new polls on israeli public opinion- december 2012

7/30/2019 New Polls on Israeli Public Opinion- December 2012

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New Polls on Israeli Public Opinion

December 2012

1. Machon Dahaf: Positions of the Israeli Public Regarding a Possible Peace Agreement

2. Smith Consulting: Public Poll Findings on Peace with the Palestinians


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Main Findings

A poll that was conducted on behalf of the Jerusalem Center in the week following the conclusion of the Pillar of Defenseoperation found that only a minority (between a quarter and a third) of the Israeli public trusts the ability of reaching a peaceagreement. A significant part of such lack of faith stems from the disbelief that the Palestinians will uphold the conditions ofpeace and especially those elements dealing with security.

Two polls that we have previously conducted for the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace found that whenIsraelis are presented with a peace plan that fortifies security elements, a significant majority (about two-thirds) of Israelis

say they would support such an agreement if it was brought to a referendum. It is therefore important to understand thepositions of the Israeli public following the recent developments in the Arab states and following the Pillar of Defenseoperation. The current poll is the third in a series1 of polls aimed at examining the following among the Israeli public:

A. The level of support for a peace agreement if one were reached between Israel and the Palestinians, based on thefollowing principles:

Two states: Israel the state of the Jewish people and Palestine the state of the Palestinian people.

Palestinian refugees will have a right to return only to the new state of Palestine.

The Palestinian state will be demilitarized, without an army.

Borders will be based on the 1967 lines and will include land swaps equal in size that will take into considerationIsrael's security needs and will maintain the large settlement blocs under Israeli sovereignty.

Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem will come under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestiniansovereignty.

The Old City within the walls will be without sovereignty and will be jointly administered by the United States, Israeland the Palestinians. The Holy Places will be under the same religious supervision as current arrangements (forexample, the Kotel will be under Israeli supervision and responsibility).

B. The level of support for the above-mentioned agreement if a number of additional favorable (from an Israeli viewpoint)elements would be added to it.

C. What are the main reasons that drive opposition to an agreement?D. Changes, if such occurred, during 2011 in the willingness of the public to support an agreement and the price

embedded in it.

The polls findings are based on the responses of a representative sample of Israels adult population among 500 people.Prior to being asked about the level of support/opposition for the above-mentioned peace agreement, respondents wereasked to commit to review all the questions before proceeding to the main question.

Following are the main findings:

Level of support of a peace agreement a basic model agreement that includes the six elements mentioned above,and an advanced model agreement with added elements. Data without parenthesis show findings of the current poll;(data in regular parenthesis show findings from 2011); [data in square parenthesis show findings from 2010]

Basic Agreement Basic Agreement with Additional Elements

Entire Sample Jews Arabs Entire Sample Jews Arabs

Support 67 (67) [67] 65 (65) [63] 82 (74) [85] 75 (80) [84] 73 (78) [82] 85 (74) [85]Oppose 21 (28) [29] 22 (29) [32] 13 (24) [15] 13 (15) [15] 14 (16) [17] 10 (24) [15]

Wont participate 5 6 2 5 6 2

Did not answer 7 (5) [4] 7 (6) [5] 3 (2) [--] 7 (5) [1] 7 (6) [5] 3 (2) [--]

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

1ThefirstpollwasconductedinJanuary2010.ThesecondpollwasconductedinJanuary2011.


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The findings present a stable support for an agreement among the sample in the three periods in which the polls wereconducted. The Arab sector showed decline of support in 2011 and a bounce back to 2010 levels in the current poll.

Following are the findings regarding the level of support of the various added elements: Data without parenthesis showfindings of the current poll; (data in regular parenthesis show findings from 2011); [data in square parenthesis show findingsfrom 2010]

Entire Sample Jews Arabs

Basic Agreement (6 principles) 67 (67) [67] 65 (65) [63] 82 (74) [85]The United States would guarantee Israelssecurity as a Jewish state

70 (69) [73] 68 (68) [70] 82 (74) [85]

In addition, a strong security fence will bebuilt along the border

71 (73) [77] 69 (72) [74] 85 (81) [91]

In addition, the implementation of theagreement were conditioned on thedisarming of Hamas

74 (76) [82] 73 (75) [79} 85 (88) [100]

In addition, the United States signed amutual defense treaty with Israel underwhich if needed the United States would

commit to defend Israel if attacked

74 (78) [83] 74 (77) [81] 85 (88) [100]

In addition, the Arab League will endorse theIsraeli-Palestinian peace agreement and theArab countries would commit to normalizerelations with Israel

75 (79) [84] 74 (78) [82] 85 (88) [100]

These findings demonstrate the following:

A. 41% of those who opposed the basic agreement as presented in the first question removed their opposition after beingpresented with some or all of the additional elements, making up 8.4% of the sample. Thus, the percentage of thosewho pledge support for the basic agreement with the additional elements reaches 75% (67% support for the basic

agreement with an added 8% support after the additional elements were presented).

