ocbc bank (ocbc sp) hold statistics better pay out
TRANSCRIPT
11.02
February 23, 2020
Banks
Sin
gapore
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH
SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 099/03/2012
Thilan Wickramasinghe [email protected] (65) 6231 5840
OCBC Bank (OCBC SP)
Better pay out
Covid-19 uncertainty, but better dividend visibility
OCBC’s 2019 earnings came marginally ahead of MKE/Street bolstered by
trading income. Allowances for credit losses though came in significantly
higher than our already bearish assumptions. While this was mostly from
legacy O&G exposure, elevated credit costs are unlikely to abate given
risks to customers from the Covid-19 epidemic and slower North Asian
growth. Nevertheless, we welcome OCBC move towards progressive
dividends and managing excess capital. This lowers earlier risks to
dividend visibility and M&A uncertainty. We have raised our TP by 3% to
SGD11.57. Maintain HOLD. We prefer UOB for stronger ASEAN exposure.
Near term likely dominated by Covid-19 risks
Management claims Covid-19 Tier-1 impact sector (hospitality, F&B,
airlines etc.) exposure is 6% of loan book, while Tier-2 (manufacturing
etc.) is a further 4%. A Tier-1 distress may raise credit charges towards
25-30bps, based on OCBC estimates. Given the rapidly evolving situation
and potential for a prolonged outbreak, we estimate credit costs of 20-
34bps in 2020-2022E (2019 34bps including special charge in Indonesia).
We also expect NPLs to rise to 1.7% by 2021E (from 1.5%) from supply
chain disruptions and falling consumption.
Focus on dividends a strong positive
OCBC’s fresh progressive dividend approach will see it paying at least the
previous year’s per share quantum. In 2019, total dividends increased
23% YoY. Based on this, we estimate 2020E dividends may be at least
SGD0.56 – which offers a 5.1% yield (55% pay out vs.48% 2019).
Management also claims they are not looking at any immediate
transactions for M&A. Overall, this lowers a significant portion of
uncertainty in terms of OCBC’s capital deployment and yield visibility, in
our view.
Raising TP to SGD11.57. Maintain HOLD
Following 2019 results, we lower 2020-2021E EPS by 4-7% to account for
Covid-19 growth risks and higher provisioning costs. Nevertheless, we
raise our absolute dividend expectation by 5-10% to reflect the Group’s
new pay out approach. As a result, we raise our multi-stage DDM (COE
9.7%, 3% terminal) target price to SGD11.57 from SGD11.26. With 5%
upside, maintain HOLD. Lower than expected impact from credit charges
due to Covid-19 holds risks on the upside to our TP, we believe.
Share Price SGD 11.02
12m Price Target SGD 11.57 (+5%)
Previous Price Target SGD 11.26
HOLD
Statistics
52w high/low (SGD)
3m avg turnover (USDm)
Free float (%)
Issued shares (m)
Market capitalisation
Major shareholders:
21.9%
4.3%
2.1%
4,257
38.2
LEE FAMILY /OCBC/
Lee Foundation
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
12.14/10.51
72.3
SGD46.9B
USD33.5B
Price Performance
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19
OCBC - (LHS, SGD) OCBC / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %)
-1M -3M -12M
Absolute (%) (1) 1 (5)
Relative to index (%) 1 1 (2)
Source: FactSet
FYE Dec (SGD m) FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E FY22E
Operating income 9,701 10,871 10,627 10,891 11,509
Pre-provision profit 5,385 6,124 5,771 5,853 6,311
Core net profit 4,492 4,869 4,502 4,738 5,378
Core EPS (SGD) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2
Core EPS growth (%) 9.4 4.8 (7.5) 5.2 13.5
Net DPS (SGD) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Core P/E (x) 10.7 9.9 10.8 10.2 9.0
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
Net dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5
Book value (SGD) 9.90 10.72 11.23 11.77 12.43
ROAE (%) 11.5 11.3 9.6 9.6 10.4
ROAA (%) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
Consensus net profit - - 4,974 5,193 na
MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (9.5) (8.8) na
February 23, 2020 2
OCBC Bank
1. Results analysis
Fig 1: Results analysis SGDm 4Q19 4Q18 YoY (%) 3Q19 QoQ 2019 2018 YoY Comments
Net interest income 1,610 1,520 5.9 1,600 0.6 6,331 5,890 7.5 Higher NIMs, loan growth Non-interest income 1,312 830 58.1 1,055 24.4 4,540 3,811 19.1 Lower insurance, trading income
Total income 2,922 2,350 24.3 2,655 10.1 10,871 9,701 12.1
Total expenses (1,292) (1,104) 17.0 (1,158) 11.6 (4,747) (4,316) 10.0 Higher staff costs and likely IT expenses Profit before allowances (PPOP) 1,630 1,246 30.8 1,497 8.9 6,124 5,385 13.7 Allowances for credit and other losses (207) (205) 1.0 (323) (35.9) (890) (288) 209.0
Allowances for macro weakness HK, SG, Indonesia IFRS9 model refinement
Associates 94 85 10.6 156 -39.7 566 455 n.m.
