The use of opinion polls data in the Arab Human Development Report 2016

Youth in the Arab Region: Prospects for Human Development in a Changing Reality

Jad ChaabanAmerican University of Beirut 

Team Leader, UNDP Arab Human Development Report 2016

ERF – IFI Worshop25/08/2016

AHDR 2016 key stats• Team of more than 30 persons

– 7 Chapter authors from 6 different countries + 6 co-authors– 11 Background Papers authors from 8 different countries– 2 Core Research Team members– 4 assigned researchers from UNDP-RBAS

• Data:– Gallup World Poll– World Values Survey– ILO School to Work Transition Surveys– AHDR Arab Youth Time-Use Survey– Other macro data

• Research software:– Mendeley database, Smartsheet tool, Stata

2

AHDR Research Process

3

Consultative ProcessWritingResearch Preparatory

Stage

Key Activities

• Selecting and drafting TORs of core team

• Methodology Discussions• Selecting Youth

Consultative Groups and Advisory Board

• Core Meeting• Survey and data ToRs and

partners

Overall Report Concept and Chapter outlines

Topics and authors of background papers

Empirical and data work Survey development and

implementation Creation of research

support material

Chapters Background Papers First Draft of Overall

Report Research Meetings

Second Core Group Meeting

1st Draft compilation and submission

Youth and advisory board feedback meetings

Final Draft Editorial Activities

1 2 3 4

Jan-Feb 2014 Feb-Aug 2014 Feb- Aug 2014 May-Dec 2014

Main message

• A comprehensive and detailed analysis of the challenges youth face in terms of the human development process. 

• It calls for bringing youth in the Arab region back into the center – politically, economically and socially – by giving them a stake in their societies

• Young Arabs could be effective agents of positive change provided their capabilities are recognized, developed and called upon.

More than 100 million young men and women (15‐29) in Arab countries30% of total population – among the highest rates in the world

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5

10

15

20

25

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Shar

e of

you

th p

opul

atio

n

Arab States

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America andCarribeanNorth America

Oceania

Evolution of the share of youth (15-24) in total population (highest in world ~ 20%)

Historical Global Youth Unemployment Rates

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2014. “Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate)”

Widening gap between the rich and the poor, with highest income inequality in the world

Evolution of average annual household income US$ PPP

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5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poorest_ArabPoorest_MICRichest_ArabRichest_MIC

Source: Arab Human Development Report 2015 (forthcoming). MIC: Middle Income Countries group

Difficulty of Acquiring Decent Accommodation:A Flat Costs >8 Years of Salary for an Individual 

Ratios of house price to income, 2011

85.1 6.4

9.412

18.3 18.4

24.8

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

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35

OECDaverage

Bahrain UAE Iraq Syria Morocco Egypt Tunisia Algeria

House prices to average annual salaries

Source: Chaaban, 2013 (AHDR research paper series: “Expanding Youth Opportunities in the Arab region”).

Values, Identities and Civic Participation

• Young Arabs experience less satisfaction and are able to exercise less control over their future than otherwise similar youth elsewhere in the world. 

• Less conservative values in recent years, including growing support for gender equality and greater civic involvement.

• Youth remain conservative in many dimensions compared with youth in countries at similar levels of development, especially on gender equality, the separation of religion and the state, social and religious tolerance, and obedience. 

Values, Identities and Civic Participation

• Opinions have changed markedly in two directions since the uprisings of 2011: one liberating and one conservative.

• There are large variations, but the region shows many commonalities, as demonstrated most dramatically by the rapid spread of fresh political ideas emanating from the uprisings. 

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Before Arab up

risings

After Arab uprisings

Youth TotalGallup

0.4

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0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2000 2008 2013

By cohorts

Jordan youth Morocco youth Egypt youth

Iraq youth Arab countries youth MIC youth excludingAMIC youth

Jordan 50+ Morocco 50+ Egypt 50+

Iraq 50+ Arab countries 50+ MIC 50+ excludingAMIC 50+

WVS