reanalysis at ncep: past, present and futurejra.kishou.go.jp/jra-25/3rac/program/v1-103.pdfnortheast...

Reanalysis at NCEP: Reanalysis at NCEP: Past, Present and Past, Present and

Future Future Robert KistlerRobert Kistler

NCEP Staff, Contractors and NCEP Staff, Contractors and Visiting Scientists, Visiting Scientists, Past and Present Past and Present

[email protected]

Reanalysis at NCEPReanalysis at NCEPPastPast•• NCEP/NCAR Global 1 (R1,GR1)NCEP/NCAR Global 1 (R1,GR1)•• NCEP/DOE Global 2 (R2,GR2)NCEP/DOE Global 2 (R2,GR2)•• North American Regional (NARR)North American Regional (NARR)•• Case studiesCase studies

PresentPresent•• Climate Forecast System (CFSRR)Climate Forecast System (CFSRR)

FutureFuture•• CFS Reforecasts (CFSRR)CFS Reforecasts (CFSRR)•• Transition to operationsTransition to operations

19901990Ron McPherson, Director, NMCRon McPherson, Director, NMCEugenia Eugenia KalnayKalnay, Chief, Dev. Div, Chief, Dev. DivMasao Masao KanamitsuKanamitsu, Chief, Modeling branch, Chief, Modeling branchDave Dave RodenhuisRodenhuis, Chief, CAC, Chief, CACAcquire Cray YMP (Acquire Cray YMP (UnicosUnicos))ObsObs in ON29 and grids in ON84 (1973)in ON29 and grids in ON84 (1973)Text terminals and paper graphicsText terminals and paper graphics

Eugenia asks for specEugenia asks for spec’’s for the following s for the following ideasideas……

ideas, ~ 1990ideas, ~ 1990Create a Climate Data Create a Climate Data Assimilation System Assimilation System (CDAS) isolated from the (CDAS) isolated from the noise of NWP noise of NWP improvements improvements ……Extend that system Extend that system backwards in time as far as backwards in time as far as the available digitized the available digitized observations could be observations could be obtained obtained Run 40Run 40--50 years at NCEP 50 years at NCEP in 2in 2--3 years 3 years ……..

My initial reactionMy initial reaction……

You cannot be serious!In spite of doubts based on past scarcities,

I submitted a request for what I thought to be unobtainable…

a clone of the existing production computer system

We got it!

Innovative SolutionsInnovative SolutionsApril 1991 Workshop (BAMS, Dec 1991)April 1991 Workshop (BAMS, Dec 1991)

•• Formed a Partnership with NCAR, Roy Formed a Partnership with NCAR, Roy JenneJenne•• NCEP NCEP –– run the models, NCAR run the models, NCAR –– data archeology & output distributiondata archeology & output distribution•• Received broad community inputReceived broad community input

3D3D--VAR replaced OI in the GDASVAR replaced OI in the GDAS•• Derber, J.C., D.F. Parrish, and S.J. Lord, 1991: The New Global Derber, J.C., D.F. Parrish, and S.J. Lord, 1991: The New Global Operational Analysis System Operational Analysis System

at the National Meteorological Center. at the National Meteorological Center. WeaWea. Forecasting. Forecasting, , 66, 538, 538––547. 547.

Acquired a robotic silo for data storage (Eugenia and DiMego creAcquired a robotic silo for data storage (Eugenia and DiMego creativity!)ativity!)

Funding from NOAA Office of Global Programs. Mike CoughlinFunding from NOAA Office of Global Programs. Mike Coughlin

Jack Woolen developed BUFR Jack Woolen developed BUFR Mark Iredell and Wesley Mark Iredell and Wesley EbisuzakiEbisuzaki developed GRIBdeveloped GRIBBrian Doty, COLA, provided GRADS with GRIB interfaceBrian Doty, COLA, provided GRADS with GRIB interface

A plan (NMC Office note 401)A plan (NMC Office note 401)•• Fall 1993Fall 1993•• Anticipated start in 1994 Anticipated start in 1994 -- Cray C90 freed the YMPCray C90 freed the YMP--88

