november!2,2016! media!contact:!prof.!spencer!kimball! … · 2016-11-02 · undecided 23 3.0 3.0...

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November 2, 2016 Media Contact: Prof. Spencer Kimball Emerson College Polling Advisor [email protected] 617-‐824-‐8737

Emerson College Polls: Colorado Flips to Clinton While Trump Takes Back Arizona and Puts Georgia and Missouri Out of Reach.

Blunt/Kander tied in MO Senate Race. BOSTON, MA – Emerson College polls released today show Donald Trump holding a substantial lead over Hillary Clinton in two of the four states polled (Georgia and Missouri) while he and Clinton have both flipped a state where they previously trailed in Arizona and Colorado. In Georgia, Trump is winning 51% to 42%, and in Missouri he has opened up a 15-‐point advantage (52% to 37%), almost doubling the 8-‐point margin he had in a mid-‐October Emerson poll. Trump has also flipped Arizona to his column. Clinton led 44% to 42% in the first week of October but now trails 47% to 43%. Georgia and Arizona are two of the traditionally Red states that Democrats were hoping to turn Blue this year. In just about the only good news for Clinton in this batch of polls, she has turned the tables in Colorado. She previously trailed the GOP businessman by 4 points (42% to 38%) but now has a 3-‐point edge, 44% to 41%.

Presidential Race – November 2 Polls

Arizona Colorado Georgia Missouri

Hillary Clinton 43% 44% 42% 37%

Donald Trump 47% 41% 51% 52%

Gary Johnson 2% 8% 2% 5%

Jill Stein 2% 4% 3% 2%

Unsure 5% 3% 2% 4%

Sample n=700 n=750 n=650 n=650

MOE 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8% In U.S. Senate races, Democrat Michael Bennet, the senior senator for Colorado, is outperforming Clinton and currently has a 5-‐point advantage over Darryl Glenn. A very tight race in Missouri finds GOP Senator Roy Blunt tied with Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander at 45% apiece. The two men have similar favorability numbers, net -‐5 for Blunt and net -‐6 for Kander.

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In the other two Senate races polled, the GOP incumbent has seen a substantial lead melt away in recent weeks, though not enough to be overtaken. The 16-‐point margin that Arizona Senator John McCain held over Ann Kirkpatrick in September has dwindled to 6 points in the current poll (46% to 40%). Similarly, Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson’s 16-‐point advantage over Democrat Jim Barksdale shrank to 8 points (48% to 40%). However, with just one week to Election Day, both seats will very likely remain in the Republican column.

Senate Races

Arizona John McCain(R): 46% Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 40% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 9% McCain: 48% Fav/44% Unfav (+4) Kirkpatrick: 32% Fav/51% Unfav (-‐19)

Colorado Michael Bennet (D): 47% Darryl Glenn (R): 42% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 5% Bennet: 47% Fav/38% Unfav (+9) Glenn: 41% Fav/35% Unfav (+6)

Georgia Johnny Isakson (R): 48% Jim Barksdale (D): 40% Someone else: 5% Undecided: 7% Isakson: 47% Fav/ 37% Unfav (+10) Barksdale: 26% Fav/33% Unfav (-‐7)

Missouri Roy Blunt (R): 45% Kander(D): 45% Someone else: 6% Undecided: 4% Blunt: 41% Fav/46% Unfav (-‐5) Kander: 38% Fav/44% Unfav (-‐6)

At the top of the GOP ticket, Trump is drawing strength from Independents. He is trouncing Clinton with this group: by 38 points in Missouri, 22 in Georgia, and 20 in Arizona. She has a slight 3-‐point edge in Colorado. Trump is also doing well with men, while largely negating the gender advantage with women that Clinton enjoys in many states. For example, in Missouri and Georgia, men prefer Trump to Clinton by 16 and 24 points, respectively. However, he also garners 52% of the female vote in Missouri compared to Clinton’s 37%, and he only trails her by 6 points, 50% to 44% among women in Georgia. CALLER ID The Emerson College Missouri and Colorado polls were conducted October 28-‐31, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The Arizona and Georgia polls were conducted October 29-‐31. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: Missouri n=650, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/-‐ 3.8 percentage points; Colorado n=750 with an MOE of +/-‐ 3.5 percentage points; Arizona n=700 with an MOE of +/-‐ 3.6 percentage points; Georgia n=650, with an MOE of +/-‐ 3.8 percentage points. The Missouri data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, and party affiliation. Colorado data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliation. Arizona data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party, and race. Georgia data: by 2012 election results, age, gender, party and district. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age and party

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breakdowns carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only. The full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.

