o peration m anagement forecasting
DESCRIPTION
O peration M anagement Forecasting. Rachmat A. Anggara PMBS, BOPR 5301, Session 4. ??. Why we have to forecast??. Forecast Reduces Cost Under forecast the condition when capacity is below actual demand Over forecast the condition where capacity is above actual demand - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Rachmat A. AnggaraPMBS, BOPR 5301, Session 4
Operation Management
Forecasting
Why we have to forecast??
??
Forecast Reduces CostUnder forecast the condition when capacity is
below actual demandOver forecast the condition where capacity is
above actual demand
Increase Competitive advantageEconomic ForecastTechnological forecastsDemand forecasts
FORECASTING
Process of predicting a future eventForecasting Time Horizons
Short-range ForecastMedium-range ForecastLong-range Forecast
Forecasting Approach
Intuitive Decision Making
movie
Forecasting Approach
Qualitative MethodsJury of executive
opinionSales force composite
Quantitative Method
Consumer Market Survey
Delphi method
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
3. Exponential smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression
Time-Series Models
Associative Model
Qualitative Method
Used when situation is vague and little data exist New products New technology
Involves intuition, experience e.g., forecasting sales on Internet
Quantitative Method
Used when situation is vague and little data exist New products New technology
Involves intuition, experience e.g., forecasting sales on Internet
Quantitative Method
1. TIME SERIES
Set of evenly spaced numerical data Obtained by observing response
variable at regular time periods Forecast based only on past values
Assumes that factors influencing past and present will continue influence in future
Quantitative Method
TIME SERIES COMPONENT
Trend
Seasonal
Cyclical
Random
Component of DemandD
eman
d fo
r pr
oduc
t or
ser
vice
| | | |1 2 3 4
Year
Average demand over four years
Seasonal peaks
Trend component
Actual demand
Random variation
Steps of ForecastingDetermine the use of
the forecast
Select the items to be forecasted
Determine the time horizon of the
forecast
Select the forecasting model(s)
Gather the data
Make the forecast
Validate and implement results
1. Moving Average
Moving average =∑ demand in previous n periods
n
January 10February 12March 13April 16May 19June 23July 26
Actual 3-MonthMonth Shed Sales Moving Average
(12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
(13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16(16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
101213
(10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
TIME SERIES METHOD
2. Weighted Moving Average
January 10February 12March 13April 16May 19June 23July 26
Actual 3-Month WeightedMonth Shed Sales Moving Average
[(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 141/3
[(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17[(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 201/2
101213
[(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 121/6
Weights Applied Period3 Last month2 Two months ago1 Three months ago
TIME SERIES METHOD
Graph of Moving Averages
30 –
25 –
20 –
15 –
10 –
5 –
Sa
les
de
man
d
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Actual sales
Moving average
Weighted moving average
TIME SERIES METHOD
3. Exponential SmoothingFt = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 - Ft – 1)
where Ft = new forecast At – 1 = previous Actual Demand
Ft – 1 = previous forecasta = smoothing (or weighting) constant
(0 a 1)
Example – Ford Mustangs :Predicted demand = 142Actual demand = 153Smoothing constant a = .20Next Period Forecast = …
TIME SERIES METHOD
Measuring Forecast ErrorRounded Absolute (Error)2 Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation PercentageTonnage with for Error
Quarter Unloaded a = .10 a = .10
1 180 175 5 52=25 2.78%2 168 176 8 64 4.76%3 159 175 16 256 10.06%4 175 173 2 4 1.14%5 190 173 17 289 8.95%6 205 175 30 900 14.63%7 180 178 2 4 1.11%8 182 178 4 16 2.20%