B. The marginal gain of each additional element is as follows:

The United States would guarantee Israels security as a Jewish state 2.7%

In addition, a strong security fence will be built along the border 1.4%

In addition, the implementation of the agreement were conditioned on the disarming of Hamas 3.3%

In addition, the United States signed a mutual defense treaty with Israel under which if needed the UnitedStates would commit to defend Israel if attacked 0.4%

In addition, the Arab League will endorse the Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and the Arab countries wouldcommit to normalize relations with Israel 0.8%

C. In the Arab sector, the marginal gain summed up at 3%, but the additional elements did not lower support of anagreement.


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B. Data Analysis

Various manipulations were conducted to correct sample discrepancies according to respondents reporting of their votein the 2009 Knesset elections.

Data analysis was conducted on the entire sample, both according the voting patterns in the 2009 elections andaccording to the sector: total Jews, recent immigrants (1990s and later, henceforth termed Olim), other Jews(henceforth termed Veterans), and Arabs.


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Findings

. Positions toward a peace agreement if one were reached between Israel and the Palestinians

Interviewees were asked the following question:

If the government of Israel brought to a referendum a peace agreement that would end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, andwhose implementation would take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments with an emphasis onfighting terror, and the implementation would be monitored and verified by the United States, will you support or oppose an

agreement based on the following principles:

Two states: Israel the state of the Jewish people and Palestine the state of the Palestinian people.

Palestinian refugees will have a right to return only to the new state of Palestine.

The Palestinian state will be demilitarized, without an army.

Borders will be based on the 1967 lines and will include land swaps equal in size that will take into consideration Israel'ssecurity needs and will maintain the large settlement blocks under Israeli sovereignty.

Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem will come under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestiniansovereignty.

The Old City within the walls will be without sovereignty and will be jointly administered by the United States, Israel andthe Palestinians. The Holy Places will be under the same religious supervision as current arrangements (for example,the Kotel will be under Israeli supervision and responsibility).

To make sure that interviewees understood the principles, a question was presented in regard to each of them separately:does this principle strengthen, reduce or leave unchanged your support of a peace agreement?

Only then, interviewees were asked: If the government of Israel brought to a referendum such a peace agreement wouldyou vote for or against it?

Table 1 presents the responses.

Table 1 position of the general public regarding a peace agreement .Data without parenthesis show findings of the current poll; (data in regular parenthesis show findings from 2011); [data insquare parenthesis show findings from 2010]

A Entire sample according to population sector

Entire Sample Jews (Total) Veterans Olim ArabsSupport 67 (67) [67] 65 (65) [63] 67 (65) [65] 57 (66) [50] 82 (74) [85]

Oppose 21 (28) [29] 22 (29) [32] 22 (28) [32] 22 (33) [34] 13 (24) [15]

Wont participate 5 6 5 10 2

Did not answer 7 (5) [4] 7 (6) [5] 6 (7) [3] 11 (1) [16] 3 (2) [--]Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


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PublicPollFindings

On

PeacewiththePalestinians

December2012

RafiSmithOlgaPaniel


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Public Poll Findings Overview

Following are the findings of a public opinion poll taken between December 11-12, 2012 among 600 people as arepresentative sample of the adult population (Jews and Arabs, ages 18+) of Israel. The margin of error is 4%.

The central axis of data analysis according to socio-demographic background variables is by gender, age, religiosity,origin, income level, education, political philosophy, voting in 2009 and current voting intentions. All the analysis in thetables that is according to background variables adds up to 100% in each row.

Comparison to 2009:

Concept:Sections A-F of the concept are almost identical to those examined in two surveys carried out in the same format in 2009(May and July). In the 2009 surveys, there were two additional sections: G Freedom of access to the Holy Places forpeople of all religions will be maintained, and H There will be prohibition on digging, demolishing or construction withinthe Old City.