Frequency Tables Begin on Following Page

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Arizona Frequency Table

likely voter

Frequency Percent Valid

Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid already voted,

either by absentee ballot or early voting

210 30.0 30.0 30.0

plan to vote before Election Day, either by absentee or early voting

108 15.5 15.5 45.5

plan to vote on Election Day itself 382 54.5 54.5 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

party


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Democrat 196 28.0 28.0 28.0

Republican 238 34.0 34.0 62.0 Independent /other 266 38.0 38.0 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

gender


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid male 350 50.0 50.0 50.0

female 350 50.0 50.0 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

2012 prez


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Barack Obama 312 44.5 44.5 44.5

Mitt Romney 375 53.5 53.5 98.0 someone else 14 2.0 2.0 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

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primary


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Bernie Sanders 112 16.0 16.0 16.0

Hillary Clinton 178 25.5 25.5 41.5 Ted Cruz 104 14.8 14.8 56.3 Donald Trump 181 25.9 25.9 82.2 John Kasich 25 3.6 3.6 85.8 Marco Rubio 41 5.9 5.9 91.7 Other 54 7.7 7.7 99.4 not a registered voter 4 .6 .6 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

Hillary Clinton Favorable


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Favorable 232 33.1 33.1 33.1

Unfavorable 430 61.5 61.5 94.6 Undecided 36 5.2 5.2 99.8 Never heard of this public figure 2 .2 .2 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

Donald Trump Favorable


Percent Cumulative


Unfavorable 337 48.2 48.2 95.9 Undecided 26 3.7 3.7 99.6 If you have never heard of this public figure

3 .4 .4 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

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Kirkpatrick


Percent Cumulative



13 1.8 1.8 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

McCain


Percent Cumulative



.1 .1 100.0

Total 700 100.0 100.0

Presidential Election Ballot


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Hillary Clinton 304 43.4 43.4 43.4

Donald trump 329 47.0 47.0 90.4 Gary Johnson 16 2.3 2.3 92.7 Jill Stein 16 2.4 2.4 95.1 Unsure 34 4.9 4.9 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

Expectation Presdential Winner


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Hillary Clinton 333 47.6 47.6 47.6

Donald Trump 302 43.1 43.1 90.7 Gary Johnson 6 .9 .9 91.6 Jill Stein 30 4.3 4.3 95.9 Unsure 28 4.1 4.1 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

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Senate Ballot Test


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Kirkpatrick 278 39.7 39.7 39.7

McCain 322 46.0 46.0 85.7 Someone Else 38 5.5 5.5 91.2 Undecided 61 8.8 8.8 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

Age


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 18-34 189 27.0 27.0 27.0

35-54 280 40.0 40.0 67.0 55-74 175 25.0 25.0 92.0 75+ 56 8.0 8.0 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

Ethnicity


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid White 440 62.8 62.8 62.8

Black 45 6.4 6.4 69.2 American Indian /Alaska Native

8 1.1 1.1 70.3

Asian 13 1.8 1.8 72.1 Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islander

13 1.9 1.9 74.0

Hispanic /Latino 146 20.8 20.8 94.8 Other 30 4.3 4.3 99.1 unsure 6 .9 .9 100.0 Total 700 100.0 100.0

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Colorado Frequency Table

Voting Intention


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Already

Voted 466 62.2 62.2 62.2

Voting Early 255 33.9 33.9 96.1 Election Day 29 3.9 3.9 100.0

Total 750 100.0 100.0

Party


Percent Cumulative


Republican 233 31.0 31.0 65.0 Independent 262 35.0 35.0 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

Gender


Percent Cumulative


female 375 50.0 50.0 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

2012 Ballot


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Barack

Obama 386 51.5 51.5 51.5

Mitt Romney 346 46.1 46.1 97.6

Someone else 18 2.4 2.4 100.0

Total 750 100.0 100.0

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2016 primary


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Sanders 161 21.4 21.4 21.4

Clinton 180 24.0 24.0 45.5 Cruz 50 6.7 6.7 52.1 Trump 175 23.4 23.4 75.5 Kasich 33 4.3 4.3 79.9 Rubio 32 4.3 4.3 84.2 Other 98 13.0 13.0 97.2 No vote 21 2.8 2.8 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

Clinton Name Rec


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid favorable 293 39.1 39.1 39.1

unfavorable 428 57.1 57.1 96.2 undecided 23 3.0 3.0 99.2 never heard of 6 .8 .8 100.0

Total 750 100.0 100.0

Trump Name Rec


Percent Cumulative


unfavorable 435 57.9 57.9 94.7 undecided 29 3.9 3.9 98.6 never heard of 10 1.4 1.4 100.0

