northwest power and conservation council the role of energy efficiency in could (and should) play in...
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
The Role of Energy Efficiency The Role of Energy Efficiency in Could (and Should) Play in Montana’s in Could (and Should) Play in Montana’s FutureFuture
Insights from the 5Insights from the 5thth Northwest Northwest Power Power and Conservation Planand Conservation Plan
Tom EckmanTom Eckman
Manager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation Council
Presented October 18, 2005Presented October 18, 2005
Montana Energy Futures ConferenceMontana Energy Futures Conference
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What You’re About To HearWhat You’re About To Hear
Energy Efficiency in the Region’s Current Energy Efficiency in the Region’s Current
Resource MixResource Mix
Regional Efficiency GoalsRegional Efficiency Goals
– What These Might Mean for MontanaWhat These Might Mean for Montana
What’s Behind the GoalsWhat’s Behind the Goals
The Challenges AheadThe Challenges Ahead
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Energy Efficiency PNW Energy Efficiency AchievementsAchievements1978 - 20041978 - 2004
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
BPA and Utility Programs Alliance ProgramsState Codes Federal Standards
Since 1978 Utility & BPA Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Nearly 3000 aMW of Produced Nearly 3000 aMW of Savings.Savings.
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
So What’s 3000 aMW?So What’s 3000 aMW?
It was enough electricity to serve the It was enough electricity to serve the entireentire state of Montana, state of Montana, plusplus 60% of Idaho in 2004 60% of Idaho in 2004
- OR –- OR –
It was enough electricity to serve the It was enough electricity to serve the entireentire state of Idaho state of Idaho plusplus Western Montana in 2004 Western Montana in 2004
It Saved the Region’s Consumers Nearly It Saved the Region’s Consumers Nearly $1.25 billion$1.25 billion in 2004 in 2004
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Energy Efficiency Resources Energy Efficiency Resources Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Significantly Reduced Projected PNW
Electricity SalesElectricity Sales
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Medium High ForecastMedium LowMedium High Minus ConservationActual
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth
Between 1980 - 2003Between 1980 - 2003
61%
39%
Generation Conservation
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Have Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Have Helped Balance Loads & ResourcesHelped Balance Loads & Resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Conse
rvati
on A
cquis
itio
ns
(aM
W)
Response to West Coast
Energy CrisisResponse to NW
Recession
Response to “Restructuring
Discussions”
Creating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency IndustryCreating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency Industry
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A BARGAIN!A BARGAIN!
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
May
-96
Nov-9
6
May
-97
Nov-9
7
May
-98
Nov-9
8
May
-99
Nov-9
9
May
-00
Nov-0
0
May
-01
Nov-0
1
May
-02
Nov-0
2
May
-03
Nov-0
3
May
-04
Nov-0
4
May
-05
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
city
Pri
ce (
20
00
$/M
WH
)
Levelized Cost of EfficiencyAcquisitionsWholesale Market Price
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
So Much for the Past, So Much for the Past, What’s AheadWhat’s Ahead
55thth Plan Relies on Conservation and Renewable Plan Relies on Conservation and Renewable
Resources to of Meet Load GrowthResources to of Meet Load Growth**
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Year
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (
MW
or
aM
W)
Conservation (aMW) Wind (MW) DR (MW)SCGTurbine (MW) CCGTurbine (MW) Coal (ICG) (MW)
**Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedulechange resource development schedule
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cost-Effective and Achievable Cost-Effective and Achievable Conservation Should Meet Over 45% of Conservation Should Meet Over 45% of
PNW Load Growth from 2005-2025*PNW Load Growth from 2005-2025*
0
5 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
3 0 0 0
C o s t - E ff e c t iv e P o t e n t ia l( a M W in 2 0 2 5 )
A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r - 8 0 a M W
N o n - D S I I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r - 3 5 0 a M W
C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r N o n - B u i l d i n g M e a s u r e s - 4 2 0 a M W
H V A C , E n v e l o p e & R e f r i g e r a t i o n - 3 7 5 a M W
N e w C o m m e r c i a l B u i l d i n g L i g h t i n g - 2 2 0 a M W
E x i s t i n g C o m m e r c i a l B u i l d i n g s L i g h t i n g - 1 3 0 a M W
R e s i d e n t i a l S p a c e C o n d i t i o n i n g - 2 4 0 a M W
R e s i d e n t i a l L i g h t i n g - 5 3 0 a M W
R e s i d e n t i a l W a t e r H e a t i n g - 3 2 5 a M W
R e s i d e n t i a l A p p l i a n c e s - 1 4 0 a M W
*Medium Load Forecast *Medium Load Forecast Loads & Market PricesLoads & Market Prices
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Near-Term Conservation Regional Near-Term Conservation Targets (2005-2009) = 700 aMWTargets (2005-2009) = 700 aMW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Reso
urc
e (
aM
W)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
I rrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana’s Share of Near-Term Montana’s Share of Near-Term Conservation Targets (2005-2009) = Conservation Targets (2005-2009) =
57 aMW57 aMW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Reso
urc
e (
aM
W)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
I rrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Why Should We?Why Should We?
