ohla | str forecasting 2022

Source: 2021 STR, LLC / STR Global, Ltd. trading as "STR". © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. The information in the presentation should not be construed as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice.

OHLA | STR Forecasting 2022Lodging Industry Update

Rico Louw | Central Region Sales Manager

Luke Veneskey| Sales Associate for OK & AR

Source: STR. 2021 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc.

Performance Reports

Occ, ADR, RevPAR

Supply/Demand

Revenue

P&L

Supply Reports

Existing supply

Future supply

Pipeline

Characteristics

Research Studies

Event Impact

Regional Performance Reviews

Whitepapers

Ad Hoc studies

Forecast Reports

Main KPIs

5 years/6 quarters/18 months

Macro economic input

Micro economic input

Analysis

Compression

Day of Week

Event Impact

Bespoke client reporting

What we doCollecting data from +70,000 hotels, globally

2


68 5062

83

75

93

9384 42

78

Just when we thought we had it bad…RevPAR indexed to 2019, local currency, September 2021

Northern Africa

Europe

Australia & Oceania

Central America

South America excl. Venezuela

Asia (excl. Mainland China)

Middle East

United States

Southern Africa

Mainland China

RevPAR Index

75

North America excl. US


4%

19%

23%

36%

37%

41%

41%

47%

47%

47%

50%

50%

56%

66%

69%

Other

Financial reasons due to COVID-19

Travel insurance concerns

Concerned about cleanliness of accommodation

Additional costs due to required testing

Concerned about traveling (e.g. flying)

Lack of confidence in destination

Refund challenges due to cancellation

Last minute cancellations

Experience will be negatively impacted

Unvaccinated fellow travelers

Concerned about my own health

Fellow travelers not following the rules

Potential hassle of quarantine

Government legislation / restrictions

Government legislation (still) the greatest barrier to travelSTR Traveller Survey, July 2021

Comfort FinancialGovernment

Q: Please tell us why COVID-19 has influenced your decision not to book or undertake travel yet? Base: Not Traveled or Booked (568)


Actual 2019 Index

Room Supply (TRI) 103

Room Demand 86

Occupancy (standard) 57.6% 85

ADR $122 92

RevPAR (standard) $70 79

Room Revenue 79

YTD metrics getting closer to “normal” levelsTotal US, YTD September 2021


-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

1990 2000 2010 2020

Supply R12 % Change Demand R12 % Change

R12 demand change positive after 18 months in the redTotal U.S., 12 MMA supply (standard) and demand % change, Jan 1990 – Sep 2021


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

1990 2000 2010 2020

Occupancy R12 % Change ADR R12 % Change

R12 ADR % change again in the blackTotal U.S., 12 MMA Occupancy (standard) and ADR % change, Jan 1990 – Sep 2021


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Sep 2021215.8

September RevPAR around 2015 levelsTotal U.S., RevPAR indexed to same month in 1990, Jan 1990 – Sep 2021


5660

6975 77 75 73 72 73 73

7780

8489

96

106 104 101

Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21

Rate recovery decelerates as groups slowly return Total U.S., ADR indexed to 2019, Apr 2020 – Sep 2021

9

Source: STR. 2021 © CoStar Realty Information, Inc. 10

Class Review


Rates remain high across the boardTotal U.S., Occupancy (TRI) and ADR indexed to 2019, Sep 2021

79.1 74.286.4 94.0 100.3 101.2

114.397.5 98.6 105.7 110.3 109.2

Luxury Class Upper UpscaleClass

Upscale Class Upper MidscaleClass

Midscale Class Economy Class

Occ Index ADR Index


74

57

72

85

96 99

78

60

73

86

96 99

Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class

RevPAR (TRI) Index RevPAR (Standard) Index

Luxury recovery outpaces Upscale thanks to high ADRTotal U.S., RevPAR indexed to 2019, YTD Sep 2021


Three classes with YTD ADR better than 2019Total U.S., ADR by class, YTD Sep 2019, 2020, 2021

$303

$189

$145$117

$97$77

$291

$166

$122$101

$86$67

$336

$174

$131$114

$99$77

Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Midscale Class Economy Class

