Slide 1

NOAA Space Weather Directions for Future Operational Services

Louis UccelliniNOAA National Weather ServiceNational Centers for Environmental PredictionSpace Weather Workshop 25 April, 2012

1OutlineService TrendsImproving Operational ServiceObservationsModelsSpace Weather Prediction TestbedNational Unification EffortsInternational CollaborationsSummaryService TrendsSES SatelliteInmarsatFEMABoeingFAAAlaska DOTChryslerMotorolaBritish Petroleum AmericaMultiple Electric Utility CompaniesWashington St. Dept of TransportationJohn Deere & Caterpillar, Inc.Major Airlines UAL, AA, CO, DeltaUnited Launch AllianceBarclays Sample Recent Registrants http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ (Email Products)Annual number of forecaster generated productsDoes not include automated analysis, model guidance, satellite productsAnnual Number of Routine and Event Driven Space Weather Products Issued Routine Products Sunspot Number Event Products5Improving Operational ServicesObservationsModelsSpace Weather Prediction TestbedContinue and Expand Coverage of Critical ObservationsEXIS X-ray sensor, expanded dynamic range and flare location SEISS energetic particle detectorsSUVI solar imagerLaunch ~FY2016

GOES-RNOAAs Commitment to Improve OperationsGOES flagship space weather satellite

GOES-R improve support for the detection andobservations of space weather phenomena that directly affect public safety, and economic health and development.

7The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) program is a key element of NOAAs operations. GOES-R will continue the legacy of critical space weather measurements while adding new particle radiation sensors to meet customer needs. This will result in more accurate and actionable support for the detection and observations of space weather phenomena for the protection of our Nations technological infrastructure. The first launch of the GOES-R series satellite is scheduled for 2015. New solar imagerNew X-Ray Sensor: Expanded dynamic range and flare location capabilityNew Energetic Particle Detectors

DSCOVR is an existing NASA satellite with solar wind sensorsNASA/GSFC refurbishes with NOAA fundingNOAA ($30.1M funded FY12)NESDIS operations, data processing, archive, calibration/validationNWS/SWPC forecasts & warningsAir Force launch ($134.5M funded FY12)International Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet) downlinks data

DSCOVRNOAAs Commitment to Improve OperationsExpand Coverage of Critical ObservationsDeep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) is a NASA/NOAA/DoD Tri-agency partnership to replace the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite and ensure the continuity of critical real time solar wind measurements.

Spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in summer 2014Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAARefurbishment of satellite sensors will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAAAll data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet)A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow- on mission

8Global Weather Ensemble9Air Quality

RegionalModelHurricaneGlobalWeatherForecast

Dispersion

Forecast

Severe WeatherAviation

Climate ForecastShort-RangeEnsembleNOAH Land Surface ModelCoupledGlobal DataAssimilation

9RegionalDASatellites + Radar99.9%~2B Obs/DayNOS OFS

Great Lakes

Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware

SpaceWeather(Enlil)

Regional DA

Oceans(HYCOM)

Waves

NOAAs Operational Model Production SuiteFrom the Sun to the Sea9910Space Weather Operational Model: EnlilFirst operational implementation of a space weather model on the NCEP operational computerJointly developed by scientists with NOAA, NASA, the Air Force Research Laboratory, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder, Boston University, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and George Mason University. Provides 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic stormsProvides perspective on structures 1-27 days in advanceReduces error in geomagnetic storm onset time from 12 hrs to 6 hrs

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10WSA-Enlil predictions of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) hitting the earth.Radial Ve2011

Computing Capabilityreliable, timely and accurate

Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

200120032005200720092011Current computersIBM Power673.1 trillion calculations/sec 2 billion observations/day27.8 million model fields/dayPrimary: Gaithersburg, MDBackup: Fairmont, WVGuaranteed switchover in 15 minutesNext generation computer: by Oct 2013IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux143 trillion calc/secPrimary: Reston, VABackup: Orlando, FL