NMC O.N. 401NMC O.N. 401XIII. AcknowledgementsXIII. AcknowledgementsThis has been, and continues to be, the largest and most ambitioThis has been, and continues to be, the largest and most ambitious project ever undertaken atus project ever undertaken atNMC (jointly with NCAR).NMC (jointly with NCAR). The enthusiastic support of the Director of NMC, Ron McPherson,The enthusiastic support of the Director of NMC, Ron McPherson, and of theand of thePresident of UCAR, President of UCAR, Rick Rick AnthesAnthes have been essential in giving us with the courage to undertake have been essential in giving us with the courage to undertake it.it.The Advisory Committee's role has been crucial: during the formaThe Advisory Committee's role has been crucial: during the formal meetings and mail reviewsl meetings and mail reviewsthe Committee made major suggestions for improvements. We are mothe Committee made major suggestions for improvements. We are most grateful to the Chair of thest grateful to the Chair of theAdvisory Committee, Advisory Committee, Prof. Julia Prof. Julia NoguesNogues--PaeglePaegle who gave us not only advice and many importantwho gave us not only advice and many importantsuggestions, but also constant support. suggestions, but also constant support. Prof. Mark CaneProf. Mark Cane originally proposed that NMC carry out a longoriginally proposed that NMC carry out a longreanalysis, in addition to the CDAS.reanalysis, in addition to the CDAS.Many people have contributed to the project within NMC. We are mMany people have contributed to the project within NMC. We are most grateful to ost grateful to Fran Fran BalintBalintfor making hardware resources available, for making hardware resources available, WaymanWayman BakerBaker for his initial efforts in the organization of thefor his initial efforts in the organization of theproject. project. John Derber, John Derber, YuejianYuejian Zhu, Zhu, JieJie MengMeng, Mark Iredell, Laurie , Mark Iredell, Laurie MoroneMorone, Dennis Keyser, Robert, Dennis Keyser, RobertGrumbineGrumbine HuaHua--lulu PanPan, and many others scientists from the Development Division for t, and many others scientists from the Development Division for their manyheir manytechnical contributions and advice.technical contributions and advice.NESDISNESDIS personnel have been most helpful in providing a data base of TOpersonnel have been most helpful in providing a data base of TOVS operational data.VS operational data.Brian Doty from COLABrian Doty from COLA, with the encouragement of , with the encouragement of Drs. J. Drs. J. KinterKinter and J. and J. ShuklaShukla, generously provided, generously providedthe the GrADSGrADS graphics systemgraphics system, and developed considerable new components required by the Rean, and developed considerable new components required by the Reanalysis.alysis.David Parker and Chris David Parker and Chris Folland'sFolland's offer to make available the UKMO GISSToffer to make available the UKMO GISST reanalysis of ice and seareanalysis of ice and seasurface temperature for the period earlier than 1982 has been grsurface temperature for the period earlier than 1982 has been gratefully accepted. The atefully accepted. The JapaneseJapaneseMeteorological OfficeMeteorological Office has provided us with cloud track wind data, and offered additiohas provided us with cloud track wind data, and offered additional observationsnal observationsnot available on GTS. not available on GTS. ECMWFECMWF has offered to provide data for those periods where the NMC/NCAhas offered to provide data for those periods where the NMC/NCARRdata base is not available.data base is not available.This project would have been impossible without the support of tThis project would have been impossible without the support of the he NOAA Office of GlobalNOAA Office of GlobalProgramsPrograms. We are in particular most grateful to . We are in particular most grateful to Michael Michael CoughlanCoughlan, the Program Manager, who has, the Program Manager, who hasbeen helpful and knowledgeable, and made the proposal and budgetbeen helpful and knowledgeable, and made the proposal and budget submission and approval processsubmission and approval processseem almost easy. seem almost easy. Ken MooneyKen Mooney support and suggestions were also very helpful.support and suggestions were also very helpful.Similarly, the support of the NCAR effort by the Similarly, the support of the NCAR effort by the National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation has beenhas beenessential, and in particular we want to acknowledge the support essential, and in particular we want to acknowledge the support of of Jay FeinJay Fein..

Original design, 1991Original design, 1991

1958 1979 1992 2000

Basic Concept:

CDAS

35 Years “pocket” reanalysis

“full” (CDAS) reanalysis

Execution period ( )

And then we start again with CDAS 2000!