Additions: in 2009 there were 6 additions. Four of them are identical to those in the current survey.


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Details of Findings

Concept:If the government of Israel brought to a referendum a peace agreement that would end the Israeli-Palestinianconflict, and whose implementation would take place only after the Palestinians would fulfill all their commitments with anemphasis on fighting terror, and the implementation would be monitored and verified by the United States, will you supportor oppose an agreement based on the following principles:

A. Two states: Israel the state of the Jewish people and Palestine the state of the Palestinian people.

B. Palestinian refugees will have a right to return only to the new state of Palestine.

C. The Palestinian state will be demilitarized, without an army.

D. Borders will be based on the 1967 lines and will include land swaps equal in size that will take into considerationIsrael's security needs and will maintain the large settlement blocks under Israeli sovereignty.

E. Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem will come under Israeli sovereignty and Arab neighborhoods under Palestiniansovereignty.

F. The Old City within the walls will be without sovereignty and will be jointly administered by the United States, Israeland the Palestinians. The Holy Places will be under the same religious supervision as current arrangements (for

example, the Kotel will be under Israeli supervision and responsibility).


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Would you support or oppose this agreement?

Total

Strongly support 40%

Somewhat support 28% Somewhat oppose 8% Strongly oppose 17% No opinion 7%

By sectors:Total By Sector

Jews Arabs

Strongly + Somewhat Support 68% 66% 80%Strongly + Somewhat Oppose 25% 26% 14%

No Opinion 7% 8% 6%

Comparison to the previous surveys (Concept):December 2012 Total By Sector

Jews Arabs

Strongly +Somewhat Support 68%

66% 80%Strongly +Somewhat Oppose 25% 26% 14%No opinion 7% 8% 6%

July 2009 Total By SectorJews Arabs

Strongly + Somewhat Support 71% 69% 89%

Strongly + Somewhat Oppose 29% 31% 11%

No opinion

May 2009 Total By SectorJews Arabs


Strongly + Somewhat Oppose 37% 39% 16%

No Opinion 3% 2% 3%

2008

By SectorTotal

Jews Arabs


Strongly + Somewhat Oppose 38% 34%

No Opinion 4% 4%2007

By SectorTotal

Jews Arabs

Strongly + Somewhat Support 59% 84% 61%Strongly + Somewhat Oppose 39% 16% 38%

No Opinion 2% 1%

68%

25%


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Concept, analysis by background variables (totals 100% in each row)Strongly +SomewhatSupport

Strongly+SomewhatOppose

NoOpinion

68% 25% 7%

Gender Male 67% 26% 7%Female 70% 23% 7%

Age 18-29 61% 34% 5%30-49 66% 26% 9%

50+ 73% 19% 7%

Religiosity Haredi/orthodox 50% 41% 9%Traditional 62% 25% 13%

Secular 77% 20% 4%

Arab 80% 14% 6%

Origin (Jews only) Sabra 68% 26% 6%

Mizrachim 67% 24% 9%

Ashkenazi 64% 28% 7%

Veterans vs.immigrants

Veterans 68% 24% 8%

Immigrants from the FormerSoviet Union

44% 53% 3%

Levels of Education High school and below 65% 27% 8%

Above high school (13-14years)

70% 21% 9%

Academic )15(+ 72% 23% 5%

Income Level Below average 66% 26% 7%

average 67% 25% 8%

Above average 68% 25% 6%

Political Ideology Right 47% 43% 9%Center 73% 21% 6%Left 91% 7% 1%

2009 Vote Kadima 86% 11% 4%

Likud 51% 41% 8%

Yisrael Beytenu 53% 42% 5%

Labor 92% 4% 4%

Shas 44% 50% 6%

United Torah Judaism 59% 22% 19%National Union 29% 57% 14%

Jewish Home 47% 53% 0%

Meretz 72% 17% 11%

Current Votingintentions

Likud-Beytenu 58% 34% 8%

Labor 89% 9% 1%

Shas 58% 42% 0%

United Torah Judaism 60% 25% 15%

Jewish Home led by NaftaliBennet

47% 45% 9%

Meretz 81% 15% 4%

Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid 84% 13% 4%

The Movement led by Tzipi

Livni 86% 10% 3%Undecided 74% 14% 12%

Place of Residence 02 57% 36% 7%

03 72% 24% 5%

04 69% 22% 9%

08 53% 38% 9%

09 79% 10% 11%

The percentage of those who support the agreement is relatively high among adults over the age of 50, among the secularand the Arab sector, among those with higher levels of education, with a left wing ideology, those who voted for Kadima,Labor and Meretz in 2009 and those who will vote for Labor, Meretz, Yesh Atid "and The Movement in the January 2013elections.