Profit before tax 1,517 1,126 34.7 1,330 14.1 5,800 5,552 4.5 Income tax expense (220) (171) 28.7 (139) 58.3 (778) (877) (11.3) Lower from Great Eastern tax write backs
Net profit 1,297 955 35.8 1,191 8.9 5,022 4,675 7.4 Non-controlling interests (54) (29) 86.2 (19) 184.2 (153) (183) (16.4)
Core Net Profit 1,243 926 34.2 1,172 6.1 4,869 4,492 8.4 9M19 76% of Street, 77% of MKE One time gains/expenses - - #DIV/0! - #DIV/0! - - >100 Reported Net profit 1,243 926 34.2 1,172 6.1 4,869 4,492 8.4
NIM (Reported) % 1.77% 1.72% 3 1.77% - 1.77% 1.70% 7 Higher loan yields, gapping
Gross Loans 264,773 257,705 2.7 262,816 0.7 264,773 257,705 2.7 Growth in SG, but falling in MY, Greater
China
Deposits 302,851 295,412 2.5 299,706 1.0 302,851 295,412 2.5 Increase in savings accounts
Gross NPL (%) 1.5% 1.5% (4) 1.6% (8) 1.5% 1.5% (6) Downgrades in specific corporate
accounts, macro volatility
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
2. Key assumption changes
Fig 2: Key assumption changes
2020E 2021E
Old New % Change Old New % Change
Net Interest Income 6,476 6,278 -3% 6,732 6,340 -6%
Non-interest income 4,635 4,350 -6% 4,978 4,551 -9%
Total Income 11,111 10,627 -4% 11,711 10,891 -7%
Total Expenses (4,531) (4,856) 7% (4,616) (5,038) 9%
PPOP 6,580 5,771 -12% 7,094 5,853 -17%
Allowance for credit and other losses (860) (917) 7% (974) (783) -20%
PBT 5,720 5,476 -4% 6,121 5,754 -6%
Core-Net Profit 4,716 4,502 -5% 5,056 4,738 -6%
NIM 1.71% 1.66% (5) 1.72% 1.67% (5)
Gross Loans 276,363 276,686 0.1% 292,499 295,554 1.0%
Deposits 309,429 311,825 1% 324,673 328,387 1%
Gross NPL (%) 1.95% 1.58% (37) 2.15% 1.66% (49)
Source: Maybank Kim Eng
February 23, 2020 3
OCBC Bank
3. Focus charts
Fig 3: Non-interest income as a % of total income
Source: Company data
Fig 4: Net interest income
Source: Company data
Fig 5: Core-earnings growth
Source: Company data
Fig 6: Net interest margin (reported)
Source: Company data
Fig 7: Gross NPLs and provisioning cover
Source: Company data
Fig 8: CET1 and CAR ratio
Source: Company data
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
SGDm
Net interest income (SGDm)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
SGDm
Core-earnings (SGDm) Core-earnings YoY (%)
1.60%
1.62%
1.64%
1.66%
1.68%
1.70%
1.72%
1.74%
1.76%
1.78%
1.80%
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
1.30%
1.40%
1.50%
1.60%
1.70%
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
Provision Cover (%) Gross NPLs (%)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19
CET1 Remaining Tier1+Tier 2
February 23, 2020 4
OCBC Bank
4. Valuation
Fig 9: Multi-stage DDM Valuation
Risk Free Rate 2.5% Expected Market Return 8.5% Beta 1.2 Cost of Equity 9.7%