What happenedWhat happened……

1948 1979 1994 2000

Basic Concept:

CDAS-R1

R2 reanalysis

Execution period ( )

CDAS 2000 became North America Regional Reanalysis

1957

YMP8J916

IBM RISCDOE Livermore

CDAS-R2

R1

1973 1985 1989

Worldwide Distribution via BAMSWorldwide Distribution via BAMS

Lead to remarkable useLead to remarkable use……July 2003July 2003

Dear friends:Dear friends:

I received an email from Jennifer Minnick, ISI Web of Science, I received an email from Jennifer Minnick, ISI Web of Science, indicating that our 1996 paper is indicating that our 1996 paper is ranked as #1 in number of ranked as #1 in number of citations among all Geosciences papers published in the citations among all Geosciences papers published in the past decadepast decade, with 1,795 cites. I checked today, and the number , with 1,795 cites. I checked today, and the number is still growing, well over 2000 (Kistler et al 2001 is also amois still growing, well over 2000 (Kistler et al 2001 is also among ng the most cited this year).the most cited this year).

I wanted to congratulate you all and express how happy and I wanted to congratulate you all and express how happy and honored I am to have worked and learned with you on this projecthonored I am to have worked and learned with you on this project. . Let me know if you would like to write something about the Let me know if you would like to write something about the project for ISI.project for ISI.

EugeniaEugenia

NCEP/DOE Reanalysis IINCEP/DOE Reanalysis II

In response to the problems In response to the problems uncovered midway through GR1uncovered midway through GR1Initiative by Masao Initiative by Masao KanamitsuKanamitsu•• Port GR1 system to DOE LivermorePort GR1 system to DOE Livermore•• Fix know problemsFix know problems•• Upgrade to latest model Upgrade to latest model

parameterizationsparameterizations•• Drive soil moisture with Drive soil moisture with precipprecip obsobs

ReanalysisReanalysis--2 summary2 summary

Error corrected and system improved Error corrected and system improved version of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.version of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.Period 1979Period 1979--current. Updated every current. Updated every month at CPC/NCEP.month at CPC/NCEP.System ported to SIO. Observation System ported to SIO. Observation System experiment is in progress.System experiment is in progress.

~40 days per day of analysis on dual ~40 days per day of analysis on dual processor PC. processor PC.

Similarities Similarities

Port of NCEP scripts to DOEPort of NCEP scripts to DOESame resolution as NCEP/NCAR Same resolution as NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis: T62 L28Reanalysis: T62 L28Same raw observation dataSame raw observation data•• PAOB problem fixedPAOB problem fixed

Same dependence of satellite Same dependence of satellite temperature retrievalstemperature retrievals

Error fixesError fixes

Fix snow cover analysis errorFix snow cover analysis errorRemoved spectral snow problem Removed spectral snow problem Fixed oceanic albedo errorFixed oceanic albedo error

Improvements to the modelImprovements to the modelNew boundary layer (nonNew boundary layer (non--local scheme by local scheme by Hong and Pan)Hong and Pan)New short wave radiation (Chou, 1992)New short wave radiation (Chou, 1992)Updated cloud parameterization and Updated cloud parameterization and RHRH--cloud relationshipcloud relationshipRun radiation code more frequently Run radiation code more frequently (1 hr (1 hr vsvs 3 hrs) on full Gaussian grid3 hrs) on full Gaussian gridSmoothed Smoothed orographyorographySeveral other improvements in fixed field Several other improvements in fixed field and diagnostics.and diagnostics.

New system componentsNew system components

Simple rainfall assimilation for Simple rainfall assimilation for soil wetness using observed Xiesoil wetness using observed Xie--Arkin pentad precipitationArkin pentad precipitation. .

Nudging of deep layer soil Nudging of deep layer soil wetness to climatology removedwetness to climatology removed

Summary of the RSummary of the R--2 soil moisture 2 soil moisture verificationverification

Very reasonable over U.S.Very reasonable over U.S.Over China and Russia, skill varies Over China and Russia, skill varies significantly.significantly.•• Problem in observation itselfProblem in observation itself•• RepresentativenessRepresentativeness•• Soil and vegetation characteristicsSoil and vegetation characteristics•• Error in the hydrology model and atmospheric Error in the hydrology model and atmospheric

forcings.forcings.

Better products, overall.Better products, overall.

