observational data source impacts in the ncep gdas
DESCRIPTION
Observational Data Source Impacts In The NCEP GDAS. Mr. Kevin Cooley CIO & Director Central Operations, NCEP. Sponsored by JCSDA and NPOESS IPO. Introduction. Contributors Dr. Stephen Lord, Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center Dr. Tom Zapotocny, University of Wisconsin - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Observational Data Source Impacts In The NCEP GDAS
Mr. Kevin CooleyCIO & Director Central Operations, NCEP
Sponsored by JCSDA and NPOESS IPO
Introduction• Contributors
– Dr. Stephen Lord, Director, NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
– Dr. Tom Zapotocny, University of Wisconsin• [email protected]
– Dr. James Jung, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA)
• Organizations– NCEP Environmental Modeling Center– Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Introduction (Cont.)
• Evaluation of current observing systems provides – An important baseline for observing system
assessment and planning– Useful information for tuning and improving
operational system
• JCSDA– Preparing for future observing systems (METOP,
NPP, NPOESS)– Assessment of current systems observing system
components (at operational resolution) – Focus on satellite data– Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)
for advanced instruments
• NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)– SSI version scheduled for operational implementation
• Includes ability to assimilation AIRS data
– Operational forecast model resolution• T254L64 to 84 h• T170L42 to 180 h• T126L28 to 360 h
• Forecasts at 00Z only• Operational data cutoffs (except for new
instruments)
Introduction (Cont.)
GFS Experimental Setup• Two Time Periods
– 45 day runs• 15 Jan 2003 – 15 Feb 2003• 15 Aug 2003 – 20 Sep 2003
• Control– All operational observations– Includes 3 AMSU configuration– AQUA observations not included
• Data Denials– All AMSU– All HIRS– AIRS– Quikscat– GOES Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs)– TRMM (August-Sept. 2004 only)
• Fields archived for further analysis
Winter Case Results
Sponsored by JCSDA and NPOESS IPO
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrela
tio
n '
control
no amsu
no conv
Data Assimilation Impacts in the NCEP GDAS (cont)
AMSU and “All Conventional” data provide nearly the same amount of improvement to the Northern Hemisphere.
A. No AMSU Global RMS Temperature Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
B. No HIRS Global RMS Temperature Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
Impact of AMSU and HIRS on Global Temperature Forecasts
RMS Forecast Impact
A. No AMSU Global RMS u-component Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
B. No HIRS Global RMS u-component Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
v
Impact of AMSU and HIRS on Global Zonal Wind Forecasts
RMS Forecast Impact
A. No AMSU Global RMS Rel. Hum. Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
B. No HIRS Global RMS Rel. Hum. Forecast Impact (15 January 03-15 February 03)
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10 Day 11 Day 12
Forecast Length
Per
cent
100 200 300 500 700 850 1000
Impact of AMSU and HIRS on Global Humidity Forecasts
RMS Forecast Impact
N. Hemisphere500 mb htanomaly correlation
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no amsu
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no hirs
AMSU: 0.5 day improvement at 5 days
No HIRS
S. Hemisphere 500 mb htanomaly correlation
S. Hemisphere 500mb AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no amsu
S. Hemisphere 500mb AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no hirs
AMSU: 0.75 day improvement at 5 days
No HIRS
Tropics 850 mb Vector Difference 20N - 20S (F-A) RMS 15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
RM
S [
m/s
] '
control
no amsu
Tropics 850 mb Vector Difference 20N - 20S (F-A) RMS 15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
RM
S [
m/s
] '
control
no hirs
Tropics850 mb Vector (F-A)RMS
The REAL problem is Day 1
No AMSU
No HIRS
Tropics 200 mb Vector Difference 20N - 20S (F-A) RMS 15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
RM
S [
m/s
] '
control
no amsu
Tropics 200 mb Vector Difference 20N - 20S (F-A) RMS 15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
RM
S [
m/s
] '
control
no hirs
Tropics200 mb Vector (F-A)RMS
The REAL problem is Day 1
No AMSU
No HIRS
N. Hemisphere 1000 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n
'
control
no Qscat
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no Qscat
No Quikscat
S. Hemisphere 1000 mb AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no Qscat
S. Hemisphere 500mb AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no Qscat
Summer Case Results
Sponsored by JCSDA and NPOESS IPO
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no 15 amsu
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Aug - 20 Sep '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no hirs
N. Hemisphere500 mb htanomaly correlationNH Summer
N. Hemisphere500 mb htanomaly correlationNH Winter
HIRSNorthern Hemisphere
Summer vs Winter Impact
Larger HIRS impactIn Northern Hemisphere in summer than in winter
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Jan - 15 Feb '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no 15 amsu
N. Hemisphere 500 mb AC Z 20N - 80N Waves 1-20
15 Aug - 20 Sep '03
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast [days]
An
om
aly
Co
rrel
atio
n '
control
no hirs
N. Hemisphere500 mb htanomaly correlationNH Summer
N. Hemisphere500 mb htanomaly correlationNH Winter
HIRSNorthern Hemisphere
Summer vs Winter Impact
Larger HIRS impactIn Northern Hemisphere in summer than in winter
Impact on Hurricane Track Forecasts
AMSUHIRS
GOES AMVQuikscatTRMM
Sponsored by JCSDA and NPOESS IPO
Satellite data ~ 10-15% impact
Impact of Removing AMSU, HIRS, GOES Wind, Quikscat Surface Wind Data on Hurricane Track Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin - 2003 (34 cases)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
% Im
prov
emen
t NOAMSU
NOHIRS
NOGOESW
NOQuikscat
Impact of Removing AMSU, HIRS, GOES Wind, Quikscat Surface Wind Data on Hurricane Track Forecasts in the East Pacific Basin - 2003 (24 cases)
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
12 24 36 48 72
Forecast Hour
% Im
pro
vem
ent
NOAMSU
NOHIRS
NOGOESW
NOQuikscat
Inconsistentwith AMSU
results at 12hours
TRMM impact < 5%Impact of Removing TRMM Observations on Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in the
East Pac. - 2004 (20 cases)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
% Im
prov
emen
t
NOTRMM
Improved initial position error (1 km)
Impact of Removing TRMM Observations on Hurricane Track Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin - 2004 (36 cases)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
% Im
prov
emen
t
NOTRMM
Summary
• AMSU impacts dominate all forecast variables– Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere and
tropics– Up to 12 h in Northern Hemisphere at 5 days– Up to 18 h in Southern Hemisphere at 5 days
• HIRS impacts largest in – Northern Hemisphere in summer– Moisture field
• Satellite data cannot correct rapidly growing (24 hours) model errors in tropics