Year 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E Stable
Dividend SGD per share 0.56 0.58 0.61 0.70 0.77 0.84 0.91 0.97 1.04 1.08 16.16
Dividend Growth y-o-y (%) 5% 3% 5% 15% 10% 10% 8% 7% 7% 4% 3%
Present Value 0.56 0.53 0.50 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.47 6.40
Target Price SGD 11.57 2020E PB at Target Price 1.0 Implied LT ROE at this PB (%) 9.9%
Source: Maybank Kim Eng
5. MKE vs. consensus
Fig 10: MKE vs. consensus SGDm 2020E 2021E
Total Income MKE 10,627 10,891
Street 10,745 11,216
Difference (%) -1% -3%
Core-Net Earnings MKE 4,502 4,738
Street 4,974 5,193
Difference (%) -9% -9%
Source: Factset, Maybank Kim Eng
February 23, 2020 5
OCBC Bank
6. Key assumptions
Fig 11: Key assumptions
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E
Balance Sheet Loan growth y-o-y (%) 24% 0% 5% 8% 9% 3% 4% 7% 7%
Corporate Loan growth y-o-y (%) 20% -1% 2% 8% 13% 6% 12% 10% -4%
Consumer Loan growth y-o-y (%) 32% 4% 9% 8% 2% -3% -10% 0% 34%
Deposit growth y-o-y (%) 25% 0% 6% 8% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5%
CASA Deposit growth y-o-y (%) 20% 10% 11% 4% -2% 7% -2% 6% 5% Cash and balances with central banks as a % of Deposits 10% 9% 6% 7% 6% 8% 5% 5% 6%
Loan to Deposit Ratio (%) 85.5% 85.5% 84.2% 83.7% 87.2% 87.4% 88.7% 90.0% 91.2%
Profit & Loss Net Interest Margin - Adjusted (%) 1.61% 1.65% 1.60% 1.60% 1.63% 1.70% 1.66% 1.67% 1.67%
Net Interest income growth y-o-y (%) 21.98% 9.57% -2.65% 7.34% 8.61% 7.49% -0.84% 1.00% 2.18%
Non-interest income growth y-o-y (%) 16.18% 6.76% 1.19% 19.41% -7.15% 19.13% -4.19% 4.62% 10.53%
PPOP growth y-o-y (%) 21.34% 5.20% -4.55% 16.85% 0.08% 13.72% -5.77% 1.42% 7.83%
PBT growth y-o-y (%) 21.69% 8.02% -8.81% 19.24% 8.90% 4.47% -5.58% 5.08% 13.09%
Cost to Income Ratio (%) 42.1% 43.8% 45.8% 43.5% 44.5% 43.7% 45.7% 46.3% 45.2%
Dividend Payout on core-profits (%) 41% 39% 43% 38% 41% 48% 55% 54% 50%
Asset Quality Gross NPL (%) 0.63% 0.97% 1.31% 1.46% 1.53% 1.47% 1.58% 1.66% 1.65%
Provision coverage (GP+SP+RLAR/NPA) (%) 171% 120% 100% 77% 75% 91% 98% 103% 110% Credit charge (Allowance for credit losses/gross loans) (%) 0.19% 0.23% 0.34% 0.29% 0.12% 0.34% 0.34% 0.27% 0.20%
NPA growth y-o-y (%) 1.0% 54.8% 41.5% 20.2% 13.6% -1.4% 12.5% 12.1% 6.5%
Capital CET1 ratio (%) 13.8% 14.8% 14.7% 13.1% 14.0% 14.9% 14.8% 14.5% 14.3%
Tier-1 ratio (%) 13.8% 14.8% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 15.6% 15.5% 15.2% 15.0%
Total Capital ratio (%) 15.9% 16.8% 17.2% 17.5% 16.5% 16.9% 16.7% 16.3% 16.1%
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
February 23, 2020 6
OCBC Bank
Value Proposition
Second-largest Singapore bank by assets. Present in
Malaysia, Indonesia and Greater China.
