NOAA’sNOAA’sNational Weather ServiceNational Weather Service

IFP/NDFD IFP/NDFD Conceptual Conceptual OverviewOverview

Michael TomlinsonMichael TomlinsonOffice of Climate Water and Weather ServicesOffice of Climate Water and Weather Services

NWS Partners’ WorkshopNWS Partners’ Workshop

September 11, 2003September 11, 2003

The NWS Strategic PlanThe NWS Strategic Plan

Deliver a credible, timely, and relevant suite of Deliver a credible, timely, and relevant suite of seamless weather, water, and climate seamless weather, water, and climate products and services which exploit products and services which exploit technology to the fullest to meet customer technology to the fullest to meet customer and partner needs.and partner needs.

Post NWS products and data on the Internet in Post NWS products and data on the Internet in graphic-oriented format (2002)graphic-oriented format (2002)

Prepare and disseminate NWS forecast products Prepare and disseminate NWS forecast products in digital form (2003)in digital form (2003)

Benefits of Interactive Benefits of Interactive Forecast Preparation (IFP)Forecast Preparation (IFP)

– MaximizesMaximizes human contributionhuman contribution to forecast to forecast processprocess

– Provides more Provides more forecast detailforecast detail in time and in time and spacespace

– Enables Enables more effective communicationmore effective communication with with users (e.g., graphics)users (e.g., graphics)

– Increases the usefulnessIncreases the usefulness of NWS forecasts to of NWS forecasts to customers and partnerscustomers and partners

How Does IFP Work?How Does IFP Work?

– A 7-day digital forecast database is established at A 7-day digital forecast database is established at each WFOeach WFO

– Forecasters continuously interactively modify the Forecasters continuously interactively modify the contents of the database using the latest contents of the database using the latest observations and model guidanceobservations and model guidance

– NWS text, tabular, voice, and graphic products NWS text, tabular, voice, and graphic products are generated from the databaseare generated from the database

– The database itself is provided as an NWS The database itself is provided as an NWS product to customers and partnersproduct to customers and partners

IFPS Grid EditorIFPS Grid Editor

Computer Worded ForecastComputer Worded Forecast

.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOW IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT WIND EARLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. HIGH IN THE UPPER 60s. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOW AROUND 30. LIGHT WIND.

.MONDAY...SUNNY AND COOLER. HIGH IN THE MID 50S.

Digital Forecast MatrixDigital Forecast MatrixWVZ033-034-VAZ003-004-131124-BUCHANAN VA-DICKENSON VA-MCDOWELL WV-WYOMING WV-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLINTWOOD VA...GRUNDY VA...PINEVILLE WV...WELCH WV324 PM EST SAT JAN 12 2002

SUN 01/13/02 MON 01/14/02 EST 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06

POP 12HR 40 20 10 30 40QPF 12HR .01-.10 0 0 .01-.10 .01-.10MAX QPF .01-.10 0 0 .01-.10SNOW 12HR 00-00 00-00 00-00MN/MX 27 31 32 36 40 42 22 28 30 36 40 41 30 32 34TEMP 45 41 37 32 33 36 39 39 36 33 30 28 30 34 38 39DEWPT 31 31 30 30 29 29 28 28 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 30RH 58 67 76 92 85 75 64 64 67 75 85 88 81 72 67 70WIND DIR SW W W W NW NW NW NW W W W SW S S SW SWWIND SPD 10 12 15 15 15 15 15 12 10 8 8 8 12 15 15 10 10 10 5 5CLOUDS SC B1 B2 B2 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2RAIN C C CSNOW C C C C C C CWIND CHILL 26 18 11 13 17 21 24 23 23 19 17 12 14 19 27

Experimental Experimental Web ProductWeb Product

NDFD DefinitionNDFD Definition

Contains a Contains a seamless seamless mosaicmosaic of NWS digital of NWS digital forecastsforecasts

Is Is available to all users available to all users and partnersand partners – public and – public and privateprivate

Allows users and partners Allows users and partners to to create wide range of create wide range of text, graphic, and image text, graphic, and image productsproducts

