABORATE & BENCHMARK

• TRAIN YOUR STAFF – YOUR BEST ASSET

• Do not WASTE your OPPORTUNITIES (booths)

• Endeavour to promote YOUR POINT OF DIFFERENCE

• Do your HOMEWORK

Do Not Be Discouraged……

Roy.D.Palmer@seafoodprofessionals.org

Muchas GraciasMexico

Join Free athttps://www.seafoodprofessionals.org/membership