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OVERVIEW: Industry: Industrial Explosives: Industrial explosives have many applications in a process known as controlled blasting. These have significant applications in construction, quarrying and mining industries. Various types of explosives and their accessories are manufactured in this industry; these may include detonators, safety fuse, detonating fuse, nitro compound including boosters and PETN, gun powder, ANFO (Ammonium nitrate Fuel Oil) based explosives, cartridge explosives, bulk explosives and other nitrate mixtures. For such industrial explosives, ammonium nitrate (AN) serves as the major raw material. The use of ammonium nitrate has grown over the years, due to its properties associated to safety advantage which makes its feasible for handling, storing and shipping when needed. ANFO (94% ammonium nitrate and 6% fuel oil) is widely used in is widely used as an explosive in mining, quarrying, tunnel construction and other civil construction activities. The industry for industrial explosives is a highly concentrated. One of the major entry barriers and pre-requisites for any manufacturer to enter in this industry is the manufacturers require an explosives license to sell its products. Such licenses are granted to only those applicants who have appropriate security measures to prevent misuse of such potential hazardous material. As per persistencemarketresearch, Asia Pacific has been dominating the global industrial explosives market in terms of production in industrial explosives industry; Europe stood second followed by North America, particularly United States and Canada. Significant growth can be witnessed due to growth in the end user industries such as mining and construction. Emerging nations like Brazil, China and India are perceived as huge opportunities. In the past, India was completely dependent on imports, but things are changing for good in India. Growth in the industrial explosives market is largely co-related to GDP growth of the country. Some of the key triggers that will drive the demand will include rising construction activities as well significant growth of the mining industry. The largest market share in overall industrial explosives is enjoyed by mining industry which is indirectly propelled by increasing demand for coal, cement and electricity in developing nations like India; where coal mining occupies more than 40%, followed by metal mining at nearly 33%. In India, Coal India is the largest user of bulk explosives. The basic requirement or idea for such explosives is to remove the top soil below which coal is found. It is estimated Coal India spends around Rs1,5000mn on annual basis to purchase explosives. As per some reports and newspaper articles, the coal production is targeted to touch 1 billion tonnes by 2020 from the current 450 million tonnes in Feb 2016; thus Coal India's requirement for explosives is poised to rise significantly.

Make in India: India is a multibillion defence market. With a population nearly 1.25bn, India is blessed with the third largest Army, fourth largest Air Force and the seventh largest Navy in the world. India’s demand for defence related products and aeronautics has been increasing constantly. As far as military expenditure is concerned, India is amongst the top 10 countries in the world. India allocates nearly 1.6-1.8% of its GDP towards defence spending. According to a report by SIPRI in 2016, India accounts for 14% of the world’s defence imports. Historically, India has been taking technology through licence agreements from Russia and some other western countries. Apart from this, technology is also indigenously developed by the DRDO. According to government statistics, close to 60% of India's defence requirements are met through imports. The target ahead for India is to achieve self-reliance and reduce dependency on foreign countries in defence. This is good for both strategic as well as economic growth of India. Now, the need of the hour for India is to develop a new strategy to promote domestic manufacturing via indigenization and invite funding for R&D at the same time. This came into existence through major changes in Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP). In order to reduce dependency on imports GOI has become more practical in promoting Make in India. One of the major pillars of this project is the Indian defense system, where changes will be seen due to strong focus on indigenisation by bringing the Indian private sector in to play.