NDFD BenefitsNDFD Benefits Provides weather information to “drive” applications Provides weather information to “drive” applications

developed by private sector:developed by private sector: - Decision support systems that fit the- Decision support systems that fit the

forecast to the problemforecast to the problem - Weather information along a path- Weather information along a path - Text generation in more than one language- Text generation in more than one language - Forecasts for vehicles and hand-held devices- Forecasts for vehicles and hand-held devices with GPSwith GPS - Controls for smart appliances (e.g., heating,- Controls for smart appliances (e.g., heating, cooling, irrigation)cooling, irrigation) - Graphics for mass media- Graphics for mass media

NDFD Forecast ElementsNDFD Forecast Elements

The NDFD will contain:The NDFD will contain: Weather, water, and climate forecasts from WFOs, Weather, water, and climate forecasts from WFOs,

RFCs, and NCEP Service CentersRFCs, and NCEP Service Centers Elements that support generation of Elements that support generation of current WFO current WFO

productsproducts DigitalDigital watch, warning, and advisory information watch, warning, and advisory information Elements that would attract user development of Elements that would attract user development of

graphics and decision toolsgraphics and decision tools The The officialofficial NWS forecast for each element NWS forecast for each element

Current NDFD Current NDFD Experimental ElementsExperimental Elements

Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatureDaytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature Probability of Precipitation (12 hour)Probability of Precipitation (12 hour) Significant weatherSignificant weather Sky coverSky cover TemperatureTemperature Dewpoint temperatureDewpoint temperature Wind direction and speedWind direction and speed Precipitation amount (QPF)Precipitation amount (QPF) Snow amountSnow amount Wave heightWave height

NDFD ResolutionNDFD Resolution

Spatial resolution:Spatial resolution: - 5 km grids for now- 5 km grids for now - 2.5 km grids when AWIPS upgraded- 2.5 km grids when AWIPS upgraded Temporal resolution:Temporal resolution: - 3 hourly for days 1-3 - 3 hourly for days 1-3 - 6 hourly for days 4-7- 6 hourly for days 4-7 - as available from CPC beyond day 7- as available from CPC beyond day 7 Update frequency: every hourUpdate frequency: every hour

IFP/NDFDIFP/NDFD Prototype Prototype 2001- 2002 2001- 2002

IFP Operational Readiness IFP Operational Readiness Demonstration – Summer 03Demonstration – Summer 03

IFP ORD Success CriteriaIFP ORD Success Criteria– Timeliness: New Day 7 grids are available by 1800 Timeliness: New Day 7 grids are available by 1800

UTC each day 95 percent of the timeUTC each day 95 percent of the time

– Availability: Grids available 95 percent of the timeAvailability: Grids available 95 percent of the time

– Consistency: Meteorological consistency of all Consistency: Meteorological consistency of all transmitted grids along WFO boundaries within transmitted grids along WFO boundaries within prescribed thresholds 90 percent of the timeprescribed thresholds 90 percent of the time

– Quailty: Point verification for maximum and Quailty: Point verification for maximum and minimum temperature and PoP within natural minimum temperature and PoP within natural variability bounds as compared with past years variability bounds as compared with past years for same datesfor same dates

IFP Performance IFP Performance (August 2003)(August 2003)

– Timeliness: New day 7 grids from each WFO Timeliness: New day 7 grids from each WFO are available by 1800 UTC each day are available by 1800 UTC each day 85-9585-95 percent of the time. [varies by element]percent of the time. [varies by element]

– Availability: Grids available Availability: Grids available 9595 percent of the percent of the time.time.

– Consistency: Meteorological consistency Consistency: Meteorological consistency along WFO CWA boundaries of all transmitted along WFO CWA boundaries of all transmitted grids are within prescribed thresholds grids are within prescribed thresholds 90-9590-95 percent of the time. [varies by element]percent of the time. [varies by element]

IFP/NDFD ORD VerificationIFP/NDFD ORD Verification

IFP/NDFD ORD VerificationIFP/NDFD ORD Verification

IFP/NDFD ORD VerificationIFP/NDFD ORD Verification

NDFD Technical workshopNDFD Technical workshop

Key Participant Recommendations:Key Participant Recommendations:– Explore providing Grids in NetCDF formatExplore providing Grids in NetCDF format– Provide grid product update informationProvide grid product update information– Provide “change only” accessProvide “change only” access– Ensure conformity with digital data standardsEnsure conformity with digital data standards– Expand NDFD domain to aviation and oceansExpand NDFD domain to aviation and oceans– Continue efforts to add probabilistic informationContinue efforts to add probabilistic information– Find a way to get expanded NDFD information Find a way to get expanded NDFD information