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Support for the Concept with Additional Specific Conditions

Those that opposed the concept were asked:A. And if, in addition, the United States would guarantee Israels security as a Jewish state, would you then support or

oppose the agreement?

Those that still opposed after question A were asked:B. And if, in addition, a strong security fence will be built along the border, would you then support or oppose the

agreement?

Those that still opposed after question B were asked:C. And if, in addition, the implementation of the agreement were conditioned on the disarming of Hamas and ending its

control of the Gaza Strip, would you then support or oppose the agreement?

Those that still opposed after question C were asked:D. And if, in addition, the United States signed a mutual defense treaty with Israel under which if needed the United

States would commit to defend Israel if attacked, would you then support or oppose the agreement?

Those that still opposed after question D were asked:E. And if, in addition, the Arab League will endorse the Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement and the Arab countries would

commit to normalize relations with Israel, would you then support or oppose the agreement?

Note: Because the Arab sector mostly agreed to the concept in the first stage, the analysis of the remaining questions isdisplayed only for the Jewish sector, since most of the additional support came from this sector.

Following are the results:

Concept A B C D E Cumulative SupportStrongly + Somewhat Support 66% 72% 74% 76% 77% 80%

Strongly + Somewhat Oppose

26% 22% 21% 18% 17% 14%

No Opinion 8% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6%

Additional Support 6+% 2+% 2+% 1+% 3+ %


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Cumulative Support for a Peace Agreement (Jewish sector only) - by background variables (100% in each row)+ +

80% 14% 6%

GenderMale 79% 16% 5%Female 81% 13% 6%

Age 18-29 68% 25% 7%30-49 81% 12% 7%50+ 83% 12% 4%

Religiosity

Haredi/orthodox 65% 28% 7%

Traditional 80% 14% 6%

Secular 87% 8% 5%

Origin Sabra 82% 12% 6%Sephardic 81% 13% 5%Ashkenazi 77% 17% 6%

Veterans vs. Immigrants Veteran Israelis 80% 14% 6%Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union 71% 23% 6%

Levels of EducationHigh school and below 76% 16% 9%

Above high school (13-14 years) 75% 16% 9%

Academic (15+) 85% 12% 2%

Income Level

Below average 84% 12% 3%

average 77% 15% 8%

Above average 79% 15% 5%

Political Ideology Right 66% 28% 6%

Center 85% 9% 6%Left 96% 3% 1%

2009 Voting

Kadime 90% 8% 3%

Likud 73% 20% 6%

Yisrael Beytenu 74% 21% 5%

Labor 95% 2% 2%

Shas 61% 33% 6%


National Union 57% 29% 14%

The Jewish Home 65% 35% 0%

Meretz 88% 0% 12%

Current Voting Intentions

Likud-Beytenu (Joint List) 77% 19% 3%

Labor 92% 4% 4%Shas 65% 35% 0%


The Jewish Home led by Naftali Bennet 65% 26% 9%

Meretz 89% 7% 4%

Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid 87% 10% 3%

The Movement led by Tizip Livni 90% 3% 7%

Undecided 80% 9% 11%

Place of Residence02 69% 24% 7%

03 82% 15% 3%

04 84% 9% 7%

08 80% 18% 2%

09 79% 6% 15%

There is relatively high cumulative support among adults over the age of 50, secular, with higher education, with a leftistpolitical ideology, those who voted Kadima, Labor and Meretz in 2009 and among those who will vote in the January 2013elections for Labor, Meretz, "Yesh Atid" and The Movement.


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Comparison to the previous surveys cumulative support, Jewish sector:2012 July 2009 May 2009 2008 2007 2006

Support + Somewhat Support 80% 87% 85% 82% 78% 79% Oppose + Somewhat Oppose 14% 13% 14% 16% 13% No Opinion 6% 1% 2% 8%

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new polls on israeli public opinion- december 2012

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