2019 2020 2021


Segmentation

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0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000Ja

n-1

9

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Ap

r-2

1

May

-21

Jun

-21

Jul-

21

Au

g-2

1

Sep

-21

Group demand lifts off!Total U.S., Group demand, Jan 2019 – Sep 2021

15


Group rates soften from August but still 96% of the way backTotal U.S., segmentation ADR indexed to 2019, Oct 2020 – Sep 2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21

Transient ADR Index Group ADR Index


Groups slowly but surely improving; transient needs business demandTotal U.S., segmentation RevPAR (standard) indexed to 2019, Oct 2020 – Sep 2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21

Transient RevPAR Index Group RevPAR Index


Markets

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Top 25: Best and Worst Top 25 markets, YTD Sep 2021, by RevPAR % Change

Market OCC (standard) RevPAR % Change Influenced ByNorfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 63.6% 67.8% Military

Nashville, TN 57.4% 64.1% Bachelorettes

Chicago, IL 48.8% 59.6%

Saint Louis, MO 52.1% 57.0%

Denver, CO 59.3% 56.8%

Oklahoma City, OK 54.7% 48.6%

Tulsa, OK 55.4% 47.9%

Phoenix, AZ 61.2% 21.7%

Washington, DC 47.0% 18.9% Lockdown

Oahu Island, HI 54.3% 16.2% Travel restrictions

New Orleans, LA 49.3% 10.9% Festival season cancelled

San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 45.7% -21.2% Lockdown


2

2

33

3

4

3

4

2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Other Markets Top 25 Markets Difference

Occupancy gap shrinks as other market occ fallsTotal U.S., Occupancy (standard), Jan – Sep 2021

20


-8 -9 -9-11

-12-11 -10 -9

-20

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Other Markets Top 25 Markets Difference

T25 rates improve; other market ADR falls almost $10 from AugTotal U.S., ADR, Jan – Sep 2021

21


Pipeline

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0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ro

om

s in

th

ou

san

ds

Low:May 2011

49.9K

Current:Sep 2021

172.2K

Previous peak:Dec 2007

211.7K

Peak:Apr 2020220.2K

U.S. hotel rooms under construction down from 2020 peakU.S., In construction rooms in thousands, Jan 2006 – Sep 2021


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Opened Projected to open

US pipeline higher than average post-COVIDTotal U.S., Rooms opened by year, 2015-2021

24Projected to open = I/C rooms with projected opening dates in 2021


11.6

22.0

47.1 44.6

14.1

5.8

27.1

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

Limited-service construction (still) dominates…U.S. in construction rooms in thousands, by scale, September 2021

54%


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Planning Final Planning In Construction

Other Markets Top 25 Markets

Top 25 markets account for 46% of all I/C roomsTotal U.S., active pipeline by market type and % of I/C rooms by market type, Sep 2021

26

54%

46%

Other Markets Top 25 Markets


76%

24%IHG, Choice, Hilton, Hyatt,Marriott, Wyndham

All Other (incl. unbranded)

“Big 6” brands (and their distribution networks) dominate pipelineU.S., active pipeline by brand, Q3 2021


Forecast

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34.0%

98.0%

43.0%

106.0%

ADR Demand

Forecast Actual

Demand beat the forecastQ2 2021, ADR and Demand – Forecast vs. Actual


Metric2020

Actual2021

Forecast2022

Forecast

Occupancy * 41.6% 54.7% 61.8%

ADR $103.008 $115.50 $122.39

RevPAR * $42.87 $63.16 $75.63

RevPAR* Indexed to 2019 -50.1% -26.9% -12.4%

Comparable RevPAR* Year 1995 2012 2014

*Reflects Total-Room-Inventory (TRI) methodology, which assumes no temporary hotel closures.

U.S. ForecastKey Performance Indicators2020 – 2021F – 2022F


US Forecast: A multi-year recovery

100.0

49.9

73.5

88.0

98.1104.0

2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Demand Occ (TRI*) ADR RevPAR (TRI*)

*Reflects Total-Room-Inventory (TRI) methodology, which assumes no temporary hotel closures.

