NOAA NextGen WeatherNOAA NextGen Weather

Mark B. Miller

NOAA NextGen Weather Program Manager

December 2, 2010

Mark B. Miller

NOAA NextGen Weather Program Manager

December 2, 2010

2

AgendaAgenda

NextGen Background

Program Alignment

Current Status

Challenges

Summary

NextGen Background

Program Alignment

Current Status

Challenges

Summary

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The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)

NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:

Increase capacity and reliability

Improve safety and security

Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

NextGen is a Congressionallymandated initiative to modernize the U.S Air Transportation Systemin order to:

Increase capacity and reliability

Improve safety and security

Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

Weather impacts today:Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information

Aviation Weather Aviation Weather TodayToday

NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)

Not integrated Not integrated into aviation into aviation decision support decision support systems (DSS)systems (DSS)

Today’s Today’s requirements can requirements can lead to lead to inconsistent infoinconsistent info

Low temporal Low temporal resolution (for resolution (for aviation decision aviation decision making making purposes)purposes)

Disseminated in Disseminated in minutesminutes

Updated by Updated by scheduleschedule

Fixed product Fixed product formats (graphic formats (graphic or text)or text)

““Stovepipes”Stovepipes”

Totally integrated Totally integrated into DSSinto DSS

Updated Updated requirements/ requirements/ Nationally Nationally consistentconsistent

High temporal High temporal resolutionresolution

Disseminated in Disseminated in secondsseconds

Updated by Updated by events events

Flexible formatsFlexible formats

The 4-D Cube!The 4-D Cube!

***The total cost of U.S. domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as

$41 billion for 2007.***

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NextGenNextGen

Improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying:

Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance

Digital communications

Layered adaptive security

Weather integrated into decision-making

Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management

Net-centric information access for operations

Improvements to the air transportation system will be achieved by applying:

Space-based navigation and integrated surveillance

Digital communications

Layered adaptive security

Weather integrated into decision-making

Advanced automation of Air Traffic Management

Net-centric information access for operations

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Approach: NextGen4-D Weather Data CubeApproach: NextGen4-D Weather Data Cube

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will access:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will not be a big database, but a “system of systems” with metadata tagged, 4-dimensional, gridded weather information

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube is a ‘pathfinder’ for other service areas, not just aviation

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will access:

Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)

High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)

Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube will not be a big database, but a “system of systems” with metadata tagged, 4-dimensional, gridded weather information

NextGen 4-D Weather Data Cube is a ‘pathfinder’ for other service areas, not just aviation

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Single Authoritative SourceSingle Authoritative Source

The 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS):

Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, Military, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

FAA and NWS collaboratively determine contents of SAS subject to FAA air traffic management needs

The 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (SAS):

Is only a portion of the 4-D Weather Data Cube

Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, Military, FAA, etc.)

Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA

Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy

FAA and NWS collaboratively determine contents of SAS subject to FAA air traffic management needs

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Program AlignmentProgram Alignment

IT Services

Architecture and design

Prototype systems

Integrating existing systems

Production and deployment of systems

Enhancement of NWS infrastructure

Contents

Forecaster tools and capabilities

Model improvement and development

Aviation weather parameter generation (e.g., thunderstorms, icing, turbulence, etc.)

Verification of 4-dimensional weather data

IT Services

Architecture and design

Prototype systems

Integrating existing systems

Production and deployment of systems

Enhancement of NWS infrastructure

Contents

Forecaster tools and capabilities

Model improvement and development

Aviation weather parameter generation (e.g., thunderstorms, icing, turbulence, etc.)

Verification of 4-dimensional weather data

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Current StatusCurrent Status

Executed first formal year of program

Completed successful multi-organization Capability Evaluation in Sep 2010

Entered into acquisition in FY11 for IT infrastructure improvements

Establishing R&D for:

Single Authoritative Source

Verification techniques

Advanced forecaster tools and techniques

Higher resolution modeling

Executed first formal year of program

Completed successful multi-organization Capability Evaluation in Sep 2010

Entered into acquisition in FY11 for IT infrastructure improvements

Establishing R&D for:

Single Authoritative Source

Verification techniques

Advanced forecaster tools and techniques

Higher resolution modeling

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Challenges:Transitioning Research to Ops