Total 750 100.0 100.0

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Bennet


Percent Cumulative



Total 750 100.0 100.0

Glenn


Percent Cumulative



Total 750 100.0 100.0

Presidential Ballot


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Hillary

Clinton 326 43.5 43.5 43.5

Donald Trump 309 41.2 41.2 84.7

Gary Johnson 59 7.8 7.8 92.5

Jill Stein 32 4.2 4.2 96.8 Unsure 24 3.2 3.2 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

Presidential Expectation


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Trump 313 41.8 41.8 41.8

Clinton 375 50.0 50.0 91.8 Johnson 14 1.8 1.8 93.6 Stein 3 .4 .4 94.0 Unsure 45 6.0 6.0 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

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Senate Ballot


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Bennet 353 47.1 47.1 47.1

Glenn 318 42.4 42.4 89.5 Someone Else 44 5.9 5.9 95.4

Undecided 35 4.6 4.6 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

Age


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 18-34 172 23.0 23.0 23.0

35-54 278 37.0 37.0 60.0 55-74 225 30.0 30.0 90.0 75+ 75 10.0 10.0 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

Race


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid white 578 77.0 77.0 77.0

black 22 3.0 3.0 80.0 American Indian 4 .5 .5 80.5

Hawaiian 15 2.0 2.0 82.5 Hispanic 112 15.0 15.0 97.5 2+/Other 19 2.5 2.5 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

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Education


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid <HS 55 7.3 7.4 7.4

HS 84 11.2 11.3 18.7 Some College 121 16.2 16.3 35.0

Associate 72 9.6 9.6 44.6 Bachelor 195 26.0 26.1 70.7 Post Grad 218 29.1 29.3 100.0 Total 745 99.3 100.0

Missing System 5 .7 Total 750 100.0

Phone Status


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Cell Phone

Only 91 12.2 12.3 12.3

Land Line only 80 10.6 10.7 23.0

both 573 76.3 77.0 100.0 Total 744 99.2 100.0


USC District


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 1.00 105 14.0 14.0 14.0

2.00 105 14.0 14.0 28.1 3.00 113 15.1 15.1 43.2 4.00 99 13.2 13.2 56.4 5.00 143 19.1 19.1 75.5 6.00 78 10.4 10.4 85.9 7.00 106 14.1 14.1 100.0 Total 750 100.0 100.0

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Missouri Frequency Table

Voting Intention


Percent Cumulative


Voted 142 21.9 21.9 21.9

Voting Early 151 23.3 23.3 45.2 Election Day 356 54.8 54.8 100.0

Total 650 100.0 100.0

Party


Percent Cumulative



Gender


Percent Cumulative


female 361 55.5 55.5 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

2012 Ballot


Percent Cumulative


Obama 289 44.4 44.4 44.4

Mitt Romney 350 53.8 53.8 98.2

Someone else 12 1.8 1.8 100.0

Total 650 100.0 100.0

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2016 primary


Percent Cumulative


Clinton 158 24.3 24.3 41.6 Cruz 91 14.0 14.0 55.6 Trump 176 27.0 27.0 82.6 Kasich 42 6.4 6.4 89.0 Rubio 22 3.5 3.5 92.5 Other 47 7.2 7.2 99.7 No vote 2 .3 .3 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Clinton Name Rec


Percent Cumulative



Total 650 100.0 100.0

Trump Name Rec


Percent Cumulative


unfavorable 334 51.4 51.4 97.6 undecided 14 2.2 2.2 99.9 never heard of 1 .1 .1 100.0

Total 650 100.0 100.0

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Blunt


Percent Cumulative



Total 650 100.0 100.0

Kander


Percent Cumulative



Total 650 100.0 100.0

Presidential Ballot


Percent Cumulative


Clinton 239 36.8 36.8 36.8

Donald Trump 339 52.2 52.2 89.0

Gary Johnson 31 4.8 4.8 93.8




Percent Cumulative


Clinton 263 40.5 40.5 91.9 Johnson 12 1.8 1.8 93.7 Stein 1 .1 .1 93.8 Unsure 40 6.2 6.2 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

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Senate Ballot


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Kander 294 45.2 45.2 45.2

Blunt 294 45.2 45.2 90.4 Someone Else 36 5.5 5.5 95.9

Undecided 27 4.1 4.1 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Age


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 18-34 169 26.0 26.0 26.0

35-54 247 38.0 38.0 64.0 55-74 182 28.0 28.0 92.0 75+ 52 8.0 8.0 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Race


Percent Cumulative


black 100 15.4 15.4 89.1 American Indian 13 2.0 2.0 91.0

Asian 25 3.8 3.8 94.8 Hispanic 12 1.8 1.8 96.6 2+/Other 10 1.5 1.5 98.1 refused 12 1.9 1.9 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Phone Status