Oct 19, 2016 PICK OF THE MONTH VOL-2, NO-14

Premier Explosives Limited. BUY

CMP: Rs. 350 TARGET PRICE: Rs. 450 TIME : 12 months

SNAPSHOT

52 week H / L Mcap (INR mn)

519 / 290 3101

Face value: 10

BSE Code NSE CODE

526247 PREMEXPLN

Annual Performance

(Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

Sales (Net) 1454.0 1494.9 1849.9 2215.1

EBITDA 162.6 125.4 176.2 222.1

EBITDA (%) 11.2 8.4 9.5 10.0

Other Income 14.1 7.4 4.6 4.7

Interest 23.6 23.6 37.4 40.1

Depreciation 23.5 33.0 33.2 34.6

PBT 129.6 76.2 110.1 152.1

PAT 92.1 53.2 56.8 101.9

Equity 83.6 88.6 88.6 88.6

EPS (INR) 11.0 6.0 6.4 11.5

Ratio Analysis

Parameters (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.5 26.0 18.5 15.0

EV/Net Sales (x) 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.5

M Cap/Sales (x) 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.4

M Cap/EBITDA (x) 19.1 24.7 17.6 14.0

Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5

ROCE (%) 14.1 8.3 11.7 13.1

Price/Book Value (x) 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.3

P/E (x) 31.8 58.3 54.5 30.4

Share Holding Pattern as on 30th June 2016

Parameters No of Shares %

Promoters 4,207,636 47.5

Institutions 541,141 6.11

Public 4,109,798 46.4

TOTAL 8,858,575 100

Quarterly Performance

Parameters (Rs mn) Sept-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 June-16

Sales (Net) 404.4 481.7 587.2 473.0

EBITDA 28.4 48.4 69.4 42.4

EBITDA ( %) 7.0 10.1 11.8 9.0

Other Income 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.3

Interest 7.5 11.7 10.0 9.5

Depreciation 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.6

PAT 18.9 18.5 34.0 17.6

Equity ( Rs mn) 88.6 88.6 88.6 88.6

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Note: All the data is calculated as per closing on 18h Oct 2016. Please Turn Over

Source: Annual Report

OVERVIEW: Industry: (contd.) Make in India:(contd.) Indian defence market is becoming attractive for both domestic and foreign players and is rightly placed with immense opportunities. Some of the recent policy measures to promote defence industry in India include, allowance of up to 100% FDI in defence (earlier 49% and 26% via au-tomatic route), simplifying the procedure for grant of industrial licenses, formulation of Defence Exports Strategy and its availability in the public domain, providing equal opportunities for the private and public sector, extending allowance for Exchange Rate Variation (ERV) to the private sector and some proposals and programs such as Buy (Indian-IDDM), Buy (Indian), Buy & Make (Indian), Make I and Make II. Keeping the domestic players in mind, there are a total of 23 Make in India projects identified by the Ministry of Defence with a total value which is less than 1 percent of the entire Defence Budget. India’s Defense Minister Mr. Manohar Parrikar has set ambitious goals and wants annual military exports to touch USD2bn in a couple of years. As per IESA and Nasscom, in the next 10-12 years, the opportunity for Aerospace and Defence (A&D) electronics in India is estimated to be somewhere around USD70-72bn. As per the Defence Minister of India, in the next 7-8 years, India would be investing more than USD130bn in modernization of armed forces. Some reports also indicate, by year 2028, defence offset obligations of roughly around USD14bn will be discharged by the foreign OEMs. This segment has a potential to add nearly one million jobs, directly or indirectly as per CII reports. Looking at the opportunities that can be un-locked, this industry can be a big foreign exchange earner for the country. With FDI allowed via automatic route, there can be a possibility of foreign companies opening up local vendor base in India.




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Source: https://www.sipri.org/research/armament-and-disarmament/arms-transfers-and-military-spending/international-arms-transfers

Note: RE– Revised Estimate, BE– Budget Estimate; P– Projection Source: Indian Defence Industry: An Agenda for Making in India by Laxman Kumar Behera

