nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed ssi data
DESCRIPTION
Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data T. Egorova * , E. Rozanov *,** , N. Hochmuth *** , A.I. Shapiro * , A.V. Shapiro *,** , and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data
T. Egorova*, E. Rozanov*,**, N. Hochmuth***, A.I. Shapiro*, A.V. Shapiro*,**, and W. Schmutz*
*PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland
SOTERIA, 30 May–01 June 2011
Outline
Project goals and components
Model description and validation
Demonstration of LyraViewer: visualization
Goals of the project
• Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere
• Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization
Nowcast of chemical composition in the middle atmosphere
WP5 D5.3:Reconstructed SSI data
for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit
and L. E. A. Viera
WP5 D5.3:Reconstructed SSI data
for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit
and L. E. A. Viera
Nowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged species
with free running CICM SOCOLi
Nowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged species
with free running CICM SOCOLi
WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available
online every 6 hours
WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available
online every 6 hours
Output validation to improve the model and
experimental set-up
Output validation to improve the model and
experimental set-up
WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data
from D5.3
WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data
from D5.3
WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the
middle atmospherechemical composition
WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the
middle atmospherechemical composition
Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010
CTM:Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends
Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001Egorova et al. 2001, 2003
t = 15 min for dynamicst = 2 h for radiation horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°) vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa
MEZON
MA-ECHAM4
GCM:Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4
Manzini and McFarlane, 1998t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry 41 chemical species Electrons, 17 negative ions, 31 positive ions Reactions: 118 gas-phase,
33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4,
N2O, CFCs
Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi
Model validation:
1. HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere)
Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O3 : MIPAS observations
2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations
1. HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere)
Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O3 : MIPAS observations
2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations
Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman-Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman- line line from the 2-month mean. from the 2-month mean.
Compiled by J. Lean
Electron density in the tropics
Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cmTropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3-3) )
Solar UV
SPE
GCR
IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model
km
SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004
Case study with CICM SOCOLi: Increase SSI by ~5%
The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets
Comparison with observations:Hydroxyl (tropical mean)
June, July and August 2004
75 km
CCM SOCOLi output
Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density
for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data
Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density
for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data
Charged components:Charged components:
OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44
++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22
++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++ N∙N∙ 22, O, O22
++ H∙H∙ 22O, HO, H33OO++ OH, NO∙OH, NO∙ ++ H∙H∙ 22O, NOO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, NO, NO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, ,
NONO++ N∙N∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O CO∙O CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O N∙O N∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)44, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)55, ,
HH++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)66, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)77, H, H33OO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H33OO++ N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22
e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, NOO, NO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, COO, CO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22OO
Neutral components:Neutral components:
OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N22OO55, , HNOHNO33,HONO,HONO33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H22OO22, H, HOCl, Cl, H, HOCl, Cl22, Cl, Cl22OO22, HCl , , HCl ,
Br, CHBr, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH33OO22H, HH, H22O, CFC-11, CFC-12, NO, CFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF33
Charged components:Charged components:
OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44
++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22
++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++ N∙N∙ 22, O, O22
++ H∙H∙ 22O, HO, H33OO++ OH, NO∙OH, NO∙ ++ H∙H∙ 22O, NOO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, NO, NO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, ,
NONO++ N∙N∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O CO∙O CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O N∙O N∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)44, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)55, ,
HH++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)66, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)77, H, H33OO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H33OO++ N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22
e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, NOO, NO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, COO, CO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22OO
Neutral components:Neutral components:
OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N22OO55, , HNOHNO33,HONO,HONO33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H22OO22, H, HOCl, Cl, H, HOCl, Cl22, Cl, Cl22OO22, HCl , , HCl ,
Br, CHBr, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH33OO22H, HH, H22O, CFC-11, CFC-12, NO, CFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF33
4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time
4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time
Output parameters:
Neutral: O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O
Charged: e-, e*, total p+
Thermo-dyn.: T, den, GPH
Homepage:
http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/
Snap-shot of visualization package
Snap-shot of visualization package
Conclusions and outlook • Model has been developed and validated, it reasonably reproduces the
resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of SSI and particles
• Visualization software has been developed
• Online publishing of chemical composition of the middle atmosphere from nowcasting CCM with input from reconstrustions of SSI (D6.5)
• Online operational nowcast of the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere (D5.4)
• Some things left to polish: homepage, visualization package
PMOD/WRC, Davos
End of the presentation…Thank you!!!
What has been done?
1)Development CCM with ion chemistry: CICM SOCOLi
2)Model validation has been performed (e.g. HEPPA)
3)Visualization software has been developed
4)CICM SOCOLi working with reconstructed SSI from WP5 D5.3
5)On-line publishing of the model data (D5.3)
6)On-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere parameters