oclc research the tale of the library long tail: space, collections, and the network brian lavoie...

OCLC Research

The tale of the library long tail:space, collections, and the network

Brian LavoieConsulting Research ScientistOCLC

“Space: The Final Frontier”ACRL/NEC Annual ConferenceWaltham, MAJune 1, 2007

OCLC Research The tail of the library long tail

ACRL/NEC Annual Conference

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Libraries and the network

The Long Tail and libraries

A brief tour of the library Long Tail

Space, collections, and the Long Tail



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A model of the library (Lorcan Dempsey)

Users build their workflows around the library

Aggregate resources & services at a physical location to serve local demand

SPACE

SYSTEMS/SERVICES EXPERTISE

COLLECTIONS



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Moving to the network

Digital/networked spaces proliferate Web, course management systems, collaboration tools,

social spaces …

Users build their workflows on the network Access to wide variety of resources & services Many non-library alternatives

Libraries need to expose resources & services on the network Available at point of need (in users’ workflows) Libraries need to go where the users are



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The de-coupled library

CollectionsSpace

Services

Expertise

C

S

E



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The shrinking “width of the border”

Networks make it easier to move across“library boundaries” …



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Network creates opportunities for aggregationAs physical boundaries between collections,services, expertise are removed …

AggregateCollections

Shift in focus to resources of “system”Expose the aggregate library resource

Extending over multiple collectionsShared discovery

Deeper resource sharing

Networks of collaboration/coordinationDecisions taken in inter-institutional contextShared print repositoriesCollaborative collection development

AggregateServices

AggregateContext



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“Supply & demand” for library materials

Shift from “old model” … Local collections/services serving local users

… to “new model” Networked resources/services exposed to networked users

Environment of aggregation Aggregated collections, services, expertise, space (network) Less emphasis on fragmented local print inventories More emphasis on cooperative care of collective print

collection, managed to optimize system-wide supply/demand

New patterns of supply and demand emerge Summarized by Long Tail



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The secret of Amazon, iTunes, and NetFlix …



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The Long Tail

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Items ranked by frequency of use (highest to lowest)

“Head”

“Long Tail”

Also known as: 80/20 ruleor

“Hits matter”

General model forcollection usage:

• Books• Songs• Movies• Retailers• Libraries

General model forcollection usage:

• Books• Songs• Movies• Retailers• Libraries



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Long tail economics

Traditional models of supply and demand: Consumers face limited choice because physical distribution

channels have limited capacity Shelf space, theater screens, broadcast spectrum, etc.

Physical locations serve limited pool of customers “Culture of hits”: items widely available are those popular

enough to justify allocation of scarce distribution channel space

Long Tail: economics of expanded choice Digital/network technologies overcome limitations of physical

distribution channels Virtual inventory delivered over the network

Cost of inventory management/distribution drops Makes it economical to:

Offer wide range of items Serve “network audience”



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Long tail and libraries As model of collection usage, long tail familiar to libraries …

E.g., ~10% of collection accounts for ~90% of usage ILL accounts for less than 2% of total circulation

But long tail economics (new patterns of supply and demand) offers opportunities to libraries: Complements trend for collections and other library services to

become decoupled from “space” (moving to network) Opportunity to aggregate supply (offer expanded choice) Opportunity to aggregate demand (present aggregate library

resource to network audience)

Lorcan Dempsey (D-Lib, 2006): “Librarians and the Long Tail: Some Thoughts about Libraries in the Networked Age” “Libraries collectively manage a long tail of research, learning, and

cultural materials. However, we need to do more work to make sure that this long tail is directly available to improve the work and lives of our users. Books, after all, are for use.”



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A glimpse of the library long tail

Attach empirical context to library long tail discussions e.g., mass digitization and the OCLC Research G5 study

Question: what does system-wide library long tail look like? How can it be represented; what are its characteristics?

To construct a long tail, we need: List of items in the collection Some metric of popularity

WorldCat (July 2006): ~70 million materials held by libraries worldwide (proxy for

aggregate library resource) More than 1 billion holdings:

Represents selection “choices” by libraries on behalf of users Aggregated at system-wide level Rough measure of system-wide “popularity”



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The Library Long Tail(using holdings as measure of popularity)

Note: All statistics arepreliminary and subjectto change. Final reportforthcoming soon.