What’s Behind the 5What’s Behind the 5thth Plan’s Plan’s Conservation Targets?Conservation Targets?
PNW Portfolio Planning – Scenario Analysis on SteroidsPNW Portfolio Planning – Scenario Analysis on Steroids
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Annual Load Growth
Pro
bab
ilit
y (
%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Real Natural Gas Escalation Rate% )
Pro
bab
ilit
y (
%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
3.27% 3.80% 3.85% 3.93% 2.50%
Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Pro
babilit
y (
%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
98
467
705
842
1,06
9
1,19
1
1,28
3
1,33
5
1,35
3
1,37
3
1,65
0
Resource Potential
Levelized C
ost
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Carbon Tax Implementation Date
Pro
bab
ilty
(%
)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Hydrosytem Year
Cap
acit
y (
MW
)
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Pro
bab
ilit
y
$0 $6 $12 $18 $24 $30 $36
Carbon Tax
Frequency Chart
Dollars
Mean = $689.000
.011
.022
.032
.043
0
10.75
21.5
32.25
43
($3,509) ($1,131) $1,247 $3,625 $6,003
1,000 Trials 1,000 Displayed
Portfolio Portfolio Analysis Analysis ModelModel
$35,500
$36,000
$36,500
$37,000
$37,500
$23,500 $24,000 $24,500 $25,000
NPV System Risk (2004$Millions)
NP
V S
yste
m C
ost
(20
04
$M
illio
ns)
Efficient FrontierEfficient Frontier
NPV System Cost
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plans Along the Efficient Frontier Permit Plans Along the Efficient Frontier Permit Trade-Offs of Costs Against RiskTrade-Offs of Costs Against Risk
$35,500
$36,000
$36,500
$37,000
$37,500
$23,600 $23,800 $24,000 $24,200 $24,400 $24,600
NPV System Cost (Millions)
NPV
Syst
em
Ris
k (
Mill
ions)
Least Risk
Least Cost
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Three Conservation Options TestedThree Conservation Options Tested
Option 1Option 1: : AcceleratedAccelerated – Similar to the “best – Similar to the “best performance” over the last 20 yearsperformance” over the last 20 years– Non-lost opportunity limited to 120 aMW/yearNon-lost opportunity limited to 120 aMW/year– Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% by 2017Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% by 2017
Option 2Option 2: : SustainedSustained - Similar to typical rates over - Similar to typical rates over last 20 yearslast 20 years– Non-lost opportunity limited to 80 aMW/yearNon-lost opportunity limited to 80 aMW/year– Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% by 2017Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% by 2017
Option 3Option 3: : Status QuoStatus Quo - Similar to lowest rates over - Similar to lowest rates over last 20 yearslast 20 years– Non-lost opportunity limited to 40 aMW/yearNon-lost opportunity limited to 40 aMW/year– Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% penetration by 2025Ramp-up lost-opportunity to 85% penetration by 2025
slide 18
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Average Annual Conservation Average Annual Conservation Development for Alternative Levels of Development for Alternative Levels of
Deployment TestedDeployment Tested
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2005 2010 2015 2020Year
Savin
gs
(aM
W)
Option 3 - Status QuoOption 2 - SustainedOption 1 - Accelerated
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Accelerating Conservation Accelerating Conservation Development Reduces Cost & Development Reduces Cost &
RiskRisk
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo
NPV
(bill
ion
20
04
$)
NPV System Cost NPV System Risk
slide 20
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions for Alternative Reductions for Alternative
Conservation TargetsConservation Targets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
ion T
ons
over
20 y
ears
Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Why Energy Efficiency Reduces NPV Why Energy Efficiency Reduces NPV System Cost and RiskSystem Cost and Risk
It’s A Cheap (avg. 2.4 cents/kWh TOTAL It’s A Cheap (avg. 2.4 cents/kWh TOTAL RESOURCE COST) Hedge Against Market RESOURCE COST) Hedge Against Market Price SpikesPrice Spikes