Indexed to end of 2019, 2019 – 2024F


The Bottom Line

The end of summer slow down brought weaker profitability

F&B revenues still weak with lack of groups, although venue revenues keeping pace with rooms department

Profit margins remain at normal levels despite slower demand

Labor costs rising despite weakened demand and lower levels of employment


OHLA | STR Forecasting 2022Lodging Industry Update




Oklahoma Market


Right at 2019 Levels, Room to close gapsOklahoma State, Running 7 days, Occ % and ADR


Sporting Event Spikes, again room to close gapsOklahoma City, Running 7 days, Occ % and ADR

OK vs KS

OK vs MO

Women’s WS

OK vs NE & WV

Equine


Unknown Spikes, well done on gab closing!Tulsa, Running 7 days, Occ % and ADR


6% Occupancy currently separates weekday and weekend performance

Oklahoma State, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021


High of 30% Occupancy gap during Football Season

Oklahoma City, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021


High of 30% Occupancy gap during weekend spikes

Tulsa, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021


Oklahoma State, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021

Weekend ADR up $5 vs Weekday, trending above 2019


Oklahoma City, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021

Driving the State as a whole, more event spikes


Tulsa, Monthly ADR by DOW, Feb 2020 till Oct 2021

Following along, large weekend dip in August


Multiple market weekly average occupancy – Competitor Markets

Oklahoma City and Tulsa are in the mix with their competitors


Multiple market weekly average occupancy – Oklahoma City & Tulsa Highlighted

Spikes in both cities see 65% occupancy in 2021


Multiple market weekly average ADR - Competitor Markets

Oklahoma City and Tulsa are at lower end to their competitors


Multiple market weekly average ADR – Oklahoma City & Tulsa Highlighted

Both cities hold steady at $80 ADR in 2021


Multiple market weekly average RevPAR - Competitor Markets

Oklahoma City and Tulsa show room for improvement


Multiple market weekly average RevPAR – Oklahoma City & Tulsa Highlighted

Both cities stay above $40 RevPAR in 2021


Case Study: San Antonio – Major spikes from events

Multiple market weekly average RevPAR – Oklahoma City & Tulsa Highlighted

March Madness Finals

Fiesta Festival


Summer is the peak, Dec & Jan are the valley – forecast is similarTulsa Submarket Occupancy, Historical & Forecasted


Similar to Tulsa – South/Airport leading wayOklahoma City Submarket Occupancy, Historical & Forecasted


CBD above others show good signs – group coming back to life!Tulsa Submarket ADR, Historical & Forecasted


Norman/Moore ending 2021 on a high – others holding steadyOklahoma City Submarket ADR, Historical & Forecasted


Close to 2019 levels in 2022, Luxury longer road to recoveryTulsa, collapsed class Occupancy, running 12 months


Full-Service leading the way into 2022 – OK’s bread and butterOklahoma City, collapsed class Occupancy, running 12 months


Group roars back surpassing pre-pandemic performanceTulsa rooms demand, transient & group segments, March 2020 till October, 2021


Transient demand surpassing pre-pandemic performanceOklahoma City rooms demand, transient & group segments, March 2020 till October, 2021


After March 2020: 502 Rooms Delivered Oklahoma State Rooms Delivered by Class, last 6 years


76 Projects, All Phases: 7,322 Rooms in next 7 Years Future Projects, Oklahoma Markets

In Construction Phase Projects:Oklahoma City - 10Tulsa - 2Other Markets - 2

In Construction Phase Rooms:Oklahoma City – 1,074Tulsa - 144Other Markets – 153


After March 2020: 960 Rooms DeliveredOklahoma City Rooms Delivered by Class, last 6 years


After March 2020: 103 Rooms DeliveredTulsa Rooms Delivered by Class, last 6 years


Giving the rest of Oklahoma some love – $ not sufficient Oklahoma Markets not Tulsa and Oklahoma City, total RevPAR


What is STR up to?

Monthly P&L Program


What is STR up to?

Forward looking data through rooms booked

Successful revenue-management strategies hinge on the ability to forecast demand. Competitive insights on the buildup and distribution of your Occupancy on the Books compared with your competition can help you identify a wide range of opportunities to adjust your strategy and drive greater market share.

Forward STAR


OHLA | STR Forecasting 2022

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