84 1,558 45.63%MAD =
∑ |actual - forecast|
n
MSE =∑ (forecast errors)2
nMAPE =
100 ∑ |actuali - forecasti|/actuali
n
n
i = 1
TIME SERIES METHOD
Calculate MAPE, α = 0.50Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast DeviationTonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded a = .10 a = .10 a = .50 a = .50
1 180 175 5 175 52 168 176 8 178 103 159 175 16 173 144 175 173 2 166 95 190 173 17 170 206 205 175 30 180 257 180 178 2 193 138 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
TIME SERIES METHOD
4. Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment
When a trend is present, exponential smoothing must be modified
Forecast including (FITt) = trend
exponentially exponentiallysmoothed (Ft) + (Tt) smoothedforecast trend
Ft = a(At - 1) + (1 - a)(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
Step 1: Compute Ft
Step 2: Compute Tt
Step 3: Calculate the forecast FITt = Ft + Tt
TIME SERIES METHOD
Gambar perbandingan (xls)
ExponentialActual Smoothing
Tonnage Ft Tt with TrendQuarter Unloaded a = 0.10 β = .20 Adjustment
1 180 175 2 1772 168 177 2 179.43 159 178 2 180.14 175 178 1 179.45 190 179 1 180.36 205 181 2 182.77 180 185 2 186.98 182 186 2 188.1
TIME SERIES METHOD
Graphics
TIME SERIES METHOD
Fitting a trend line to historical data points to project into the medium-to-long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least squares technique
y = a + bx^
where y = computed value of the variable to be predicted (dependent variable)a = y-axis interceptb = slope of the regression linex = the independent variable
^
5. Trend Projections
TIME SERIES METHOD
Least Squares Method
Time period
Va
lue
s o
f D
ep
end
en
t V
ari
able
Figure 4.4
Deviation1
Deviation5
Deviation7
Deviation2
Deviation6
Deviation4
Deviation3
Actual observation (y value)
Trend line, y = a + bx^
TIME SERIES METHOD
Least Squares MethodEquations to calculate the regression variables
b =Sxy - nxy
Sx2 - nx2
y = a + bx^
a = y - bx
TIME SERIES METHOD
Least Squares Example
b = = = 10.54∑xy - nxy
∑x2 - nx2
3,063 - (7)(4)(98.86)
140 - (7)(42)a = y - bx = 98.86 - 10.54(4) = 56.70
Time Electrical Power Year Period (x) Demand x2 xy
1999 1 74 1 742000 2 79 4 1582001 3 80 9 2402002 4 90 16 3602003 5 105 25 5252004 6 142 36 8522005 7 122 49 854
∑x = 28 ∑y = 692 ∑x2 = 140 ∑xy = 3,063x = 4 y = 98.86
TIME SERIES METHOD
Least Squares Example
| | | | | | | | |1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
160 –150 –140 –130 –120 –110 –100 –90 –80 –70 –60 –50 –
Year
Po
wer
dem
and
Trend line,y = 56.70 + 10.54x^
TIME SERIES METHOD
Associative Forecasting• Forecasting an outcome based on
predictor variables.• Methods:
1. Regression Analysis
2. Correlation Coefficients
3. Standard Error of the Estimate.
4. Multiple Regression Analysis.
ASSOCIATIVE METHOD
Regression Analysis
Sales Local Payroll($000,000), y ($000,000,000), x
2.0 13.0 32.5 42.0 22.0 13.5 7
y = a + bx^
where y = computed value of the variable to be predicted (dependent variable)a = y-axis interceptb = slope of the regression linex = the independent variable though to predict the value of the dependent variable
^
Example:
ASSOCIATIVE METHOD
4.0 –
3.0 –
2.0 –
1.0 –
| | | | | | |0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sal
es
Area payroll
y = 1.75 + .25x^
Sales = 1.75 + .25(payroll)
Sales = 1.75 + .25(6)Sales = $325,000
3.25
If payroll next year is estimated to be $600
million, then:
ASSOCIATIVE METHOD
Correlation Coefficient
r = nSxy - SxSy
[nSx2 - (Sx)2][nSy2 - (Sy)2]
How strong is the linear relationship between the variables?
Correlation does not necessarily imply causality!
Coefficient of correlation, r, measures degree of association Values range from -1 to +1
ASSOCIATIVE METHOD
Multiple RegressionIf more than one independent variable is to be
used in the model, linear regression can be extended to multiple regression to accommodate
several independent variables
y = a + b1x1 + b2x2 …^
Computationally, this is quite complex and generally done on the computer
ASSOCIATIVE METHOD
Questions?