Percent Cumulative


Only 67 10.3 10.4 10.4

Land Line only 64 9.8 9.8 20.2

both 516 79.3 79.8 100.0 Total 647 99.5 100.0


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USC District


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 1.00 91 13.9 13.9 13.9

2.00 107 16.4 16.4 30.4 3.00 101 15.5 15.5 45.9 4.00 71 10.9 10.9 56.8 5.00 70 10.8 10.8 67.6 6.00 56 8.6 8.6 76.2 7.00 83 12.7 12.7 88.9 8.00 72 11.1 11.1 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Georgia Frequency Table

Voting Intention


Percent Cumulative


Voted 301 46.3 46.3 46.3

Plan to Vote early 218 33.6 33.6 79.9

Election Day 131 20.1 20.1 100.0

Total 650 100.0 100.0

Party


Percent Cumulative



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Gender


Percent Cumulative


female 338 52.0 52.0 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

2012 Ballot


Percent Cumulative


Obama 296 45.5 45.5 45.5

Mitt Romney 346 53.3 53.3 98.8

Did not vote 8 1.2 1.2 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

2016 primary


Percent Cumulative


Clinton 236 36.4 36.4 45.6 Cruz 68 10.5 10.5 56.2 Trump 199 30.6 30.6 86.7 Kasich 19 2.9 2.9 89.7 Rubio 40 6.2 6.2 95.9 Other 25 3.8 3.8 99.7 No vote 2 .3 .3 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Clinton Name Rec


Percent Cumulative


unfavorable 378 58.2 58.2 99.1 undecided 5 .8 .8 100.0 never heard of .0 .0 100.0

Total 650 100.0 100.0

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Trump Name Rec


Percent Cumulative


unfavorable 350 53.9 53.9 97.2 undecided 18 2.8 2.8 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Barksdale


Percent Cumulative



Total 650 100.0 100.0

Isakson


Percent Cumulative



Total 650 100.0 100.0

Presidential Ballot


Percent Cumulative


Clinton 275 42.4 42.4 42.4

Donald Trump 331 50.9 50.9 93.3

Gary Johnson 10 1.5 1.5 94.8


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Percent Cumulative


Clinton 275 42.3 42.3 90.7 Johnson 1 .2 .2 90.8 Stein 12 1.8 1.8 92.6 Unsure 48 7.4 7.4 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Age


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 18-34 156 24.0 24.0 24.0

35-54 241 37.0 37.0 61.0 55-74 208 32.0 32.0 93.0 75+ 46 7.0 7.0 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Race


Percent Cumulative


black 179 27.5 27.5 85.7 American Indian 36 5.6 5.6 91.2

Asian 8 1.2 1.2 92.4 Hawaiian 1 .1 .1 92.5 Hispanic 7 1.1 1.1 93.6 2+/Other 30 4.6 4.6 98.3 refused 11 1.7 1.7 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

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Education


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid <HS 30 4.6 4.6 4.6

HS 74 11.4 11.5 16.1 Some College 131 20.2 20.3 36.4

Associate 66 10.1 10.1 46.5 Bachelor 156 24.0 24.1 70.7 Post Grad 190 29.2 29.3 100.0 Total 647 99.6 100.0


Phone Status


Percent Cumulative


Only 89 13.7 14.2 14.2

Land Line only 53 8.1 8.4 22.5

both 489 75.3 77.5 100.0 Total 631 97.1 100.0

Missing System 19 2.9 Total 650 100.0

USC District


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid 1.00 24 3.7 3.7 3.7

2.00 67 10.4 10.4 14.0 3.00 50 7.7 7.7 21.8 4.00 35 5.5 5.5 27.2 5.00 33 5.1 5.1 32.4 6.00 53 8.1 8.1 40.5 7.00 51 7.8 7.8 48.3 8.00 39 6.0 6.0 54.3 9.00 35 5.3 5.3 59.7 10.00 55 8.5 8.5 68.2 11.00 38 5.8 5.8 74.0 12.00 56 8.6 8.6 82.6 13.00 58 8.8 8.8 91.4

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14.00 56 8.6 8.6 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Region


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid South 186 28.6 28.6 28.6

North 232 35.7 35.7 64.3 Central 232 35.7 35.7 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

Senate


Percent Cumulative

Percent Valid Barksdale 261 40.1 40.1 40.1

Isakson 315 48.4 48.4 88.6 Someone Else 29 4.5 4.5 93.0

Undecided 45 7.0 7.0 100.0 Total 650 100.0 100.0

november!2,2016! media!contact:!prof.!spencer!kimball! … · 2016-11-02 · undecided 23 3.0 3.0...

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