It has value even when market prices are It has value even when market prices are low low
It’s Not Subject to Fuel Price RiskIt’s Not Subject to Fuel Price Risk It’s Not Subject to Carbon Control RiskIt’s Not Subject to Carbon Control Risk It’s Significant Enough In Size to Delay It’s Significant Enough In Size to Delay
“build decisions” on generation“build decisions” on generation
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
The Plan’s Targets Are A The Plan’s Targets Are A Floor, Not a CeilingFloor, Not a Ceiling
When we took the “ramp rate” constraints off the portfolio model it developed
1500 aMW1500 aMW
of Conservation in 2005
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Where Are The Savings?Where Are The Savings?
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Sources of Savings by SectorSources of Savings by Sector
Industrial 350 aMW
12%
Irrigation 80 aMW3%
Commercial 1105 aMW
39%
Residential 1340 aMW
46%
slide 25
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Target = 1340 aMWResidential Sector Target = 1340 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Residential Space Conditioning - 245aMW
Residential Lighting - 630 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 285 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
slide 26
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Target = 1105 aMWCommercial Sector Target = 1105 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Infrastructure
Equipment
Envelope
Lighting
HVAC
slide 27
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Target = Irrigated Agriculture Sector Target = 80 aMW80 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Replace Pumps, Nozzles &Gaskets
Replace Nozzles & Gaskets
Convert Center Pivots fromMedium to Low Pressure
Convert Center Pivots from Highto Low Pressure
slide 28
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial Sector Target = Industrial Sector Target = 350 aMW350 aMW
Estimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loadsEstimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loads 350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh Process controls, drive systems, lighting, Process controls, drive systems, lighting,
refrigeration, compressed air, etcrefrigeration, compressed air, etc Potential is a function of the ongoing Potential is a function of the ongoing
changes in region’s industrial mixchanges in region’s industrial mix
slide 29
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Implementation Implementation ChallengesChallenges
slide 30
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plan Plan Conservation Action ItemsConservation Action Items
Ramp up “Lost Opportunity” conservationRamp up “Lost Opportunity” conservation» Goal => 85% penetration in 12 years Goal => 85% penetration in 12 years » 10 to 30 MWa/year 2005 through 200910 to 30 MWa/year 2005 through 2009
Accelerate the acquisition of “Non-Lost Accelerate the acquisition of “Non-Lost Opportunity” resourcesOpportunity” resources
» Return to acquisition levels of early 1990’sReturn to acquisition levels of early 1990’s» Target 120 MWa/year next five yearsTarget 120 MWa/year next five years
Employ a mix of mechanismsEmploy a mix of mechanisms» Local acquisition programs (utility, SBC Administrator & Local acquisition programs (utility, SBC Administrator &
BPA programs)BPA programs)» Regional acquisition programs and coordinationRegional acquisition programs and coordination» Market transformation venturesMarket transformation ventures
slide 31
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
The Total Resource Acquisition Cost* of The Total Resource Acquisition Cost* of 55thth Plan’s Conservation Targets Plan’s Conservation Targets
2005 – 2009 = $1.64 billion2005 – 2009 = $1.64 billion
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Tota
l R
eso
urc
e C
ost
s(M
illio
ns
20
00
$)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
I rrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
*Incremental capital costs to install measure plus program administration costs estimated at 20% of capital.
