IEA © OECD/IEA 2017

Nordic EV Outlook 2018

© OECD/IEA 2017

• Government-to-government forum comprising 13 countries

• Currently co-chaired by Canada, China and the United States*, and coordinated by the IEA

• Released several analytical publications (Global EV Outlook, Nordic EV Outlook, City casebook)

• Instrumental to mobilize action and commitments (Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change at COP21, Government Fleet Declaration at COP22)

New project in preparation with the Global Environment Facility and UNEP for support to EV policy-making

Launched the EV30@30 Campaign in June 2017, aiming to achieve a 30% market share for EVs by 2030

Building of the Pilot City Programme network of cities (launch at CEM9, Copenhagen, 24 May)

Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)

*U.S. co-leadership under review

EV30@30

supporters:

© OECD/IEA 2017

Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical

The Nordic electric car fleet reached almost 250 000 units in circulation last year.

More than 70% of the electric cars circulating in the Nordic region are located in Norway.

Nordic electric car fleet

© OECD/IEA 2017

New electric car registrations almost 90 000 units in 2017

2017 new electric car sales and market share increased in all Nordic countries but in Denmark.

BEVs prevail in Norway and Denmark, while Finland, Iceland and Sweden buy more PHEVs.

Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales, 2010-17

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

12

24

36

48

60

72

20

12

20

17

20

12

20

17

20

12

20

17

20

12

20

17

20

12

20

17

Mar

ket

shar

e

New

ele

ctri

c ca

r sa

les

[th

ou

san

ds]

Denmark

Finland

Iceland

Norway

Sweden

Market share ofelectric cars

PHEV marketshare in the totalof electric cars

© OECD/IEA 2017

• Fuel economy standards • Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives • …

EV support policies

Close monitoring of the effect of EV support policies are paramount to avoid adverse effects.

Purchase incentives Standards, regulations

and mandates

Circulation incentives

Charging infrastructure roll-out

• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates

• Feebates • VAT exemptions • …

• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge

exemption • …

• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning • …

Large scope for

city-level action

© OECD/IEA 2017

Which polices were prioritized in the Nordic region?

Exemptions on registration taxes are perceived by EV owners as a priority, and frequently available in Nordic countries. Local measures complement policy instruments adopted nationwide.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Perc

enta

ge o

f res

po

nse

s Incentives at vehiclepurchase

EV use and circulationincentives

Local measures

Perceived importance of Norway’s electric car support policies

based on survey results:

Overview of support policies for electric cars in the Nordic region, 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017

- 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV ICE BEV PHEV

Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden

tho

usa

nd

s U

SD 2

01

7

Scrapping tax

Subsidy

VAT

Registration tax

Import price

Comparing purchase price of mid-segment BEV, PHEV and ICE

Denmark (BEV), Iceland (PHEV) and Norway (BEV) close the price gap with comparable ICE models.

Source: Inside EVs

© OECD/IEA 2017

Linking purchase price incentives, price gap and market share

The market share of electric cars in Nordic countries tends to be higher when incentives are larger and when the

price gap between electric cars and equivalent ICE models is smaller, with the exception of Denmark.

Iceland PHEV

Denmark BEV

Denmark PHEV

Finland BEV

Finland PHEV

Norway BEV

Norway PHEV

Sweden BEV

Sweden PHEV

Iceland BEV1%

5%

20%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Pu

rch

ase

pri

ce g

ap w

ith

resp

ect

to

an e

qu

ival

ent I

CE

Fiscal incentive on purchase price (USD 2017)

Market share

Effect of fiscal incentives on the ICE/EV price gap:

© OECD/IEA 2017

Lack of continuity in Denmark’s EV acquisition incentives

Despite having the largest purchase incentives of the Nordic region, Denmark had the lowest market shares in the Nordic region. This is largely attributable to the changes in vehicle registration taxes in Denmark, both for ICE and electric cars.

Incentive levels for luxury car segment in Denmark, 2015-17

© OECD/IEA 2017

Nordic EVSE deployment

EVSE deployment increased across all types of chargers in 2017. Publicly available slow and fast chargers grew less than the electric vehicle stock. Publicly available slow chargers outpaced for the first time the growth of fast chargers.

Nordic charging outlets, 2010-17

Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW)

Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla

Superchargers, inductive chargers

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yea

r-o

n-y

ear

gro

wth

ra

te

Ch

arg

ing

ou

tlet

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Private chargers

Publicly available fast

chargers

Publicly available slow

chargers

Growth rate of publicly

available fast chargers

Growth rate of publicly

available slow chargers

Growth rate of private

chargers

© OECD/IEA 2017

Electric cars per charger

Ratios of publicly accessible EVSE outlets per electric car vary significantly: Norway and Iceland, the

countries with the most advanced electric car markets, show the lowest ratios.

Nordic charging outlet ratios, 2010-17

Slow chargers: AC level 1 and 2 (<22kW)

Fast chargers: AC 43kW, DC, CHAdeMO, Tesla

Superchargers, inductive chargers

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25D

en

mar

k

Fin

lan

d

Ice

lan

d

No

rway

Swed

en

BEV

sh

are

in s

tock

EVSE

/ele

ctri

c ca

r

EVSE/Electric car(total)

EVSE/Electric car(slow)

EVSE/Electric car(fast)

BEV share in PLDVstock

EU 2020 target (left-axis)

© OECD/IEA 2017

Which polices were prioritized in the Nordic region?