11EVENT STARTShock at ACEWSA/ENLIL NOAADIFF02/13/2011 01:4402/18/2011 00:4902/17/2011 15:00-09:4903/08/2011 20:1403/10/2011 06:1003/10/2011 08:00+01:5006/02/2011 07:5706/04/2011 19:5806/04/2011 08:00-11:5806/21/2011 03:2506/23/2011 02:2606/23/2011 12:00+09:3408/02/2011 06:1908/05/2011 17:2208/05/2011 17:00-00:2209/06/2011 00:0009/09/2011 11:4909/09/2011 17:00+05:1109/14/2011 02:0009/17/2011 02:5609/16/2011 21:00-05:5609/24/2011 10:0009/26/2011 11:5309/26/2011 16:00+04:0710/01/2011 00:0010/05/2011 06:4710/05/2011 16:00+09:1310/26/2011 10:0010/30/2011 08:5510/30/2011 10:00+01:0511/09/2011 13:5411/12/2011 05:3011/12/2011 02:00-03:3011/26/2011 08:0011/28/2011 21:1511/29/2011 12:00+14:4512/25/2011 02:0012/28/2011 09:5612/27/2011 20:00-13:5601/16/2012 02:4801/21/2012 05:0201/20/2012 04:00-25:0201/23/2012 04:0001/24/2012 14:3101/24/2012 14:00-00:3102/10/2012 21:3002/14/2012 07:0002/14/2012 07:0000:0002/24/2012 03:4602/26/2012 20:5802/26/2012 20:00-00:5803/07/2012 01:2403/08/2012 10:4503/08/2012 10:00-00:45AVERAGE06:35RMS Error09:17Enlil Verification StatisticsNegative Diff Model Prediction too early, Positive too lateSpace Weather Prediction TestbedPrincipal Objectives: Accelerate the transition of research models to operations Improve operational space weather services at SWPC and AFWA. SWPT Tasks:In partnership with research community, identify, investigate, and recommend models, research, and observational advancesManage focused research on data-analysis techniques, models, observational systemsValidate and verify numerical codes and forecast techniques emerging from researchDevelop usable customer-based metricsIssue documentation, training materials, and evaluationsWork through established NCEP operational implementation processPrincipal Objectives: To infuse the benefits of new research and technology developments into operational space weather products and services To improve the value and capabilities of the Space Weather Prediction Centers (SWPC) alerts, watches, warnings and forecasts.

SWPT Tasks:Identify, investigate, and recommend new modeling capabilities, research results, and observational advancesConduct/support/manage focused research on data-analysis techniques/algorithms, forecast models, and observational systemsTest/validate/verify promising numerical codes and forecast techniques emerging from the research communityDevelop usable customer-based metricsIssue documentation, training materials, and evaluations

13Testbed Plans and Activities Modify and update the WSA-Enlil model

Ovation Model in transition

In partnership with NASA CCMC, evaluate and validate Geospace models for transition to operations

Develop the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = extended GFS) and couple it to the Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) model

Upgrade operational product suite critical new data sets Geomagnetic storm products USGS and INTERMAGNET data NOAAs Commitment to Improve OperationsWSA-ENLIL Model

Ovation Model

14As of December 2011, WSA-Enlil is now operational. It is the first sophisticated numerical space weather prediction model running on NCEP supercomputers, developed from NASA and the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and Air Force Weather Agency supported efforts, designed to meet the fast-growing needs of the Nation.This is the first of many new numerical forecast models. We have turned that corner at NOAA thanks to the help from our partners. But the work is not done. Efforts to improve WSA-ENLIL are underway.

The SWPT has introduced a new Auroral Forecast product in an effort to improve services to current customers and expand our customer base with new products. The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION prime model which provides a 30-40 minute forecast on the location and probability of auroral displays for both the northern and southern polar regions.

SWPC, in cooperation with CCMC and the academic community, is also in the process of identifying new geospace models for transition to operations. This will be vital in assessing the near-Earth environment and deriving critical products for the growing customer base. SWPC in cooperation with NCEPs EMC is extending the GFS Weather Model to near-space (600km) to improve ionospheric forecasts in support of the fast-growing GPS customer base.

SWPC is working with electric utility groups across the Nation to provide the critical input necessary to upgrade the NWS suite of geomagnetic storm products. This is our effort to produce actionable products for power grid operators to help ensure stability of the power grid during geomagnetic storms.NOAA is also working closely with USGS, utilizing the INTERMAGNETIC (International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network) global network of real-time magnetometers, facilitating data exchanges for the production of geomagnetic products in real time.