slide 32
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Meeting the Plan’s Efficiency Targets Will Meeting the Plan’s Efficiency Targets Will Likely Require Increased Regional InvestmentsLikely Require Increased Regional Investments
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Avera
ge 1
991-
04
Avera
ge 2
001-
2004
2005
2009U
tilit
y I
nvest
men
ts (
mill
ion
20
00
$)
slide 33
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Although, The Share of Utility Although, The Share of Utility Revenues Required is ModestRevenues Required is Modest
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Aver
age
1991
-04
Aver
age
2001
-200
420
0520
09Share
of
Reta
il R
evenues
(%)
Regional Average Revenues/kWh will need to increase by $0.000006/kWh
slide 34
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Utility* Efficiency Acquisition Plans for 2005 Are Utility* Efficiency Acquisition Plans for 2005 Are Close to 5Close to 5thth Plan Targets Plan Targets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 5th Plan Target 2005 Utility Acquistion Plan
Conserv
ati
on L
evels
(M
Wa)
*Targets for 15 Largest PNW Utilities. These utilities represent approximately 80% of regional load.
slide 35
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Most IOU Efficiency Plans are Close Most IOU Efficiency Plans are Close to 5to 5thth Plan’s Targets Plan’s Targets
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pacifi
Corp
(OR,W
A,ID)
Puge
t Sou
nd E
nerg
y
Portland
Gen
eral
Idah
o Po
wer
Avist
a Util
ities
North
weste
rn E
nerg
y
Con
serv
ati
on
Levels
(M
Wa)
Plan Targets
Utility Plans
slide 36
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
However, Several Large Public Utility Efficiency However, Several Large Public Utility Efficiency
Plans Are Well Below 5Plans Are Well Below 5thth Plan Targets Plan Targets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Seattl
e City
Lig
ht
Snoho
mish
PUD
Taco
ma
Power
Cowlit
z PU
D
Clark
PUD
EWEB
Grant
PUD
Bento
n PU
D
Flat
head
REA
Con
serv
ati
on
Levels
(M
Wa)
Plan Targets
Utility Plans
slide 37
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
SummarySummary The 5th Plan’s Goal IsThe 5th Plan’s Goal Is To Make The To Make The
InefficientInefficient Use of Electricity . . . Use of Electricity . . .– ImmoralImmoral– IllegalIllegal– UnprofitableUnprofitable
If We Fail Both If We Fail Both CostsCosts and and Risk Risk Will Be HigherWill Be Higher
slide 38
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Backup SlidesBackup Slides
slide 39
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Electric Sales Montana Electric Sales 1,490 aMW in 2004 1,490 aMW in 2004
Industrial625 aMW
42%
Commercial440 aMW
30%
Residential425 aMW
28%
Source: US DOE/EIA
slide 40
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Electricity Sales Represent Montana Electricity Sales Represent 8% of Regional Sales Across All 8% of Regional Sales Across All
SectorsSectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WA OR ID MT
Share
of
Regio
nal S
ale
s
ResidentialCommerciaIndustrialTotal
slide 41
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Residential Sector ResultsResults
What’s Left To Do At What’s Left To Do At Home?Home?