Acquired ING’s Asia Private Bank and Barclays’s wealth
units in HK and Singapore to build up wealth management.
87.8%-owned subsidiary Great Eastern is a leader in
Singapore life insurance.
Lending profile and competencies are not as distinctive as
UOB (SMEs) and DBS (large corporates).
Bought Wing Hang Bank (WHB) in HK in 2014 to strengthen
its presence in Pearl River Delta. Execution risks remain
due to fierce competition
Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)r
Source: Company
Price Drivers
Historical share price trend
Source: Company, Maybank Kim Eng
1. Acquired and privatised Wing Hang Bank for USD5b.
Issued rights to raise SGD3.3b.
2. 2014 core net profit up 25% YoY from robust lending and
strong income growth.
3. Sharp CNY devaluation in August 2015. Worries over lower
energy (O&G) and commodity prices, and China NPLs.
4. Positive sentiment from interest rate hikes, USD strength
and economic recovery. Risks from O&G abate.
5. Fears of US-China trade war and loan growth decline
from property cooling measure
Financial Metrics
Greater China is a core business for the Group as a result
of Wing Hang Bank purchase (2014). Integration has
increased regional contribution to pretax profit from a
mere ~6% in 2013 to ~21% in 2018. Loans from Greater
China now form 25% of total loans.
NIMs, while expanding 10bps between 2017-2019, may
contract 3bps by 2022E from lower rates
Non-interest income – led by wealth management,
insurance and trading – should increase from 39% in 2018
to 44% by 2022E
Macro volatility may drive gross NPLs from 1.5% in 2019 to
1.7% by 2022E
Net interest margins
Source: Company
Swing Factors
Upside
Falling funding costs may support wider spreads
Higher non-interest income from wealth management
and higher contributions from Great Eastern.3
Value accretive acquisition
Downside
Sharp decline in value of trading securities and shocks in
fixed-income portfolio.
Increasing macro-volatility resulting in faster than
expected asset quality declines
Slower North Asia growth impacting returns
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019E 2021E
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19
OCBC - (LHS, SGD) OCBC / Straits Times Index - (RHS, %)
1.50%
1.55%
1.60%
1.65%
1.70%
1.75%
1.80%
1.85%
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021E
1
1 2
3
5
4
February 23, 2020 7
OCBC Bank
FYE 31 Dec FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E FY22E
Key Metrics
Core P/E (x) 10.7 9.9 10.8 10.2 9.0
Core FD P/E (x) 10.7 9.9 10.8 10.2 9.0
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
P/NTA (x) 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Net dividend yield (%) 3.8 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.5
INCOME STATEMENT (SGD m)
Interest income 11,049.0 12,098.0 12,121.3 12,456.9 12,943.9
Interest expense (5,159.0) (5,767.0) (5,843.8) (6,116.4) (6,465.0)
Net interest income 5,890.0 6,331.0 6,277.5 6,340.5 6,478.9
Net insurance income 911.0 976.0 1,005.3 1,025.4 1,056.1
Net fees and commission 2,031.0 2,123.0 1,910.7 2,006.2 2,307.2
Other income 869.0 1,441.0 1,433.7 1,518.9 1,666.4
Total non-interest income 3,811.0 4,540.0 4,349.6 4,550.5 5,029.7
Operating income 9,701.0 10,871.0 10,627.2 10,891.0 11,508.6
Staff costs (2,606.0) (2,840.0) (2,953.6) (3,042.2) (3,133.5)
Other operating expenses (1,710.0) (1,907.0) (1,902.7) (1,995.9) (2,064.1)
Operating expenses (4,316.0) (4,747.0) (4,856.3) (5,038.1) (5,197.6)
Pre-provision profit 5,385.0 6,124.0 5,770.9 5,852.9 6,311.1
Loan impairment allowances (288.0) (890.0) (917.2) (783.4) (625.6)
Other allowances 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Associates & JV income 455.0 566.0 622.6 684.9 821.8
Pretax profit 5,552.0 5,800.0 5,476.3 5,754.3 6,507.3
Income tax (877.0) (778.0) (821.4) (863.1) (976.1)
Minorities (183.0) (153.0) (153.0) (153.0) (153.0)
Discontinued operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reported net profit 4,492.0 4,869.0 4,501.9 4,738.2 5,378.2
Core net profit 4,492.0 4,869.0 4,501.9 4,738.2 5,378.2
Preferred Dividends (40.0) (40.0) (40.0) (40.0) (40.0)
BALANCE SHEET (SGD m)
Cash & deposits with banks 57,783.0 59,014.0 42,497.0 41,745.3 37,017.2
Sec. under resale agreements 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Derivatives financial assets 7,201.0 7,349.0 7,500.0 7,654.2 7,811.5