National Unification EffortsImprove use and integration of available space weather observations into operationsImprove and accelerate research to operationsDevelop new and improved mission-tailored space weather products and servicesImprove collaboration between National Space Weather Program agencies Improve coordination & cooperation with international communityFederal agencies working together to develop a unified approach to understand and mitigate impacts of space weather on our Nation Unified National Space Weather CapabilityThe scope of effort required to address space weather support to our nation is beyond the capability of any single agency. It is in the national interest that such Federal programs be closely coordinated and mutually supportive to efficiently and effectively meet the growing demand for space weather information and services.

This initiative will: Align agency programs within current authorities Enhance communications and the exchange and availability of information Establish opportunities for joint projects, programs, facilities, and other collaborative science, services, and tools to support integrative and adaptive space weather resources 16National Science Foundation basic research and modeling advances Air Force Weather Agency Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON), Joint Operations, SWPC backupNASA research satellite observations, modeling and real-time model assessments through Community Coordinated Modeling Center U.S. Geological Survey Magnetometer data NOAAs Reliance on UNSWC PartnersOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology: Facilitated the development of the UNSWC agreement

NSF supports theoretical, observational, and numerical modeling research with the goals of increasing fundamental understanding of space weather processes and improving NOAAs space weather predictive capability.

NOAA relies on AFWAs high quality, real time operational space weather observations and products, that not only support national security interests, but support NOAAs commitments to commercial and government sector too. NOAA collaborates daily with AFWA on joint space weather products.

NASAs research satellites provide critical support for NOAAs operational services. CCMC perform the research and development for next-generation space science and space weather models, critical for the advancement of NOAAs forecasting mission.

The USGS real-time network of ground-based magnetometers provides critical input for NOAAs geomagnetic storm alerts and warnings. 17Observations GOES X-rays, protons; ACE Real TimeRunning Models in Operational mode research/community developed (WSA-ENLIL, Ovation, D-Rap) Distribution to all usersSpace weather observations, forecasts, warnings 24x7Outreach and educationInternational connection through WMO

NOAAs Contribution to UNSWC

The National Weather Service (NWS) mission is to provide weather forecasts and warnings for the United States, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Critical elements of this mission include monitoring, analyzing, and predicting the space environment, and educating government and industry on the potential impacts from space weather on the Nations infrastructure and people.

NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community.

Critical continuous, real time space-based observation provided to the nation and the world from the NOAA GOES spacecraft.

NOAA coordinated and funded the real-time beacon on ACE, established ground tracking from global partners, and processes the data in real time for use by operational centers around the world.

Enlil output available now in operational mode for all to use.

New Ovation model supports high demand for location and probability of aurora.

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UNSWC PortalCoordinated through OFCM/UNSWC signatoriesProvides a gateway to access federally funded space weather information, services, and activities. Connects to a system of existing portals and websites, providing national information to enhance understanding. Official rollout on June 5 at the Space Weather Enterprise Forum in D.C. Currently soliciting feedback

http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/clauer/portal/shortnames.htmlPOC: Genene FisherInternational CollaborationGlobal Threat Global ResponseKey Role for International PartnershipsPartnerships are required for:Reliable access to space-based and ground-based observationsImprovements in our science and modeling capabilitiesCoordination of our global and regional products and servicesGrowth of operational capabilities and capacities in every Nation 16th WMO Congress:

a coordinated effort by Members is needed to address the observing and service requirements to protect against the global hazards of Space Weather.21At the 16th WMO Congress last spring, the Congress affirmed that a coordinated effort by Members is needed to address the observing and service requirements to protect against the global hazards of Space Weather.

The space weather service enterprise is growing around the globe. This is driven by the increasing need to mitigate the impacts of space weather, primarily because our infrastructure is becoming more complex and more vulnerable.

But we will not be able to meet the space weather needs of the future unless we can partner effectively.

Partnership are required for:Reliable access to space-based and ground-based observationsImprovements in our science and modeling capabilitiesCoordination of our global and regional products and servicesGrowth of operational capabilities and capacities in every Nation

The growth that is occurring today in the space weather service enterprise gives us the opportunity to meet our future needs through the effective coordination of our efforts.