OVERVIEW: Industry: (contd.) DPP2016: Needless to say manufacturing for defence sector is a long term process and it definitely needs a long-term strategy. Several major changes were introduced by the Defence Minister to DDP 2013 as per recommendations of the Dhirendra Singh Committee. As per the requirement of Indian Defence System, emphasis is now laid on reduction in the imports of weapons system & defence equipment, giving a boost to the small and medium scale enterprises and developing indigenous designs or Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured (IDDM) platforms. As per the Defence minister, the formulation of new DPP2016 provides greater transparency and the clearances are much faster. Its implementation will lead to domestic manufacturing, investments in indigenous R&D and help in connecting Indian talent for military modernisation. The new policy lays more stress on “Make” rather than “Buy and Make” for future defence acquisitions. DPP 2016 divides the existing Make category of projects into Make I (mostly funded by government) and Make II (governed by industry). Projects which are under Make I sub category will involve government funding of 90% which will be released in a phased manner based on the progress of the scheme and as per terms agreed between MoD and the vendor. Make II projects would be essentially funded by the industry. Projects under Make II category will involve development of prototype of equipments, system, platform or their upgrades with a clear focus on substitution of import. Prototype development purposes will not receive any government funding.

OVERVIEW: Company: Established in 1980, Premier Explosives Limited (PEL) has evolved from a regular explosives manufacturer to manufacturing solid propellants for missiles in India. PEL is the first in India to have successfully set up an indigenous technology required for manufacturing explosives and detonating fuels. The company is the first in the world to have produced safer and greener NHN (Nickel Hydrazine Nitrate which are used as Primary Explosives) detonators on a commercial scale. PEL is the first Indian private entity which has been successful in manufacturing and supplying solid propellants for India’s missiles programme. The strategic business units can easily be divided into those related to (a) commercial explosives, (b) defence products, (c) operation & maintenance services and (d) wind power. In the category for commercial explosives the company is engaged in man-ufacturing bulk explosives, cartridge explosives, cast booster, detonators, detonating fuse etc, while in the case of Defence prod-ucts the company manufactures solid propellants for Agni, Astra, Akash and LRSAM strategic missiles and Pinaka rockets, ex-plosive bolts, pyro actuators, smoke markers, cable cutters etc. The company is promoted by Dr. A. N. Gupta who is a Mem-ber of Society of Explosives Engineers (USA), Chairman of Explosives Development Council of GOI and Chairman of Explo-sives Manufacturers Association of India. The company has six manufacturing facilities located in Madhya Pradesh, Maha-rashtra, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. PEL has highly trained manpower which is eminent for handling high energy chemicals. The head count is nearly 1150 experienced employees, of which nearly 550 are trained for critical work related to propellant and pyrotechnic products.




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Source: Calculations from budget documents.


INVESTMENT RATIONALE (A) PEL: Poised to grow PEL has evolved from a company manufacturing regular explosives to manufacturing solid propellants for missiles in India. This clearly indicates the strength of its R&D department and the urge to innovate into new product line with better margin products. The R&D work for the company is also propelled by DRDO. Recently in July 2016, the company delivered its 1000th Akash Missile Booster Grain to Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL). Booster Grains manufactured by PEL have applications and used as solid fuel for Akash missile; which is a Medium Range Surface to Air System with a potential to target any aerial threat up to 30 km range and at altitudes up to 18,000 meters. The company has successfully matched the quality parameters for sustainer grains for Akash missile which are currently been dispatched. In recent past, the company has signed an MOU with Israel Aerospace Industries for exploring potential business opportunities. Moreover, the company is also working in advanced stage of induction of Astra (which is an active radar homing beyond visual range air-to-air missile or BVRAAM)