NCEP/EMC Summary for GR2NCEP/EMC Summary for GR2

QCQC’’eded data base served as starting data base served as starting point for future point for future reanalysesreanalyses

Initial conditions used for Initial conditions used for Climate Forecast System (CFS) Climate Forecast System (CFS) reforecastsreforecasts

Development of next generation Development of next generation Land Data Assimilation methods Land Data Assimilation methods

Late 90Late 90’’s Critical Eventss Critical Events……

Eugenia, Kana departEugenia, Kana departLouis Louis UccelliniUccellini, Director of NCEP , Director of NCEP Sep 27, 1999 + asbestos in FOB 4Sep 27, 1999 + asbestos in FOB 4

Cray C90 fire Cray C90 fire •• Accelerated transition to IBMAccelerated transition to IBM•• Relocation to modern facilityRelocation to modern facility

Sep 11, 2001 + D.C. Anthrax incidentsSep 11, 2001 + D.C. Anthrax incidents•• Mirrored dual commercial computer sitesMirrored dual commercial computer sites•• Sensible procurement and upgrade schedulesSensible procurement and upgrade schedules•• Alleviated space limitationsAlleviated space limitations•• Allowed retention of phased out equipmentAllowed retention of phased out equipment

NCEP Regional NCEP Regional ReanalysisReanalysis

Fedor MesingerFedor Mesinger11, Geoff DiMego, Geoff DiMego22, Eugenia Kalnay, Eugenia Kalnay33, Perry Shafran, Perry Shafran44, Wesley , Wesley EbisuzakiEbisuzaki55, Dusan Jovic, Dusan Jovic44, Jack Woollen, Jack Woollen44, Kenneth Mitchell, Kenneth Mitchell22, Eric Rogers, Eric Rogers22, Michael , Michael

EkEk11, Yun Fan, Yun Fan66, Robert Grumbine, Robert Grumbine22, Wayne Higgins, Wayne Higgins55, Hong Li, Hong Li33, Ying Lin, Ying Lin22, Geoff , Geoff ManikinManikin22, David Parrish, David Parrish22, and Wei Shi, and Wei Shi66

11NCEP/EMC and UCAR, NCEP/EMC and UCAR, 22NCEP/EMC, NCEP/EMC, 33Univ. of MD, Univ. of MD, 44NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, NCEP/EMC and SAIC/GSO, 55NCEP/CPC, NCEP/CPC, 66NCEP/CPC and RSISNCEP/CPC and RSIS

NARR Goal/ MotivationNARR Goal/ MotivationCreate longCreate long--term set of consistent climate data on a term set of consistent climate data on a regional scale for the North American domainregional scale for the North American domainUse GR2Use GR2 to drive the Regional Reanalysis (RR)to drive the Regional Reanalysis (RR)•• Boundary conditionsBoundary conditions•• Previously Previously QCQC’’eded observation data baseobservation data base

Improve upon Global Reanalysis 2 (Improve upon Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2GR2) due to:) due to:•• Use of a regional model (Use of a regional model (the Eta Modelthe Eta Model););

32km 32km vsvs 210km210km

•• Advances in data assimilationAdvances in data assimilation 19951995--2003:2003:Precipitation assimilationPrecipitation assimilationLandLand--surface model updatessurface model updatesDirect assimilation of radiancesDirect assimilation of radiances

ETA / NOAH LAND-SURFACE MODEL UPGRADES: 24 July 01

- assimilation of hourly precipitation-- hourly 4-km radar/gage analysis (Stage IV)

- cold season processes(Koren et al 1999)-- patchy snow cover-- frozen soil (new state variable)-- snow density (new state variable)

- bare soil evaporation refinements-- parameterize upper sfc crust cap on evap

- soil heat flux-- new soil thermal conductivity

(Peters-Lidard et al 1998)-- under snowpack (Lunardini, 1981)-- vegetation reduction of thermal cond.

(Peters-Lidard et al 1997)- surface characterization

-- maximum snow albedo database(Robinson & Kukla 1985)

-- dynamic thermal roughness lengthrefinements

- vegetation-- deeper rooting depth in forests-- canopy resistance refinements NOAH LSM tested in various land-model

intercomparison projects, e.g., GSWP, PILPS2a, 2c, 2d, 2e, Rhone, and (near-future) DMIP.

Noah LSM in N. American Regional Reanalysis: NARRSoil moisture availability (percent of saturation)

Top 1-meter of soil column

1993 (the summer flood) 1988 (the summer drought)

Average during 16-31 July (at 21 GMT)

The hallmark assimilation of high-resolution hourly precipitation analysesin the NARR is not feasible in the Global Reanalysis: owing to lack of timelyGlobal precip analysis of sufficient quality and retrospective availability.