65 Average MW
slide 42
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Has The Region’s Lowest Montana Has The Region’s Lowest Market Shares of Electric Water and Market Shares of Electric Water and
Space HeatingSpace Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Mark
et
Satu
rati
on
ID MT OR WA Region
Electric Water Heater Electric Heating Central Air Conditioning
slide 43
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana’s Average Electricity Montana’s Average Electricity Use/Residential Customer Is The Use/Residential Customer Is The
Lowest in the RegionLowest in the Region
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Avera
ge A
nnual U
se/C
ust
om
er
(kW
h)
WA OR ID MT Region
slide 44
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
But Residential Customer Use Has Not But Residential Customer Use Has Not Declined Since 1990, While Use in Other Declined Since 1990, While Use in Other
PNW States HasPNW States Has
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Avera
ge
Annual U
se/C
ust
om
er
(kW
h)
ID MT OR WA
slide 45
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana’s Housing Stock is Montana’s Housing Stock is Predominantly Single Family and Predominantly Single Family and
Manufactured HomesManufactured Homes
Multifamily3%
Manufactured Home17%
Single Family80%
slide 46
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Residential Sector Cost-Regional Residential Sector Cost-Effective & Realistically Achievable Effective & Realistically Achievable
Regional Potential = 1340 aMWRegional Potential = 1340 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Residential Space Conditioning - 245aMW
Residential Lighting - 630 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 285 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
slide 47
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Residential Sector Cost-Montana Residential Sector Cost-Effective & Realistically Achievable Effective & Realistically Achievable
Regional Potential = 65 aMWRegional Potential = 65 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s Residential Space Conditioning - 4 aMW
Residential Lighting - 40 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 10 aMW
Residential Appliances - 11 aMW
slide 48
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for AppliancesAchievable Potential for Appliances
Clothes Washers - 135
aMW75%
Dishwashers - 10 aMW
6%
Refrigerators - 35 aMW
19%
slide 49
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Residential Sector Achievable Montana Residential Sector Achievable Conservation Resource Potential for AppliancesConservation Resource Potential for Appliances
Energy Star Dishwashers
1 MW9%
Energy Star Refrigerators
2 aMW18%
Energy Star Clothes Washers8 aMW73%
slide 50
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Water HeatingAchievable Potential for Water Heating
Efficient Tanks29%
95 aMWWaste Water
Heat Recovery4%
15 aMW
Heat Pump Water Heaters
67%225 aMW
slide 51
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Residential Sector Conservation Montana Residential Sector Conservation Resource Potential for Water HeatingResource Potential for Water Heating
High Efficiency Water Heaters
3 aMW27%
Waste Water Heat Recovery
1 aMW9%
Heat Pump Water Heaters
7 aMW64%
slide 52
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Space Achievable Potential for Space
ConditioningConditioningNew Construction -
Shell Measures 40 aMW
16%
Duct Sealing & System
Commissioning & Controls 15 aMW
6%
Weatherization60 aMW
24%
Heat Pump Upgrades 55 aMW
22%
Heat Pump Conversions
75 aMW32%
slide 53
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Residential Sector Conservation Montana Residential Sector Conservation Resource Potential for Space ConditioningResource Potential for Space Conditioning
Heat Pump Upgrades0.9 aMW
23%
Duct Sealing & System
Commissioning & Controls0.3 aMW
7%
Weatherization0.9 aMW
24%
Heat Pump Conversions
1.2 aMW30%
New Construction - Shell Measures
0.6 aMW16%
slide 54
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Commercial Sector ResultsResults
What’s Left To Do At the What’s Left To Do At the Office?Office?
95 Average MW
slide 55
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Non-Building Resource Regional Non-Building Resource Potential = 430 aMWPotential = 430 aMW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160S
ew
age
Tre
atm
em
t
Wate
rTre
atm
ent
LED
Tra
ffic
Sig
nals
Netw
ork
ed
PC
Managem
ent
Pack
aged
Refr
igera
tion
Pow
er
Supplie
s
LED
Exit
Sig
ns
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
slide 56
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Montana Non-Building Resource Montana Non-Building Resource Potential = 30 aMWPotential = 30 aMW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sew
age
Tre
atm
em
t
Wate
rTre
atm
ent
LED
Tra
ffic
Sig
nals
Netw
ork
ed
PC
Managem
ent
Pack
aged
Refr
igera
tion
Pow
er
Supplie
s
LED
Exit
Sig
ns
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
slide 57
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New and Replacement Retrofit
MW
a in
202
5
Equipment
Refrigeration
Envelope
Lighting
HVAC
Cost-Effective Commercial Conservation Potential Cost-Effective Commercial Conservation Potential in 2025 For Building Lighting, HVAC & Equipment- in 2025 For Building Lighting, HVAC & Equipment-
Regional = 950 aMW / Montana = 65 aMWRegional = 950 aMW / Montana = 65 aMW
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s Left To Do Out on the What’s Left To Do Out on the Farm?Farm?