The company has received Industrial Licenses for manufacture of ammunition, warheads and other defence supplies. Keeping pace with the Make in India programme and allied opportunities, the company is keen at expanding its portfolio and exploring more opportunities. At par with the concept of Make in India, Make I and Make II, PEL has been negotiating with Defence companies for use or transfer of technology to manufacture ammunitions. These include Bi-Modular Charge Systems (BMCS) and Armour-piercing fin- stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS); a new company named PELNEXT Defence Systems Private Limited was incorporated as a subsidiary for the same. As per the Management, the company has received the first offset order from a US-company. An offset order is an agreement wherein the seller of a product or service agrees to buy products or services from its client as an incentive (here the seller would be PEL). The company is also planning to enter manufacture of ammunition above 20 mm caliber. Management believes (defence sector) is the next sun rise industry, wherein the sun has already risen. Green shoots have begun to appear due to many factors including the action by the Government, make in India, IDDM etc. In case of the ammunitions, there are a lot of opportunities which are bound to open and the company intends to capitalize on the upcoming opportunity. Management also believes, the Defence segment itself has a big portfolio which can keep them busy for a couple of years. Moreover, the demand for sustainer grain is currently increasing in India. The company in October 2016 received an order of Rs277mn for supplying around 397 booster grains. (B) Make in India: For a multibillion defence market like India, the demand for defence related products and aeronautics has been ever increasing at a constant rate. As far as military expenditure is concerned, India is amongst the top 10 countries in the world. Historically, India had been dependent on imports from other countries; however the GOI is now trying to bring in self-reliance and reduce the dependency on foreign countries in the defence segment by promoting Make in India where indigenisation is the prime focus. Some of the recent policy measures to promote defence industry in India include, allowance of FDI in defence, simplifying the procedure for grant of industrial licenses, formulation of Defence Exports Strategy and its availability in the public domain, providing equal opportunities for the private and public sector and some programs such as Buy (Indian-IDDM), Buy (Indian), Buy & Make (Indian), Make I and Make II. India’s defense minister Mr. Manohar Parrikar has set ambitious goals and wants annual military exports to touch USD2bn in a couple of years. This segment has a potential to add nearly one million jobs, directly or indirectly as per CII reports. Make in India for defence sector by GOI, has opened opportunities for many in the untapped segment which has a huge potential going forward. Looking at the opportunities that can be unlocked, PEL is rightly placed to take advantage of these immense opportunities in the defence sector.




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Industrial Licenses received from DIPP