Results: Precipitation Results: Precipitation

Precipitation observations used to Precipitation observations used to prescribe the latent heat profile in prescribe the latent heat profile in Eta model;Eta model;Model uses given latent heat Model uses given latent heat profile to simulate precipitationprofile to simulate precipitation;;Resulting precipitation pattern Resulting precipitation pattern looks very much like the analyzed looks very much like the analyzed precipitation pattern in both precipitation pattern in both summer and wintersummer and winter

1998 Precipitation Results

(A strong El Niño)

North American Regional North American Regional ReanalysisReanalysis

1979 2003

Execution:

4 concurrent streams

Jun 25 - Sep 29, 2003

IBM RISC

R-CDAS (R

Completed 24 years of RR production in just over 3 months, running 4 concurrent streams on the previous operational mainframe NCEP IBM ASP

NARR DistributionNARR Distribution

DVDNESDIS/ NCDC

NOMADSWEB Server

Reanalysis for Case StudiesReanalysis for Case Studies

KocinKocin and and UccelliniUccellini•• 19901990•• 2004a,b2004a,b

AMS 2004 Seattle AMS 2004 Seattle •• Sanders SymposiumSanders Symposium

1947 NYC blizzard1947 NYC blizzard

•• Phillips SymposiumPhillips SymposiumNov 1950 Appalachian Nov 1950 Appalachian stormstorm

Dr Louis Uccellini

Mr Paul Kocin

East Coast Snow Storm UpdateEast Coast Snow Storm UpdateKocin and Uccellini have updated the Kocin and Uccellini have updated the 1990 edition (19551990 edition (1955--1985)1985)Northeast Snowstorms (2004)Northeast Snowstorms (2004)

Volume 1: OverviewVolume 1: OverviewVolume 2: CasesVolume 2: Cases

•• 2003 NCEP GDAS applied to 74 2003 NCEP GDAS applied to 74 historical east coast storms, historical east coast storms,

•• 19471947--20032003•• GDAS T254L64 resolutionGDAS T254L64 resolution•• Acknowledge Mike BakerAcknowledge Mike Baker

December 1947 SnowstormDecember 1947 Snowstorm

> 30 inches

Record 24 hr Record 24 hr snowfall for NYCsnowfall for NYC((Broken 2/13/2006)Broken 2/13/2006)

Heavy snowfall not Heavy snowfall not predicted by Public predicted by Public Forecast Desk in Forecast Desk in NYCNYC

> 30 inches !

Surface

ObsObs 15Z 12/2515Z 12/25

2003 GFS Applied to the 1947 Storm2003 GFS Applied to the 1947 Storm

T254L64 SSI GDAS T254L64 SSI GDAS •• 03Z 15 Dec 1947 03Z 15 Dec 1947 climoclimo start from GR1 start from GR1 decdec’’ss•• Restricted upper air data; North Am. Restricted upper air data; North Am. sfcsfc datadata•• SST from Extended Reconstructed SST analysis SST from Extended Reconstructed SST analysis

(NCDC, 2003) available from 1854(NCDC, 2003) available from 1854--1997 1997 monthly on 2 degree gridmonthly on 2 degree grid

GFS GFS fcstfcst’’ss: 03Z & 15Z from Dec 24 on: 03Z & 15Z from Dec 24 on

mslp/6hr prcp/850 temp from 15Z 12/25/47

F06 F12

F24F18

Forecast snow totals over the 24 hr period of the storm

Note the credit on the DVDNote the credit on the DVD……

Climate Forecast System Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast Reanalysis and Reforecast

(CFSRR) (CFSRR) ReanalyisReanalyis•• 19791979--2008 2008 •• 2008 GDAS with GSI2008 GDAS with GSI•• Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (+ice)Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (+ice)•• Coupled Land Data Assimilation with Coupled Land Data Assimilation with

daily global precipitation analysis daily global precipitation analysis

ReforecastsReforecasts•• Calibrate upgrade to NCEP CFS Calibrate upgrade to NCEP CFS

(Climate Forecast System)(Climate Forecast System)

CFSRR at NCEP

GODAS3DVAR

Ocean ModelMOMv4

fully global1/2ox1/2o (1/4o in tropics)

40 levels

Atmospheric ModelGFS (2007)

T382 64 levels

Land Model Ice Mdl SISLDAS

GDASGSI

6hr

24hr

6hr

Ice Ext6hr

Climate Forecast System

Progress Progress GR1/GR2GR1/GR2 2007 GDAS 2007 GDAS (CFSRR)(CFSRR)

