Oman Case Innovative Statistical

Frameworks To Meet Global Challenges

Sabir Al-Harbi New York 18 February 2011

Source: IMF

Global Trends: Global Financial CrisisGlobal GDP Growth

(Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)

Global Trends: FOOD CRISIS

KEY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN OMAN

Need for Processing & Producing High Frequency & Timely Indicators for Monitoring the Economy

KEY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC STATISTICS IN OMAN

I. Development of Price Statistics Weekly Food Inflation (Short Term) Weekly CPI (Long Term)

II. Early Warning Indicators Quarterly Flash GDP Monthly Flash GDP Composite Indicators

I- DEVELOPMENT OF PRICE STATISTICSWEEKLY FOOD INFLATION GAUGE (SHORT TERM)

Some 70 key food items Leading indicator for CPI and PPI changes Quick outlook into the very short term Weekly compilation process

Saturday-Monday: Field Collection & Data Processing

Tuesday: Review Wednesday: Publish

Data recycled to complement ordinary CPI, PPI, XMPI compilations

I- DEVELOPMENT OF PRICE STATISTICS

Weekly CPI (Long Term)

Need for a Full Weekly CPI with 1 Day Timeliness

Revision of the Data Collection Methodology Burden versus Investment (Needs Greater

than Cost) Feasibility Study (2012)

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS

A. FLASH QUARTERLY GDP (NOW-CASTING)

The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities

Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref.

PeriodActivity GDP share Primary data source / estimation method

Oil and Gas 41% Actual data on quantity produced and the corresponded prices from Ministry of Oil and Gas

Refining and petrochemicals

7% Monthly Financial statement from the producers

Manufacturing 4% Turnover estimates, export values/quantities Construction 7% Production survey, labor statistics, construction

material index Services 41% Production Survey

Etc. Ministry of Finance, Sectoral Ministries

QUARTERLY FLASH GDP

ACTUAL VS. FLASH GDP

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP

o Calculated using Production Approacho One Month Timelinesso Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such

as: Administrative Data Price Statistics Monthly Survey Results Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP

Better timeliness Less accuracy, but acceptable Availability of strong monthly set of

information Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP Strengthen the high frequency indicators

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC

INDICATORS

Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic activity for future immediate future

Extracting signals and producing estimates for a better understanding of cyclical movements

This work is currently under construction Weighting system will be produced derived

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC

INDICATORS20% 30%6.9%  Money supply, M2  10% 6.9% Nominal Interest rate    5% 6.9% CPI inflation  5% 6.9% MSI stock market index  5%

30% Foreign Direct Investment  5%

 15% 12.50%

 15% 6.25% 7.50%  6.25% 2.5% 2.5%

 2.5%

General Financial sectorBusiness confidence indexNumber of workersTotal retail salesGovernment revenue

Hydrocarbon sector

External sectorOil price, Oman crude monthly average price 

Real Estate

Total exportsTotal imports

Hydrocarbon sector Production  

Building permits, non-gov. Hotel (4-5 star) revenueConstruction Sector Business Confidence Index

CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED

Rallying for resources To keep an innovative team Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency

indicators – historic emphasis annual data Weekly CPI management Composite Leading Indicator

Lack of sufficient indicators Methodological improvements in existing data

TO SUMMARIZE

Priorities in Countries May Differ Improvements of Current Periodicity &

Timeliness of Data Disseminations is the Key to Confront Global Challenges in Time

Thank you