out to partners/usersout to partners/users

In The WorksIn The Works

Digital data standards and NDFD metadataDigital data standards and NDFD metadata NDFD expansion to the Gulf and High SeasNDFD expansion to the Gulf and High Seas Validation of science in NDFD “tools”Validation of science in NDFD “tools” Publish collaboration thresholds by elementPublish collaboration thresholds by element NDFD “What’s New” web pageNDFD “What’s New” web page Plan targeted NDFD user group meetings Plan targeted NDFD user group meetings

on consistency and collaboration thresholdson consistency and collaboration thresholds

NDFD Beyond 2003NDFD Beyond 2003

Finer temporal and spatial resolutionFiner temporal and spatial resolution– Additional forecast elementsAdditional forecast elements

Derived parameters, fire weather, marineDerived parameters, fire weather, marine ProbabilisticProbabilistic Digital forecasts from NCEP service centersDigital forecasts from NCEP service centers 3D grids capable of supporting aviation services3D grids capable of supporting aviation services

– Watches, Warnings, and AdvisoriesWatches, Warnings, and Advisories based on Valid Time Event Codesbased on Valid Time Event Codes excluding short-fused convectiveexcluding short-fused convective

– Meteorological objects (in BUFR)Meteorological objects (in BUFR)– Interactive web servicesInteractive web services

NDFD Elements Under NDFD Elements Under DevelopmentDevelopment

Apparent temperature (Heat index + wind chill)Apparent temperature (Heat index + wind chill) Relative humidityRelative humidity Wind gust speedWind gust speed Max/min relative humidityMax/min relative humidity Lightning Activity LevelLightning Activity Level Mixing heightMixing height Transport wind direction and speedTransport wind direction and speed Haines indexHaines index VisibilityVisibility Ice coverageIce coverage Swell height and directionSwell height and direction

Probabilities in NDFDProbabilities in NDFD(August 2003)(August 2003)

– PoP12PoP12– Prob/Cvrg Codes for specific precip types Prob/Cvrg Codes for specific precip types

(e.g., snow, tstm)(e.g., snow, tstm)

Slight Chance/Isolated (20%)Slight Chance/Isolated (20%) Chance/Scattered (30%-50%)Chance/Scattered (30%-50%) Likely/Numerous (60%-70%)Likely/Numerous (60%-70%) Occasional/Definite/Widespread (80%-100%)Occasional/Definite/Widespread (80%-100%)

Probabilities in NDFDProbabilities in NDFD (proposed)(proposed)

– Percent probability of frozen precipitationPercent probability of frozen precipitation– Percent probability of freezing precipitationPercent probability of freezing precipitation– Percent probability of thunderstormsPercent probability of thunderstorms– Exceedence forecasts for set confidence levelsExceedence forecasts for set confidence levels

Max QPFMax QPF Max wind speedMax wind speed Max wave heightMax wave height Max max temp (summer)Max max temp (summer) Min min temp (winter)Min min temp (winter) Max snow amountMax snow amount

Digital Digital ForecastsForecasts From NCEP From NCEP Service CentersService Centers

– CPC – Temperature and precipitation CPC – Temperature and precipitation anomaliesanomalies

– HPC – Surface front forecasts (BUFR)HPC – Surface front forecasts (BUFR)– OPC & TPC – Offshore and high seas wind, OPC & TPC – Offshore and high seas wind,

wave, and pressure forecastswave, and pressure forecasts– AWC – Aviation objects in BUFR (phase 1)AWC – Aviation objects in BUFR (phase 1)

– – 3D grids (phase 2)3D grids (phase 2)

3D Grids To Support 3D Grids To Support Aviation ServicesAviation Services

– Important to NWS, but...Important to NWS, but...– Manipulating grids of clouds and weather is Manipulating grids of clouds and weather is

HARDHARD– Cloud layers , ceilings, visibilities, and Cloud layers , ceilings, visibilities, and

PROB40 not easy to represent digitallyPROB40 not easy to represent digitally– Will need help of user communityWill need help of user community

IFPS/NDFD in a nutshellIFPS/NDFD in a nutshell

from teletype text… …to digital data streams