Vertical structureVertical structure sigmasigma sigmasigma--pressurepressure

Spectral resolutionSpectral resolution T62T62 T382T382

Horizontal resolutionHorizontal resolution 210 km210 km 35 km35 km

Vertical layersVertical layers 28 levels28 levels 64 levels64 levels

toptop 3 3 hPahPa .266 .266 hPahPa

Layers above 100 Layers above 100 hPahPa 77 2424

Layers below 850 Layers below 850 hPahPa 66 1313

Lowest layerLowest layer 40 m40 m 20 m20 m

3D3D--varvar SSISSI GSIGSI

NESDIS dataNESDIS data retrievalsretrievals radiancesradiances

Jack Woolen and others have spent years improving the data base of conventional observations--much more complete than before--errors better understood

Great deal of experience now with satellite bias corrections

Experienced with changes in observations in last 10 yearsKnowledge is being applied to new reanalysis

GFS produces much more skilled forecasts than CDAS--GFS has proven track record in forecasting hurricane tracks and in seasonal forecasts as CFS, indicating thatGFS produces much more realistic tropical atmosphere than CDAS in both analyses and forecasts

Vertical coordinate comparison across North AmericaVertical coordinate comparison across North America

New format and improved SBUV ozone dataCalibrated 3 ch. SSU radiance data (corrected for cell pressure leaks)

500 mb 5 Day Forecasts

40

50

60

70

80

90

1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

NH CFSRR T62SH CFSRR T62NH CFS R2CFS R2

Annual Avg 1982-2005

CFSRR R2

NH 74.6 72.3

SH 71.1 63.3

CFSRR T62L64 Atmospheric Only Reanalysis

5 Day fcst scores vs CFS fcsts from GR2

19791979--2006 CFSRR 2006 CFSRR pocket reanalysispocket reanalysis•• T62L64 GDAS onlyT62L64 GDAS only•• 00 f120 00 f120 fcstfcst’’ss

vsvs CFS T126L64CFS T126L64•• 19821982--20052005•• From GR2From GR2

CFSRRCFSRR

1979 2008

Execution: Jan-Dec 2008Reanalysis :4 concurrent streams

Reforecasts : April, Oct

IBM RISC

Execution: Jan-Oct 2009Reforecasts : other 10 months

Production - 2010

20092010

CFSRRCFSRRMore details on Friday More details on Friday

MorningMorning……

New Annual CDAS DVDNew Annual CDAS DVDWesley Wesley EbisuzakiEbisuzaki, NCEP/CPC, NCEP/CPC

We currently feel that a 5-6 year cycle for the global reanalysis project is reasonable given the rate of improvement in the data assimilation and modeling efforts. We plan to include a regional, high-resolution

reanalysis as part of the future on-going reanalysis effort.

Stephen Lord, Director, EMC

Thank you Thank you ……

NCEP reanalyses on the WebNCEP reanalyses on the WebGR1:GR1:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis/index.hthttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis/index.htmlml

GR2:GR2:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis2/index.hhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis2/index.htmltml

NARR:NARR:http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl/index.htmlhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl/index.html

CFSRR:CFSRR:http://http://cfs.ncep.noaa.govcfs.ncep.noaa.gov//

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis/index.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis2/index.html

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/rreanl/index.html

GFS—improved quality control

assimilation of satellite precipitation estimatesmuch more realistic moisture patterns better depiction of no-rain areas

cloud liquid watermomentum mixing in deep convectionRRTM long wavemountain blockingNOAH land modelsea-ice modelimproved snow, ice, orography, land-sea ozone and ozone physics

preamblepreamble

19701970’’s Data Assimilation Branchs Data Assimilation Branch•• Bill Bonner, ChiefBill Bonner, Chief•• Ron McPherson, section head of Analysis Ron McPherson, section head of Analysis

developmentdevelopment•• Tasked with Data Systems TestsTasked with Data Systems Tests

Funded by NASAFunded by NASASatellite impact tests Satellite impact tests

•• Develop and run FGGE Develop and run FGGE IIIaIIIa9L 2.5x2.5 global model, OI analysis9L 2.5x2.5 global model, OI analysisNot very good (6h Not very good (6h gdasgdas < 12 < 12 avnavn))

Preamble, cont.Preamble, cont.