Dealing securities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Available-for-sale securities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investment securities 53,318.0 57,195.0 61,385.6 48,931.1 43,547.8
Loans & advances 255,193.0 262,045.0 273,434.4 291,670.4 311,423.2
Central bank deposits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investment in associates/JVs 3,183.0 3,638.0 3,638.0 3,638.0 3,638.0
Insurance assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fixed assets 4,217.0 4,467.0 4,731.8 5,012.3 5,309.5
Intangible assets 5,093.0 4,980.0 4,980.0 4,980.0 4,980.0
Other assets 81,555.0 93,003.0 106,058.0 120,945.5 133,040.0
Total assets 467,543.0 491,691.0 504,224.7 524,576.8 546,767.3
Deposits from customers 295,412.0 302,851.0 311,825.1 328,386.7 346,195.4
Deposits from banks & FIs 7,576.0 8,250.0 8,984.0 9,783.2 10,653.6
Derivatives financial instruments 7,105.0 7,687.0 7,687.0 7,687.0 7,687.0
Subordinated debt 3,247.0 1,797.0 1,797.0 1,797.0 1,797.0
Other securities in issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other borrowings 27,025.0 27,591.0 28,168.9 28,758.8 29,361.1
Insurance liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other liabilities 83,786.0 94,912.0 94,912.0 94,912.0 94,912.0
Total liabilities 424,151.0 443,088.0 453,373.9 471,324.7 490,606.1
Share capital 15,750.0 17,261.0 17,261.0 17,261.0 17,261.0
Reserves 24,890.0 28,404.0 30,651.8 33,053.0 35,962.1
Shareholders' funds 40,640.0 45,665.0 47,912.8 50,314.0 53,223.1
Preference shares 1,497.0 1,497.0 1,497.0 1,497.0 1,497.0
Minority interest 1,255.0 1,441.0 1,441.0 1,441.0 1,441.0
Total equity 43,392.0 48,603.0 50,850.8 53,252.0 56,161.1
Total liabilities & equity 467,543.0 491,691.0 504,224.7 524,576.8 546,767.3
February 23, 2020 8
OCBC Bank
FYE 31 Dec FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E FY22E
Key Ratios
Growth (%)
Net interest income 8.6 7.5 (0.8) 1.0 2.2
Non-interest income (7.1) 19.1 (4.2) 4.6 10.5
Operating expenses 4.1 10.0 2.3 3.7 3.2
Pre-provision profit 0.1 13.7 (5.8) 1.4 7.8
Core net profit 11.1 8.4 (7.5) 5.2 13.5
Gross loans 8.6 2.7 4.5 6.8 6.9
Customer deposits 4.1 2.5 3.0 5.3 5.4
Total assets 2.8 5.2 2.5 4.0 4.2
Profitability (%)
Non-int. income/Total income 39.3 41.8 40.9 41.8 43.7
Average lending yields 3.06 3.25 3.21 3.28 3.34
Average cost of funds 1.57 1.71 1.69 1.70 1.71
Net interest margin 1.63 1.70 1.66 1.67 1.67
Net income margin 46.30 44.79 42.36 43.51 46.73
Cost/income 44.5 43.7 45.7 46.3 45.2
Liquidity (%)
Loans/customer deposits 86.5 86.6 87.7 88.8 90.0
Asset quality (%)
Net NPL 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Gross NPL 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7
Net NPF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(SP+GP)/average gross loans 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Loan loss coverage 75.4 90.7 97.6 103.2 110.2
Capital adequacy (%)
CET1 14.0 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.3
Tier 1 capital 14.8 15.6 15.5 15.2 15.0
Risk-weighted capital 16.5 16.9 16.7 16.3 16.1
Returns (%)
ROAE 11.5 11.3 9.6 9.6 10.4
ROAA 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0
Shareholders equity/assets 8.7 9.3 9.5 9.6 9.7
Source: Company; Maybank
February 23, 2020 9
OCBC Bank
Research Offices
MACRO
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY Head of Regional Macro Research (65) 6231 5836 [email protected]
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
CHUA Hak Bin Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (65) 6231 5830 [email protected]
LEE Ju Ye Singapore | Thailand (65) 6231 5844 [email protected]
Linda LIU Singapore | Vietnam (65) 6231 5847 [email protected]
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI (603) 2082 6818 [email protected]
Ramesh LANKANATHAN (603) 2297 8685 [email protected]
William POH (603) 2297 8683 [email protected]
FX
Saktiandi SUPAAT Head of FX Research (65) 6320 1379 [email protected]
Christopher WONG (65) 6320 1347 [email protected]
TAN Yanxi (65) 6320 1378 [email protected]
Fiona LIM (65) 6320 1374 [email protected]
STRATEGY
Willie CHAN
Regional (852) 2268 0631 [email protected]
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN
ASEAN (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]
FIXED INCOME
Winson PHOON, ACA (65) 6812 8807 [email protected]
SE THO Mun Yi (603) 2074 7606 [email protected]