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Irrigated Agriculture Sector ResultsResults
>1 Average MW
slide 59
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial Sector AssessmentIndustrial Sector Assessment
Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)aMW)
Fifth Plan is lower due to changing (less Fifth Plan is lower due to changing (less electrically intensive) industrial mix ) = 5% electrically intensive) industrial mix ) = 5% of 2025 sector loadsof 2025 sector loads
Montana potential @ 5% of 2004 salesMontana potential @ 5% of 2004 sales
= 30 aMW= 30 aMW
slide 60
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
While PNW Annual Utility System While PNW Annual Utility System Investments in Energy Efficiency Have Declined Since Investments in Energy Efficiency Have Declined Since
the Early 1990’sthe Early 1990’s
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Con
serv
ati
on
In
vest
men
ts (
mill
ion
20
00
$)
slide 61
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Total PNW Annual Energy Efficiency Total PNW Annual Energy Efficiency Achievements Have Been Growing, Largely Due Achievements Have Been Growing, Largely Due To The Impact of Energy Codes and StandardsTo The Impact of Energy Codes and Standards
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Con
serv
ati
on
Acq
uis
itio
ns
(aM
W)
Federal Standards
State Codes
Alliance Programs
BPA,Utility and SBC Administrator Programs
slide 62
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Utilities Now Invests Less Than 2% of PNW Utilities Now Invests Less Than 2% of Their Retail Sales Revenues in Energy Their Retail Sales Revenues in Energy
EfficiencyEfficiency
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Con
serv
ati
on
In
vest
men
ts (
mill
ion
20
00
$)
slide 63
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Fortunately . . . The “First Year” Cost ($/aMW) of Fortunately . . . The “First Year” Cost ($/aMW) of Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has DeclinedUtility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Declined
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Con
serv
ati
on
Cost
/aM
W (
mill
ion
20
00
$)
slide 64
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Utilities Have Gotten More Efficient at Acquiring PNW Utilities Have Gotten More Efficient at Acquiring Energy Efficiency - Cost Are Now Below $15 MWHEnergy Efficiency - Cost Are Now Below $15 MWH
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Leveliz
ed C
on
serv
ati
on
Cost
(m
illio
n/M
Wh
20
00
$)
slide 65
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cumulative 1978 - 2004 Efficiency Cumulative 1978 - 2004 Efficiency Achievements by SourceAchievements by Source
Alliance Programs185 aMW
6%
State Codes560 aMW
19%
Federal Standards545 aMW
19%
BPA and Utility Programs1635 aMW
56%
slide 66
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
The Share of PNW Retail Electricity Sales The Share of PNW Retail Electricity Sales Revenues Invested In Energy Efficiency Has Revenues Invested In Energy Efficiency Has
Declined Since The Early 1990’sDeclined Since The Early 1990’s
$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0
$10.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Tota
l R
eta
il Ele
ctri
city
Sale
s R
evenue
(bill
ion 2
000$)
Revenues Invested In EfficiencyRevenues Dedicated to Other Costs
slide 67
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been Cost-Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been Cost-Competitive with Market PurchasesCompetitive with Market Purchases
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
May
-96
Nov-9
6
May
-97
Nov-9
7
May
-98
Nov-9
8
May
-99
Nov-9
9
May
-00
Nov-0
0
May
-01
Nov-0
1
May
-02
Nov-0
2
May
-03
Nov-0
3
May
-04
Nov-0
4
May
-05
Wh
ole
sale
Ele
ctri
city
Pri
ce (
20
00
$/M
WH
)
Wholesale Market Price
Levelized Cost of EfficiencyAcquisitions