Mid 80Mid 80’’ss……..Bonner, Director, NMCBonner, Director, NMC•• Expands, diversifies staffExpands, diversifies staff

Eugenia, Chief, Development DivisionEugenia, Chief, Development Division•• Kanamitsu,WoollenKanamitsu,Woollen, White, , White, SahaSaha, Iredell, Iredell

Start GDAS/MRF with GFDL physicsStart GDAS/MRF with GFDL physicsDERF , embryonic ensemble testsDERF , embryonic ensemble tests•• Dual Cyber 205Dual Cyber 205’’s s

By Fall 1993, a planBy Fall 1993, a plan……

Form partnershipsForm partnershipsexploit organizational strengthsexploit organizational strengths

NCEPNCEP•• EMC : execution of GDASEMC : execution of GDAS•• CPC : primary userCPC : primary user

NCAR : NCAR : •• Acquiring historical observationsAcquiring historical observations•• data archival and distribution data archival and distribution

MultiMulti--agency Multiagency Multi--nationalnationalNOAA NOAA –– OGPOGPNCARNCARCOLA COLA NASANASANCDCNCDCGFDLGFDLNOAA NOAA ––CDCCDCDOEDOENRL / FNOCNRL / FNOCUSAF / AFWAUSAF / AFWA

ECMWFECMWFUKMETUKMETJMAJMA

NCEP/NCAR R1 NCEP/NCAR R1 nonnon--consecutive single streamconsecutive single stream

1)1) 19851985--19891989Coincide with NASA DAO ReanalysisCoincide with NASA DAO Reanalysis

2)2) 19811981--19841984weekly SST began 1981weekly SST began 1981

3)3) 19901990--1995, CDAS in real time1995, CDAS in real timeCatchupCatchup to real time to real time –– enable CDAS to beginenable CDAS to begin

4)4) 19791979--19811981FGGE last of Beginning of TOVSFGGE last of Beginning of TOVS

5)5) 19731973--19781978Start of NMC ON29 format, VTPR eraStart of NMC ON29 format, VTPR era

6)6) 6/19576/1957--19721972NMC ON29 era, revised NMC ON29 era, revised raobraob dayday--night correctionnight correction

7)7) 19481948--5/19575/195703000300--1500 GMT 1500 GMT raobraob launches ended for Intlaunches ended for Int’’l Geophysical l Geophysical

Year Year

NCEP/NCARNCEP/NCARR1 R1 vsvs R2R2

SimilaritiesSimilarities……1) same spatial and temporal resolution as R1) same spatial and temporal resolution as R--11——

T62L28, 6 hour cycleT62L28, 6 hour cycle2) similar raw observational data 2) similar raw observational data

(some additional data after 1993);(some additional data after 1993);3) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data not used3) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data not used4) same NESDIS temperature retrievals;4) same NESDIS temperature retrievals;5) similar output variables and file formats 5) similar output variables and file formats

(GRIB and BUFR).(GRIB and BUFR).

Error Error fixesfixes from Rfrom R--1 to R1 to R--2 2 (after R(after R--1 system was frozen)1 system was frozen)

1) fixed Southern Hemisphere bogus data (PAOBS) problem 1) fixed Southern Hemisphere bogus data (PAOBS) problem (1979(1979––92),92),

2) fixed snow cover analysis error (19742) fixed snow cover analysis error (1974––94),94),3) fixed humidity diffusion to remove 3) fixed humidity diffusion to remove

““spectral snowspectral snow”” problem,problem,4) fixed oceanic 4) fixed oceanic albedoalbedo (entire period),(entire period),5) removed discontinuities in relative humidity/cloudiness 5) removed discontinuities in relative humidity/cloudiness

relationship table at 0relationship table at 0°° and 180and 180°° (entire period)(entire period)6) fixed snowmelt term (entire period).6) fixed snowmelt term (entire period).New system components:New system components:

1) simple rainfall assimilation over land surfaces for1) simple rainfall assimilation over land surfaces forimproved soil wetness,improved soil wetness,

2) smoothed 2) smoothed orographyorography3) treatment of snow.3) treatment of snow.

Model physics improvements:Model physics improvements:1) implementation of the Hong1) implementation of the Hong––Pan,1996, planetary Pan,1996, planetary

boundary layer that utilizes nonlocal diffusionboundary layer that utilizes nonlocal diffusion2) new shortwave radiation (Chou and Lee 1996);2) new shortwave radiation (Chou and Lee 1996);3) minor tuning of convective parameterization;3) minor tuning of convective parameterization;4) more realistic cloud4) more realistic cloud--top coolingtop cooling5) updated cloud5) updated cloud--tuning coefficients for stratus clouds tuning coefficients for stratus clouds 6) radiation on full Gaussian grid6) radiation on full Gaussian grid7) radiation run hourly 7) radiation run hourly vsvs 3h in R3h in R--1.1.