REGIONAL EQUITIES
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Regional Equity Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of ASEAN Equity Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow Research, Technology & Innovation
(65) 6231 5839 [email protected]
MALAYSIA
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN, Head of Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected] • Strategy
Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional • Automotive
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property
LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] • Glove • Ports • Shipping • Healthcare • Petrochem
Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824 [email protected] • REITs • Consumer Discretionary • Technology
Jade TAM
(603) 2297 8687 [email protected] • Consumer Staples
TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2082 6858 [email protected]
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe (603) 2297 8694 [email protected] • Chartist
Amirah AZMI (603) 2082 8769 [email protected] • Retail Research
SINGAPORE
CHUA Su Tye (65) 6231 5842 [email protected] • REITs
LAI Gene Lih, CFA (65) 6231 5832 [email protected] • Technology • Healthcare
Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE (65) 6231 5840 [email protected] • Banks • Consumer
TAN Chin Poh Head of Retail Research (65) 6231 5928 [email protected]
Eric ONG (65) 6231 5924 [email protected] • Retail Research
Matthew SHIM (65) 6231 5929 [email protected] • Retail Research
Kareen CHAN (65) 6231 5926 [email protected] • Retail Research
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research
(91) 22 4223 2632 [email protected]
• Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
Neerav DALAL
(91) 22 4223 2606 [email protected]
• Software Technology • Telcos
Kshitiz PRASAD
(91) 22 4223 2607
• Banks
INDONESIA
Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (62) 21 8066 8680 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement • Autos • Consumer • Utility
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 8066 8689 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 8066 8691 [email protected] • Property
Arnanto JANURI (62) 21 8066 8683 arnanto.januri @maybank-ke.co.id
• Construction
PHILIPPINES
Katherine TAN (63) 2 8849 8843 [email protected] • Banks • Conglomerates • Ports
Romel LIBO-ON (63) 2 8849 8844 [email protected] • Property
Kayzer LLANDA (63) 2 8849 8839 [email protected] • Utilities
Fredrick De GUZMAN (63) 2 8849 8847 [email protected] • Consumer
THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
Teerapol UDOMVEJ, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Healthcare
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Kaushal LADHA, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530 [email protected]
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430 [email protected] • Media • Commerce
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap
Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401 [email protected] • Media • Electronics
Wijit ARAYAPISIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategist
Kritsapong PATAN (66) 2658 5000 ext 1310 [email protected] • Chartist
VIETNAM
LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified
LE Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
QUAN Trong Thanh (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184 [email protected] • Banks
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084 [email protected] • Consumer
Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180 [email protected] • Utilities
NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen Head of Retail Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil & Gas • Banking
NGUYEN Thanh Lam (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086 [email protected] • Technical Analysis
February 23, 2020 10
OCBC Bank
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies d iscussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives” ) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these f orward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solic it business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report to the extent permitted by law.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this repor t.
Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical val uations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research reports of MBKET Institutional and Retail Research Department may differ in either recommendation or target price, or both. MBKET Retail Research is intended for retail investors (http://kelive.maybank-ke.co.th) while Maybank Kim Eng Institutional Research is intended only for institutional investors based outside Thailand only.
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evalua tion of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. MBKET does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Tha ipat Institute made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. I t is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
US This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a -6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security mentioned within must do so with: Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc. 400 Park Avenue, 11th Floor, New York, New York 10022, 1-(212) 688-8886 and not with, the issuer of this report.
February 23, 2020 11
OCBC Bank
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to he rein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 23 February 2020, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: As of 23 February 2020, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. India: As of 23 February 2020, and at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, KESI, authoring analyst or their associate / relative does not hold any financial interest or any actual or beneficial ownership in any shares or having any conflict of interest in the subject companies except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
In the past twelve months KESI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject companies or third party in connection with the research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the inves tment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to soph isticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regula ted, by the Financial Conduct Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access t o such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This report is distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 198700034E) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities (“PTMKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (Indonesia). Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam. Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) (Reg. No. INZ000010538). KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) and as Research Analyst (Reg No: INH000000057) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
February 23, 2020 12
OCBC Bank
Historical recommendations and target price: OCBC Bank (OCBC SP)
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
10.0
10.4
10.8
11.2
11.6
12.0
12.4
Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20
OCBC Bank
23 Aug Buy : SGD14.6
30 Jan Hold : SGD10.9
25 Feb Hold : SGD10.7
15 May Hold : SGD11.1
5 Aug Hold : SGD11.1
6 Nov Hold : SGD11.3
February 23, 2020 13
OCBC Bank
Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
(A Participating Organisation of
Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,
100 Jalan Tun Perak,
50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888;
Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd
Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd
50 North Canal Road
Singapore 059304
Tel: (65) 6336 9090
London Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(London) Ltd
PNB House
77 Queen Victoria Street
London EC4V 4AY, UK
Tel: (44) 20 7332 0221
Fax: (44) 20 7332 0302
New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA
Inc
400 Park Avenue, 11th Floor
New York, New York 10022,
U.S.A.
Tel: (212) 688 8886
Fax: (212) 688 3500
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,
No.1, Jalan Maarof
59000 Kuala Lumpur
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Indonesia PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities
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Wall Street, Chakala, Andheri -
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Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue
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(Thailand) Public Company Limited
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
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Bangkok 10330, Thailand
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Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)
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Saudi Arabia In association with
Anfaal Capital
Ground Floor, KANOO Building
No.1 - Al-Faisaliyah,Madina Road,
P.O.Box 126575 Jeddah 21352
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Tel: (966) 920023423
South Asia Sales Trading Kevin Foy
Regional Head Sales Trading
Tel: (65) 6636-3620
US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447
North Asia Sales Trading Andrew Lee
Tel: (852) 2268 0283
US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635
Indonesia Iwan Atmadjaja [email protected] (62) 21 8066 8555
London Greg Smith [email protected] Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
New York James Lynch [email protected] Tel: (212) 688 8886
India Sanjay Makhija [email protected] Tel: (91)-22-6623-2629
Philippines Keith Roy [email protected] Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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