Support for public charging infrastructure is widespread in the Nordic countries, while policies for

private charging (building regulations and subsidies) are not.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Perc

enta

ge o

f res

po

nse

s Incentives at vehiclepurchase

EV use and circulationincentives

Local measures

Policy type Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden

Deployment target 4 4

Building regulations 1 4

Publicly accessible chargers 4 3 4 4 4

Private chargers 4 1 4

Research & development 4 4 4

Publicly accessible chargers 4

Private chargers 4 4

Legend: 0 No policy

1 Local policy

4 Nationwide policy

Regulations

Direct

Investment

Fiscal

advantages

Overview of support policies for charging infrastructure in

the Nordic region, 2017

Perceived importance of Norway’s electric car support policies

based on survey results:

© OECD/IEA 2017

No place like home...

Home is the most used charging location.

Publicly accessible charging mostly applies to specific circumstances.

Charging occurrence per charging location in Norway, 2014-17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017 2014 2016 2017

Publicly accessibleFast

Publicly accessibleSlow

Work Home

Never

Monthly

Weekly

Daily

© OECD/IEA 2017

Are electric cars impacting the power grid?

Home chargers can add significant loads to the household power demand. Unless properly managed (e.g. delayed charging), electricity demand due to electric car charging could exceed the maximum power in the distribution grid.

Peak electricity demand in independent Norwegian houses with home charging

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Summer day Winter day Extra cold day (-13°C)

kWh

/h

Typical BEV onboardcharger

Typical PHEV onboardcharger

Typical household peakpower demand

Power connection typicallarge home

Power connection typicalsmall home

© OECD/IEA 2017

EVs benefit the environment and are essential to CO2 emissions reduction

EVs use significantly less energy per km than ICE cars. The Nordic grid is especially well suited to ensure

that EV also deliver very significant CO2 emission reductions.

Well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG intensity of a BEV compared to an ICE by Nordic country, 2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden EU average

gCO

2-e

q/k

m

WTW GHG

emissions BEV

WTW GHG

emissions gasoline

WTW GHG

emissions diesel

© OECD/IEA 2017

Nordic electric car stock could reach 4 million by 2030

Current market size, announced policies and climate ambitions in the five Nordic countries

suggest that the EV stock could reach 4 million units by 2030.

Deployment scenario of electric cars in the Nordic region towards 2030

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Elec

tric

ca

rs (m

illi

on

s)

Sweden

Norway

Iceland

Finland

Denmark

© OECD/IEA 2017

Publicly accessible EVSE deployment in the Nordic region

The number of publicly accessible charging outlets could range between 210 000 and 400 000 by 2030,

with a central estimate at 290 000 units.

Deployment scenario of public charging infrastructure in the Nordic region towards 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Nu

mb

er o

f ch

arg

ers

(th

ou

san

ds)

Norway alignment scenario - Total publicly accessible

Publicly accessible fast chargers

Publicly accessible slow chargers

Publicly accessible chargers - Central deployment scenario

© OECD/IEA 2017

EVs set to deliver major CO2 savings

4 million EVs could help save 8 MtCO2eq on that year across the five Nordic countries, which is

equivalent to 29% of GHG emitted from passenger vehicles in the Nordics in 2017.

GHG emissions from electric cars in the Nordics compared to ICEs, 2017-30

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt C

O₂e

q)

GHG emissions - All-ICE

penetration scenario

GHG emissions from electric

cars - EU grid scenario

(without decarbonisation)

GHG emissions from electric

cars - EU grid scenario (with

decarbonisation)

GHG emissions from electric

cars - Nordic grid scenario

(without decarbonisation)

GHG emissions from electric

cars - Nordic grid scenario

(with decarbonisation)

© OECD/IEA 2017

Conclusion

• Nordic electric car market is booming, although at various speeds

per country.

• Policy support continues to be the main driver of strong electric

car uptake. Closing the purchase price gap is key.

• Charging mostly takes place at home, although coverage of

publicly accessible charging infrastructure expands options.

• Overall power demand can be managed, although local grids need

close attention.

• Electric cars in the Nordic region allow for lower carbon mobility

now and towards 2030.

© OECD/IEA 2017

Questions?

transport@iea.org

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/nordic-ev-outlook-2018.html

© OECD/IEA 2017

Back-up - Many ways to be involved in the EVSE market

The value chain of charging infrastructure stretches from car makers to the electricity grid and involves

a large number of stakeholders.

© OECD/IEA 2017

Back-up - Price ranges for charging practices

The price of EVSE use varies significantly depending on the charger's characteristics, with higher prices

applied to publicly available chargers, especially fast chargers.

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Private Public slow Public fast

Pay per kWh

USD

/kW

h

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Public slow Public fast

Pay per hour(including parking)

USD

/h

Nordic charging tariffs, 2017