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Items ranked by system-wide popularity

HEAD: Top 10% of WorldCat records (ranked by holdings)account for 80% of total WorldCat holdings

LONG TAIL: Bottom 90% of WorldCat records(ranked by holdings) account for 20% of totalWorldCat holdings

Long Tail in this form represents concentration of collecting activity in library systemUsage = selection of item

HEAD: Small proportion of items represent lion’s share of collecting activity• Closest convergence among library collections• From collection development standpoint, these are “hits” of library world

Rest of aggregate collection spread out over Long Tail of diffuse collecting activity• Convergence in selection decisions found in increasingly smaller groups of libraries• Trails off into “uniquely held” materials



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Collecting activity

Approximately 26,000 institutions represented in WorldCat holdings

ARL, academic, public, special, …

North America and beyond

Approximately 26,000 institutions represented in WorldCat holdings

ARL, academic, public, special, …

North America and beyond

Percent of institutions represented in:The Head: 98%The Tail: 72%

Percent of institutions represented in:The Head: 98%The Tail: 72%

Most institutions contribute to “feeding the tail”Aggregating collections = expanded choice



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Other characteristics of the library long tail

AGEPublished pre-1923: Published in 1990 or later:

Head: 8 percent Head: 36 percentTail: 16 percent Tail: 27 percent

LANGUAGENumber of languages identified:

Head: 300Tail: 476 SUBJECT

Number of NATC categories identified:(books with LC class # assigned)

Head: 610Tail: 626



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Subjects: a closer look

NATC subject category:Chinese Language and Literature

Head: 4,106 titlesRank in segment (by size): 224th

Tail: 97,388 titlesRank in segment (by size): 5th

NATC subject category:Chinese Language and Literature

Head: 4,106 titlesRank in segment (by size): 224th

Tail: 97,388 titlesRank in segment (by size): 5th

Libraries serve a wide range of “niches”, even in the head of thelibrary long tail

• Differ from “bricks & mortar” retailers in this regard

The tail contains deep pool of resources in each niche, far beyondwhat the user is likely to find locally



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ILL and the Long Tail(FY 2005 OCLC ILL transactions)

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Items ranked by system-wide popularity

~75% of ILL requests weredirected at the “Head”

~25% of ILL requests weredirected at the “Long Tail”

By comparison, Chris Anderson (The Long Tail, 2006) reports:

Amazon: ~ 25% of sales from the “long tail”Netflix: ~ 20% of sales from the “long tail”

* Question: are current ILL systems adequately supporting demand for the library long tail?



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Why is the Long Tail important for libraries?

Long Tail is a useful framework Long Tail is old wine in new bottles; does not reveal new issues Organize issues, place in shared context, think through

implications, and devise solutions E.g., implications of collections & services decoupled from

“physical space”

Long Tail leverages uniqueness across library collections “Rareness is common”: low degree of overlap across collections

increases potential benefit of Long Tail Aggregation of supply creates “collective collection” with many

more choices vis-à-vis any local collection Long Tail is all about expanded choice

Long Tail suggests expanded usage of library materials Untapped system-wide demand for low-use local materials? No systematic evidence yet; but some anecdotal evidence



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Space, collections, and the network Long Tail emerges from confluence of several emerging trends

Opportunity cost of print collections rising Interest in new strategies for managing print collections, e.g.:

Mass digitization: improve accessibility, permit new forms of scholarship, weave collections into general Web environment

Cooperative collection management (print storage, collection dev.) Free up shelf space, remove redundancy, exploit cheaper storage

Suggests shift from fragmented local inventories of print materials, to cooperative care of collective print collection Aggregate library resource emerges (physically or virtually) Expose aggregate library resource in many network spaces (point of need) Aggregate supply and demand: essential ingredients of Long Tail

Spillover effects: Expose library Long Tail to wider audience Increase usage of library materials on system-wide basis Optimize management/reduce cost of collective print collection Release on-site space to libraries for higher value uses



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Summing up …

Collections & services moving to the network: Physical location of less importance Surface resources in emerging workflows

Network cultivates “environments of aggregation”: Collections, services, expertise, context, space New patterns of supply and demand emerge Aggregate supply, aggregate demand: Long Tail economics Opportunities to expose, better serve demand for Long Tail

Space, collections, and the network: Value of physical space transcends print collections & services Optimize use of space across range of new/emerging uses Leverage the network: “comforting similarities, useful differences”

[email protected]

oclc research the tale of the library long tail: space, collections, and the network brian lavoie...

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