Challenges:Transitioning Research to Ops

Need for basic research in fulfilling NextGen requirements is understood

Need for applied research in delivering capabilities required for NextGen is paramount

Balance of the two is key to success

Must link operational requirements to basic and applied research and vice versa

Need for basic research in fulfilling NextGen requirements is understood

Need for applied research in delivering capabilities required for NextGen is paramount

Balance of the two is key to success

Must link operational requirements to basic and applied research and vice versa

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Challenges:NWS Forecast ProcessChallenges:NWS Forecast Process

In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, NWS forecaster responsibilities will change

Some current initiatives under evaluation:

Autonowcaster – convective initiation

Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output

Real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is no longer a goal, but a necessity!

In the era of high resolution, rapidly updating models, NWS forecaster responsibilities will change

Some current initiatives under evaluation:

Autonowcaster – convective initiation

Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions or (IC4D) – nudging model output

Real progress in the last few years is the realization that change is no longer a goal, but a necessity!

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Challenges:NWS Forecast ProcessChallenges:NWS Forecast Process

NWS Regional initiative to provide gridded ceiling and visibility

Several forecast offices in the NWS Eastern Region producing TAFs completely consistent with all NDFD short term grids

Expanding to other WFOs in the Eastern and Central Region

Produces important forecast guidance for GA community where no TAF exists today

NWS Regional initiative to provide gridded ceiling and visibility

Several forecast offices in the NWS Eastern Region producing TAFs completely consistent with all NDFD short term grids

Expanding to other WFOs in the Eastern and Central Region

Produces important forecast guidance for GA community where no TAF exists today

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Challenges:Product ConsistencyChallenges:Product Consistency

A huge challenge for NWS (and the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs

Weather consumers are barraged by weather data… the easy answer is to plan for the worse

Artificial “boundaries” on products

A huge challenge for NWS (and the Private Sector) as they serve many customer needs

Weather consumers are barraged by weather data… the easy answer is to plan for the worse

Artificial “boundaries” on products

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The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:

Public:

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

Today our forecasts can send conflicting information to our customers:

Public:

This Afternoon: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Aviation:KXXX 271723Z 271818 17007KT P6SM FEW090 BKN140 FM2000 28010KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB BKN100 FM0100 32012KT P6SM SCT035 BKN100…

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The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue

Weather knows no bounds

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Challenges:Numerical Model Enhancements

Challenges:Numerical Model Enhancements

NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts

NOAA developing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution

Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away

NextGen requires much improved accuracy in thunderstorm forecasting for 2-12+h forecasts

NOAA developing High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) with 3km storm scale resolution

Transition from Rapid Refresh (RUC) to “operational” HRRR several years away

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Challenges:Probabilistic InformationChallenges:Probabilistic Information

From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…

We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty

Aviation decisions are deterministic

From the JPDO Weather ConOps: “Uncertainty in meteorological phenomena that have significant impact on system capacity is managed through the use of probabilistic forecasts. These forecasts are in a quantitative format, covering location (three-dimensional space), timing, intensity, and the probability of ALL possible outcomes…

We must work toward common definitions of words that express uncertainty

Aviation decisions are deterministic

“likely”

“I believe…”

“There is ahigh

Probability…”

“This model Indicates…”

“numerous”

30%

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Challenges:International Harmonization

Challenges:International Harmonization

Air travel is international

Transition to more automated and integrated ATM systems requires harmonized, global scale weather and weather impacts

We need continuous international coordination to ensure seamless weather information for air transportation including:

Harmonized data exchange

Agreed upon governance structure

Air travel is international

Transition to more automated and integrated ATM systems requires harmonized, global scale weather and weather impacts

We need continuous international coordination to ensure seamless weather information for air transportation including:

Harmonized data exchange

Agreed upon governance structure

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SummarySummaryFoundation established for NOAA participation in NextGen

Developing IT architecture and design for IOC

Maturing program and management processes

Establishing R&D initiatives for MOC and FOC

Foundation established for NOAA participation in NextGen

Developing IT architecture and design for IOC

Maturing program and management processes

Establishing R&D initiatives for MOC and FOC