Product Award Date

Site Mixed Explosives 17/06/2016

Military fuses of all types including filling and assembling 01/07/2015

Munition 20 mm and above including filling and assembling 01/07/2015

War heads of all types including filling and assembling 01/07/2015

Flexible Liner shape charge 11/06/2015

Explosives Reacting Armour 11/06/2015

Single Base Propellant 11/06/2015

Ammunition of 40mm and above calibre 12/05/2015

Rockets and Missiles 12/05/2015

Mines related to Defence 12/05/2015

Bombs related to Defence 12/05/2015

Cartridge Explosives 12/05/2015

Site Mixed Explosives 01/05/2015

Mob Dispersion devices 20/04/2015

Source: PEL Company Presentation- June 2016


INVESTMENT RATIONALE (contd) (C) Ammunition Shortfall: Ammunitions are considered very critical war fighting requirements. However, as per some research articles, the paramilitary forces are facing shortage of ammunition for their weapons. The primary ammunition used by the armed forces is 9 mm bullets. Now, the expansion of the police forces, increased firing and target practicing, inadequate allocation of funds or the defence budget and the limited capacity of OFB to manufacture 9mm bullets are some of the major reasons and concerns due to which this problem has surfaced. According to figures available with The Sunday Express, the shortfall of 9 mm bullets in 2016-17 is likely to be over 75%. At present the Army has 20 days of ammunition in case of a full-scale war where the general norm is to have at least 40 days of War Wastage Reserves (WWR). As compared to the demand of paramilitary and state police forces which is approximately 9.3crore bullets, the OFB has agreed to supply only 2.3crore, thus the ministry has now asked the forces to import bullets for immediate needs and at the same time to set up factories to manufacture bullets with a long term vision in mind. This short fall is a definite opportunity for the private and small firms. The new changes to the Arms Rules 2016 will propel domestic and private production of arms and ammunition. These are clearly positive regulations that will lead to increased local manufacturing. The policy is also an invitation for global manufacturers to set up local manufacturing. (D) Solid Propellants for growth: DRDO has been playing a critical role for the development of many tactical missiles. A large number of these missiles are also known as SAM-surface to air missile. The sole purpose of these missiles is to protect from incoming enemy fighters, drones, helicopters, missiles and other munitions. It is anticipated that the Long-Range SAM system will be fully functional in next 2-3 years. PSU Bharat Dynamics (BDL) is also a participant in producing the LR-SAM systems in bulk. The top 5 missiles systems which come under Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) include Prithvi, Agni, Trishul, Akash and NAG. DRDO and BDL are the key developers of these missiles. Solid propellants (a booster grain or a sustainer grain) for many of these missiles are provided by PEL. Recently in July 2016, the company delivered its 1000th Akash Missile Booster Grain to BDL. There seems to be a volume growth in Akash missile system which indirectly is beneficial for PEL. The company has successfully matched the quality parameters for Sustainer grains for Akash missile which are currently been dispatched. Moreover, the company is in advanced stage of induction of Astra and other missiles and expects orders in near future. The induction of various missiles into defence provides ample opportunities in the domain of solid propellants. Dr. G. Satish Reddy, the Scientific Advisor to Raksha Mantri applauded the efforts of PEL in development of solid propellants for Astra, LRSAM, MRSAM and other missiles along with consistent, sustained and timely production. Financials: We have seen the conservative growth by the company until now. It appears that the foray into defence sector shall change the rate of growth of the company in the coming 3/5 years. This will enable investors witness a sea change in the future financials of the company as along with growth in turnover, operating margins are also expected to improve. The balance sheet size could almost double in the coming three to five years if all the plans are implemented and no external factors impact it. We would not be surprised to see PEL as a defence dominated product company in the coming five years. Risks and concerns: The handling of raw materials and handling or production of finished goods requires skilled labour. There are tight regulatory measures on ammonium nitrate which may hamper its demand in the long run. The company is dependent on the defence orders, there could be a period, when there is an influx of orders and sometimes, the industry may see sluggishness due to a low order book. Outlook and valuations: The changing face of India which will involve rising construction activities, GOI becoming more practical in promoting Make in India; opportunities like ammunition shortfall, allowance of up to 100% FDI in defence; goal to reduce the imports of weapons system & defence equipment, providing a boost to the small and medium scale enterprises and developing indigenous designs etc are some of the major opportunities which the company can benefit and capitalize on. We recommend a SIP on the stock with a target price of Rs450 with a horizon of 12 months.




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Top 5 Missiles Systems - IGMDP

Name Range Target Km

Prithvi Short-Range Surface-to-surface ballistic Missile 150-300 Km

Agni Intermediate-Range Surface-to-Surface Ballistic missile 700-1500 Km

Trishul Short-Range Low-Level Surface-to-Air Missile 9 Km

Akash Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile 30 Km

NAG Third Generation Anti-Tank Missile 3-7 Km


Glossary:

A&D - Aerospace and Defence ANFO - Ammonium Nitrate Fuel Oil AN - Ammonium Nitrate APFSDS - Armour Piercing Fin- Stabilized Discarding Sabot BMCS - Bi-Modular Charge Systems BVRAAM - Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile DAC- Defence Acquisition Council DPP - Defence Procurement Procedure DRDO - Defence Research and Development Organisation ERV - Exchange Rate Variation FDI - Foreign Direct Investment GOI - Government of India IC - Indigenous Content IDDM - Indigenously Designed, Developed and Manufactured IGMDP - Integrated Guided Missile Development Program IESA - India Electronics and Semiconductor Association

MoD - Ministry of Defence NHN - Nickel Hydrazine Nitrate NMDC- National Mineral Development Corporation OEMs - Original Equipment Manufacturers OFB - Ordnance Factories Board PETN - Penta Erythritol Tetra Nitrate R&D - Research and Development SAM - Surface to Air Missile SHQs -Service Headquarters SIP –Systematic Investment Plan UoM - Units of Measurement

WWR - War Wastage Reserve




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