International Coordination of Space WeatherInternational Space Environment Service (ISES) Coordinating space weather services since 1962 14 Regional Warning Centers around the globe New ISES Director in July 2012 - Terry Onsager of SWPC

WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather Established in 2010 Expanding global effort in space weather services

Recent activities include: WMO Space Weather Product Portal Space Weather observing requirements and gap analysis WMO-ICAO coordination for aviation supportSpace weather trainingEfforts are now going on at all levels to improve the coordination of space weather services.ISES has been the primary organization engaged in the coordination of space weather services since 1962.

More recently, the WMO formed the Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather to work closely with ISES and other organizations to expand the international participation in space weather services, taking advantage of the increasing interest among the meteorology agencies. The ICTSW has members from 14 countries and 6 international organizations. Many, but not all, of the ISES members participate in the ICTSW.Recent activities of the ICTSW/ISES effort include: 1. the WMO Space Weather Product Portal; 2. the documenting of space weather observing requirement and work toward a gap analysis; and 3. coordination between WMO and ICAO on space weather service requirements for aviation.Value of the WMO Space Weather Product Portal: - Enhance awareness of available products - Enable use by partners at no cost - Facilitate intercomparison and coordination of products - Increase global participation in space weather services

To date, ten countries have offered products to include on the portal: Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Japan, UK, and U.S.

Next steps include adding training to expand the number of users.

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Global Threat Global ResponseNOAAs Contribution to International Space WeatherSpace Weather at the UNWorld Meteorological Organization International Civil Aviation OrganizationUN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

International Space Weather OperationsUnited Kingdom Partnering on model development, forecaster training, and collaborative operational concepts, R2OKorean Radio Research AgencyProviding key real-time data from ACEEuropean Space AgencyPlans to build upon respective capabilities

Many other exciting collaborations underway or being explored

23Space weather storms have global impacts, and NOAAs collaborations and partnerships do not stop at U.S. borders. The NWS is stepping up to make this happen by participating in efforts by UN groups, such as the WMO, ICAO, COPUOS, as well partnering with numerous countries.

The UN now recognizes the increasing need to monitor and manage this risk, and we are working together to develop internationally accepted standards. NOAA will continue to foster global collaboration, working closely with individual nations.

For example, the UK groups are initiating new space weather capabilities and are partnering with NOAA on model development, forecaster training, and service back-up.

The Korean Radio Research Agency just opened the new Korean Space Weather Center last November. They will be providing key real-time data from the ACE satellite in the solar wind and plan on continuing this activity with future solar wind satellites. We have been exchanging personnel with the Radio Research Agency and are working together to build their space weather capabilities.

Under the European Space Agencys Space Situational Awareness Programme, there are plans to federate existing space weather capabilities from individual nations into a more broadly accessible Service Coordination Centre. We will be working closely with ESA to build upon our respective capabilities.

The benefits of global cooperation are numerous: 1) providing greater access to observations, research & modeling, 2) ultimately improving the skill of forecasts, 3) improving regional expertise, 4) specializing in space weather science & services

NOAA is assisting and partnering in these global efforts.

SummarySWPC/NCEP making progress in solidifying the operational real-time capacity for providing real-time products and services -- Working with the research and private sector communities -- Collaborating with international partners to insure a more unified and robust service provisionImplemented first operational space weather model derived from the research community, extending forecast skill for advance warnings of geomagnetic storms out to 4 daysActively engaged with the National Unification Efforts -- Rely on larger research community for advancing model capability -- Solidify decision support services within U.S. government agencies -- Support private sectors expansion of space weather models and service -- Embrace the developing unified portalActively engaged with the international space weather community through the WMO -- Current focus in on collaborative operational support with UKMet

Other Partners

Academia

Private Sector

Partnerships: A Critical Element forMeeting National and Global Needs25 We must continue to support and perform the research and development for next generation space science and space weather models. This goal can only be accomplished with the coordinated effort of all of our partners, including NASA, NSF, DoD, and the broad public and private sectors.

Key components include: 1) Establishing our observing network, 2) Conducting the research needed to understanding natural hazards, 3) Working with our customers to make sure that the right information is available at the right time for decision makers to act effectively.

NOAAs partner agencies (NASA, NSF, DoD, and others) are making a large investment in our scientific understanding of the entire sun-to-Earth chain.

Through these partnerships, better products and services will emerge in the science community, and result in new capabilities that have tangible benefits to many segments of the economy, including greater safety for the flying public and beyond.

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