Fixed field improvements:Fixed field improvements:1) improved desert 1) improved desert albedoalbedo ((BrieglebBriegleb et al. 1996),et al. 1996),2) sea2) sea--ice and SST fields (AMIPice and SST fields (AMIP--II, provided by PCMDI)II, provided by PCMDI)3) new ozone climatology (3) new ozone climatology (RosenfieldRosenfield et al. 1987)et al. 1987)4) Northern Hemisphere snow cover analysis (interpolated 4) Northern Hemisphere snow cover analysis (interpolated

from weekly to daily values)from weekly to daily values)5) CO2 set to 350 5) CO2 set to 350 ppmvppmv (AMIP(AMIP--II specified constant).II specified constant).

Improvement to the diagnostics:Improvement to the diagnostics:1) better diagnostic fields of clouds1) better diagnostic fields of clouds2) fixed snow2) fixed snow––water budget diagnostics.water budget diagnostics.

NCEP/NCARNCEP/NCARGR2GR2

Acted as boundary conditions for NARRActed as boundary conditions for NARRProvided initial conditions for Climate Provided initial conditions for Climate forecast system forecast system ““hindcastshindcasts””

CFSRR CFSRR ––•• land surface treatment from NARR not GR2land surface treatment from NARR not GR2•• Newer SW and LW radiation codes (ERANewer SW and LW radiation codes (ERA--40)40)•• NCEP effort to unify Regional & Global NCEP effort to unify Regional & Global

parameterizations parameterizations

And to awardsAnd to awards……

Department of Department of Commerce Gold Commerce Gold

Medal 1997Medal 1997Dr. Eugenia Dr. Eugenia KalnayKalnay, Robert E. , Robert E. Kistler, John Kistler, John JanowiakJanowiak, Dr. Masao , Dr. Masao KanamitsuKanamitsu, Dr. , Dr. SuranjanaSuranjana SahaSaha, , Dr. Glenn White, Dr. Dr. Glenn White, Dr. MuthuvelMuthuvelChelliahChelliah, Dr. , Dr. KingtseKingtse Mo, Dr. Mo, Dr. Richard Reynolds, NWS, NCEPRichard Reynolds, NWS, NCEP

For creating a comprehensive For creating a comprehensive set of global atmospheric set of global atmospheric analyses to facilitate research analyses to facilitate research leading to better forecasts of leading to better forecasts of climate extremes that climate extremes that profoundly affect health, profoundly affect health,

commerce, and safety.commerce, and safety.American Meteorological Society

2000

Wesley Ebisuzaki, Yuejian Zhu, and Jack Woollen were

contractor employees, not civil servants. They received

commensurate recognition and awards from their employer.

Questions ???Questions ???Where are going to get the computer?Where are going to get the computer?

Where are we going to get the Where are we going to get the obsobs??•• NCDC not structured for bulk deliveryNCDC not structured for bulk delivery•• NCAR was only optionNCAR was only option•• NESDIS for TOVSNESDIS for TOVS

Will the Data Will the Data AssimAssim. system be robust?. system be robust?

How can we store/distribute the output?How can we store/distribute the output?•• Archive was a dirty wordArchive was a dirty word•• manual tape systemsmanual tape systems•• Tape Cartridge systems was newTape Cartridge systems was new

WhoWho’’s going to fund this?s going to fund this?

Innovative, pioneering effortInnovative, pioneering effort

GRIBGRIBBUFR BUFR GRADSGRADSRobotic tape systemsRobotic tape systemsComplex quality controlComplex quality controlBulk CDBulk CD--ROM distributionROM distribution

Entire system run in Unix – no more IBM JCL !

JCL UNIX

Numerical Forecast of 1947 Numerical Forecast of 1947 StormStorm

Shows limitations related toShows limitations related to•• Existing regional regional surface/upper air data Existing regional regional surface/upper air data

networknetwork•• Smoothed SST monthly analysisSmoothed SST monthly analysis

Nevertheless, numerical simulation locks Nevertheless, numerical simulation locks onto onto mesoscalemesoscale detail that localized heavy detail that localized heavy snowfall in NYC snowfall in NYC Predicts one foot of snow 12 hours in Predicts one foot of snow 12 hours in advance!advance!

Fred Sanders was 56 years ahead of his Fred Sanders was 56 years ahead of his time!time!

Nudging of deep layer soil wetness to climatology removedNudging of deep layer soil wetness to climatology removed

reanalysis at ncep: past, present and futurejra.kishou.go.jp/jra-25/3rac/program/v1-103.pdfnortheast...

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